I realize it has been quite a while since my last post, and many people - namely my father, sister and closest friends - have been badgering me to update this woebegone web-log, so here is my best attempt, albeit a short post.
It goes without saying that this summer has been an active offseason for many NBA franchises. The first major move was the Atlanta Hawks shipping All-Star shooting guard Joe Johnson - and his albatross contract - to the New Jersey Nets for expiring deals. I feel this was a win-win deal. The New Jersey Nets obtained a top-flight 2-guard - which eventually allowed them to retain Deron Williams, the top free agent on the market this summer - while the Atlanta Hawks focused on rebuilding around Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jeff Teague, along with draft picks and salary cap space. This makes the Nets an immediately fun team to watch - along with the resigning of Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, and Brook Lopez, it allows the Nets to trot out a competitive, albeit defensively limited, starting five - and this allows the Hawks to avoid the undesirable fate of being a middling-playoff-eligible team with little upside, hamstrung by onerous contractual obligations. Along with the trade of Marvin Williams for Devin Harris - and his expiring contract - and a few minor deals to obtain shooters in Anthony Morrow and Kyle Korver, the Hawks will remain competitive enough to keep butts in the seats, but will have a tremendous amount of cap space next summer - or the following summer, should they decide to wait - when they will be able to make a play for a number of free agents.
The New York Knicks tried to one-up the Nets by making a splashy move for a point guard, but failed in courting Steve Nash. They eventually ended up trading with the Trail Blazers for Raymond Felton, Kurt Thomas, Kurt Thomas' walker and a nutritionist in the hopes of adding a starting point guard and some front court depth. This deal made little sense after the 'Bockers had just added free agent point guard Jason Kidd and center Marcus Camby, particularly the former, as he was brought in to tutor young Jeremy Lin. But, in traditional Jimmy Dolan fashion, the Knicks lost their most prized free agent in years, when they opted not to match the Houston Rockets' $25 million offer sheet for the Harvard prodigy. The Knicks' reasoning for letting the fan favorite - Lin - go, was that due to the new collective bargaining agreement, the Knicks would end up paying roughly $26 million for the third year of Lin's back-loaded deal. However, letting him walk - without compensation, I might add - made/makes little sense, as they were going to get two years out of Lin at the mid-level exception (around $5.6 million/year) and could have made a move thereafter to trade him. Now the Knicks have an aging lineup whose pieces do not seem to fit together. They are still capable of winning 50 games and a top-8 of Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler-Kidd-Shumpert-Camby is pretty strong. But I just don't like how they mortgaged their future for their present, particularly given the fact that their present is not that strong.
On the other end of the deal, the Rockets obtained a young point guard (Lin) who showed flashes of brilliance this season (even if the sample size was small). Nevertheless, the Rockets struck out in free agency, as their only other major acquisitions were Omer Asik (the former backup center for the Chicago Bulls) and swingman Carlos Delfino (who agreed to a one-year deal last week). The Rockets tried to go all-in to obtain Dwight Howard, but apparently they were unwilling to part with a number of their young assets - nor were they willing to take on as many bad contracts as originally advertised - to consummate the deal. As such, the Rockets lost two top-flight point guards in Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic and walked away with Jeremy Lin (an obvious downgrade) and a first round pick from the Toronto Raptors. Not bad, but not good either.
Meanwhile, the "Dwightmare" was eventually resolved two weeks ago when the apparently brain-dead general manager of the Orlando Magic agreed to ship Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers (shocker!) in a four team deal, wherein the Magic acquired Al Harrington and Aaron Afflalo from the Nuggets, Mo Harkless from the Philadelphia 76ers and first round picks from the aforementioned three teams. Meanwhile, the 76ers acquired LA big man Andrew Bynum, and shipped Andre Iguodala to the Denver Nuggets. I like this deal for everyone except Orlando. The Lakers now have a starting five of Howard-Gasol-World Peace-Bryant and the recently acquired Steve Nash (who was stolen away from Phoenix for the Lamar Odom trade exception and late-round picks) which will likely compete for the Larry O'Brien trophy late in to the post-season. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets now have the fastest and most athletic team in the entire NBA, and can play defense too. With Kenneth Farried, JaVale McGee and Andre Iguodala, they have three great defenders to pair with sharp-shooter Danilo Gallinari and water bug point guard Ty Lawson. Their bench is deep, the air in Denver is thin, and George Karl is the master at getting the most out of his players. Expect this team to earn a top-3 seed in the Western Conference, and don't count them out come May and June. Finally, the 76ers got the second best big man in basketball, and offloaded Andre Iguodala (and his hefty contract) who had become redundant with Philadelphia's wealth of wing-talent. This deal makes Philadelphia an immediate contender in the Eastern Conference, where they will be able to claim the best big man in the conference, a versatile lineup, and some of the best coaching in Doug Collins.
The Boston Celtics made a curious move in giving Jeff Green $9 million dollars/year (I forget how long the contract lasts), but as a survivor of aortic surgery myself, I can't help but congratulate the guy for getting his. I hope he recovers from his year off, and is able to integrate back in to basketball. Along with Jason Terry, Avery Bradley, Kevin Garnett, Brandon Bass, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and rookie Jared Sullinger, the Celtics are going to be a sneaky-good team, capable of beating anyone and everyone on the right night. Look for Rondo to develop even better rapport with Bradley this season that he did last year, and expect Jason Terry to replace 90% of Ray Allen's shooting prowess, while also bringing the Celtics a capable ball-handler.
Meanwhile, Miami stole Ray Allen from the Celtics for little money, and then gave Rashard Lewis (who was amnestied by New Orleans) a small bag of cash and told him to spot up in the corner and not get lost on defense. The Heat had little wiggle-room in free-agency, but came away from it all with two premier shooters to surround their already-deadly troika of stars.
Speaking of New Orleans, they struck gold in the draft, landing Anthony "The Brow" Davis with the top overall selection, and adding Austin Rivers with the tenth pick in the draft. While the later is undoubtedly a project, who may or may not prove to be a bust, the former is a sure-thing. Davis will instantly transform the already-strong Hornet defense in to a juggernaut. Add to that the swap with Orlando (seriously what is going on in Central Florida?) of Gustavo Ayon for Ryan Anderson and his sweet shooting, and the Hornets are really making some great moves for the future. I think they deserve perhaps the highest marks for their off-season additions.
Toronto, like New York, went all-in for Steve Nash, even so far as to make a ludicrous offer for Landry Fields, in hopes of blocking a sign-and-trade between New York and Phoenix, only to see it all explode in their face when Nash shocked the world and moved a few hours west to Los Angeles. The (C)Raptors ended up with Landry Fields and Kyle Lowry. I like Lowry (even if it meant surrendering a likely lottery pick), but Fields is going to be making way too much money for what he brings to the team. Hopefully, Jonas Valuncinas can improve upon his showing at the 2012 London Olympics and make an immediate impact for Toronto. Otherwise, this franchise is screwed.
Orlando continued to make curious (read: HORRIBLE) moves, when they re-upped mid-tier point guard Jameer Nelson for another three years. I don't get why they are adding payroll when they are trying to rebuild. My only explanation for this is that new General Manager Rob Hennigan went to the Billy King/Billy Knight/David Khan school of franchise management. Orlando will be bad for a while, trust me.
The Bobcats did very little in free agency, which doesn't really matter, because they were going to be bad this coming season one way or another. By adding Ben Gordon, they got another combo-guard who looks for his own shot and rarely moves the basketball. The upside to that is that they also received a first-round pick from Detroit (who acquired Corey Maggette, another black hole if ever there was one) so hopefully Charlotte can compete with Washington (another team that did little in free agency) and Orlando to see who can win the lottery over the next few seasons.
While on the topic of the Washington Wizards, why they decided to trade for over-paid players in Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza, rather than merely amnestying Rashard Lewis (over Andray Blatche and his penchant for hookers) boggles my mind. I thought Ted Leonsis was committed to the future with guys like John Wall, Bradley Beal, that European dude whose name I can't spell, Chris Singleton and Kevan Seraphin? It is quite clear to me that Miami will be owning the Southeast Division for quite a while.
The Central Division might have seen the least action in all. The Bulls let just about their entire bench go when it became clear that Derrick Rose would be out for a majority of the coming season. While they retained their core (Rose-Boozer-Deng-Noah-Gibson) they lost pretty much every other contributor, and will likely take a major step back this season. The Cavaliers overreached for Dion Waiters and made no big moves in free agency, while Milwaukee got another thin big man in John Henson and resigned their own guy, Ersan Ilyasova. Adding Samuel Dalembert was also a nice move for the Bucks, who might be a sleeper pick to win the Central Division were it not for the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers made some bone-headed moves of their own (like trading Darren Collison for the right to overpay Ian Mahinmi) they locked up Roy Hibbert (after Portland made him a solid offer) as well as George Hill (who will be slightly overpaid for the next half-decade.) I imagine Indy is eventually going to move Danny Granger, particularly with Paul George coming in to his own, but for now, they are a top-4 squad in the Eastern Conference, and a tough-out in the playoffs.
The Lakers were the big winners in the West with the acquisition of Howard and Nash. Add to that Antawn Jamison, who got the same deal that the Heat offered Rashard Lewis, and Jodie Meeks, who will be playing on a contract that is likely below market-value, and the Lakers suddenly went from aging veterans to title contenders overnight. They were also able to resign late-season contributor Jordan Hill to a team-friendly contract, and acquire Darius Johnson-Odom (out of Marquette) from Dallas on draft night. I like Johnson-Odom, and see a bit of Derek Fisher in him. If he can give them anything this season, that is like finding money on the ground. Meanwhile, the Suns acquired Goran Dragic, bringing him in for a second run with the franchise, and forward Michael Beasley. They lost Josh Childress (he was amnesthitized) and Brook Lopez (traded to New Orleans along with Hakim Warrick) but they also kept a lot of cap space for a future run at James "The Beard" Harden. The Clippers brought back Chauncey Billups, who is still rehabbing from an Achilles tear, signed Jamal Crawford, shipped out Mo Williams and added front-court depth by acquiring Lamar Odom and Ryan Hollins. With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both coming off of injuries (not to mention Billups) the Clippers will need to lean on their bench for help in November. The Kings did very little, other than threaten to leave for Virginia Beach (really?) and the Warriors resigned their own free agents, made a cagey deal in dumping Dorrell Wright for Jarret Jack, and swung a nice haul in the draft, particularly with their choice at number seven, Harrison Barnes.
The Jazz dealt Devin Harris for Marvin Williams, instantly upgrading their wing depth, and brought in Mo Williams (who was part of the three team deal with Dallas and the LA Clippers). The Thunder signed Hasheem Thabeet, with the intention of turning him in to a real basketball player, and stole Perry Jones (assuming he stays healthy) with the 28th pick in the first round. They also resigned Serge Ibaka to a 4-year, $48 million deal, assuring that they keep at least three of their four core guys together for the next few years. The Timberwolves signed Andrei Kirilenko, Olympic standout Alexy Shved, and Dolph Lundgren and are expected to play what Kevin Love dubbed "euro ball." I foresee a lot of complaining to the referees, cheap shots, the singing of the Russian national anthem, and an eventual trade of Kevin Love to a major media market. The Trail Blazers nabbed Damion Lillard and Myers Leonard in the first round and resigned Nicholas Batum for a contract they will eventually regret. They took one step forward, and two steps back.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks, after being spurned by Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Dwight Howard, and pretty much everyone else, claimed Elton Brand off of the amnesty waivers, added German-citizen Chris Kaman, O.J. Mayo (on a deal that is only guaranteed for one year) and the aforementioned Darren Collison. These are clearly stop-gap measures meant to keep Dallas on the precipice of the playoff picture, without capsizing their future ambitions of rebuilding with top-flight talent. San Antonio resigned Tim Duncan to a three-year, $30 million deal, re-upped Boris Diaw and the twins, and kept their core pretty much intact. They still have some game in them, and anyone who counts them out is an idiot. The Memphis Grizzlies let Mayo walk, and replaced him with Jerryd Bayless, resigned their back-up big man (DARREL ARTHUR!!!) and kept the status quo.
All in all, it was an active off-season. I hope to write more soon, particularly with everything that has gone on in the NBA and basketball this summer, so stay tuned for more regular blog posts.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Five Easy Pieces
The San Antonio Spurs are a great team. I am not the first person to say this, and I won't be the last. But, as in many past seasons, they are also the most overlooked team, a team that continually sneaks up on their opponents, wins games at all costs, and enters the playoffs as perhaps the healthiest team, and, in the writer's estimation, the favorite to bring the Larry O'Brien trophy back to the Alamo City.
Now, I realize that Las Vegas has Miami, Chicago, and Oklahoma City as the odds on favorites to win the title (respectively they are set at 7-5, 3-1 and 3-1.) However, the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks are also two of the top-seven favorites according to Sin City, so take those odds with a large grain of salt. However, it is more than odds when it comes time for the playoffs. It is about personnel, health, coaching, experience and match-ups. And, when it comes to the San Antonio Spurs, they score an A+ in all of the categories they can actually control (match-ups will come down to the end of the season and is outside the Spurs' power.)
The reason this post is titled "Five Easy Pieces" has nothing to do with Jack Nicholson (though it might if the Spurs and Lakers face off in a second-round match-up). No, the title of this post refers to the Spurs personnel, and their rabbi, Greg Popovich. Over the past 10 years in the NBA, no coach has succeeded as much as Popovich with limited role players, a smaller budget, and a brand of basketball that many have written off as stodgy and boring. But, the Spurs keep on trucking, they keep on winning, and right now they are on pace to win their second consecutive #1 seed in the Western Conference.
The reason for the Spurs success is no secret, their players buy in to Popovich's system, they play fundamentally sound basketball, everyone knows their role, they have a great and stoic leader (Tim Duncan), and they have players who are willing to sacrifice their own talents for the success of the team. None of this is new. In fact, the New York Times described in detail just last week how successful the relationship between Duncan and Popovich has been over the years, because the two are selfless individuals, focused more on wins, than style.
Right now, the Spurs have one of the league's hottest players in Tony Parker. He is a speedy point guard who has become the focal point of their offense, and has improved as a defender to the point where he will not be over-matched by "top-tier" point guards like Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. The Spurs have the luxury of bringing Manu Ginobili off the bench, a player who provides dynamic offense, can shoot from anywhere, defends well, and brings an intensity that has not been seen from a South American since Pablo Escobar did this. The Spurs have quality big men in DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter. Quality wing players who are "jack-of-all-trades" in Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Gary Neal. Wild card back-up players in Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw. And lastly, a dynamic big man who stretches the floor and opens up driving lanes for the guards, in Matt Bonner.
The Spurs are rested. Lately, none of their players have spent more than 30 minutes a night on the floor, and the statistics are different each night. One night Parker is the engine, the next night Duncan puts up a vintage 22 and 13 with 3 blocks, 3 steals and 5 assists, and on another night Manu Ginobili goes perfect from the line, shoots over 50% from the field and scores 20+ points. These guys are just easy-going pieces who are interchangeable and unaffected by egos.
It should be reiterated that it starts at the top with their laid-back, Pinot-snob coach who can use his players like chess pieces, making substitutions on the fly and making beautiful music with each victory, in the regular season and the post season.
For all the flash that the Big Three in Miami bring, all the hype about the best 1-2 punch in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, and the top-overall seed Chicago Bulls, the San Antonio Spurs are my pick to win the NBA Finals this season. Two weeks from now, they could be losing a series to the Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Lakers, or Dallas Mavericks. But, when you have selfless players, a brilliant coach, and talent at every position, I highly doubt they will bend, or break.
NBA Playoff Picks:
Eastern Conference:
Chicago, Miami, Indiana and Boston advance to the second round.
Chicago and Miami advance to the ECF.
Chicago wins the East.
Western Conference:
San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies advance to the second round.
San Antonio and OKC advance to the WCF.
San Antonio wins the West.
San Antonio over Chicago in six games.
Now, I realize that Las Vegas has Miami, Chicago, and Oklahoma City as the odds on favorites to win the title (respectively they are set at 7-5, 3-1 and 3-1.) However, the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks are also two of the top-seven favorites according to Sin City, so take those odds with a large grain of salt. However, it is more than odds when it comes time for the playoffs. It is about personnel, health, coaching, experience and match-ups. And, when it comes to the San Antonio Spurs, they score an A+ in all of the categories they can actually control (match-ups will come down to the end of the season and is outside the Spurs' power.)
The reason this post is titled "Five Easy Pieces" has nothing to do with Jack Nicholson (though it might if the Spurs and Lakers face off in a second-round match-up). No, the title of this post refers to the Spurs personnel, and their rabbi, Greg Popovich. Over the past 10 years in the NBA, no coach has succeeded as much as Popovich with limited role players, a smaller budget, and a brand of basketball that many have written off as stodgy and boring. But, the Spurs keep on trucking, they keep on winning, and right now they are on pace to win their second consecutive #1 seed in the Western Conference.
The reason for the Spurs success is no secret, their players buy in to Popovich's system, they play fundamentally sound basketball, everyone knows their role, they have a great and stoic leader (Tim Duncan), and they have players who are willing to sacrifice their own talents for the success of the team. None of this is new. In fact, the New York Times described in detail just last week how successful the relationship between Duncan and Popovich has been over the years, because the two are selfless individuals, focused more on wins, than style.
Right now, the Spurs have one of the league's hottest players in Tony Parker. He is a speedy point guard who has become the focal point of their offense, and has improved as a defender to the point where he will not be over-matched by "top-tier" point guards like Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. The Spurs have the luxury of bringing Manu Ginobili off the bench, a player who provides dynamic offense, can shoot from anywhere, defends well, and brings an intensity that has not been seen from a South American since Pablo Escobar did this. The Spurs have quality big men in DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter. Quality wing players who are "jack-of-all-trades" in Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Gary Neal. Wild card back-up players in Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw. And lastly, a dynamic big man who stretches the floor and opens up driving lanes for the guards, in Matt Bonner.
The Spurs are rested. Lately, none of their players have spent more than 30 minutes a night on the floor, and the statistics are different each night. One night Parker is the engine, the next night Duncan puts up a vintage 22 and 13 with 3 blocks, 3 steals and 5 assists, and on another night Manu Ginobili goes perfect from the line, shoots over 50% from the field and scores 20+ points. These guys are just easy-going pieces who are interchangeable and unaffected by egos.
It should be reiterated that it starts at the top with their laid-back, Pinot-snob coach who can use his players like chess pieces, making substitutions on the fly and making beautiful music with each victory, in the regular season and the post season.
For all the flash that the Big Three in Miami bring, all the hype about the best 1-2 punch in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, and the top-overall seed Chicago Bulls, the San Antonio Spurs are my pick to win the NBA Finals this season. Two weeks from now, they could be losing a series to the Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Lakers, or Dallas Mavericks. But, when you have selfless players, a brilliant coach, and talent at every position, I highly doubt they will bend, or break.
NBA Playoff Picks:
Eastern Conference:
Chicago, Miami, Indiana and Boston advance to the second round.
Chicago and Miami advance to the ECF.
Chicago wins the East.
Western Conference:
San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies advance to the second round.
San Antonio and OKC advance to the WCF.
San Antonio wins the West.
San Antonio over Chicago in six games.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Linsanity, Fake Laker Trades, and Yet Another Inequity in the NBA
Linsanity
These days I cannot go an hour without texting/tweeting/emailing and/or chatting to a friend about Jeremy Lin. I will not try to recap everything he has done over the past week and a half - as I am pretty sure ESPN has beat that one to death - but I am very impressed with his play, his composure, and what he means to the sport and to society. America is desperate for a "winning story" these days. We saw it a few months back with "Tebowmania," but I think - at least if Lin continues to propel the New York Knickerbockers to victory - that Lin's story is on a totally different level. As Bill Simmons points out in mailbag today, Tebow was a stud athlete on every level, and was not exactly overlooked. Lin was overlooked, twice, this past summer, and one time it was by one of the headiest general managers in the NBA - Daryl Morey. Like Tebow, Lin is a high-character individual and a devout Christian. Like Tebow he is also a winner. However, what Lin has done to differentiate himself from Tebow is put up jaw-dropping numbers, while at the same time continually leading his team to Ws. Add to that the fact that he is the first Asian-American player in the NBA, and you have the perfect Disney sports movie lined up. But for the fact that Asian-Americans are marginalized in Hollywood, Disney would already be shooting this movie.
With all the negative stories that come out of the sports world, it is refreshing that sports fans have been treated to not one, but two, stories about underdogs who take the reins of a woebegone franchise, and lead them to victory. But, unless Tim Tebow comes back next season and starts completing passes, and making his teammates better - as Lin does night in and night out - Lin is the more sensational story. (Side note: I think the Lin-Tebow story is ripe for parody. Wouldn't they break the unintentional comedy scale as a "buddy cop duo?")
Fake Trades
I have a lot of friends who are fans of the Los Angeles Lakers. I am also a fan of the L.A. Lakers, though my fandom is a bit more tempered than my comrades who cry every time the purple and gold lose. From what I understand, a lot of people in L.A. are clamoring for the Lakers to make a big move, setting them up to be in a position to contend for the NBA Title this season (let's face it, as currently constructed, the Lakers are not going to win a title.) I am of the mindset that the Lakers should actually try not to make the playoffs, thereby securing a lottery pick, in the best draft in years. Taking that logic one step further, this would likely allow the Dallas Mavericks to make the playoffs, thereby sending their 2012 first round pick (top-20 protected) to the Lakers. Were the Lakers to have, say, the 14th and the 21st pick in a loaded draft, I can easily see them landing two stud players who, combined with other young talent, like Andrew Bynum, could have a lasting impact on a franchise that needs to remain relevant (particularly in a town that is turning toward Clipperdom.)
Nevertheless, Laker fans want to win now. And, with that in mind, I have constructed a few trades - some of which you have likely seen before - that the Lakers could/should make, to ensure victory this season (and perhaps in the future.)
Trade #1: Something Realistic
Lakers Get: Luis Scola (HOU), Dwight Howard (ORL) and Hedo Turkoglu. Scola replaces 70% of what Pau Gasol does. Howard is an upgrade from Andrew Bynum. Turkoglu, gives the Lakers some much needed outside shooting, and ball handling, and allows the Lakers to have a trigger-man on offense (something they have been sorely lacking since Odom was sent to Dallas.)
Rockets Get: Pau Gasol (LAL). The Rockets need a star, and they get a star. They now have a strong starting-five of Kyle Lowry, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger, Pau Gasol, Samuel Dalembert with a lot of young assets.
Magic Get: Andrew Bynum (LAL) and Kevin Martin (HOU). The Magic are going to lose Dwight, so why not get a strong center to replace 80% of what he does (and, shh, this is a secret: he's an upgrade on the offensive end) and a stud shooting guard to boot. The Magic can essentially run the same offense with Bynum that they do with Howard, and now they can look to move some of their flotsam (Jason Richardson's miserably new contract comes to mind, as does Chris Duhon) while already ridding themselves of Turkoglu's nasty deal. This allows them to amnesty one of the aforementioned toxic assets (Richardson, Duhon, maybe even Nelson)
Trade #2: Lakers' Fans Wet Dream
Lakers Get: Deron Williams (NJ) and Dwight Howard (ORL). They automatically have the best three-man core in the NBA with a great distributor/scorer (Williams), elite scorer (Bryant) and elite rebounder/defender (Howard.) Enough said. It is not happening though. So cool your jets Laker fans.
Nets Get: Pau Gasol (LAL). If the Nets do not get Howard this season, Williams is going to Dallas (the worst kept secret in the NBA.) So, why not get rid of him now, and get an All-NBA power forward to play alongside Brook Lopez when he is healthy.
Magic Get: Andrew Bynum (LAL). See above.
Trade #3: Building for the Future
Lakers Get: Josh Smith (ATL), Michael Beasley (MIN), Derrick Williams (MIN), Malcolm Lee (MIN) and Minnesota's 2013 First Round Pick. The Lakers get younger at power forward (Smith) and establish more of a defensive mindset in doing so. They also acquire a young combo-forward (Williams) who looks to have a promising career in the NBA, and will be an upgrade over the Metta World Peace-Walton-Ebanks-Barnes Pu-Pu platter at the small forward position. They get a young point guard (Lee) who may give them something, and another asset (Minny's 2013 1st-Rounder) that may help them down the road. Beasley is a risk worth taking, as he might be able to provide a spark off the bench for a team in desperate need of a bench presence, and they would own his Bird rights, thereby allowing them to resign him for a franchise-friendly number. I think this is a big win for the Lakers as they also free themselves of Walton's contract, allowing them to amnesty Metta World Peace.
Timberwolves Get: Pau Gasol (LAL) and the Lakers 2012 2nd Round Draft Pick. They trade a bunch of small pieces - many of whom do not fit together - for a stud big man, who gets to reunite with his countryman (Rubio) and another strong big man (Love - who plays further from the basket, thereby allowing Gasol to operate below the free-throw line) on a team run by an offensive genius (Rick Adelman.) They would have a strong core with Rubio-Love-Gasol and spare parts, and maybe they strike gold with a couple of 2nd round picks down the road.
Hawks Get: Luke Walton (LAL), Anthony Randolph (MIN) and Nikola Pekovic (MIN). The Hawks get rid of a big contract (because Joe Johnson is virtually unmovable, Smith has to be the one to go) and immediately amnesty Walton, thereby picking up two young assets in Randolph and Pekovic. Pekovic is a starting-caliber center, who, paired with Horford, would combine to make a formidable front court. Randolph is still young, and still has upside, and could be a jack-of-all trades for a team that desperately needs something new. The big win here for Atlanta is moving Horford to his natural position of power forward, when he returns from injury, and absolving itself of nearly $10 million in contract guarantees.
Finishing Note: NBA Inequities
The NBA is a league of have and have nots. Just look at the disparity in talent between the Charlotte Bobcats and the Miami Heat. Case closed. However, what bothers me, is that a team can buy out a player, and that the same player can then go ahead and play for the team of his choosing, essentially making two salaries. In this case, the player is Chris Kaman, who is rumored to be heading to Miami after a buyout from the New Orleans Hornets. While this move would, in my opinion, guarantee the Heat the championship this season (Kaman is a great low-post player and rebounder and a competent defensive big man) the bigger issue is that the Hornets (who, by the way are owned by the NBA) would be giving up one of the biggest assets they acquired from the LA Clippers (in the Chris Paul deal) for nothing. Sure, they might save a million dollars or so, but wasn't the hold up on the Chris Paul deal always about inequity? Given that Eric Gordon is out for the season (and seemingly never healthy) and unlikely to sign with the Hornets for the long term; that Al-Farouq Aminu is a bit player; and that the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Pick is likely going to be a late-lottery pick at best, how is the Clipper's accepted-offer for Chris Paul in any way, shape or form, better than what the Lakers/Rockets could have guaranteed.
Now, one of the primary pieces from that deal is going to be bought out of his deal (allowing him to walk away with 90% of what he is owed) and the league-owned Hornets will be left with squat.
Sometimes the NBA makes me happy, and proud, to be a fan (see: Lin, Jeremy). Other times, I am able to see through the facade of bullshit that continually comes out of the league office, which ruins the integrity of the sport.
These days I cannot go an hour without texting/tweeting/emailing and/or chatting to a friend about Jeremy Lin. I will not try to recap everything he has done over the past week and a half - as I am pretty sure ESPN has beat that one to death - but I am very impressed with his play, his composure, and what he means to the sport and to society. America is desperate for a "winning story" these days. We saw it a few months back with "Tebowmania," but I think - at least if Lin continues to propel the New York Knickerbockers to victory - that Lin's story is on a totally different level. As Bill Simmons points out in mailbag today, Tebow was a stud athlete on every level, and was not exactly overlooked. Lin was overlooked, twice, this past summer, and one time it was by one of the headiest general managers in the NBA - Daryl Morey. Like Tebow, Lin is a high-character individual and a devout Christian. Like Tebow he is also a winner. However, what Lin has done to differentiate himself from Tebow is put up jaw-dropping numbers, while at the same time continually leading his team to Ws. Add to that the fact that he is the first Asian-American player in the NBA, and you have the perfect Disney sports movie lined up. But for the fact that Asian-Americans are marginalized in Hollywood, Disney would already be shooting this movie.
With all the negative stories that come out of the sports world, it is refreshing that sports fans have been treated to not one, but two, stories about underdogs who take the reins of a woebegone franchise, and lead them to victory. But, unless Tim Tebow comes back next season and starts completing passes, and making his teammates better - as Lin does night in and night out - Lin is the more sensational story. (Side note: I think the Lin-Tebow story is ripe for parody. Wouldn't they break the unintentional comedy scale as a "buddy cop duo?")
Fake Trades
I have a lot of friends who are fans of the Los Angeles Lakers. I am also a fan of the L.A. Lakers, though my fandom is a bit more tempered than my comrades who cry every time the purple and gold lose. From what I understand, a lot of people in L.A. are clamoring for the Lakers to make a big move, setting them up to be in a position to contend for the NBA Title this season (let's face it, as currently constructed, the Lakers are not going to win a title.) I am of the mindset that the Lakers should actually try not to make the playoffs, thereby securing a lottery pick, in the best draft in years. Taking that logic one step further, this would likely allow the Dallas Mavericks to make the playoffs, thereby sending their 2012 first round pick (top-20 protected) to the Lakers. Were the Lakers to have, say, the 14th and the 21st pick in a loaded draft, I can easily see them landing two stud players who, combined with other young talent, like Andrew Bynum, could have a lasting impact on a franchise that needs to remain relevant (particularly in a town that is turning toward Clipperdom.)
Nevertheless, Laker fans want to win now. And, with that in mind, I have constructed a few trades - some of which you have likely seen before - that the Lakers could/should make, to ensure victory this season (and perhaps in the future.)
Trade #1: Something Realistic
Lakers Get: Luis Scola (HOU), Dwight Howard (ORL) and Hedo Turkoglu. Scola replaces 70% of what Pau Gasol does. Howard is an upgrade from Andrew Bynum. Turkoglu, gives the Lakers some much needed outside shooting, and ball handling, and allows the Lakers to have a trigger-man on offense (something they have been sorely lacking since Odom was sent to Dallas.)
Rockets Get: Pau Gasol (LAL). The Rockets need a star, and they get a star. They now have a strong starting-five of Kyle Lowry, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger, Pau Gasol, Samuel Dalembert with a lot of young assets.
Magic Get: Andrew Bynum (LAL) and Kevin Martin (HOU). The Magic are going to lose Dwight, so why not get a strong center to replace 80% of what he does (and, shh, this is a secret: he's an upgrade on the offensive end) and a stud shooting guard to boot. The Magic can essentially run the same offense with Bynum that they do with Howard, and now they can look to move some of their flotsam (Jason Richardson's miserably new contract comes to mind, as does Chris Duhon) while already ridding themselves of Turkoglu's nasty deal. This allows them to amnesty one of the aforementioned toxic assets (Richardson, Duhon, maybe even Nelson)
Trade #2: Lakers' Fans Wet Dream
Lakers Get: Deron Williams (NJ) and Dwight Howard (ORL). They automatically have the best three-man core in the NBA with a great distributor/scorer (Williams), elite scorer (Bryant) and elite rebounder/defender (Howard.) Enough said. It is not happening though. So cool your jets Laker fans.
Nets Get: Pau Gasol (LAL). If the Nets do not get Howard this season, Williams is going to Dallas (the worst kept secret in the NBA.) So, why not get rid of him now, and get an All-NBA power forward to play alongside Brook Lopez when he is healthy.
Magic Get: Andrew Bynum (LAL). See above.
Trade #3: Building for the Future
Lakers Get: Josh Smith (ATL), Michael Beasley (MIN), Derrick Williams (MIN), Malcolm Lee (MIN) and Minnesota's 2013 First Round Pick. The Lakers get younger at power forward (Smith) and establish more of a defensive mindset in doing so. They also acquire a young combo-forward (Williams) who looks to have a promising career in the NBA, and will be an upgrade over the Metta World Peace-Walton-Ebanks-Barnes Pu-Pu platter at the small forward position. They get a young point guard (Lee) who may give them something, and another asset (Minny's 2013 1st-Rounder) that may help them down the road. Beasley is a risk worth taking, as he might be able to provide a spark off the bench for a team in desperate need of a bench presence, and they would own his Bird rights, thereby allowing them to resign him for a franchise-friendly number. I think this is a big win for the Lakers as they also free themselves of Walton's contract, allowing them to amnesty Metta World Peace.
Timberwolves Get: Pau Gasol (LAL) and the Lakers 2012 2nd Round Draft Pick. They trade a bunch of small pieces - many of whom do not fit together - for a stud big man, who gets to reunite with his countryman (Rubio) and another strong big man (Love - who plays further from the basket, thereby allowing Gasol to operate below the free-throw line) on a team run by an offensive genius (Rick Adelman.) They would have a strong core with Rubio-Love-Gasol and spare parts, and maybe they strike gold with a couple of 2nd round picks down the road.
Hawks Get: Luke Walton (LAL), Anthony Randolph (MIN) and Nikola Pekovic (MIN). The Hawks get rid of a big contract (because Joe Johnson is virtually unmovable, Smith has to be the one to go) and immediately amnesty Walton, thereby picking up two young assets in Randolph and Pekovic. Pekovic is a starting-caliber center, who, paired with Horford, would combine to make a formidable front court. Randolph is still young, and still has upside, and could be a jack-of-all trades for a team that desperately needs something new. The big win here for Atlanta is moving Horford to his natural position of power forward, when he returns from injury, and absolving itself of nearly $10 million in contract guarantees.
Finishing Note: NBA Inequities
The NBA is a league of have and have nots. Just look at the disparity in talent between the Charlotte Bobcats and the Miami Heat. Case closed. However, what bothers me, is that a team can buy out a player, and that the same player can then go ahead and play for the team of his choosing, essentially making two salaries. In this case, the player is Chris Kaman, who is rumored to be heading to Miami after a buyout from the New Orleans Hornets. While this move would, in my opinion, guarantee the Heat the championship this season (Kaman is a great low-post player and rebounder and a competent defensive big man) the bigger issue is that the Hornets (who, by the way are owned by the NBA) would be giving up one of the biggest assets they acquired from the LA Clippers (in the Chris Paul deal) for nothing. Sure, they might save a million dollars or so, but wasn't the hold up on the Chris Paul deal always about inequity? Given that Eric Gordon is out for the season (and seemingly never healthy) and unlikely to sign with the Hornets for the long term; that Al-Farouq Aminu is a bit player; and that the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Pick is likely going to be a late-lottery pick at best, how is the Clipper's accepted-offer for Chris Paul in any way, shape or form, better than what the Lakers/Rockets could have guaranteed.
Now, one of the primary pieces from that deal is going to be bought out of his deal (allowing him to walk away with 90% of what he is owed) and the league-owned Hornets will be left with squat.
Sometimes the NBA makes me happy, and proud, to be a fan (see: Lin, Jeremy). Other times, I am able to see through the facade of bullshit that continually comes out of the league office, which ruins the integrity of the sport.
Thursday, February 9, 2012
All Star Selections
With few exceptions in the sports world, nothing angers me more than the "fan vote" for the All-Star team. This seemingly harmless idea resulted in players like Steve Francis and Tracy McGrady consistently being voted to start for the Western Conference in the annual inter-conference layup line that is the All-Star game (though much of that has to do with Yao Ming's success in the NBA and David Stern allowing international fans to vote as well... as if the Chinese manipulating their currency and owning half of our debt wasn't enough, they force us to endure "Stevie Franchise" as an All-Star starter?)
Knowing this, I was not surprised when the All-Star starters were announced last week. The Eastern Conference will feature Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade in the back court and LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard up front. Aside from Anthony (more on him later) all of these choices make sense. Derrick Rose is arguably the best point guard in the NBA (it's either him or Chris Paul, who will be starting for the Western Conference) while James and Howard are the best players at their respective positions. Despite missing a good deal of time earlier this season, Wade is still the best shooting guard east of The Staples Center.
The Western Conference will pit the dynamicLaker back court of Kobe Bryant and the aforementioned Chris Paul, while Andrew Bynum, Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin round out the starting five. With the exception of Griffin, the Western starters all make sense. Andrew Bynum is the second best best pure center in the game, plain and simple. Outside of LeBron James, Kevin Durant is the best small forward. As for the best guards in the NBA, I think a two-on-two match up pitting Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul against Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose - with bragging rights on the line - would be incredibly entertaining. As with the Eastern squad, the Western Conference team left me with only one question mark: Blake Griffin?
Let's start out east with Carmelo Anthony. While no one can realistically deny his talent, Carmelo Anthony is not a worthy starter. He is currently shooting worse than 40.0% from the field, and below 30.0% from behind the three-point line. His 22.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per game is his lowest since his sophomore season in the league. Add to that the fact that he is an atrocious defender and is not a power forward, and it is quite clear that this spot is best reserved for someone else. And that someone, at least in my humble opinion, is Chris Bosh. Unlike Anthony, Bosh has played in every one of his team's games, and has done so in an incredibly efficient manner (averaging over 19 points and nearly 8 boards a night, while shooting over 50.0% from the field.) Bear in mind that Bosh is posting said averages while playing "third fiddle" on a very strong Miami Heat team, while Anthony is the number one option on a 8-13 Knicks team that will not be a contender for anything this Spring.
On the left coast, Blake Griffin is starting because he is a human highlight reel. His 21 point-11 rebound/game average is nice, but he is a woeful defender, and is being outplayed by a worthy adversary who have been overlooked. Kevin Love, averaging 25 points and nearly 14 rebounds per game while shooting over 37% from beyond the three-point arc, has vastly improved as a defender, and is no longer a liability on that end of the floor for the Minnesota Timberwolves. His team is also on the verge of playoff contention, and it didn't require adding an all-world point guard (Paul) to ensure that his team would be competitive this year.
Comparing Anthony with Bosh and Griffin with Love, it is quite clear why Carmelo and Blake were selected... they are brand names, and while Bosh and Love provide a lot of no-nonsense, winning plays, they do not play with as much flash as Anthony and Griffin. Given that it is an all-star game, I suppose I can live with that justification.
Soon the coaches will have their chance to fill out the remaining seven roster spots for each conference. Given that it is their job to know, coaches tend to have a better handle on who is truly deserving of being selected to an all-star team. Nevertheless, I have made it my job to comment on everything-NBA, and below I have made my selections for the Eastern and Western Conference reserves. I have accounted for little more than player statistics and the system they play in, and I have tried to discount career numbers and players that fit a certain position. Comment as you want, deride as you may, but I firmly believe these reserves are deserving of a trip to Orlando later this month.
Eastern Conference Reserves:
Guards: Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams and Brandon Jennings. The first two were no-brainers. But Jennings' personal success this season has really helped Milwaukee in Bogut's absence.
Forwards: Andre Iguodala, Paul Pierce and Chris Bosh. Iguodala was the toughest choice of the three, but I feel that he has been a more integral player in his team's success this season than Luol Deng, the only other forward I gave heavy consideration to.
Center: Roy Hibbert. With appologies to Tyson Chandler, the Indiana Pacers have played beyond expectations this season, and Hibbert is a big reason why. Additionally, an 8-13 Knicks team really does not need more than one representative at the All-Star game.
Western Conference Reserves:
Guards: Russell Westbrook, Steve Nash and Tony Parker. While Nash is the only "pure" point guard of the three, all have excelled this season, and all three deserve a spot on the Western Conference bench.
Forwards: Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol. All three could start (though Gasol is definitely on the decline) and all three will get a lot of burn in Orlando.
Center: Marc Gasol. He has been able to hold down the fort in Zach Randolph's absence from Memphis, and his numbers back up the story. Without him, Memphis would be a very mediocre team.
Knowing this, I was not surprised when the All-Star starters were announced last week. The Eastern Conference will feature Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade in the back court and LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard up front. Aside from Anthony (more on him later) all of these choices make sense. Derrick Rose is arguably the best point guard in the NBA (it's either him or Chris Paul, who will be starting for the Western Conference) while James and Howard are the best players at their respective positions. Despite missing a good deal of time earlier this season, Wade is still the best shooting guard east of The Staples Center.
The Western Conference will pit the dynamic
Let's start out east with Carmelo Anthony. While no one can realistically deny his talent, Carmelo Anthony is not a worthy starter. He is currently shooting worse than 40.0% from the field, and below 30.0% from behind the three-point line. His 22.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per game is his lowest since his sophomore season in the league. Add to that the fact that he is an atrocious defender and is not a power forward, and it is quite clear that this spot is best reserved for someone else. And that someone, at least in my humble opinion, is Chris Bosh. Unlike Anthony, Bosh has played in every one of his team's games, and has done so in an incredibly efficient manner (averaging over 19 points and nearly 8 boards a night, while shooting over 50.0% from the field.) Bear in mind that Bosh is posting said averages while playing "third fiddle" on a very strong Miami Heat team, while Anthony is the number one option on a 8-13 Knicks team that will not be a contender for anything this Spring.
On the left coast, Blake Griffin is starting because he is a human highlight reel. His 21 point-11 rebound/game average is nice, but he is a woeful defender, and is being outplayed by a worthy adversary who have been overlooked. Kevin Love, averaging 25 points and nearly 14 rebounds per game while shooting over 37% from beyond the three-point arc, has vastly improved as a defender, and is no longer a liability on that end of the floor for the Minnesota Timberwolves. His team is also on the verge of playoff contention, and it didn't require adding an all-world point guard (Paul) to ensure that his team would be competitive this year.
Comparing Anthony with Bosh and Griffin with Love, it is quite clear why Carmelo and Blake were selected... they are brand names, and while Bosh and Love provide a lot of no-nonsense, winning plays, they do not play with as much flash as Anthony and Griffin. Given that it is an all-star game, I suppose I can live with that justification.
Soon the coaches will have their chance to fill out the remaining seven roster spots for each conference. Given that it is their job to know, coaches tend to have a better handle on who is truly deserving of being selected to an all-star team. Nevertheless, I have made it my job to comment on everything-NBA, and below I have made my selections for the Eastern and Western Conference reserves. I have accounted for little more than player statistics and the system they play in, and I have tried to discount career numbers and players that fit a certain position. Comment as you want, deride as you may, but I firmly believe these reserves are deserving of a trip to Orlando later this month.
Eastern Conference Reserves:
Guards: Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams and Brandon Jennings. The first two were no-brainers. But Jennings' personal success this season has really helped Milwaukee in Bogut's absence.
Forwards: Andre Iguodala, Paul Pierce and Chris Bosh. Iguodala was the toughest choice of the three, but I feel that he has been a more integral player in his team's success this season than Luol Deng, the only other forward I gave heavy consideration to.
Center: Roy Hibbert. With appologies to Tyson Chandler, the Indiana Pacers have played beyond expectations this season, and Hibbert is a big reason why. Additionally, an 8-13 Knicks team really does not need more than one representative at the All-Star game.
Western Conference Reserves:
Guards: Russell Westbrook, Steve Nash and Tony Parker. While Nash is the only "pure" point guard of the three, all have excelled this season, and all three deserve a spot on the Western Conference bench.
Forwards: Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol. All three could start (though Gasol is definitely on the decline) and all three will get a lot of burn in Orlando.
Center: Marc Gasol. He has been able to hold down the fort in Zach Randolph's absence from Memphis, and his numbers back up the story. Without him, Memphis would be a very mediocre team.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
2012: Who Should Be on the Olympic Team???
The debate over who should, and should not, be included on the U.S. Olympic Basketball Team will rage on for the next few months. Pundits will attempt to convince you that they truly know which players will complement one another the best. Like those talking heads, I too will weigh in on this topic.
After the U.S. Men's disastrous showing in Athens in 2004, David Stern, Jerry Colangelo and the U.S. Olympic Association got serious about turning around the program that had been the gold standard for global basketball. By the Summer of 2007, it was clear that they had succeeded in their endeavor, even if the first reboot in August of 2006 failed to past muster.
In August 2007, I watched in amazement as the team, split in to two squads, blue and white, and played a nationally-televised scrimmage. On one team you had LeBron and Wade, and on the other you had the old veteran, Kobe Bryant, and the rookie, Kevin Durant. During a timeout with less than a minute to go in the game, Bryant took Durant under his shoulder, literally, and explained to him how to better execute a defensive assignment. Durant nodded, and the two returned to the court to finish out the game. Down one point, Durant inbounded the ball, Kobe caught it near the top of the key, and, in dramatic fashion, nailed the game-winning basket as time expired. Right there, right then, we saw the present and the future of U.S. Basketball.
The following summer, Kobe would once again lead the U.S. to victory, this time against their arch-rival, Spain. The gold medal game was much closer than many people remember, and were it not for Bryant and Wade's defensive stops and clutch shooting in the last eight minutes of the game, Pau Gasol and Ricky Rubio would have been perched along the top position of the dais. Since then, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard have not participated in Olympic Basketball games. Nevertheless, a new crop of All-Stars have played an integral part in keeping the Men's team at the top of Olympic Basketball.
Led by Durant, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, the 2010 Men's team was victorious in the FIBA Championship in Istanbul. Though veterans like Lamar Odom and Tyson Chandler played a huge part in establishing a defensive mindset for the rest of the squad, it was the young-guns who really helped further the program, allowing the team to succeed in the absence of such big names as Kobe and LeBron.
Below are the finalists for the 2012 U.S. Basketball Team. While I am confident that I could create a successful team including some players not mentioned on the list below, I will stick to the list, make my picks, and explain why certain players belong in London, and why others are not right for this team, or perhaps not right for international basketball... yet.
Finalists:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Tyson Chandler,
Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Andre Iguodala, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Lamar Odom, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams.
Who's Out:
Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love Lamar Odom, and Russell Westbrook.
Why They're Out:
Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler and Lamar Odom: They're too old and they don't fit in to the future plans for Team U.S.A. Billups is still a strong-willed leader, and a terrific clutch shooter. Nevertheless, on a team that is sure to carry Chris Paul, Derrick Rose and Deron Williams, Billups is the odd man out. Chandler is a great defensive anchor in the middle, but he is incredibly limited on the other end of the court. While Team U.S.A. will never be short of offense with players like LeBron, Wade and Kobe around to pour in buckets, Chandler is not a good fit for an international basketball team. He doesn't stretch the defense like other international big men (think Pau Gasol or Luis Scola) and there is a recent invitee who is a better fit to play up front (Spoiler Alert: his first name rhymes with "JaMarcus.") While the same argument can be made about Dwight Howard, D12 is a transcendent defensive player, and he cannot be omitted from this team. As for Odom, his recent play in Dallas, his age, and his undefined position make him a sure-fire candidate to be cut before the team heads across the pond. While he is great at initiating the offense, can play virtually every position on defense, and is an adept shooter from outside, I just can't see him making it over guys like Bosh, Aldridge, or even Kevin Love.
Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook: They are not ready for the international game. In international basketball, the most important skill that a player must possess on the offensive end is the ability to shoot a jump shot. For Westbrook this is less of an issue as his blazing speed allows him to blow by any defender. For Griffin however, this is a major blow to his chances to join the team in London. Griffin - like Westbrook - is a great athlete, and he might be the best dunker in the NBA. Nevertheless, his offensive game is severely limited to dunks, put-backs, and the occasional up-and-under. Unlike Westbrook, Griffin is also a woeful defender and can not be trusted to defend players like Pau or Marc Gasol. While I fully expect both of these guys to join the team in 2016, I think that Team U.S.A. would be detrimentally affected by having them on the court this summer.
Andre Iguodala: He is a great "jack of all trades, master of none," and with guys like LeBron James Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant and Rudy Gay likely to make the team, there are too many wing players as is. Iguodala also possesses a rather shaky outside shot, and while he is one of the ten best defenders in the NBA, once again you need to have a strong jump shot to make it to the Olympics.
Eric Gordon and Kevin Love: These guys are the wild card players. If Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge don't get the nod to join the 12-man roster, I believe these will be the two players who fill out the roster. Eric Gordon is the perfect player to man the 2-spot for the U.S. Men's team. Gordon is a prolific outside shooter, he is a bulldog of a defender, and an underrated passer. He is likely to be kept off the team this Summer as he is recovering from a litany of injuries and his future is a bit in question as he might try to play on a one year deal with New Orleans before exercising his free agency in the Summer of 2013. As for Love, if he were a better defender, he would be the prototypical international big man. He is the best shooter taller than 6'9" in the NBA who doesn't have a German accent. He is an amazing passer and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Dennis Rodman. He is also incredibly cerebral and a true competitor. As I said, these are the two guys I can possibly see making it this Summer over Aldridge and Gay.
Who's In:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, and Deron Williams.
Why They're In:
Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade and Deron Williams: They've been there before, they got the job done, and they still have more than enough in the tank to bring home the gold in the Summer of 2012. This is an incredibly strong eight-man core of returning players and gives Team U.S.A. everything that they need. Antony is as pure a scorer as anyone in the NBA, and his ability to play either forward spot in the international game is an added asset for the American team. Bosh is a great inside-outside big man, a player whose defense is underrated, and a player capable of spelling Dwight Howard for long periods of the game. Kobe Bryant is still one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, a player capable of shutting down the opposing team's best wing scorer on any given night, a prolific scorer, and above all else a player who wants to win. Dwight Howard gives the team their defensive presence inside and in international basketball, where tip-ins are allowed and not considered offensive goal-tending, his impact on the offensive end is much needed. LeBron James is the best all-around athlete in the NBA, a point guard in a power forward's body, and a two-time MVP. Chris Paul is the best pure passer, and the best defender for speedy point guards. Dwayne Wade is another great scorer, a man who possesses a beautiful mid-range jump shot, and someone who - like Bryant - is able to turn it on defensively and set the tone for the rest of the team. Deron Williams is a powerful point guard with a more refined offensive skill-set than Chris Paul, and while he is not quite the defender that Paul is he provides the American team with a different look against bigger guards.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay: In my opinion Aldridge is the perfect big man for Team U.S.A. He is a great inside scorer, but is also the best mid-range jump shooting big man outside of Pau Gasol in the NBA. He is a long, agile defender who is capable of manning the 5-position for the American team, and he knows what it takes to win, having helped Portland to the playoffs last year despite all the injuries they sustained. Rudy Gay is another fantastic scorer, who is also able to lock down opposing wings on defense. He showed a lot of growth, maturity and leadership in the Summer of 2010 in Istanbul, and if he is healthy, he should absolutely join the team in London. If either one of these guys is left off the squad, then Kevin Love and Eric Gordon should be added to replace them.
Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose: They are the future of American Basketball. Kevin Durant is a fantastic basketball player and is only getting better. This season he has already increased his free throw rate and has taken the ball inside more, adding another dimension to his offensive game. On defense, he won't be asked to do too much, but his ability to get in passing lanes with his long arms will allow the Americans to get the fast break moving and score easy buckets. Derrick Rose is the reigning MVP, a player who once was unable to shoot and is now a deadly jump shooter, a strong passer and defender, and a bona fide leader. If healthy, these two players will likely play on the next three Olympic teams for the United States.
So, those are my thoughts, my picks, and my feelings on U.S.A. basketball. Who makes the squad remains to be seen, but if there ever was a year when the United States needs to ensure that they bring the right guys to the games, this is it. Spain is much improved from their 2008 team. And with a front court that includes Serge Ibaka and the Gasol brothers, a back court full of shooters to go along with Ricky Rubio's virtuoso passing performances, and a cohesive spirit unlike any other nation's team, they could beat the Americans. That is if Team U.S.A. does not come to play.
After the U.S. Men's disastrous showing in Athens in 2004, David Stern, Jerry Colangelo and the U.S. Olympic Association got serious about turning around the program that had been the gold standard for global basketball. By the Summer of 2007, it was clear that they had succeeded in their endeavor, even if the first reboot in August of 2006 failed to past muster.
In August 2007, I watched in amazement as the team, split in to two squads, blue and white, and played a nationally-televised scrimmage. On one team you had LeBron and Wade, and on the other you had the old veteran, Kobe Bryant, and the rookie, Kevin Durant. During a timeout with less than a minute to go in the game, Bryant took Durant under his shoulder, literally, and explained to him how to better execute a defensive assignment. Durant nodded, and the two returned to the court to finish out the game. Down one point, Durant inbounded the ball, Kobe caught it near the top of the key, and, in dramatic fashion, nailed the game-winning basket as time expired. Right there, right then, we saw the present and the future of U.S. Basketball.
The following summer, Kobe would once again lead the U.S. to victory, this time against their arch-rival, Spain. The gold medal game was much closer than many people remember, and were it not for Bryant and Wade's defensive stops and clutch shooting in the last eight minutes of the game, Pau Gasol and Ricky Rubio would have been perched along the top position of the dais. Since then, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard have not participated in Olympic Basketball games. Nevertheless, a new crop of All-Stars have played an integral part in keeping the Men's team at the top of Olympic Basketball.
Led by Durant, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, the 2010 Men's team was victorious in the FIBA Championship in Istanbul. Though veterans like Lamar Odom and Tyson Chandler played a huge part in establishing a defensive mindset for the rest of the squad, it was the young-guns who really helped further the program, allowing the team to succeed in the absence of such big names as Kobe and LeBron.
Below are the finalists for the 2012 U.S. Basketball Team. While I am confident that I could create a successful team including some players not mentioned on the list below, I will stick to the list, make my picks, and explain why certain players belong in London, and why others are not right for this team, or perhaps not right for international basketball... yet.
Finalists:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Tyson Chandler,
Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Andre Iguodala, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Lamar Odom, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams.
Who's Out:
Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love Lamar Odom, and Russell Westbrook.
Why They're Out:
Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler and Lamar Odom: They're too old and they don't fit in to the future plans for Team U.S.A. Billups is still a strong-willed leader, and a terrific clutch shooter. Nevertheless, on a team that is sure to carry Chris Paul, Derrick Rose and Deron Williams, Billups is the odd man out. Chandler is a great defensive anchor in the middle, but he is incredibly limited on the other end of the court. While Team U.S.A. will never be short of offense with players like LeBron, Wade and Kobe around to pour in buckets, Chandler is not a good fit for an international basketball team. He doesn't stretch the defense like other international big men (think Pau Gasol or Luis Scola) and there is a recent invitee who is a better fit to play up front (Spoiler Alert: his first name rhymes with "JaMarcus.") While the same argument can be made about Dwight Howard, D12 is a transcendent defensive player, and he cannot be omitted from this team. As for Odom, his recent play in Dallas, his age, and his undefined position make him a sure-fire candidate to be cut before the team heads across the pond. While he is great at initiating the offense, can play virtually every position on defense, and is an adept shooter from outside, I just can't see him making it over guys like Bosh, Aldridge, or even Kevin Love.
Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook: They are not ready for the international game. In international basketball, the most important skill that a player must possess on the offensive end is the ability to shoot a jump shot. For Westbrook this is less of an issue as his blazing speed allows him to blow by any defender. For Griffin however, this is a major blow to his chances to join the team in London. Griffin - like Westbrook - is a great athlete, and he might be the best dunker in the NBA. Nevertheless, his offensive game is severely limited to dunks, put-backs, and the occasional up-and-under. Unlike Westbrook, Griffin is also a woeful defender and can not be trusted to defend players like Pau or Marc Gasol. While I fully expect both of these guys to join the team in 2016, I think that Team U.S.A. would be detrimentally affected by having them on the court this summer.
Andre Iguodala: He is a great "jack of all trades, master of none," and with guys like LeBron James Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant and Rudy Gay likely to make the team, there are too many wing players as is. Iguodala also possesses a rather shaky outside shot, and while he is one of the ten best defenders in the NBA, once again you need to have a strong jump shot to make it to the Olympics.
Eric Gordon and Kevin Love: These guys are the wild card players. If Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge don't get the nod to join the 12-man roster, I believe these will be the two players who fill out the roster. Eric Gordon is the perfect player to man the 2-spot for the U.S. Men's team. Gordon is a prolific outside shooter, he is a bulldog of a defender, and an underrated passer. He is likely to be kept off the team this Summer as he is recovering from a litany of injuries and his future is a bit in question as he might try to play on a one year deal with New Orleans before exercising his free agency in the Summer of 2013. As for Love, if he were a better defender, he would be the prototypical international big man. He is the best shooter taller than 6'9" in the NBA who doesn't have a German accent. He is an amazing passer and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Dennis Rodman. He is also incredibly cerebral and a true competitor. As I said, these are the two guys I can possibly see making it this Summer over Aldridge and Gay.
Who's In:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, and Deron Williams.
Why They're In:
Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade and Deron Williams: They've been there before, they got the job done, and they still have more than enough in the tank to bring home the gold in the Summer of 2012. This is an incredibly strong eight-man core of returning players and gives Team U.S.A. everything that they need. Antony is as pure a scorer as anyone in the NBA, and his ability to play either forward spot in the international game is an added asset for the American team. Bosh is a great inside-outside big man, a player whose defense is underrated, and a player capable of spelling Dwight Howard for long periods of the game. Kobe Bryant is still one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, a player capable of shutting down the opposing team's best wing scorer on any given night, a prolific scorer, and above all else a player who wants to win. Dwight Howard gives the team their defensive presence inside and in international basketball, where tip-ins are allowed and not considered offensive goal-tending, his impact on the offensive end is much needed. LeBron James is the best all-around athlete in the NBA, a point guard in a power forward's body, and a two-time MVP. Chris Paul is the best pure passer, and the best defender for speedy point guards. Dwayne Wade is another great scorer, a man who possesses a beautiful mid-range jump shot, and someone who - like Bryant - is able to turn it on defensively and set the tone for the rest of the team. Deron Williams is a powerful point guard with a more refined offensive skill-set than Chris Paul, and while he is not quite the defender that Paul is he provides the American team with a different look against bigger guards.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay: In my opinion Aldridge is the perfect big man for Team U.S.A. He is a great inside scorer, but is also the best mid-range jump shooting big man outside of Pau Gasol in the NBA. He is a long, agile defender who is capable of manning the 5-position for the American team, and he knows what it takes to win, having helped Portland to the playoffs last year despite all the injuries they sustained. Rudy Gay is another fantastic scorer, who is also able to lock down opposing wings on defense. He showed a lot of growth, maturity and leadership in the Summer of 2010 in Istanbul, and if he is healthy, he should absolutely join the team in London. If either one of these guys is left off the squad, then Kevin Love and Eric Gordon should be added to replace them.
Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose: They are the future of American Basketball. Kevin Durant is a fantastic basketball player and is only getting better. This season he has already increased his free throw rate and has taken the ball inside more, adding another dimension to his offensive game. On defense, he won't be asked to do too much, but his ability to get in passing lanes with his long arms will allow the Americans to get the fast break moving and score easy buckets. Derrick Rose is the reigning MVP, a player who once was unable to shoot and is now a deadly jump shooter, a strong passer and defender, and a bona fide leader. If healthy, these two players will likely play on the next three Olympic teams for the United States.
So, those are my thoughts, my picks, and my feelings on U.S.A. basketball. Who makes the squad remains to be seen, but if there ever was a year when the United States needs to ensure that they bring the right guys to the games, this is it. Spain is much improved from their 2008 team. And with a front court that includes Serge Ibaka and the Gasol brothers, a back court full of shooters to go along with Ricky Rubio's virtuoso passing performances, and a cohesive spirit unlike any other nation's team, they could beat the Americans. That is if Team U.S.A. does not come to play.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
The Wild Wild West
I realize that I failed to put out my annual Western Conference predictions prior to the season beginning, so this may be a bit after the fact, but better late than never. The following is the order in which I believe the teams will finish the regular season, not necessarily who will represent the West in the NBA Finals. Whereas the Eastern Conference is very top heavy, (I really don't see the Eastern Conference sending a representative outside of South Beach of Chi-Town) the Western Conference is wide open. Though the Oklahoma City Thunder are the heavy favorites to finish with the top seed, the compressed format for this year's schedule will set up an interesting number of playoff battles, much like the lockout-shortened 1998-1999 season. So, consider the following both my predictions for the way the regular season will play out for the Western Conference teams, and what might eventually happen in the second season.
Predicted Standings:
Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Memphis Grizzlies
Lottery Teams
9. Houston Rockets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. New Orleans Hornets
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Utah Jazz
15. Phoenix Suns
The Suns and Jazz have just looked awful in the early part of this season, and have little to play for. Both teams are better off moving in to full rebuilding mode rather than trying to eke out a playoff spot, only to be swept by a team like the Thunder (and believe me, neither the Suns nor the Jazz have a shot at the playoffs.)
The Kings, Warriors, and Hornets are all young teams with a lot of pieces, but none of them seemingly have any idea how to properly use the talent they have. The Kings have a logjam in the back court, and play zero defense. The Warriors also play zero defense, and lack a legitimate front court defensive presence. The Hornets were hastily put together by Czar Stern, and while they will be a contender in the future (a nucleus of Eric Gordon, Al Farouq Aminu, the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, their own 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, and whatever else they can get for some of their movable assets - e.g. Chris Kaman - is promising) they are not going anywhere right now.
The Timberwolves are a frisky team. They have one of the best young players in the game (Kevin Love) lots of depth, particularly on the wings (Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Martell Webster, Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington, etc...) and point guard (KAHNNNNN!!!!) and they have the perfect coach, in Rick Adelman, to motivate a young team to win 30+ games, which might be enough to get them in to the playoffs this season. But they will still have to deal with the growing pains that come with young teams. Watch out for them in the future, they will be a halfway decent team, and this year they will be an eminently watchable franchise, a step up from the past few years under Kurt Rambis.
The Houston Rockets, like Minnesota, has a deep roster (a must for success in a shortened regular season) and plenty of scoring punch in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Courtney Lee) but they lack a true center, and in the Western Conference you need a big man to win (or a transcendent All-Star named Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitzki). So, until Houston can solve their problems in the middle (and Samuel Dalembert is not the answer) they will be on the outside looking in.
That leaves us with eight teams that will make the playoffs. And this is the year when seeding really doesn't matter. Both John Hollinger at ESPN.com and Bill Simmons from Grantland.com have intimated that what really matters, particularly for older teams like San Antonio, Dallas and the Lakers, is merely getting in. While Denver and Portland can boast about their depth (particularly Denver, a team that can go 10 or 11 deep) the playoffs is about having a strong 7-man rotation. In a 7-game series, I would take the Lakers rotation of Kobe-Pau-Bynum-World Peace-Blake-McRoberts and Troy Murphy over the Ty Lawson, Nene, Arron Afflalo, Gallinari and crew. The same goes for a potential Portland-Clippers matchup. In that potential series, the Clippers would walk on to the court each night with the two best players (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) wearing red white and blue. The really interesting match-ups - at least among those teams I think are capable of making the playoffs are the Thunder-Grizzlies rematch from last season, and the perennial Texas grudge match between San Antonio and Dallas.
In the former match up, everything turns on whether Rudy Gay can be the difference maker that the Grizzlies lacked in last year's epic 7-game series against the Thunder, and whether the Thunder's big men will be able to contain both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. While OKC is the overwhelming favorite to come out of the West, I can absolutely see the Grizzlies stealing a page out of the 1999 New York Knick's playoff playbook.
A possible Dallas-San Antonio match up might seem fairly even, but if the first few games of this season have shown me anything about the Spurs, it's this: Tim Duncan is old, and he is no longer a difference maker on either end of the court. In that series I would expect Dirk to go bonkers and I would confidently pick Dallas in 5 or 6 games.
Moving along with these picks, the Lakers would have a chance to avenge their embarrassing playoff exit to the Dallas Mavericks, and go up against a familiar foe, and former friend, Lamar Odom. It is hard to make a prediction on who would win a potential series between Dallas and L.A. as I think the Lakers are not done dealing. With an $8.9 million trade exception (from the Lamar Odom salary dump) and the veterans minimum available to throw at players who may become available (remember, that J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Aaron Brooks will be freed from China by Jack Bauer in March.) Aaron Brooks might be of particular interest to the Lakers, as they need a speedy point guard to match up with guys like CP3, Parker, Mike Conley, etc... They could also look to pry some talent from Minnesota - Luke Ridnour and Michael Beasley would provide them with some upgrade at the 1 and the 3, and inject them with some much-needed youth up front - with the aforementioned trade exception. Anyway, in a potential series between these two teams, I would expect LA to exorcise their demons and take down Dallas.
It's the other series that provides the real intrigue, at least for me. If Memphis were to match up with the Clippers, we might have one of the most intriguing and even series in years. While Mike Conley is not Chris Paul, he is good enough that he won't get burned off of every pick-and-roll in the way a slower, older point guard a la Derek Fisher might. Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, and Jeremy Pargo would provide ample ammunition to fend off Chauncey Billups, Randy Foye, Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe. Up front, Blake Griffin cannot contain Zach Randolph, and Randolph cannot contain Griffin. The Clippers are woefully thin at center. When - not if - DeAndre Jordan gets in foul trouble, the Clippers will be seeing a lot of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans "protecting" Griffin's back, whereas the Grizzlies have Marc Gasol, and can lean on Dante Cummingham for quality minutes. However, it's on the wing where the Grizz have a true advantage over the Clips. While Caron Butler is a "nice" player, he will be overmatched by Rudy Gay, and Ryan Gomes will not be able to contain Sam Young. Finally, the Clippers are coached by Vinny del Negro, and I just don't trust him.
While "Lob City" will be fun to watch, it will probably be another year before they become a true contender (which will of course necessitate firing del Negro). As such, I would expect Memphis to advance to the Western Conference Finals to face the Los Angeles Lakers.
Only in a lockout-shortened season could a potential Western Conference Finals feature the 6 seed and the 8 seed. While the Lakers have the front court depth (McRoberts and Murphy provide them with big bodies to throw at Gasol and Randolph, and don't sleep on Derrick Caracter coming back to provide them with a 5th big man by the playoffs) to contend with the Grizzlies, it will really come down to the Lakers ability to defend a speedy point guard like Conley, and a smooth three-man like Rudy Gay for them to make it back to the NBA Finals.
In a year which started off with Commissioner David Stern meddling with a potential three-team trade to the point where at least four franchises were detrimentally affected (LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics) I can absolutely see it ending with Czar Stern rigging the Western Conference Finals to ensure that the NBA Finals ratings are high with a potential Los Angeles - Chicago or Los Angeles - Miami series, rather than having to worry about filling FedEx Forum in Memphis.
The NBA, where shady Commissioners happens!
Predicted Standings:
Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Memphis Grizzlies
Lottery Teams
9. Houston Rockets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. New Orleans Hornets
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Utah Jazz
15. Phoenix Suns
The Suns and Jazz have just looked awful in the early part of this season, and have little to play for. Both teams are better off moving in to full rebuilding mode rather than trying to eke out a playoff spot, only to be swept by a team like the Thunder (and believe me, neither the Suns nor the Jazz have a shot at the playoffs.)
The Kings, Warriors, and Hornets are all young teams with a lot of pieces, but none of them seemingly have any idea how to properly use the talent they have. The Kings have a logjam in the back court, and play zero defense. The Warriors also play zero defense, and lack a legitimate front court defensive presence. The Hornets were hastily put together by Czar Stern, and while they will be a contender in the future (a nucleus of Eric Gordon, Al Farouq Aminu, the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, their own 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, and whatever else they can get for some of their movable assets - e.g. Chris Kaman - is promising) they are not going anywhere right now.
The Timberwolves are a frisky team. They have one of the best young players in the game (Kevin Love) lots of depth, particularly on the wings (Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Martell Webster, Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington, etc...) and point guard (KAHNNNNN!!!!) and they have the perfect coach, in Rick Adelman, to motivate a young team to win 30+ games, which might be enough to get them in to the playoffs this season. But they will still have to deal with the growing pains that come with young teams. Watch out for them in the future, they will be a halfway decent team, and this year they will be an eminently watchable franchise, a step up from the past few years under Kurt Rambis.
The Houston Rockets, like Minnesota, has a deep roster (a must for success in a shortened regular season) and plenty of scoring punch in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Courtney Lee) but they lack a true center, and in the Western Conference you need a big man to win (or a transcendent All-Star named Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitzki). So, until Houston can solve their problems in the middle (and Samuel Dalembert is not the answer) they will be on the outside looking in.
That leaves us with eight teams that will make the playoffs. And this is the year when seeding really doesn't matter. Both John Hollinger at ESPN.com and Bill Simmons from Grantland.com have intimated that what really matters, particularly for older teams like San Antonio, Dallas and the Lakers, is merely getting in. While Denver and Portland can boast about their depth (particularly Denver, a team that can go 10 or 11 deep) the playoffs is about having a strong 7-man rotation. In a 7-game series, I would take the Lakers rotation of Kobe-Pau-Bynum-World Peace-Blake-McRoberts and Troy Murphy over the Ty Lawson, Nene, Arron Afflalo, Gallinari and crew. The same goes for a potential Portland-Clippers matchup. In that potential series, the Clippers would walk on to the court each night with the two best players (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) wearing red white and blue. The really interesting match-ups - at least among those teams I think are capable of making the playoffs are the Thunder-Grizzlies rematch from last season, and the perennial Texas grudge match between San Antonio and Dallas.
In the former match up, everything turns on whether Rudy Gay can be the difference maker that the Grizzlies lacked in last year's epic 7-game series against the Thunder, and whether the Thunder's big men will be able to contain both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. While OKC is the overwhelming favorite to come out of the West, I can absolutely see the Grizzlies stealing a page out of the 1999 New York Knick's playoff playbook.
A possible Dallas-San Antonio match up might seem fairly even, but if the first few games of this season have shown me anything about the Spurs, it's this: Tim Duncan is old, and he is no longer a difference maker on either end of the court. In that series I would expect Dirk to go bonkers and I would confidently pick Dallas in 5 or 6 games.
Moving along with these picks, the Lakers would have a chance to avenge their embarrassing playoff exit to the Dallas Mavericks, and go up against a familiar foe, and former friend, Lamar Odom. It is hard to make a prediction on who would win a potential series between Dallas and L.A. as I think the Lakers are not done dealing. With an $8.9 million trade exception (from the Lamar Odom salary dump) and the veterans minimum available to throw at players who may become available (remember, that J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Aaron Brooks will be freed from China by Jack Bauer in March.) Aaron Brooks might be of particular interest to the Lakers, as they need a speedy point guard to match up with guys like CP3, Parker, Mike Conley, etc... They could also look to pry some talent from Minnesota - Luke Ridnour and Michael Beasley would provide them with some upgrade at the 1 and the 3, and inject them with some much-needed youth up front - with the aforementioned trade exception. Anyway, in a potential series between these two teams, I would expect LA to exorcise their demons and take down Dallas.
It's the other series that provides the real intrigue, at least for me. If Memphis were to match up with the Clippers, we might have one of the most intriguing and even series in years. While Mike Conley is not Chris Paul, he is good enough that he won't get burned off of every pick-and-roll in the way a slower, older point guard a la Derek Fisher might. Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, and Jeremy Pargo would provide ample ammunition to fend off Chauncey Billups, Randy Foye, Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe. Up front, Blake Griffin cannot contain Zach Randolph, and Randolph cannot contain Griffin. The Clippers are woefully thin at center. When - not if - DeAndre Jordan gets in foul trouble, the Clippers will be seeing a lot of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans "protecting" Griffin's back, whereas the Grizzlies have Marc Gasol, and can lean on Dante Cummingham for quality minutes. However, it's on the wing where the Grizz have a true advantage over the Clips. While Caron Butler is a "nice" player, he will be overmatched by Rudy Gay, and Ryan Gomes will not be able to contain Sam Young. Finally, the Clippers are coached by Vinny del Negro, and I just don't trust him.
While "Lob City" will be fun to watch, it will probably be another year before they become a true contender (which will of course necessitate firing del Negro). As such, I would expect Memphis to advance to the Western Conference Finals to face the Los Angeles Lakers.
Only in a lockout-shortened season could a potential Western Conference Finals feature the 6 seed and the 8 seed. While the Lakers have the front court depth (McRoberts and Murphy provide them with big bodies to throw at Gasol and Randolph, and don't sleep on Derrick Caracter coming back to provide them with a 5th big man by the playoffs) to contend with the Grizzlies, it will really come down to the Lakers ability to defend a speedy point guard like Conley, and a smooth three-man like Rudy Gay for them to make it back to the NBA Finals.
In a year which started off with Commissioner David Stern meddling with a potential three-team trade to the point where at least four franchises were detrimentally affected (LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics) I can absolutely see it ending with Czar Stern rigging the Western Conference Finals to ensure that the NBA Finals ratings are high with a potential Los Angeles - Chicago or Los Angeles - Miami series, rather than having to worry about filling FedEx Forum in Memphis.
The NBA, where shady Commissioners happens!
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Eastern Conference Preview
Eastern Conference:
Running on Empty
15. Cleveland: There is very little to like in Cleveland in terms of the Cavaliers' chances this season. While rookie Kyrie Irving is projected by many to be the next great point guard, the fact that he has few quality players surrounding him on the wings will likely spell doom for the Cavs. The best thing for Cleveland is to finish with a high lottery pick and add some more pieces to a developing core of Irving and Tristan Thompson. Outside of those two, only other intriguing young players on the Cavs' roster is Omri Casspi (unless of course you're high on Alonzo Gee and Manny Harris.) Expected Win Total: 18.
14. Detroit: Though I expect them to finish with a better record than the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Detroit Pistons are probably in a worse position than their Central Division cohorts, as the Pistons are - and will continue to be - beleaguered by questionable contracts. They currently have a glut of young small forwards with Austin Daye, Jonas Jerekbo, and Kyle Singler, and somehow Joe Dumars - in all his wisdom - thought it was a good idea to sign Tayshaun Prince to a contract extension paying the 31-year old Wildcat an average of $11 million over the next three seasons. Add to that the lack of a true point guard, and a surplus of combo guards in Ben Gordon, Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey, and the Pistons don't have much to point to in terms of a bright spot in their future. Perhaps the one thing Dumars has done right over the past few years was drafting Greg Monroe out of Georgetown. The former Hoya showed flashes of brilliance last season, and perhaps he and Brandon Knight can team-up to form a formidable pick-and-roll tandem. Nevertheless, with onerous contracts assigned to Prince, Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, it is hard to see how the Pistons will improve internally. Like in Cleveland, it will have to come through the draft. Expected Win Total: 20
13. Charlotte: The Bobcats might have the least talented lineup in the NBA, but they have shown over the past few years that they can play defense. As such, I expect them to edge out Cleveland and Detroit in the Eastern Conference basement. The thought of a Tyrus-Thomas-Boris Diaw-Bismack Biyombo front line ensures that the Bobcats will finish last in the NBA in scoring, as their stable of guards (D.J. Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette, and Kemba Walker) leaves a lot to be desired as well. Michael Jordan is probably the worst owner in the Association, but Paul Silas has proven at every stop along the way that he knows how to get the most out of his players. Expected Win Total: 21
Rebuilding Mode
12. Toronto: The Raptors have a new coach (Dwane Casey) but the same old problem, they don't have a go-to scorer, and their lineup is a hodge-podge of poorly-fitting pieces. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement provision, which allows for each team to waive a player, and not have it count against them for luxury tax purposes, or the salary cap, seems tailor-made for this team. They will be paying center Andrea Bargnani $9.25 million this season to shoot three pointers and avoid grabbing rebounds, $9.75 million for Jose Calderon to make us wish that NBA contracts were not guaranteed, $7.6 million to a washed-up Leandro Barbosa (who has not been the same since he left Phoenix, and the comfort of having skip passes thrown his way from Steve Nash) and over $4.5 million to Linas Kleiza, who is a nice little player, but not for that money. Hopefully Dwane Casey can get Ed Davis and Amir Johnson to buy in to his defensive philosophy, as those big man are capable of being defensive stoppers, given proper coaching. Expected Win Total: 23
11. Washington: I fully expect John Wall to make "the leap" this season, and in so doing, improve the play of those around him. He has two talented scorers at the shooting guard position with Nick Young and Jordan Crawford signed up for this season, and athletes who can run the floor and protect the paint in JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche. I also think Rashard Lewis will be able to give them a lot more than people are expecting at the small forward position, and whenever Jan Vesely comes over they will have a pretty strong core of young ballers. I struggled with the idea of having the Wizards sneak in to the playoffs this season, as they have the type of depth that teams need to successfully navigate through a shortened and compressed season. Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Booker, and Chris Singleton should be able to give them strong minutes off the bench up front, while Maurice Evans should provide them with veteran leadership and a strong locker room voice. Though they might not be there yet, with a Wall-Young/Crawford-Singleton-Vesely/Blatche-McGee seven-man rotation, they should be a playoff team beginning next season and for a number of years thereafter. Expected Win Total: 27
Potential Playoff Fodder
10. Milwaukee: Once again, let me say it, depth matters in a compressed season. The Milwaukee Bucks never really had a chance last season to put the personnel out on the court that they had hoped to play. Injuries to Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings destroyed any chance they had of competing for a place in the post season. However, they have a very deep front court (Bogut, Drew Gooden, Jon Brockman, Tobias Harris, Larry Sanders, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jon Leuer and Ersan Ilyasova) and some new pieces on the wings (Mike Dunleavy and Stephen Jackson) that can help them in myriad ways. They should be able to improve upon their horrid offensive showing last year with their recent additions, but I still don't think they have the pieces to move up in to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Expected Win Total: 28
9. New Jersey: Though the Nets have depth (Jordan Farmer and Ben Uzoh backing up Deron Williams and plenty of bigs to spell Brook Lopez, including the newly resigned Kris Kardashian Humphries) they lack talent beyond Deron Williams. For everything Brook Lopez contributes on the offensive end, he regressed last season and pulled down a paltry 6.5 rebounds/game. Reportedly, the Nets' staff will be tracking all of Lopez' potential rebound opportunities, perhaps in a move to light a fire under his ass, but unless he can start playing like a true big man, Deron Williams will be left to do most of the heavy lifting. I like the addition of Marshon Brooks to this team, but unless New Jersey can swing a trade for Dwight Howard, I don't think they have the chops to make it to the second season. Expected Win Total: 30
One-and-Out in the Playoffs
8. Atlanta: Introducing my pick to see the greatest drop-off in play from the 2010 season in the Eastern Conference. While the Hawks return their starting five, (though Jeff Teague is likely to replace Kirk Hinrich at point guard to begin the season) the loss of Jamal Crawford cannot be understood solely through the lens of Crawford's ability to put the ball in the hoop. Rather, Crawford was at times the only player who was able to initiate the offense and score easy points for the Hawks. Atlanta will be relying more on the likes of Marvin Williams this season, and added veterans Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmonovic and Jerry Stackhouse are unlikely to give them much in the way of replacement value for Crawford. It is also quite possible that the Hawks deal defensive stalwart Josh Smith during the season, as ownership has shown a reluctance to exceed the luxury tax. If Atlanta were to make such a move, they would surely slide out of the playoff picture and back in to the lottery, erasing years of progress. Expected Win Total: 32
7. Philadelphia: Doug Collins shocked a lot of people last year when he coached the 76ers back in to the playoffs. The Sixers return with their lineup virtually intact, and have the requisite depth to deal with multiple back-to-back games. Jrue Holiday showed that he is a stud in the making last year, and should be able to add to his repertoire by taking over more of the offensive reigns from Andre Iguodala. Nevertheless, Iguodala might be the most underrated wing defender in the NBA right now. So long as Evan Turner, Lou Williams and Thadeus Young can give them some scoring from the wings, the Sixers should be fine on that end of the court. Elton Brand had a great bounce back season in 2010-2011, and if he can stay healthy, he will be a tremendous asset for Philadelphia this season. Spencer Hawes is slated as their starting center to begin the season, but I wouldn't sleep on rookie Nikola Vucevic out of USC. So long as he can continue hitting long jump shots and spacing the floor like he did in college, he will allow Coach Collins to play him in a lineup of Holiday, Williams, Iguodala, and Brand that should be able to challenge teams inside and out. Expected Win Total: 34
6. Orlando: Predicting the likelihood of success for the Orlando Magic is very difficult without first knowing the answer to the following question: how much longer will Dwight be playing in the shadow of the Epcot Center? In short, the Orlando Magic go as Dwight goes, and lately Dwight has given every hint that he wants to go...elsewhere. Otis Smith doubled-down in the off season, resigning Jason Richardson to a 4-year extension (always a risky move for a 30-year old shooting guard with a spotty history of injuries) and sending out the very productive Brandon Bass, for the over-hyped, undersized, defenseless and limited child known as Glen Davis. The former LSU Tiger was able to succeed in Boston despite his skill set. Without a transcendent point guard (Jameer Nelson is a fine little guard, but far from the visionary that is Rajon Rondo) or multiple shooters to surround him, Davis is likely to be exposed for what he is. Additionally, Dwight has not much growth on the offensive end and the other Magic players are getting a bit long in the tooth to provide the scoring punch and defensive stops to make this team a contender. I fully expect for Dwight to be wearing a different jersey by the time next year, though it is not clear whether he will be traded in-season. Expected Win Total: 39
Getting Frisky
5. New York: The Amare-Carmelo duo will play another season together without an entire training camp under the belt, but this time, they have some protection up front with the addition of NBA Finals "defensive ace" Tyson Chandler. Though I think his signing has been over hyped, he will be able to help the Knicks start the fast break more often with his ability to stop players in the post and stymie penetrating guards. Nevertheless, Chandler's addition came at the expense of the Knicks' back court, as it required New York to waive guard Chauncey Billups. Though the Knicks have since added Baron Davis - who is likely to be out for the first six plus weeks of the season with a back injury - their back court consists of Mike Bibby, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert. Unless that foursome can provide Mike D'Antoni with quality minutes and the ability to light it up from outside, it won't matter how much Amare and 'Melo can dazzle on Broadway. Expected Win Total: 41
4. Indiana: Not only does this team have a terrific, young core of players who are likely to be around for years to come (Darren Collison, George Hill, Paul George, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, David West, and Roy Hibbert) but they have the depth to compete this season and perhaps win a playoff series. David West gives them a proven power forward at a great price (though questions remain about his surgically-repaired knee), someone who can play the pick-and-roll or step out and hit a 17-foot jump shot, and allows Tyler Hansbrough to be an effective seventh man off the bench. Darren Collison will be pushed by the addition of George Hill, but I believe Hill's addition will have the effect of making both players reach their full potential, and, given Hill's length and shooting ability, it is quite possible the two will spend time together in the back court. Roy Hibbert provides the Pacers with a stable and solid presence in the middle, and Danny Granger - when healthy - is one of the more dynamic players in the NBA. I like what Indiana has right now, and I think it is only going to get better. Expected Win Total: 44
3. Boston: I am not sure what to make of Boston, or what to expect from them this season. I love the Brandon Bass trade, but I think adding players like Keyon Dooling, Sasha Pavlovic and Chris Wilcox does little to help them now, or in the future. No team will be hit as hard by the compressed schedule as the Boston Celtics, whose "Big Three" are an average of 35 years old. Nevertheless, this team knows how to win, they know how to play strong defense, and above all else, they trust one another. Expected Win Total: 46
The Contenders
2. Chicago: I have been vacillating on who will actually finish the season with the best record in the East, and while I believe it will eventually be the Bulls, I can't help but remember how effectively Miami shut down the Chicago offense. The addition of Rip Hamilton at shooting guard is a huge coup for the Bulls, as he provides them with a number of skills they were sorely lacking last season: shooting, the ability to score without the ball in his hands at all times, playoff experience, and a veteran voice in the locker room. Expect the same suffocating defense that Tom Thibodeau employed last season - and in past years in Boston - to remain this year, and there is no reason to think that Derrick Rose is done growing as a player. In the end, I truly believe the Bulls will be playing the Heat for the right to go to the NBA Finals. Expected Win Total: 52
1. Miami: As much as I dislike the way the Miami "Big Three" came together, they showed that they meant business in their very first season together. Were it not for LeBron James' unprecedented fourth-quarter collapses in the Finals against Dallas, the Heat would be the defending champs. This year they return the same team that came within one game of winning a championship, and add grizzled-veteran (pun intended) Shane Battier to the mix. Though his play last season was not quite what we have come to expect from the former Duke-product, Battier might be the perfect fit for this team. It is quite likely that he will see extended minutes as a "stretch-four" employing his aggressive brand of defense on opposing power forwards, while drawing the opponent out of the paint and knocking down corner-three-pointers. It is also common knowledge now that LeBron James has added a post-game to his repertoire (it only took him 8 years, but better late than never) which ought to keep opposing teams guessing when Miami sets up their half-court offense. Say what you want about LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh, but they are certainly the most talented three-man combination in the league right now. Expected Win Total: 54
Running on Empty
15. Cleveland: There is very little to like in Cleveland in terms of the Cavaliers' chances this season. While rookie Kyrie Irving is projected by many to be the next great point guard, the fact that he has few quality players surrounding him on the wings will likely spell doom for the Cavs. The best thing for Cleveland is to finish with a high lottery pick and add some more pieces to a developing core of Irving and Tristan Thompson. Outside of those two, only other intriguing young players on the Cavs' roster is Omri Casspi (unless of course you're high on Alonzo Gee and Manny Harris.) Expected Win Total: 18.
14. Detroit: Though I expect them to finish with a better record than the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Detroit Pistons are probably in a worse position than their Central Division cohorts, as the Pistons are - and will continue to be - beleaguered by questionable contracts. They currently have a glut of young small forwards with Austin Daye, Jonas Jerekbo, and Kyle Singler, and somehow Joe Dumars - in all his wisdom - thought it was a good idea to sign Tayshaun Prince to a contract extension paying the 31-year old Wildcat an average of $11 million over the next three seasons. Add to that the lack of a true point guard, and a surplus of combo guards in Ben Gordon, Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey, and the Pistons don't have much to point to in terms of a bright spot in their future. Perhaps the one thing Dumars has done right over the past few years was drafting Greg Monroe out of Georgetown. The former Hoya showed flashes of brilliance last season, and perhaps he and Brandon Knight can team-up to form a formidable pick-and-roll tandem. Nevertheless, with onerous contracts assigned to Prince, Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, it is hard to see how the Pistons will improve internally. Like in Cleveland, it will have to come through the draft. Expected Win Total: 20
13. Charlotte: The Bobcats might have the least talented lineup in the NBA, but they have shown over the past few years that they can play defense. As such, I expect them to edge out Cleveland and Detroit in the Eastern Conference basement. The thought of a Tyrus-Thomas-Boris Diaw-Bismack Biyombo front line ensures that the Bobcats will finish last in the NBA in scoring, as their stable of guards (D.J. Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette, and Kemba Walker) leaves a lot to be desired as well. Michael Jordan is probably the worst owner in the Association, but Paul Silas has proven at every stop along the way that he knows how to get the most out of his players. Expected Win Total: 21
Rebuilding Mode
12. Toronto: The Raptors have a new coach (Dwane Casey) but the same old problem, they don't have a go-to scorer, and their lineup is a hodge-podge of poorly-fitting pieces. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement provision, which allows for each team to waive a player, and not have it count against them for luxury tax purposes, or the salary cap, seems tailor-made for this team. They will be paying center Andrea Bargnani $9.25 million this season to shoot three pointers and avoid grabbing rebounds, $9.75 million for Jose Calderon to make us wish that NBA contracts were not guaranteed, $7.6 million to a washed-up Leandro Barbosa (who has not been the same since he left Phoenix, and the comfort of having skip passes thrown his way from Steve Nash) and over $4.5 million to Linas Kleiza, who is a nice little player, but not for that money. Hopefully Dwane Casey can get Ed Davis and Amir Johnson to buy in to his defensive philosophy, as those big man are capable of being defensive stoppers, given proper coaching. Expected Win Total: 23
11. Washington: I fully expect John Wall to make "the leap" this season, and in so doing, improve the play of those around him. He has two talented scorers at the shooting guard position with Nick Young and Jordan Crawford signed up for this season, and athletes who can run the floor and protect the paint in JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche. I also think Rashard Lewis will be able to give them a lot more than people are expecting at the small forward position, and whenever Jan Vesely comes over they will have a pretty strong core of young ballers. I struggled with the idea of having the Wizards sneak in to the playoffs this season, as they have the type of depth that teams need to successfully navigate through a shortened and compressed season. Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Booker, and Chris Singleton should be able to give them strong minutes off the bench up front, while Maurice Evans should provide them with veteran leadership and a strong locker room voice. Though they might not be there yet, with a Wall-Young/Crawford-Singleton-Vesely/Blatche-McGee seven-man rotation, they should be a playoff team beginning next season and for a number of years thereafter. Expected Win Total: 27
Potential Playoff Fodder
10. Milwaukee: Once again, let me say it, depth matters in a compressed season. The Milwaukee Bucks never really had a chance last season to put the personnel out on the court that they had hoped to play. Injuries to Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings destroyed any chance they had of competing for a place in the post season. However, they have a very deep front court (Bogut, Drew Gooden, Jon Brockman, Tobias Harris, Larry Sanders, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jon Leuer and Ersan Ilyasova) and some new pieces on the wings (Mike Dunleavy and Stephen Jackson) that can help them in myriad ways. They should be able to improve upon their horrid offensive showing last year with their recent additions, but I still don't think they have the pieces to move up in to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Expected Win Total: 28
9. New Jersey: Though the Nets have depth (Jordan Farmer and Ben Uzoh backing up Deron Williams and plenty of bigs to spell Brook Lopez, including the newly resigned Kris Kardashian Humphries) they lack talent beyond Deron Williams. For everything Brook Lopez contributes on the offensive end, he regressed last season and pulled down a paltry 6.5 rebounds/game. Reportedly, the Nets' staff will be tracking all of Lopez' potential rebound opportunities, perhaps in a move to light a fire under his ass, but unless he can start playing like a true big man, Deron Williams will be left to do most of the heavy lifting. I like the addition of Marshon Brooks to this team, but unless New Jersey can swing a trade for Dwight Howard, I don't think they have the chops to make it to the second season. Expected Win Total: 30
One-and-Out in the Playoffs
8. Atlanta: Introducing my pick to see the greatest drop-off in play from the 2010 season in the Eastern Conference. While the Hawks return their starting five, (though Jeff Teague is likely to replace Kirk Hinrich at point guard to begin the season) the loss of Jamal Crawford cannot be understood solely through the lens of Crawford's ability to put the ball in the hoop. Rather, Crawford was at times the only player who was able to initiate the offense and score easy points for the Hawks. Atlanta will be relying more on the likes of Marvin Williams this season, and added veterans Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmonovic and Jerry Stackhouse are unlikely to give them much in the way of replacement value for Crawford. It is also quite possible that the Hawks deal defensive stalwart Josh Smith during the season, as ownership has shown a reluctance to exceed the luxury tax. If Atlanta were to make such a move, they would surely slide out of the playoff picture and back in to the lottery, erasing years of progress. Expected Win Total: 32
7. Philadelphia: Doug Collins shocked a lot of people last year when he coached the 76ers back in to the playoffs. The Sixers return with their lineup virtually intact, and have the requisite depth to deal with multiple back-to-back games. Jrue Holiday showed that he is a stud in the making last year, and should be able to add to his repertoire by taking over more of the offensive reigns from Andre Iguodala. Nevertheless, Iguodala might be the most underrated wing defender in the NBA right now. So long as Evan Turner, Lou Williams and Thadeus Young can give them some scoring from the wings, the Sixers should be fine on that end of the court. Elton Brand had a great bounce back season in 2010-2011, and if he can stay healthy, he will be a tremendous asset for Philadelphia this season. Spencer Hawes is slated as their starting center to begin the season, but I wouldn't sleep on rookie Nikola Vucevic out of USC. So long as he can continue hitting long jump shots and spacing the floor like he did in college, he will allow Coach Collins to play him in a lineup of Holiday, Williams, Iguodala, and Brand that should be able to challenge teams inside and out. Expected Win Total: 34
6. Orlando: Predicting the likelihood of success for the Orlando Magic is very difficult without first knowing the answer to the following question: how much longer will Dwight be playing in the shadow of the Epcot Center? In short, the Orlando Magic go as Dwight goes, and lately Dwight has given every hint that he wants to go...elsewhere. Otis Smith doubled-down in the off season, resigning Jason Richardson to a 4-year extension (always a risky move for a 30-year old shooting guard with a spotty history of injuries) and sending out the very productive Brandon Bass, for the over-hyped, undersized, defenseless and limited child known as Glen Davis. The former LSU Tiger was able to succeed in Boston despite his skill set. Without a transcendent point guard (Jameer Nelson is a fine little guard, but far from the visionary that is Rajon Rondo) or multiple shooters to surround him, Davis is likely to be exposed for what he is. Additionally, Dwight has not much growth on the offensive end and the other Magic players are getting a bit long in the tooth to provide the scoring punch and defensive stops to make this team a contender. I fully expect for Dwight to be wearing a different jersey by the time next year, though it is not clear whether he will be traded in-season. Expected Win Total: 39
Getting Frisky
5. New York: The Amare-Carmelo duo will play another season together without an entire training camp under the belt, but this time, they have some protection up front with the addition of NBA Finals "defensive ace" Tyson Chandler. Though I think his signing has been over hyped, he will be able to help the Knicks start the fast break more often with his ability to stop players in the post and stymie penetrating guards. Nevertheless, Chandler's addition came at the expense of the Knicks' back court, as it required New York to waive guard Chauncey Billups. Though the Knicks have since added Baron Davis - who is likely to be out for the first six plus weeks of the season with a back injury - their back court consists of Mike Bibby, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert. Unless that foursome can provide Mike D'Antoni with quality minutes and the ability to light it up from outside, it won't matter how much Amare and 'Melo can dazzle on Broadway. Expected Win Total: 41
4. Indiana: Not only does this team have a terrific, young core of players who are likely to be around for years to come (Darren Collison, George Hill, Paul George, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, David West, and Roy Hibbert) but they have the depth to compete this season and perhaps win a playoff series. David West gives them a proven power forward at a great price (though questions remain about his surgically-repaired knee), someone who can play the pick-and-roll or step out and hit a 17-foot jump shot, and allows Tyler Hansbrough to be an effective seventh man off the bench. Darren Collison will be pushed by the addition of George Hill, but I believe Hill's addition will have the effect of making both players reach their full potential, and, given Hill's length and shooting ability, it is quite possible the two will spend time together in the back court. Roy Hibbert provides the Pacers with a stable and solid presence in the middle, and Danny Granger - when healthy - is one of the more dynamic players in the NBA. I like what Indiana has right now, and I think it is only going to get better. Expected Win Total: 44
3. Boston: I am not sure what to make of Boston, or what to expect from them this season. I love the Brandon Bass trade, but I think adding players like Keyon Dooling, Sasha Pavlovic and Chris Wilcox does little to help them now, or in the future. No team will be hit as hard by the compressed schedule as the Boston Celtics, whose "Big Three" are an average of 35 years old. Nevertheless, this team knows how to win, they know how to play strong defense, and above all else, they trust one another. Expected Win Total: 46
The Contenders
2. Chicago: I have been vacillating on who will actually finish the season with the best record in the East, and while I believe it will eventually be the Bulls, I can't help but remember how effectively Miami shut down the Chicago offense. The addition of Rip Hamilton at shooting guard is a huge coup for the Bulls, as he provides them with a number of skills they were sorely lacking last season: shooting, the ability to score without the ball in his hands at all times, playoff experience, and a veteran voice in the locker room. Expect the same suffocating defense that Tom Thibodeau employed last season - and in past years in Boston - to remain this year, and there is no reason to think that Derrick Rose is done growing as a player. In the end, I truly believe the Bulls will be playing the Heat for the right to go to the NBA Finals. Expected Win Total: 52
1. Miami: As much as I dislike the way the Miami "Big Three" came together, they showed that they meant business in their very first season together. Were it not for LeBron James' unprecedented fourth-quarter collapses in the Finals against Dallas, the Heat would be the defending champs. This year they return the same team that came within one game of winning a championship, and add grizzled-veteran (pun intended) Shane Battier to the mix. Though his play last season was not quite what we have come to expect from the former Duke-product, Battier might be the perfect fit for this team. It is quite likely that he will see extended minutes as a "stretch-four" employing his aggressive brand of defense on opposing power forwards, while drawing the opponent out of the paint and knocking down corner-three-pointers. It is also common knowledge now that LeBron James has added a post-game to his repertoire (it only took him 8 years, but better late than never) which ought to keep opposing teams guessing when Miami sets up their half-court offense. Say what you want about LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh, but they are certainly the most talented three-man combination in the league right now. Expected Win Total: 54
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