The Wild Wild West

I realize that I failed to put out my annual Western Conference predictions prior to the season beginning, so this may be a bit after the fact, but better late than never. The following is the order in which I believe the teams will finish the regular season, not necessarily who will represent the West in the NBA Finals. Whereas the Eastern Conference is very top heavy, (I really don't see the Eastern Conference sending a representative outside of South Beach of Chi-Town) the Western Conference is wide open. Though the Oklahoma City Thunder are the heavy favorites to finish with the top seed, the compressed format for this year's schedule will set up an interesting number of playoff battles, much like the lockout-shortened 1998-1999 season. So, consider the following both my predictions for the way the regular season will play out for the Western Conference teams, and what might eventually happen in the second season.

Predicted Standings:
Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Memphis Grizzlies

Lottery Teams
9. Houston Rockets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. New Orleans Hornets
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Utah Jazz
15. Phoenix Suns

The Suns and Jazz have just looked awful in the early part of this season, and have little to play for. Both teams are better off moving in to full rebuilding mode rather than trying to eke out a playoff spot, only to be swept by a team like the Thunder (and believe me, neither the Suns nor the Jazz have a shot at the playoffs.)

The Kings, Warriors, and Hornets are all young teams with a lot of pieces, but none of them seemingly have any idea how to properly use the talent they have. The Kings have a logjam in the back court, and play zero defense. The Warriors also play zero defense, and lack a legitimate front court defensive presence. The Hornets were hastily put together by Czar Stern, and while they will be a contender in the future (a nucleus of Eric Gordon, Al Farouq Aminu, the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, their own 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, and whatever else they can get for some of their movable assets - e.g. Chris Kaman - is promising) they are not going anywhere right now.

The Timberwolves are a frisky team. They have one of the best young players in the game (Kevin Love) lots of depth, particularly on the wings (Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Martell Webster, Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington, etc...) and point guard (KAHNNNNN!!!!) and they have the perfect coach, in Rick Adelman, to motivate a young team to win 30+ games, which might be enough to get them in to the playoffs this season. But they will still have to deal with the growing pains that come with young teams. Watch out for them in the future, they will be a halfway decent team, and this year they will be an eminently watchable franchise, a step up from the past few years under Kurt Rambis.

The Houston Rockets, like Minnesota, has a deep roster (a must for success in a shortened regular season) and plenty of scoring punch in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Courtney Lee) but they lack a true center, and in the Western Conference you need a big man to win (or a transcendent All-Star named Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitzki). So, until Houston can solve their problems in the middle (and Samuel Dalembert is not the answer) they will be on the outside looking in.

That leaves us with eight teams that will make the playoffs. And this is the year when seeding really doesn't matter. Both John Hollinger at ESPN.com and Bill Simmons from Grantland.com have intimated that what really matters, particularly for older teams like San Antonio, Dallas and the Lakers, is merely getting in. While Denver and Portland can boast about their depth (particularly Denver, a team that can go 10 or 11 deep) the playoffs is about having a strong 7-man rotation. In a 7-game series, I would take the Lakers rotation of Kobe-Pau-Bynum-World Peace-Blake-McRoberts and Troy Murphy over the Ty Lawson, Nene, Arron Afflalo, Gallinari and crew. The same goes for a potential Portland-Clippers matchup. In that potential series, the Clippers would walk on to the court each night with the two best players (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) wearing red white and blue. The really interesting match-ups - at least among those teams I think are capable of making the playoffs are the Thunder-Grizzlies rematch from last season, and the perennial Texas grudge match between San Antonio and Dallas.

In the former match up, everything turns on whether Rudy Gay can be the difference maker that the Grizzlies lacked in last year's epic 7-game series against the Thunder, and whether the Thunder's big men will be able to contain both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. While OKC is the overwhelming favorite to come out of the West, I can absolutely see the Grizzlies stealing a page out of the 1999 New York Knick's playoff playbook. 

A possible Dallas-San Antonio match up might seem fairly even, but if the first few games of this season have shown me anything about the Spurs, it's this: Tim Duncan is old, and he is no longer a difference maker on either end of the court. In that series I would expect Dirk to go bonkers and I would confidently pick Dallas in 5 or 6 games.

Moving along with these picks, the Lakers would have a chance to avenge their embarrassing playoff exit to the Dallas Mavericks, and go up against a familiar foe, and former friend, Lamar Odom. It is hard to make a prediction on who would win a potential series between Dallas and L.A. as I think the Lakers are not done dealing. With an $8.9 million trade exception (from the Lamar Odom salary dump) and the veterans minimum available to throw at players who may become available (remember, that J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Aaron Brooks will be freed from China by Jack Bauer in March.) Aaron Brooks might be of particular interest to the Lakers, as they need a speedy point guard to match up with guys like CP3, Parker, Mike Conley, etc... They could also look to pry some talent from Minnesota - Luke Ridnour and Michael Beasley would provide them with some upgrade at the 1 and the 3, and inject them with some much-needed youth up front - with the aforementioned trade exception. Anyway, in a potential series between these two teams, I would expect LA to exorcise their demons and take down Dallas.

It's the other series that provides the real intrigue, at least for me. If Memphis were to match up with the Clippers, we might have one of the most intriguing and even series in years. While Mike Conley is not Chris Paul, he is good enough that he won't get burned off of every pick-and-roll in the way a slower, older point guard a la Derek Fisher might. Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, and Jeremy Pargo would provide ample ammunition to fend off Chauncey Billups, Randy Foye, Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe. Up front, Blake Griffin cannot contain Zach Randolph, and Randolph cannot contain Griffin. The Clippers are woefully thin at center. When - not if - DeAndre Jordan gets in foul trouble, the Clippers will be seeing a lot of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans "protecting" Griffin's back, whereas the Grizzlies have Marc Gasol, and can lean on Dante Cummingham for quality minutes. However, it's on the wing where the Grizz have a true advantage over the Clips. While Caron Butler is a "nice" player, he will be overmatched by Rudy Gay, and Ryan Gomes will not be able to contain Sam Young. Finally, the Clippers are coached by Vinny del Negro, and I just don't trust him.

While "Lob City" will be fun to watch, it will probably be another year before they become a true contender (which will of course necessitate firing del Negro). As such, I would expect Memphis to advance to the Western Conference Finals to face the Los Angeles Lakers.

Only in a lockout-shortened season could a potential Western Conference Finals feature the 6 seed and the 8 seed. While the Lakers have the front court depth (McRoberts and Murphy provide them with big bodies to throw at Gasol and Randolph, and don't sleep on Derrick Caracter coming back to provide them with a 5th big man by the playoffs) to contend with the Grizzlies, it will really come down to the Lakers ability to defend a speedy point guard like Conley, and a smooth three-man like Rudy Gay for them to make it back to the NBA Finals.

In a year which started off with Commissioner David Stern meddling with a potential three-team trade to the point where at least four franchises were detrimentally affected (LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics) I can absolutely see it ending with Czar Stern rigging the Western Conference Finals to ensure that the NBA Finals ratings are high with a potential Los Angeles - Chicago or Los Angeles - Miami series, rather than having to worry about filling FedEx Forum in Memphis.

The NBA, where shady Commissioners happens!