Tuesday marks the beginning of the end for the 2010-2011 NBA Season. And, the team that made the most news to start off the season will be there to finish it. The much-maligned Miami Heat took a lot of, well, heat, for the manner in which they teamed up three All-Stars and celebrated on the streets of Miami before ever playing a single game together. Nevertheless, through all the ups and downs, the Miami troika will be playing longer than any team. Any team other than the Dallas Mavericks that is. With all the focus on the Miami Heat over the course of this past season, Dallas was essentially forgotten as a championship contender. The common thinking was that outside of Miami and the Lakers, the only other teams that could compete for the Larry O'Brien trophy were the Boston Celtics and the San Antonio Spurs. Not so.
Much like the Heat, the Mavericks faced a rather rocky regular season. They posted two double-digit winning streaks, and three losings streaks of three games or more. Their star, Dirk Nowitzki, was injured, and the team suffered mightily in his absence. The lost their starting small forward, Caron Butler, for the season on New Years Day (not exactly the best way to celebrate the New Year) and speedster Roddy Beaubois was lost for the playoffs months after that. Nevertheless, some savvy free agency moves - namely trading for Tyson Chandler and signing aging sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic - have kept the Mavericks moving forward. They beat the Trail Blazers when many - including this writer - predicted they would fail. They swept the defending champion Lakers in a fashion no one thought fathomable. And then, they outlasted, outsmarted, and outclassed the young Oklahoma City Thunder in a fantastic five-game series. Through it all, the Mavericks, like the Heat, have relied on staying within themselves, playing their game, and patience.
But, while both teams have been patient, the Mavericks do not have the luxury of being patient much longer. With the core of their team (Nowitzki, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Butler and Stojakovic) all entering the twilight of their respective careers, this series likely represents their last chance at winning that elusive ring.
On paper two things are clear, the Miami Heat have two of the three best players in the series (Wade and James) - and quite possibly the fourth best too (Bosh) - and the Mavericks have a much deeper bench than the Heat. Additionally, a few more things are apparent: the Heat will attempt to shred the Heat on the wings, and the Mavericks will rely heavily on their hot outside shooting to keep them rolling. What is less evident is which of the two versions of each team will show up.
The Heat, like the Mavericks, have been playing their best basketball since the playoffs began. Like the Mavericks, they have been able to withstand late rallies from formidable teams, and have been able to do what many of their doubters said they could not do all season: close games. Like Mavericks' star Dirk Nowitzki, Heat floor general LeBron James has a lot to prove on the game's greatest stage, as he too is searching for his first championship ring.
After all the story lines are exhausted, it really boils down to the players on the hardwood, and which team is able to impose their brand of basketball. If the playoffs are any indicator, the Heat will look to keep the score in the 80s with stifling defense, while the Mavericks will look to run and shoot, hoping to generate more than 100 points. While the Heat have major advantages in Wade and James, the Mavericks have Nowitzki - who is playing the best basketball of his career - and countless other players who outmatch their opponent. With that in mind, I will examine the individual match-ups and make my prediction.
Point Guard
While Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers have made it this far, able to quiet down lead guards Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose enough to advance, they will not be able to keep up with Jason Kidd's smarts, cunning, and ability to manage a game. While the old-Bear may have lost a step on both ends of the court, he is still incredibly effective at making timely plays, hitting three pointers, and setting up his teammates. His backup, JJ Barea, could also spell trouble for the Heat, as outside of their star wing players, they lack the speed to keep up with the little man from Puerto Rico.
Advantage: Mavericks
Shooting Guard
Dywane Wade is clearly a better player than both DeShawn Stevenson and Jason Terry and the advantage will go to the Heat. Nevertheless, Stevenson and Terry bring very specials skills to the table, and if Wade is not able to shut them down on the defensive end, the Heat will have a very short run in the finals. Terry is an expert marksman, and like Kidd, a timely shooter. Conversely, Stevenson is a lock-down defender with three-point range, and a swagger that can slow Wade down a step. The Heat have nothing off the bench behind Wade, so if he gets in to any kind of foul trouble, the Heat are toast.
Advantage: Heat
Small Forward
LeBron James is clearly the best basketball player in basketball right now. Every minute that Peja Stojakovic plays will be a moment for LeBron to attack and head straight for the basket. Nevertheless, Shawn Marion brings a multi-dimensional set of skills to the game that could trouble LeBron, who has heretofore played against strong wing defenders (Iguodala, Pierce and Deng) but has yet to face one as rangy and savvy as Marion. Mike Miller could provide a spark off the bench for the Heat - as he did in Game 4 of the Chicago series - but in reality, anything the Heat get from him is "found money."
Advantage: Heat
Power Forward
Chris Bosh has proven his detractors wrong this postseason with solid games against the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls. But nothing comes close to what Dirk Nowitzki has done in the second season. He is shooting over 92% from the free throw line, and over 50% from the field and the three-point line, pouring in 28 points per game and grabbing 7.5 boards. In short, he has been perfect. Though a match-up between All-Star power forwards, this one is not even close.
Advantage: Mavericks
Center
Joel Anthony has done a terrific job on the defensive end for the Heat, and has really helped them in their pick-and-roll defense. However, having any other one of their centers on the court - Ilgauskus, Dampier or Magliore - just kills them, on both ends. Conversely, the aforementioned Tyson Chandler is having a career year, is inspiring his teammates to play better, and is protecting the paint with such fervor that is seems certain that Mark Cuban will overpay him this season. Behind Chandler, the Mavericks have Brendan Haywood, who, though not a starting-caliber player, is a tenacious defender, and another big body that can protect the rim from the forays to the basket by Wade and James.
Advantage: Mavericks
Bench
I already touched on this, but just to reiterate, the Miami Heat second unit is comprised of: Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, James Jones, Udonis Haslem and Erick Dampier. The Mavericks trot out: JJ Barea, Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Corey Brewer and Brendan Haywood. I am going to stick with Dallas on this one.
Advantage: Mavericks
X-Factor
For the Mavericks, it's Shawn Marion. No one expects him to stop LeBron James, but if he can make it difficult for him to score and can provide some scoring of his own, he will have done his job admirably. For the Heat, it's Udonis Haslem. After a gutsy series against the Bulls, it remains to be seen what more he can do, and what he can provide, for the Miami Heat.
Advantage: Mavericks
Prediction
The pundits - and certainly those who get paid to do what I do for free - are picking the Heat. Miami's overwhelming advantage in terms of athleticism seems to be what most experts are keying in on. Nevertheless, I think this is Dallas' year. They already beat the defending champs in an embarrassing sweep, and I just sense that Dirk wants this more than anything else out there. As such, I am picking the Mavericks to win the NBA Finals.
Pick: Mavericks in 6
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
What Can Brown Do For You?
Today's news that the Los Angeles Lakers hired former Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown to succeed Phil Jackson came as a surprise to some. But for those of us that follow the game and understand the needs of the various teams in the Association, the Lakers could not have found a more appropriate replacement for the Zen Master. While Phil Jackson is undoubtedly the greatest coach in professional basketball - if not professional sports - he was understandably tired of coaching, and given the Lakers' collapse down the stretch in the playoffs, he was being tuned out by his players. As such, the hope seems to be that Mike Brown can infuse the veteran Lakers with new energy.
It is no secret that what Mike Brown does well is defense. Over five seasons in Cleveland, Brown won 272 games and lost 138, and much of this was due to the fact that the Cavaliers were consistently in the top-7 in defensive efficiency. He helped develop LeBron James from a rather poor defender in to one of the premier wing stoppers in the NBA. Additionally, he made lemonade out of lemons. Aside from James, one can argue that Brown's second best player over the five years in Cleveland was Mo Williams or Anderson Varejao.
With that in mind, it is certainly going to be interesting to see how he fares at the helm of a Lakers roster that boasts four bona fide studs (Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Bynum) who can either create their own offense or finish strong inside. I expect to see him maximize their defensive abilities - particularly pushing Gasol to "get at it" on that end - and help them shore up the weaknesses that were exposed against the New Orleans Hornets and even more so against the Dallas Mavericks. Specifically, look for Brown to change up the defensive schemes that Jackson had put in place. Under Jackson the Lakers were fantastic at defending the 3-point line - at least in the regular season - and terrible at defending against long two-pointers and the pick-and-roll.
The big knock on Brown has always been that he does not seem to have much of a knack for coaching on the offensive end. Nevertheless, his teams in Cleveland the past few years were actually marginally more efficient on the offensive end than those teams in Los Angeles (never mind the fact that he did not end the season sporting gaudy jewelery as the Lakers did.) Still, offense is something that a strong assistant can bring to the table. Defense is a state of mind, and the backbone behind a team remodel. We saw that in 2008 when Kevin Garnett teamed up with the Celtics and bought in to the Tom Thibodeau defensive scheme, and this year we have seen it both in Chicago under now head coach Thibodeau and in Miami under Erik Spoelstra.
At the end of the day, the Lakers got the best coach out there. There were some unproven coaches (Brian Shaw and Chuck Person to name a few) who might have made sense from a continuity perspective. And then there were some veteran managers (Larry Brown and Rick Adelman) who likely would have been more about signing a big name rather than signing the right name. The Lakers landed a young coach (Brown is 41) and a proven coach (he was the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year and led the Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals). But most importantly, the Lakers snared a coach who is successful enough to not be overwhelmed by the man he is replacing, and humble enough to understand his place in it all.
It is no secret that what Mike Brown does well is defense. Over five seasons in Cleveland, Brown won 272 games and lost 138, and much of this was due to the fact that the Cavaliers were consistently in the top-7 in defensive efficiency. He helped develop LeBron James from a rather poor defender in to one of the premier wing stoppers in the NBA. Additionally, he made lemonade out of lemons. Aside from James, one can argue that Brown's second best player over the five years in Cleveland was Mo Williams or Anderson Varejao.
With that in mind, it is certainly going to be interesting to see how he fares at the helm of a Lakers roster that boasts four bona fide studs (Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Bynum) who can either create their own offense or finish strong inside. I expect to see him maximize their defensive abilities - particularly pushing Gasol to "get at it" on that end - and help them shore up the weaknesses that were exposed against the New Orleans Hornets and even more so against the Dallas Mavericks. Specifically, look for Brown to change up the defensive schemes that Jackson had put in place. Under Jackson the Lakers were fantastic at defending the 3-point line - at least in the regular season - and terrible at defending against long two-pointers and the pick-and-roll.
The big knock on Brown has always been that he does not seem to have much of a knack for coaching on the offensive end. Nevertheless, his teams in Cleveland the past few years were actually marginally more efficient on the offensive end than those teams in Los Angeles (never mind the fact that he did not end the season sporting gaudy jewelery as the Lakers did.) Still, offense is something that a strong assistant can bring to the table. Defense is a state of mind, and the backbone behind a team remodel. We saw that in 2008 when Kevin Garnett teamed up with the Celtics and bought in to the Tom Thibodeau defensive scheme, and this year we have seen it both in Chicago under now head coach Thibodeau and in Miami under Erik Spoelstra.
At the end of the day, the Lakers got the best coach out there. There were some unproven coaches (Brian Shaw and Chuck Person to name a few) who might have made sense from a continuity perspective. And then there were some veteran managers (Larry Brown and Rick Adelman) who likely would have been more about signing a big name rather than signing the right name. The Lakers landed a young coach (Brown is 41) and a proven coach (he was the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year and led the Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals). But most importantly, the Lakers snared a coach who is successful enough to not be overwhelmed by the man he is replacing, and humble enough to understand his place in it all.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Playoffs???
It has been a while since I posted anything, and I completely dropped the ball on my initial playoff predictions. Thankfully, every team I thought would advance did, with the exception of the Orlando Magic, who really pissed the bed against the Atlanta Hawks (and yes, I did think the Memphis Grizzlies would upset the San Antonio Spurs!) With that said, I am only making my picks for the Conference Semifinals, as it would be foolhardy to pick the ensuing rounds, particularly given some of the upsets that have occurred to this point.
Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Bulls in 5
Had Kirk Hinrich been ready to go for this series, I truly believe the Hawks could have pushed the Bulls to six or seven games. Without him, the Hawks simply do not have the defensive personnel to contain Derrick Rose, and that is the key to this series. The Hawks big men (Josh Smith, Al Horford, and their pu-pu platter of centers) should be able to get theirs against the Bulls (particularly if they go at Boozer, who has looked very soft of late) but the Hawks will likely shoot their way out of many games, just as they shot their way in to many games in the previous round. I expect the Bulls to win a few of these games in dramatic fashion, and the others will likely be blowouts.
Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics
Pick: Celtics in 7
I am bucking what has become the common line of thinking recently in picking the Boston Celtics. Sure, they have looked pretty pedestrian since trading Kendrick Perkins. Yes, the big-three are all beginning to show their age. And yes, Rondo is a liability on offense in the half court. Having said that, their is something about the Boston defense that really messes with the Miami players. Wade shot under 30% against the Celtics this season, LeBron's isolation-offense plays right in to the hands of the Celtics' strong-side defensive schemes, and Bosh should be neutralized by KG's aggressive - and often times offensive - brand of defense and heckling. In the end, Rondo is the key to this series. If he is able to get the Celtics running, and make their offense move more in the open court than in the half court, the Celtics should be able to win this series. Additionally, if he can put some of those gaudy stat-lines we had grown accustomed to from him, he should be able to do just enough to get Boston back to the Conference Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Thunder in 7
First and foremost, I think we can all agree that the Memphis Grizzlies are far and away the "crunkest" team to ever make it this far in the NBA Playoffs. They play with a swagger and a chip on their shoulder unseen in the NBA for a long time. Their defensive intensity (they led the league in steals per game this season) allows them to foil some of the best offensive schemes, and their strength inside - anchored by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol - is unparalleled outside of Los Angeles. The Grizz should have the ability to put lock down defenders on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant with Tony Allen and Shane Battier respectively drawing the assignments. Nevertheless, unless one of the teams is incredibly cohesive - a la the Boston Celtics - it is always safe to take the team with the best player to win the series. Kevin Durant is the best player in this series and he should be able to get his and the other Thunder players should be able to do enough to get them one step closer to a possible rematch of last year's first round series with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers v. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Lakers in 6
I am always weary of the Lakers falling asleep and taking their foot off the gas, but I just don't see the Mavericks being able to beat LA four times. The point guard match-up is not that much of an advantage for the Mavericks, as Jason Kidd as regressed enough that the Lakers can match up with Derek Fisher. Kobe is likely going to obliterate whomever defends him (DeShawn Stevenson, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, whomever). Ron Artest should be able to pester Marion and at times Nowitzki enough that his minutes are worthwhile, and the Lakers will likely own the paint with their twin towers. A lot will come down to who plays better off the bench, Lamar Odom, or Jason Terry. Terry is a gamer, and has always hit timely shots for the Mavericks, but Odom is the more versatile player, and the better defender and rebounder, and at this stage in the season, championships are won with defense and rebounding. I think the Lakers will be thrown off at times by the Mavericks' use of the zone, but they should prevail after a hiccup or two and be able to return to the Conference Finals for the fourth consecutive season.
Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Bulls in 5
Had Kirk Hinrich been ready to go for this series, I truly believe the Hawks could have pushed the Bulls to six or seven games. Without him, the Hawks simply do not have the defensive personnel to contain Derrick Rose, and that is the key to this series. The Hawks big men (Josh Smith, Al Horford, and their pu-pu platter of centers) should be able to get theirs against the Bulls (particularly if they go at Boozer, who has looked very soft of late) but the Hawks will likely shoot their way out of many games, just as they shot their way in to many games in the previous round. I expect the Bulls to win a few of these games in dramatic fashion, and the others will likely be blowouts.
Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics
Pick: Celtics in 7
I am bucking what has become the common line of thinking recently in picking the Boston Celtics. Sure, they have looked pretty pedestrian since trading Kendrick Perkins. Yes, the big-three are all beginning to show their age. And yes, Rondo is a liability on offense in the half court. Having said that, their is something about the Boston defense that really messes with the Miami players. Wade shot under 30% against the Celtics this season, LeBron's isolation-offense plays right in to the hands of the Celtics' strong-side defensive schemes, and Bosh should be neutralized by KG's aggressive - and often times offensive - brand of defense and heckling. In the end, Rondo is the key to this series. If he is able to get the Celtics running, and make their offense move more in the open court than in the half court, the Celtics should be able to win this series. Additionally, if he can put some of those gaudy stat-lines we had grown accustomed to from him, he should be able to do just enough to get Boston back to the Conference Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Thunder in 7
First and foremost, I think we can all agree that the Memphis Grizzlies are far and away the "crunkest" team to ever make it this far in the NBA Playoffs. They play with a swagger and a chip on their shoulder unseen in the NBA for a long time. Their defensive intensity (they led the league in steals per game this season) allows them to foil some of the best offensive schemes, and their strength inside - anchored by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol - is unparalleled outside of Los Angeles. The Grizz should have the ability to put lock down defenders on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant with Tony Allen and Shane Battier respectively drawing the assignments. Nevertheless, unless one of the teams is incredibly cohesive - a la the Boston Celtics - it is always safe to take the team with the best player to win the series. Kevin Durant is the best player in this series and he should be able to get his and the other Thunder players should be able to do enough to get them one step closer to a possible rematch of last year's first round series with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers v. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Lakers in 6
I am always weary of the Lakers falling asleep and taking their foot off the gas, but I just don't see the Mavericks being able to beat LA four times. The point guard match-up is not that much of an advantage for the Mavericks, as Jason Kidd as regressed enough that the Lakers can match up with Derek Fisher. Kobe is likely going to obliterate whomever defends him (DeShawn Stevenson, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, whomever). Ron Artest should be able to pester Marion and at times Nowitzki enough that his minutes are worthwhile, and the Lakers will likely own the paint with their twin towers. A lot will come down to who plays better off the bench, Lamar Odom, or Jason Terry. Terry is a gamer, and has always hit timely shots for the Mavericks, but Odom is the more versatile player, and the better defender and rebounder, and at this stage in the season, championships are won with defense and rebounding. I think the Lakers will be thrown off at times by the Mavericks' use of the zone, but they should prevail after a hiccup or two and be able to return to the Conference Finals for the fourth consecutive season.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Regular Season Awards
With roughly ten games to go in the 2010-2011 NBA Season, it is about time to start handing out some awards. So, without further adieu, I present to you my picks for MVP, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year, and my First, Second and Third Team All-NBA as Well as First Team All-Defense...
MVP
Derrick Rose. There is certainly a case to be made for LeBron James (arguably the best player in the NBA right now) and Dwight Howard (without whom the Orlando Magic would be a lottery-bound franchise), but my vote goes to Rose. Aside from posting some gaudy stats (24.8 ppg., 7.8 apg., 4.2 rpg.) he has also guided his team to the best record in the top-heavy Eastern Conference and helped the Bulls weather the storm through long-term injury issues to their big man duo of Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Without Rose, the Bulls would be a 38-win team. With him, they are tops in the Eastern Conference, poised to make a deep run in the playoffs, and well positioned for the next decade.
Coach of the Year
Doug Collins. Right now Tom Thibodeau is the trendy pick. After all, his Chicago Bulls currently sport the second best record in the NBA. Additionally, the Bulls have shown a commitment to defense last seen by the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics championship team. However, Collins gets the nod from me. After a brutal start to the season, Collins made the necessary adjustments to set the 76ers up for success, this season and in the future. He has gotten the most out of limited role players like Jodie Meeks, has made a star out of second-year guard Jrue Holiday, and has revitalized the woebegone careers of both Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. His club is probably the most dangerous lower-seeded playoff team this year, and I believe they have the potential to be a 50-win franchise next season.
Sixth Man of the Year
Lamar Odom. I really see this as a two man race between Jason Terry and Lamar Odom. Many detractors will argue that Odom is not really the sixth man for the Los Angeles Lakers because he has started so many games for them this season. True. But, much like Terry, he also finishes them. Los Angeles is at their best when they start Bynum and bring Odom off the bench. Additionally, Odom has improved nearly every facet of his game this season, combining his brilliant passing skills with a now-deadly jump shot. His defense is top notch, he brings a swagger the Lakers' desperately need, and he has been one of the linchpins of the NBA's hottest team right now.
Most Improved Player
LaMarcus Aldridge. Kudos to Kevin Love for breaking Moses Malone's record double-double streak, but this award belongs to Aldridge. Asked to play out of position all season, Aldridge has become one of the league's best centers. Yes, you read that right, Aldridge is now a center. He combines terrific post moves with a killer jump shot, and has carried the Blazers on his back ever since injuries ravaged their season earlier this year.
Defensive Player of the Year
Dwight Howard. Aside from his blocks and rebounds, Dwight Howard changes so many shots that much of what he does on the defensive end of the court cannot be quantified. What I find most impressive about Howard's defensive impact is that he brings it every night. The guy might not be an offensive prodigy (yet) but he always brings the intensity on defense.
First Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Derrick Rose
Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant
Small Forward: LeBron James
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki
Center: Dwight Howard
Second Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Chris Paul
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade
Small Forward: Kevin Durant
Power Forward: Amare Stoudemire
Center: Pau Gasol
Third Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward:Paul Pierce
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: LaMarcus Aldridge
First Team All-Defense
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward: Tony Allen
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: Dwight Howard
MVP
Derrick Rose. There is certainly a case to be made for LeBron James (arguably the best player in the NBA right now) and Dwight Howard (without whom the Orlando Magic would be a lottery-bound franchise), but my vote goes to Rose. Aside from posting some gaudy stats (24.8 ppg., 7.8 apg., 4.2 rpg.) he has also guided his team to the best record in the top-heavy Eastern Conference and helped the Bulls weather the storm through long-term injury issues to their big man duo of Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Without Rose, the Bulls would be a 38-win team. With him, they are tops in the Eastern Conference, poised to make a deep run in the playoffs, and well positioned for the next decade.
Coach of the Year
Doug Collins. Right now Tom Thibodeau is the trendy pick. After all, his Chicago Bulls currently sport the second best record in the NBA. Additionally, the Bulls have shown a commitment to defense last seen by the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics championship team. However, Collins gets the nod from me. After a brutal start to the season, Collins made the necessary adjustments to set the 76ers up for success, this season and in the future. He has gotten the most out of limited role players like Jodie Meeks, has made a star out of second-year guard Jrue Holiday, and has revitalized the woebegone careers of both Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. His club is probably the most dangerous lower-seeded playoff team this year, and I believe they have the potential to be a 50-win franchise next season.
Sixth Man of the Year
Lamar Odom. I really see this as a two man race between Jason Terry and Lamar Odom. Many detractors will argue that Odom is not really the sixth man for the Los Angeles Lakers because he has started so many games for them this season. True. But, much like Terry, he also finishes them. Los Angeles is at their best when they start Bynum and bring Odom off the bench. Additionally, Odom has improved nearly every facet of his game this season, combining his brilliant passing skills with a now-deadly jump shot. His defense is top notch, he brings a swagger the Lakers' desperately need, and he has been one of the linchpins of the NBA's hottest team right now.
Most Improved Player
LaMarcus Aldridge. Kudos to Kevin Love for breaking Moses Malone's record double-double streak, but this award belongs to Aldridge. Asked to play out of position all season, Aldridge has become one of the league's best centers. Yes, you read that right, Aldridge is now a center. He combines terrific post moves with a killer jump shot, and has carried the Blazers on his back ever since injuries ravaged their season earlier this year.
Defensive Player of the Year
Dwight Howard. Aside from his blocks and rebounds, Dwight Howard changes so many shots that much of what he does on the defensive end of the court cannot be quantified. What I find most impressive about Howard's defensive impact is that he brings it every night. The guy might not be an offensive prodigy (yet) but he always brings the intensity on defense.
First Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Derrick Rose
Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant
Small Forward: LeBron James
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki
Center: Dwight Howard
Second Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Chris Paul
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade
Small Forward: Kevin Durant
Power Forward: Amare Stoudemire
Center: Pau Gasol
Third Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward:Paul Pierce
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: LaMarcus Aldridge
First Team All-Defense
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward: Tony Allen
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: Dwight Howard
Friday, March 4, 2011
Contracting the NBA
For years now we have heard calls that the NBA should be contracted. Many clamor that there are too many teams, that the talent pool is too widely dispersed, and that the league has teams in remote outposts that cannot support a professional sports franchise. Lately, we have heard people within NBA circles make such statements. Earlier this season, LeBron James posted a comment on his twitter feed suggesting that the NBA should contract. So, the question remains, is this a good idea, and if so, what would the NBA look like?
Those pushing for contraction tend to rest their argument on the aforementioned premise that talent is too widely dispersed in the NBA. I would counter that this is simply not the case, as, with the influx of recent talent from the past five drafts, the Association is experiencing a renaissance of sorts. In fact, it is hard to think of many NBA teams that do not have a "franchise" guy. Additionally, the notion that there are too many NBA teams is a bit outdated. Our country has grown exponentially since the NBA was first established 60 years ago. During that time there have also been massive populations shifts in terms of where people reside in this country (now more than ever people live in cities, and we have seen population booms in the South and throughout the Western United States for 20 years now.) Perhaps the strongest argument for contracting the number of teams is two-fold; certain cities cannot support a team, and parity is a good thing.
Beginning with the first part of that argument, it is true, there are certain cities that simply cannot support a team. I harped on this in my last post, but New Orleans, and Charlotte, are two cities that seemingly cannot deal with having more than one professional sports franchise. The Jazz failed in New Orleans, and have flourished in Salt Lake City. The Hornets languished in Charlotte, and are now experiencing the same sort of fate in New Orleans, while the Bobcats have fared quite poorly in Charlotte since their inception. The argument then must be carried through to its logical progression; because certain cities have failed to support a team, they should not be considered as locations for relocation of existing franchises. While I think that certain cities should be considered off limits for NBA franchises in the near future, it is hard to say that cities like Kansas City or St. Louis, both of which previously had an NBA team, should be prohibited from bringing a team like the Hornets or Kings to town, just because franchises failed there years ago. The Kansas City Kings and the St. Louis Hawks were moved long ago. Since that time, both cities have established themselves as cities capable of supporting multiple franchises. Additionally, both cities have terrific collegiate and prep-level basketball prospects which indicates a passion for the sport therein. So then, why not just relocate teams rather than taking draconian measure and eliminating them altogether?
As for the second part of that argument: parity is a good thing. To conclude that having 30 teams of equal ability is a good thing for professional basketball is fallacy. The NFL has become a "more even" league over the past ten years, and yet certain teams (namely the Patriots, Steelers and Colts) have all continued to dominate. While talent has been dispersed across the league like never before, I am not sure I can agree that it has been better for the NFL. As a San Francisco 49ers fan, I would argue that the past ten years have been terrible. For starters, my team has been horrible (to the point that I did not watch a single NFL game other than the Super Bowl between 2003 and 2007.) Beyond that though the teams I grew up watching, at least those that were continually successful (Green Bay, Dallas, Miami, etc...) have had up-and-down years, and as a casual fan of the NFL, my interest has wavered. In short, it is hard to follow a sport casually when the landscape is changing year-to-year. Those sports fans who exist on the fringe like regularity, they like to know who to follow. Not every fan of the NFL, or the NBA for that matter, is a die-hard nut like yours-truly, most are sane individuals who recognize that it is just a sport.
As an addendum to the second part of that argument, I think it is also shortsighted to say that fewer teams will create parity, when it fact it seems to be strong management that keeps teams successful in an otherwise even league (as the success of New England, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis would suggest.)
Even if contraction were under consideration, the next logical question would be who to contract. Looking at attendance numbers and overall record, using the past ten years as a sample, I think the teams most likely to be put on the "chopping block," would be the New Orleans Hornets, the Charlotte Bobcats, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Sacramento Kings. While the Los Angeles Clippers would certainly make any one's short list of franchises that need to go, they continually make money, they have a bright future with their young core of players, and they play in a market that has shown itself capable of supporting two NBA teams.
After contraction, there would be a dispersal draft, wherein the players from those four teams would be drafted by the remaining 26 teams. The remaining teams would likely select those players in inverse order of how they finished that season. In reality, it would be more fair to use their aggregate winning percentage over the previous five to ten seasons to determine the order, but nevertheless, that's small potatoes. The draft would probably go something like this: Cleveland (Chris Paul), Minnesota (Rudy Gay), Washington (David West), Toronto (Zach Randolph), Clippers (Tyreke Evans), New Jersey (DeMarcus Cousins), Golden State (Marc Gasol), Detroit (Emeka Okafor), Houston (Mike Conley), Milwaukee (OJ Mayo), Utah (Stephen Jackson), Phoenix (Tyrus Thomas), Indiana (Carl Landry), Philadelphia (Shane Battier), New York (DJ Augustin), Portland (Samuel Dalembert), Denver (Tony Allen), Atlanta (Gerald Henderson), Oklahoma City (Jason Thompson), Orlando (Darrell Arthur), Lakers (Trevor Ariza), Chicago (Marcus Thornton), Miami (Xavier Henry), Dallas (Sam Young), Boston (Omri Casspi), San Antonio (Donte Green). Now certainly, this could vary, I am just basing this on the talent available, and then considering the needs of every team.
The 26 teams that got at least one new player would undoubtedly be aided by that player's presence. But, the addition of one player might not help that many teams (even with Chris Paul, would the Cavaliers be any good?) The idea is that adding these players, particularly the stronger players to rather moribund franchises (cough, Minnesota, cough) would speed up the rebuilding process in those cities. Nevertheless, gerrymandering the league's talent to compensate for poor management decisions is not the way to make a team better.
In the end, the strongest case for contraction, at least the only one I can make without lying to myself, is that some cities just cannot support a team. If that remains the case in towns like New Orleans, Memphis, Sacramento, and Charlotte, then yes, the league should consider either gutting those teams and selling off the parts, or perhaps think more prudently and relocate those franchises to cities that are dying to have the hardwood heroes in their town.
Those pushing for contraction tend to rest their argument on the aforementioned premise that talent is too widely dispersed in the NBA. I would counter that this is simply not the case, as, with the influx of recent talent from the past five drafts, the Association is experiencing a renaissance of sorts. In fact, it is hard to think of many NBA teams that do not have a "franchise" guy. Additionally, the notion that there are too many NBA teams is a bit outdated. Our country has grown exponentially since the NBA was first established 60 years ago. During that time there have also been massive populations shifts in terms of where people reside in this country (now more than ever people live in cities, and we have seen population booms in the South and throughout the Western United States for 20 years now.) Perhaps the strongest argument for contracting the number of teams is two-fold; certain cities cannot support a team, and parity is a good thing.
Beginning with the first part of that argument, it is true, there are certain cities that simply cannot support a team. I harped on this in my last post, but New Orleans, and Charlotte, are two cities that seemingly cannot deal with having more than one professional sports franchise. The Jazz failed in New Orleans, and have flourished in Salt Lake City. The Hornets languished in Charlotte, and are now experiencing the same sort of fate in New Orleans, while the Bobcats have fared quite poorly in Charlotte since their inception. The argument then must be carried through to its logical progression; because certain cities have failed to support a team, they should not be considered as locations for relocation of existing franchises. While I think that certain cities should be considered off limits for NBA franchises in the near future, it is hard to say that cities like Kansas City or St. Louis, both of which previously had an NBA team, should be prohibited from bringing a team like the Hornets or Kings to town, just because franchises failed there years ago. The Kansas City Kings and the St. Louis Hawks were moved long ago. Since that time, both cities have established themselves as cities capable of supporting multiple franchises. Additionally, both cities have terrific collegiate and prep-level basketball prospects which indicates a passion for the sport therein. So then, why not just relocate teams rather than taking draconian measure and eliminating them altogether?
As for the second part of that argument: parity is a good thing. To conclude that having 30 teams of equal ability is a good thing for professional basketball is fallacy. The NFL has become a "more even" league over the past ten years, and yet certain teams (namely the Patriots, Steelers and Colts) have all continued to dominate. While talent has been dispersed across the league like never before, I am not sure I can agree that it has been better for the NFL. As a San Francisco 49ers fan, I would argue that the past ten years have been terrible. For starters, my team has been horrible (to the point that I did not watch a single NFL game other than the Super Bowl between 2003 and 2007.) Beyond that though the teams I grew up watching, at least those that were continually successful (Green Bay, Dallas, Miami, etc...) have had up-and-down years, and as a casual fan of the NFL, my interest has wavered. In short, it is hard to follow a sport casually when the landscape is changing year-to-year. Those sports fans who exist on the fringe like regularity, they like to know who to follow. Not every fan of the NFL, or the NBA for that matter, is a die-hard nut like yours-truly, most are sane individuals who recognize that it is just a sport.
As an addendum to the second part of that argument, I think it is also shortsighted to say that fewer teams will create parity, when it fact it seems to be strong management that keeps teams successful in an otherwise even league (as the success of New England, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis would suggest.)
Even if contraction were under consideration, the next logical question would be who to contract. Looking at attendance numbers and overall record, using the past ten years as a sample, I think the teams most likely to be put on the "chopping block," would be the New Orleans Hornets, the Charlotte Bobcats, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Sacramento Kings. While the Los Angeles Clippers would certainly make any one's short list of franchises that need to go, they continually make money, they have a bright future with their young core of players, and they play in a market that has shown itself capable of supporting two NBA teams.
After contraction, there would be a dispersal draft, wherein the players from those four teams would be drafted by the remaining 26 teams. The remaining teams would likely select those players in inverse order of how they finished that season. In reality, it would be more fair to use their aggregate winning percentage over the previous five to ten seasons to determine the order, but nevertheless, that's small potatoes. The draft would probably go something like this: Cleveland (Chris Paul), Minnesota (Rudy Gay), Washington (David West), Toronto (Zach Randolph), Clippers (Tyreke Evans), New Jersey (DeMarcus Cousins), Golden State (Marc Gasol), Detroit (Emeka Okafor), Houston (Mike Conley), Milwaukee (OJ Mayo), Utah (Stephen Jackson), Phoenix (Tyrus Thomas), Indiana (Carl Landry), Philadelphia (Shane Battier), New York (DJ Augustin), Portland (Samuel Dalembert), Denver (Tony Allen), Atlanta (Gerald Henderson), Oklahoma City (Jason Thompson), Orlando (Darrell Arthur), Lakers (Trevor Ariza), Chicago (Marcus Thornton), Miami (Xavier Henry), Dallas (Sam Young), Boston (Omri Casspi), San Antonio (Donte Green). Now certainly, this could vary, I am just basing this on the talent available, and then considering the needs of every team.
The 26 teams that got at least one new player would undoubtedly be aided by that player's presence. But, the addition of one player might not help that many teams (even with Chris Paul, would the Cavaliers be any good?) The idea is that adding these players, particularly the stronger players to rather moribund franchises (cough, Minnesota, cough) would speed up the rebuilding process in those cities. Nevertheless, gerrymandering the league's talent to compensate for poor management decisions is not the way to make a team better.
In the end, the strongest case for contraction, at least the only one I can make without lying to myself, is that some cities just cannot support a team. If that remains the case in towns like New Orleans, Memphis, Sacramento, and Charlotte, then yes, the league should consider either gutting those teams and selling off the parts, or perhaps think more prudently and relocate those franchises to cities that are dying to have the hardwood heroes in their town.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
The NBA is America
In case you didn't read about it earlier in the week, the New Orleans Hornets traded second year guard Marcus Thornton and cash to the Sacramento Kings for forward Carl Landry. While the trade might have ramifications on the hardwood - Landry is a tough banger down low, and is the exact type of player that will maximize his potential playing with a visionary point guard like Chris Paul - the effects off the court carry far greater weight.
In my opinion, Mark Cuban was right to blast the deal this week, when he stated that it was ludicrous that a team that is currently owned by the other 29 NBA owners was allowed to take on payroll. While the bottom line for Cuban might be relatively small (we are talking about less than $100,000 for a guy who probably tips that much at a steak house) the ramifications of this deal are very telling about the mindset of the NBA.
To put it bluntly, the New Orleans Hornets are a failed franchise. Technically, this is the second time they have failed, as they left Charlotte with their tail between their legs (and if you really want to know what I think about some of these franchises, just ask me about the Charlotte Bobcats.) New Orleans is a city that does not have a lot of people with the disposable income necessary to support an NBA franchise. Their attendance is worse than the Seattle Supersonics experienced prior to their team being hijacked to Oklahoma City, yet the Hornets are allowed to exist in receivership. In my opinion, the only reason the Hornets still exist is because the NBA - read: David Stern - is terrified of the backlash of leaving a city that continues to get pounded by disasters, natural and man-made.
What we have here is a form of socialism. And, frankly, this is nothing new for the NBA, or America. When the economy went in to the tank a few years back, our government decided to bail out the banks and the auto industry, and to essentially take over many of these corporations as the majority shareholder. When George Shinn could not find a buyer for the Hornets last fall, the NBA owners approved David Stern's idea to take control of the franchise. Since then, owners like Mark Cuban have held a 1/29th share of the franchise.
And, while this week's decision by the Hornets to take on salary - thereby incurring further costs that others will have to pay - was offensive to those of us who believe that a business should succeed and fail on its own, this was far less abhorrent than what our government allowed. When the U.S. Government essentially took over Wall Street, they should have made it clear to those who got us in this mess (by which I mean the executives who prospered off of their own bad decisions) that the "fat times" were over and that they would no longer stand for the type of bonuses that these businessmen were paying themselves.
Of course what followed was exactly what those of us right-minded individuals feared the most. The banks went right back to business as usual. In 2010, executives at the Wall Street's biggest banks made more money than ever before. And the middle class continues to take it on the chin. All because our government failed to stand up for the other 29 owners of these banks, the American people.
While I agree with Mark Cuban - and to a greater extent Lakers coach Phil Jackson, who questioned how the Hornets are going to make personnel decisions moving forward - I cannot sympathize with them that much, as this is really no different than the example set by our very own government. The difference however is that while Mark Cuban complains about pocket change for him, the American people continue to get dumped on, by large companies and our own government.
In my opinion, Mark Cuban was right to blast the deal this week, when he stated that it was ludicrous that a team that is currently owned by the other 29 NBA owners was allowed to take on payroll. While the bottom line for Cuban might be relatively small (we are talking about less than $100,000 for a guy who probably tips that much at a steak house) the ramifications of this deal are very telling about the mindset of the NBA.
To put it bluntly, the New Orleans Hornets are a failed franchise. Technically, this is the second time they have failed, as they left Charlotte with their tail between their legs (and if you really want to know what I think about some of these franchises, just ask me about the Charlotte Bobcats.) New Orleans is a city that does not have a lot of people with the disposable income necessary to support an NBA franchise. Their attendance is worse than the Seattle Supersonics experienced prior to their team being hijacked to Oklahoma City, yet the Hornets are allowed to exist in receivership. In my opinion, the only reason the Hornets still exist is because the NBA - read: David Stern - is terrified of the backlash of leaving a city that continues to get pounded by disasters, natural and man-made.
What we have here is a form of socialism. And, frankly, this is nothing new for the NBA, or America. When the economy went in to the tank a few years back, our government decided to bail out the banks and the auto industry, and to essentially take over many of these corporations as the majority shareholder. When George Shinn could not find a buyer for the Hornets last fall, the NBA owners approved David Stern's idea to take control of the franchise. Since then, owners like Mark Cuban have held a 1/29th share of the franchise.
And, while this week's decision by the Hornets to take on salary - thereby incurring further costs that others will have to pay - was offensive to those of us who believe that a business should succeed and fail on its own, this was far less abhorrent than what our government allowed. When the U.S. Government essentially took over Wall Street, they should have made it clear to those who got us in this mess (by which I mean the executives who prospered off of their own bad decisions) that the "fat times" were over and that they would no longer stand for the type of bonuses that these businessmen were paying themselves.
Of course what followed was exactly what those of us right-minded individuals feared the most. The banks went right back to business as usual. In 2010, executives at the Wall Street's biggest banks made more money than ever before. And the middle class continues to take it on the chin. All because our government failed to stand up for the other 29 owners of these banks, the American people.
While I agree with Mark Cuban - and to a greater extent Lakers coach Phil Jackson, who questioned how the Hornets are going to make personnel decisions moving forward - I cannot sympathize with them that much, as this is really no different than the example set by our very own government. The difference however is that while Mark Cuban complains about pocket change for him, the American people continue to get dumped on, by large companies and our own government.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Trades That Make Sense (or at least I think so...)
One of my favorite things to do with my friends back home is gather around my buddy Jordan's coffee table, break out the yellow legal pad and play NBA General Manager for an evening. This act of fantasy - and certainly delusion - allows me to write up various trade proposals, many of which my buddies will claim are a mere pipe dream, some of which actually make sense. With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, I felt that this would be the best time to share some trades that do make sense, at least from my point of view.
The object of these trades vary for the teams involved. Some are meant to cut payroll, others are meant to acquire assets, whereas a few are intended to push a team over the top and provide them with that "piece" they have been looking for. While likely none of these trades will be executed in the real NBA, I believe that all of the forthcoming deals make sense for the franchises - and players - involved. For each transaction I will also provide my reasoning as to why the trade makes sense for all parties involved.
The First Domino: Carmelo Anthony
New York Knicks Acquire: Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets and $4 million trade exception from the Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic Acquire: Ronny Turiaf (NYK)
Minnesota Timberwolves Acquire: Anthony Randolph
Denver Nuggets Acquire: Eddy Curry (NYK), Wilson Chandler (NYK), Daniel Orton (ORL), 2011 1st Round Pick (MIN via MEM), 2013 1st Round Pick (NYK)
By now everyone knows that the biggest trade target this season is Carmelo Anthony, likewise, everyone knows that the Knicks are the most likely suitor. All the scuttlebutt about Carmelo going to the Lakers is just a bunch of media hype. There is no way that the Lakers will trade away their greatest strength (the ability to line up two 7-footers) for another volume scorer. Nevertheless, the Knicks offerings to this point have been anything but strong.
However, via this transaction, the Nuggets accomplish a few things. First they get a large expiring contract in Eddy Curry. They also acquire a strong asset in Wilson Chandler, a player who can replicate a lot of Carmelo's numbers, and a guy who really brings it on the defensive end. They land a high draft pick in this year's lottery (via Minnesota) and New York's 1st round pick two years from now. Finally, they get a backup big man, who may or may not develop. Not a bad haul if you ask me. Additionally, this deal allows them to complete the makeover by finding a suitor for Chauncey Billups and getting way under the salary cap for this season and the next.
The Knicks obviously do well in this trade, as they get one of the top scorers in the NBA and a $4 million trade exception for a back-up center (Turiaf), their starting power forward (Chandler), a first round pick, and an overweight center who hasn't played in three years (Curry).
The Timberwolves land an asset in Randolph for a first round pick this year, a selection they were likely going to botch anyway.
The Magic are the "sneaky" team in this deal. They really need a player who can back up Dwight for 12-16 minutes a night, play tough defense, and finish around the rim. They also don't have many assets to give up. Enter, Ronny Turiaf. He has playoff experience from his days in Los Angeles, he is tough-as-nails, he can block shots, and he doesn't mind committing hard fouls. I think the Magic would gladly welcome him on their second unit.
The Upgrade in Big D: Danny Granger
Dallas Mavericks Acquire: Danny Granger and James Posey (IND) alone with a $1.5 million trade exception
Indiana Pacers Acquire: Caron Butler, Roddy Beaubois, DeShawn Stevenson (DAL) and 2012 1st Round Pick
This might be more of a pipe dream for Dallas, as opposed to a trade that could actually be executed in the real world. The Pacers are really going nowhere with Granger, and he - along with James Posey weighty contract - is the only financial obligation that the Pacers have moving forward. By acquiring Butler and Stevenson (both expiring this summer) the Pacers can move so far under the cap that they will only owe $16 million for the 2011-2012 season. By landing Beaubois, the Pacers finally land a guard who can score in buckets. With a core of Hibbert-Collison-Beaubois, their 2011 1st Round Pick, and roughly $40 million to spend, the Pacers could rebuild quite quickly. An offer of 5 years and $55 million for Nene (likely to leave Denver this summer) and 5 years and $42 million for Jeff Green (I doubt OKC would match that), would really fill out their front court, and would support Roy Hibbert moving forward. They would still have about $20 million to spend on other spots on the roster, and they would finally have some semblance of a true "team" for their future.
For Dallas, this gives them a legitimate shot at winning the NBA Championship this year, and helps them in the future too. Granger can play shooting guard, or small forward, and with Posey as a defensive stopper on the wing, a crunch time lineup of Kidd-Granger-Posey-Nowitzki-Chandler is suddenly quite formidable on the defensive end. Move Granger up front and Terry in to the starting lineup, and suddenly you have three great shooters flanking a creative point guard and a suddenly-dominant inside presence (Chandler.)
Moving Monta:
Atlanta Hawks Acquire: Monta Ellis (GSW)
Golden State Warriors Acquire: Josh Smith (ATL)
I don't know which team balks first at this trade. For the Warriors, this trade signals that they are moving forward with Stephen Curry as their franchise guy. The whole Curry-Ellis back court is simply too small and too defensively challenged to play together. Enter Josh Smith. By inserting Smith in to the starting lineup and moving Dorell Wright to shooting guard, the Warriors become a vastly superior defensive team to the one they have right now. Wright is a great on-the-ball defender and Biedrins - when healthy - is quite adept at protecting the paint. Smith is an all-world defender who blocks shots, clears the glass and moves the ball up the court. His defensive chops would pair well with David Lee's back to the basket game and defensive shortcomings.
For the Hawks, this trade injects them with some badly needed youth scoring. Pair Monta with Joe Johnson - whose natural tendencies as a bigger "set up man" play quite well with a scoring point guard - and you have a monstrous back court to go with one of the best young centers in the league (Horford.) This also allows the Hawks to develop a bench around Bibby, Teague and Crawford, and even opens the door to move a player such as Crawford to a team that needs a scorer. I think this works for Atlanta, but I am often wrong.
Better Now than Later:
Utah Jazz Acquire: Eric Bledsoe (LAC), Boris Diaw (CHA), Will Bynum (DET) and Minnesota's 2012 lottery-unprotected 1st Round Pick (LAC via MIN)
Los Angeles Clippers Acquire: Deron Williams (UTA), Rip Hamilton (DET), Sherron Collins (CHA)
Charlotte Bobcats Acquire: Baron Davis (LAC), 2011 2nd Round Pick (LAC), 2011 2nd Round Pick (UTA)
Detroit Pistons Acquire: Chris Kaman (LAC) and Dominic McGuire (CHA)
If we have learned anything from the Summer of 2010, it's that it is far better to trade a franchise player early, and get something in return, than it is to lose him for nothing in free agency. With all the recent news out of Utah, it appears the writing is on the wall, Deron Williams will either leave in free agency in 2012, or will demand a trade before then. So, if you are Utah, why not trade him now, get some assets and start to rebuild.
Herein, I think the Jazz actually get a decent deal for Deron. They pick up Eric Bledsoe, who, as a rookie, has already shown himself fully capable of running the point; Will Bynum, who, as a small scoring guard off the bench injects some needed life in to the Jazz; Boris Diaw, who has a large ($9 million) expiring contract; and a 2012 1st round pick (originally from Minnesota) which could very well be the top pick. The Jazz are a well run organization, and with Bledsoe, Jefferson and Millsap as their core, bench pieces like Bynum, Gordon Hayward, Mehmet Okur and C.J. Miles, and roughly $20 million in cap room this summer (Kirilenko's contract will be over) they could position themselves well for the future so long as they get a true "paint-protecting" center and a scoring guard with range.
The Clippers do this deal for the obvious reason: Deron Williams is a major upgrade over Baron Davis, he is younger, and they now have the best young core in the NBA. A starting five of Williams, Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, with Rip Hamilton, Randy Foye and Craig Smith coming off the bench is a formidable 8-man roster. They will also have about $6-8 million to spend in free agency this summer, and could easily land another piece to add to their arsenal. If they could land D-Will, they would be a scary good team.
Detroit does this deal because they get something in return for Rip Hamilton - a player they have completely marginalized since they hired Coach Kuester - and bring in a home town guy (Chris Kaman is from Michigan). Additionally, bringing in a true low post player allows them to move Greg Monroe - who has looked terrific of late - back to his natural position (power forward). The Pistons can finally trot out a lineup that makes sense: Stuckey, Gordon, Daye, Monroe, Kaman; with Charlie V., Maxiell and Jerekbo coming off the bench. That is a huge upgrade over playing five small forwards, right?
At first glance, this trade doesn't make sense for the Bobcats. I mean, after all, why would they want to take on all that money for Baron Davis? Well, let's remember what happens when Baron Davis is motivated... he plays well. Pair him with Captain Jack - his old running mate from Golden State - and Gerald Wallace, and you suddenly have an excellent perimeter troika. Once Tyrus Thomas is healthy, along with Nazr Mohammed, that is a decent starting five (and a terrific defensive group.) This also allows D.J. Augustin to get more time to season his game. I could absolutely see a reckless owner like MJ take a chance on a rejuvenated Baron Davis. I just hope he is reading this (update: he is not.)
Cleaning up Cleveland:
Cleveland Cavaliers Acquire: Marcus Banks (NOH), David Anderson (NOH), Willie Green (NOH), Aaron Gray (NOH), Aaron Brooks (HOU), and Jared Jeffries (HOU)
Portland Trail Blazers Acquire: Mo Williams (CLE)
New Orleans Hornets Acquire: Antawn Jamison and $4.8 million trade exception (CLE)
Houston Rockets Acquire: Luke Babbitt, Joel Przybilla (POR) and $8.9 million trade exception (CLE)
The Portland Trail Blazers do this deal because they give up an oft-injured backup center and a rookie who has yet to see any playing time for a former all star guard who can light it up from outside. From my perspective this deal is a no-brainer for them. Given how frail Brandon Roy is, adding Williams to a back court of Wes Matthews, Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez, provides Portland with options for a post-Roy future. They also don't have to surrender any core pieces such as Batum or Aldridge (in addition to the aforementioned Wes Matthews) and they can run a terrific small ball five of Miller, Williams, Matthews, Batum and Aldridge. If I am Portland, Mo Williams is the player I have on my radar.
From the Hornets perspective, adding Jamison provides them with two things. First, it gives you a "stretch four" who can keep defenses honest when CP3 penetrates and adds quality depth to an otherwise depleted front court. Second, it gives them a player who can start at power forward should David West decide to walk this summer. Furthermore, the Hornets get a $4.8 million trade exception that they can then use to acquire another scoring guard. I would also expect that if they sent this many players to Cleveland that one or more of them (likely Willie Green and David Anderson) would be immediately bought out, sit out the requisite 30 days, and rejoin the Hornets.
The Rockets are making a sneaky move here. They are sending out perhaps the player with the most upside in the entire deal in Aaron Brooks, but they are landing a center who protects the basket, rebounds and doesn't need the ball on offense, and a young asset in Babbitt. Przybilla is a great player to pair with Scola - who is more focused on the offensive end - and his contract expires this summer. I would fully expect the Rockets to re-sign him to a friendly contract and develop Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson behind their starting power players. Babbitt seems like a Chase Budinger type and he has already paid some dividends for Houston. Finally, the Rockets are nabbing an $8.9 million trade exception. Darrel Morey is such a savvy GM that I can see him making a move like this, and this transaction would position them perfectly to make another move in the future.
At this point, the Cavaliers are a sad franchise, but things don't have to be that way forever. If they can unload the heavy contracts owed to Jamison and Williams, get some expiring deals, and perhaps an asset like Aaron Brooks, then they can look to rebuild through the next few drafts. The only thing worse than losing 26 straight games, is doing so with a roster that is going to remain the same for the next two years. Cleveland needs to change the culture of their locker room, and the best way to do that is to refurbish their roster.
In the end, what I think we will see this trade season is a couple small deadline deals - using trade exceptions and expiring deals - and fewer blockbuster deals than we have grown accustomed to seeing. The trades listed above are just deals I think make sense for the teams involved, I do not expect any of them to come to fruition.
The object of these trades vary for the teams involved. Some are meant to cut payroll, others are meant to acquire assets, whereas a few are intended to push a team over the top and provide them with that "piece" they have been looking for. While likely none of these trades will be executed in the real NBA, I believe that all of the forthcoming deals make sense for the franchises - and players - involved. For each transaction I will also provide my reasoning as to why the trade makes sense for all parties involved.
The First Domino: Carmelo Anthony
New York Knicks Acquire: Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets and $4 million trade exception from the Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic Acquire: Ronny Turiaf (NYK)
Minnesota Timberwolves Acquire: Anthony Randolph
Denver Nuggets Acquire: Eddy Curry (NYK), Wilson Chandler (NYK), Daniel Orton (ORL), 2011 1st Round Pick (MIN via MEM), 2013 1st Round Pick (NYK)
By now everyone knows that the biggest trade target this season is Carmelo Anthony, likewise, everyone knows that the Knicks are the most likely suitor. All the scuttlebutt about Carmelo going to the Lakers is just a bunch of media hype. There is no way that the Lakers will trade away their greatest strength (the ability to line up two 7-footers) for another volume scorer. Nevertheless, the Knicks offerings to this point have been anything but strong.
However, via this transaction, the Nuggets accomplish a few things. First they get a large expiring contract in Eddy Curry. They also acquire a strong asset in Wilson Chandler, a player who can replicate a lot of Carmelo's numbers, and a guy who really brings it on the defensive end. They land a high draft pick in this year's lottery (via Minnesota) and New York's 1st round pick two years from now. Finally, they get a backup big man, who may or may not develop. Not a bad haul if you ask me. Additionally, this deal allows them to complete the makeover by finding a suitor for Chauncey Billups and getting way under the salary cap for this season and the next.
The Knicks obviously do well in this trade, as they get one of the top scorers in the NBA and a $4 million trade exception for a back-up center (Turiaf), their starting power forward (Chandler), a first round pick, and an overweight center who hasn't played in three years (Curry).
The Timberwolves land an asset in Randolph for a first round pick this year, a selection they were likely going to botch anyway.
The Magic are the "sneaky" team in this deal. They really need a player who can back up Dwight for 12-16 minutes a night, play tough defense, and finish around the rim. They also don't have many assets to give up. Enter, Ronny Turiaf. He has playoff experience from his days in Los Angeles, he is tough-as-nails, he can block shots, and he doesn't mind committing hard fouls. I think the Magic would gladly welcome him on their second unit.
The Upgrade in Big D: Danny Granger
Dallas Mavericks Acquire: Danny Granger and James Posey (IND) alone with a $1.5 million trade exception
Indiana Pacers Acquire: Caron Butler, Roddy Beaubois, DeShawn Stevenson (DAL) and 2012 1st Round Pick
This might be more of a pipe dream for Dallas, as opposed to a trade that could actually be executed in the real world. The Pacers are really going nowhere with Granger, and he - along with James Posey weighty contract - is the only financial obligation that the Pacers have moving forward. By acquiring Butler and Stevenson (both expiring this summer) the Pacers can move so far under the cap that they will only owe $16 million for the 2011-2012 season. By landing Beaubois, the Pacers finally land a guard who can score in buckets. With a core of Hibbert-Collison-Beaubois, their 2011 1st Round Pick, and roughly $40 million to spend, the Pacers could rebuild quite quickly. An offer of 5 years and $55 million for Nene (likely to leave Denver this summer) and 5 years and $42 million for Jeff Green (I doubt OKC would match that), would really fill out their front court, and would support Roy Hibbert moving forward. They would still have about $20 million to spend on other spots on the roster, and they would finally have some semblance of a true "team" for their future.
For Dallas, this gives them a legitimate shot at winning the NBA Championship this year, and helps them in the future too. Granger can play shooting guard, or small forward, and with Posey as a defensive stopper on the wing, a crunch time lineup of Kidd-Granger-Posey-Nowitzki-Chandler is suddenly quite formidable on the defensive end. Move Granger up front and Terry in to the starting lineup, and suddenly you have three great shooters flanking a creative point guard and a suddenly-dominant inside presence (Chandler.)
Moving Monta:
Atlanta Hawks Acquire: Monta Ellis (GSW)
Golden State Warriors Acquire: Josh Smith (ATL)
I don't know which team balks first at this trade. For the Warriors, this trade signals that they are moving forward with Stephen Curry as their franchise guy. The whole Curry-Ellis back court is simply too small and too defensively challenged to play together. Enter Josh Smith. By inserting Smith in to the starting lineup and moving Dorell Wright to shooting guard, the Warriors become a vastly superior defensive team to the one they have right now. Wright is a great on-the-ball defender and Biedrins - when healthy - is quite adept at protecting the paint. Smith is an all-world defender who blocks shots, clears the glass and moves the ball up the court. His defensive chops would pair well with David Lee's back to the basket game and defensive shortcomings.
For the Hawks, this trade injects them with some badly needed youth scoring. Pair Monta with Joe Johnson - whose natural tendencies as a bigger "set up man" play quite well with a scoring point guard - and you have a monstrous back court to go with one of the best young centers in the league (Horford.) This also allows the Hawks to develop a bench around Bibby, Teague and Crawford, and even opens the door to move a player such as Crawford to a team that needs a scorer. I think this works for Atlanta, but I am often wrong.
Better Now than Later:
Utah Jazz Acquire: Eric Bledsoe (LAC), Boris Diaw (CHA), Will Bynum (DET) and Minnesota's 2012 lottery-unprotected 1st Round Pick (LAC via MIN)
Los Angeles Clippers Acquire: Deron Williams (UTA), Rip Hamilton (DET), Sherron Collins (CHA)
Charlotte Bobcats Acquire: Baron Davis (LAC), 2011 2nd Round Pick (LAC), 2011 2nd Round Pick (UTA)
Detroit Pistons Acquire: Chris Kaman (LAC) and Dominic McGuire (CHA)
If we have learned anything from the Summer of 2010, it's that it is far better to trade a franchise player early, and get something in return, than it is to lose him for nothing in free agency. With all the recent news out of Utah, it appears the writing is on the wall, Deron Williams will either leave in free agency in 2012, or will demand a trade before then. So, if you are Utah, why not trade him now, get some assets and start to rebuild.
Herein, I think the Jazz actually get a decent deal for Deron. They pick up Eric Bledsoe, who, as a rookie, has already shown himself fully capable of running the point; Will Bynum, who, as a small scoring guard off the bench injects some needed life in to the Jazz; Boris Diaw, who has a large ($9 million) expiring contract; and a 2012 1st round pick (originally from Minnesota) which could very well be the top pick. The Jazz are a well run organization, and with Bledsoe, Jefferson and Millsap as their core, bench pieces like Bynum, Gordon Hayward, Mehmet Okur and C.J. Miles, and roughly $20 million in cap room this summer (Kirilenko's contract will be over) they could position themselves well for the future so long as they get a true "paint-protecting" center and a scoring guard with range.
The Clippers do this deal for the obvious reason: Deron Williams is a major upgrade over Baron Davis, he is younger, and they now have the best young core in the NBA. A starting five of Williams, Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, with Rip Hamilton, Randy Foye and Craig Smith coming off the bench is a formidable 8-man roster. They will also have about $6-8 million to spend in free agency this summer, and could easily land another piece to add to their arsenal. If they could land D-Will, they would be a scary good team.
Detroit does this deal because they get something in return for Rip Hamilton - a player they have completely marginalized since they hired Coach Kuester - and bring in a home town guy (Chris Kaman is from Michigan). Additionally, bringing in a true low post player allows them to move Greg Monroe - who has looked terrific of late - back to his natural position (power forward). The Pistons can finally trot out a lineup that makes sense: Stuckey, Gordon, Daye, Monroe, Kaman; with Charlie V., Maxiell and Jerekbo coming off the bench. That is a huge upgrade over playing five small forwards, right?
At first glance, this trade doesn't make sense for the Bobcats. I mean, after all, why would they want to take on all that money for Baron Davis? Well, let's remember what happens when Baron Davis is motivated... he plays well. Pair him with Captain Jack - his old running mate from Golden State - and Gerald Wallace, and you suddenly have an excellent perimeter troika. Once Tyrus Thomas is healthy, along with Nazr Mohammed, that is a decent starting five (and a terrific defensive group.) This also allows D.J. Augustin to get more time to season his game. I could absolutely see a reckless owner like MJ take a chance on a rejuvenated Baron Davis. I just hope he is reading this (update: he is not.)
Cleaning up Cleveland:
Cleveland Cavaliers Acquire: Marcus Banks (NOH), David Anderson (NOH), Willie Green (NOH), Aaron Gray (NOH), Aaron Brooks (HOU), and Jared Jeffries (HOU)
Portland Trail Blazers Acquire: Mo Williams (CLE)
New Orleans Hornets Acquire: Antawn Jamison and $4.8 million trade exception (CLE)
Houston Rockets Acquire: Luke Babbitt, Joel Przybilla (POR) and $8.9 million trade exception (CLE)
The Portland Trail Blazers do this deal because they give up an oft-injured backup center and a rookie who has yet to see any playing time for a former all star guard who can light it up from outside. From my perspective this deal is a no-brainer for them. Given how frail Brandon Roy is, adding Williams to a back court of Wes Matthews, Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez, provides Portland with options for a post-Roy future. They also don't have to surrender any core pieces such as Batum or Aldridge (in addition to the aforementioned Wes Matthews) and they can run a terrific small ball five of Miller, Williams, Matthews, Batum and Aldridge. If I am Portland, Mo Williams is the player I have on my radar.
From the Hornets perspective, adding Jamison provides them with two things. First, it gives you a "stretch four" who can keep defenses honest when CP3 penetrates and adds quality depth to an otherwise depleted front court. Second, it gives them a player who can start at power forward should David West decide to walk this summer. Furthermore, the Hornets get a $4.8 million trade exception that they can then use to acquire another scoring guard. I would also expect that if they sent this many players to Cleveland that one or more of them (likely Willie Green and David Anderson) would be immediately bought out, sit out the requisite 30 days, and rejoin the Hornets.
The Rockets are making a sneaky move here. They are sending out perhaps the player with the most upside in the entire deal in Aaron Brooks, but they are landing a center who protects the basket, rebounds and doesn't need the ball on offense, and a young asset in Babbitt. Przybilla is a great player to pair with Scola - who is more focused on the offensive end - and his contract expires this summer. I would fully expect the Rockets to re-sign him to a friendly contract and develop Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson behind their starting power players. Babbitt seems like a Chase Budinger type and he has already paid some dividends for Houston. Finally, the Rockets are nabbing an $8.9 million trade exception. Darrel Morey is such a savvy GM that I can see him making a move like this, and this transaction would position them perfectly to make another move in the future.
At this point, the Cavaliers are a sad franchise, but things don't have to be that way forever. If they can unload the heavy contracts owed to Jamison and Williams, get some expiring deals, and perhaps an asset like Aaron Brooks, then they can look to rebuild through the next few drafts. The only thing worse than losing 26 straight games, is doing so with a roster that is going to remain the same for the next two years. Cleveland needs to change the culture of their locker room, and the best way to do that is to refurbish their roster.
In the end, what I think we will see this trade season is a couple small deadline deals - using trade exceptions and expiring deals - and fewer blockbuster deals than we have grown accustomed to seeing. The trades listed above are just deals I think make sense for the teams involved, I do not expect any of them to come to fruition.
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