The debate over who should, and should not, be included on the U.S. Olympic Basketball Team will rage on for the next few months. Pundits will attempt to convince you that they truly know which players will complement one another the best. Like those talking heads, I too will weigh in on this topic.
After the U.S. Men's disastrous showing in Athens in 2004, David Stern, Jerry Colangelo and the U.S. Olympic Association got serious about turning around the program that had been the gold standard for global basketball. By the Summer of 2007, it was clear that they had succeeded in their endeavor, even if the first reboot in August of 2006 failed to past muster.
In August 2007, I watched in amazement as the team, split in to two squads, blue and white, and played a nationally-televised scrimmage. On one team you had LeBron and Wade, and on the other you had the old veteran, Kobe Bryant, and the rookie, Kevin Durant. During a timeout with less than a minute to go in the game, Bryant took Durant under his shoulder, literally, and explained to him how to better execute a defensive assignment. Durant nodded, and the two returned to the court to finish out the game. Down one point, Durant inbounded the ball, Kobe caught it near the top of the key, and, in dramatic fashion, nailed the game-winning basket as time expired. Right there, right then, we saw the present and the future of U.S. Basketball.
The following summer, Kobe would once again lead the U.S. to victory, this time against their arch-rival, Spain. The gold medal game was much closer than many people remember, and were it not for Bryant and Wade's defensive stops and clutch shooting in the last eight minutes of the game, Pau Gasol and Ricky Rubio would have been perched along the top position of the dais. Since then, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard have not participated in Olympic Basketball games. Nevertheless, a new crop of All-Stars have played an integral part in keeping the Men's team at the top of Olympic Basketball.
Led by Durant, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, the 2010 Men's team was victorious in the FIBA Championship in Istanbul. Though veterans like Lamar Odom and Tyson Chandler played a huge part in establishing a defensive mindset for the rest of the squad, it was the young-guns who really helped further the program, allowing the team to succeed in the absence of such big names as Kobe and LeBron.
Below are the finalists for the 2012 U.S. Basketball Team. While I am confident that I could create a successful team including some players not mentioned on the list below, I will stick to the list, make my picks, and explain why certain players belong in London, and why others are not right for this team, or perhaps not right for international basketball... yet.
Finalists:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Tyson Chandler,
Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Andre Iguodala, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Lamar Odom, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams.
Who's Out:
Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love Lamar Odom, and Russell Westbrook.
Why They're Out:
Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler and Lamar Odom: They're too old and they don't fit in to the future plans for Team U.S.A. Billups is still a strong-willed leader, and a terrific clutch shooter. Nevertheless, on a team that is sure to carry Chris Paul, Derrick Rose and Deron Williams, Billups is the odd man out. Chandler is a great defensive anchor in the middle, but he is incredibly limited on the other end of the court. While Team U.S.A. will never be short of offense with players like LeBron, Wade and Kobe around to pour in buckets, Chandler is not a good fit for an international basketball team. He doesn't stretch the defense like other international big men (think Pau Gasol or Luis Scola) and there is a recent invitee who is a better fit to play up front (Spoiler Alert: his first name rhymes with "JaMarcus.") While the same argument can be made about Dwight Howard, D12 is a transcendent defensive player, and he cannot be omitted from this team. As for Odom, his recent play in Dallas, his age, and his undefined position make him a sure-fire candidate to be cut before the team heads across the pond. While he is great at initiating the offense, can play virtually every position on defense, and is an adept shooter from outside, I just can't see him making it over guys like Bosh, Aldridge, or even Kevin Love.
Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook: They are not ready for the international game. In international basketball, the most important skill that a player must possess on the offensive end is the ability to shoot a jump shot. For Westbrook this is less of an issue as his blazing speed allows him to blow by any defender. For Griffin however, this is a major blow to his chances to join the team in London. Griffin - like Westbrook - is a great athlete, and he might be the best dunker in the NBA. Nevertheless, his offensive game is severely limited to dunks, put-backs, and the occasional up-and-under. Unlike Westbrook, Griffin is also a woeful defender and can not be trusted to defend players like Pau or Marc Gasol. While I fully expect both of these guys to join the team in 2016, I think that Team U.S.A. would be detrimentally affected by having them on the court this summer.
Andre Iguodala: He is a great "jack of all trades, master of none," and with guys like LeBron James Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant and Rudy Gay likely to make the team, there are too many wing players as is. Iguodala also possesses a rather shaky outside shot, and while he is one of the ten best defenders in the NBA, once again you need to have a strong jump shot to make it to the Olympics.
Eric Gordon and Kevin Love: These guys are the wild card players. If Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge don't get the nod to join the 12-man roster, I believe these will be the two players who fill out the roster. Eric Gordon is the perfect player to man the 2-spot for the U.S. Men's team. Gordon is a prolific outside shooter, he is a bulldog of a defender, and an underrated passer. He is likely to be kept off the team this Summer as he is recovering from a litany of injuries and his future is a bit in question as he might try to play on a one year deal with New Orleans before exercising his free agency in the Summer of 2013. As for Love, if he were a better defender, he would be the prototypical international big man. He is the best shooter taller than 6'9" in the NBA who doesn't have a German accent. He is an amazing passer and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Dennis Rodman. He is also incredibly cerebral and a true competitor. As I said, these are the two guys I can possibly see making it this Summer over Aldridge and Gay.
Who's In:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, and Deron Williams.
Why They're In:
Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade and Deron Williams: They've been there before, they got the job done, and they still have more than enough in the tank to bring home the gold in the Summer of 2012. This is an incredibly strong eight-man core of returning players and gives Team U.S.A. everything that they need. Antony is as pure a scorer as anyone in the NBA, and his ability to play either forward spot in the international game is an added asset for the American team. Bosh is a great inside-outside big man, a player whose defense is underrated, and a player capable of spelling Dwight Howard for long periods of the game. Kobe Bryant is still one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, a player capable of shutting down the opposing team's best wing scorer on any given night, a prolific scorer, and above all else a player who wants to win. Dwight Howard gives the team their defensive presence inside and in international basketball, where tip-ins are allowed and not considered offensive goal-tending, his impact on the offensive end is much needed. LeBron James is the best all-around athlete in the NBA, a point guard in a power forward's body, and a two-time MVP. Chris Paul is the best pure passer, and the best defender for speedy point guards. Dwayne Wade is another great scorer, a man who possesses a beautiful mid-range jump shot, and someone who - like Bryant - is able to turn it on defensively and set the tone for the rest of the team. Deron Williams is a powerful point guard with a more refined offensive skill-set than Chris Paul, and while he is not quite the defender that Paul is he provides the American team with a different look against bigger guards.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay: In my opinion Aldridge is the perfect big man for Team U.S.A. He is a great inside scorer, but is also the best mid-range jump shooting big man outside of Pau Gasol in the NBA. He is a long, agile defender who is capable of manning the 5-position for the American team, and he knows what it takes to win, having helped Portland to the playoffs last year despite all the injuries they sustained. Rudy Gay is another fantastic scorer, who is also able to lock down opposing wings on defense. He showed a lot of growth, maturity and leadership in the Summer of 2010 in Istanbul, and if he is healthy, he should absolutely join the team in London. If either one of these guys is left off the squad, then Kevin Love and Eric Gordon should be added to replace them.
Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose: They are the future of American Basketball. Kevin Durant is a fantastic basketball player and is only getting better. This season he has already increased his free throw rate and has taken the ball inside more, adding another dimension to his offensive game. On defense, he won't be asked to do too much, but his ability to get in passing lanes with his long arms will allow the Americans to get the fast break moving and score easy buckets. Derrick Rose is the reigning MVP, a player who once was unable to shoot and is now a deadly jump shooter, a strong passer and defender, and a bona fide leader. If healthy, these two players will likely play on the next three Olympic teams for the United States.
So, those are my thoughts, my picks, and my feelings on U.S.A. basketball. Who makes the squad remains to be seen, but if there ever was a year when the United States needs to ensure that they bring the right guys to the games, this is it. Spain is much improved from their 2008 team. And with a front court that includes Serge Ibaka and the Gasol brothers, a back court full of shooters to go along with Ricky Rubio's virtuoso passing performances, and a cohesive spirit unlike any other nation's team, they could beat the Americans. That is if Team U.S.A. does not come to play.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Sunday, January 1, 2012
The Wild Wild West
I realize that I failed to put out my annual Western Conference predictions prior to the season beginning, so this may be a bit after the fact, but better late than never. The following is the order in which I believe the teams will finish the regular season, not necessarily who will represent the West in the NBA Finals. Whereas the Eastern Conference is very top heavy, (I really don't see the Eastern Conference sending a representative outside of South Beach of Chi-Town) the Western Conference is wide open. Though the Oklahoma City Thunder are the heavy favorites to finish with the top seed, the compressed format for this year's schedule will set up an interesting number of playoff battles, much like the lockout-shortened 1998-1999 season. So, consider the following both my predictions for the way the regular season will play out for the Western Conference teams, and what might eventually happen in the second season.
Predicted Standings:
Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Memphis Grizzlies
Lottery Teams
9. Houston Rockets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. New Orleans Hornets
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Utah Jazz
15. Phoenix Suns
The Suns and Jazz have just looked awful in the early part of this season, and have little to play for. Both teams are better off moving in to full rebuilding mode rather than trying to eke out a playoff spot, only to be swept by a team like the Thunder (and believe me, neither the Suns nor the Jazz have a shot at the playoffs.)
The Kings, Warriors, and Hornets are all young teams with a lot of pieces, but none of them seemingly have any idea how to properly use the talent they have. The Kings have a logjam in the back court, and play zero defense. The Warriors also play zero defense, and lack a legitimate front court defensive presence. The Hornets were hastily put together by Czar Stern, and while they will be a contender in the future (a nucleus of Eric Gordon, Al Farouq Aminu, the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, their own 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, and whatever else they can get for some of their movable assets - e.g. Chris Kaman - is promising) they are not going anywhere right now.
The Timberwolves are a frisky team. They have one of the best young players in the game (Kevin Love) lots of depth, particularly on the wings (Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Martell Webster, Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington, etc...) and point guard (KAHNNNNN!!!!) and they have the perfect coach, in Rick Adelman, to motivate a young team to win 30+ games, which might be enough to get them in to the playoffs this season. But they will still have to deal with the growing pains that come with young teams. Watch out for them in the future, they will be a halfway decent team, and this year they will be an eminently watchable franchise, a step up from the past few years under Kurt Rambis.
The Houston Rockets, like Minnesota, has a deep roster (a must for success in a shortened regular season) and plenty of scoring punch in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Courtney Lee) but they lack a true center, and in the Western Conference you need a big man to win (or a transcendent All-Star named Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitzki). So, until Houston can solve their problems in the middle (and Samuel Dalembert is not the answer) they will be on the outside looking in.
That leaves us with eight teams that will make the playoffs. And this is the year when seeding really doesn't matter. Both John Hollinger at ESPN.com and Bill Simmons from Grantland.com have intimated that what really matters, particularly for older teams like San Antonio, Dallas and the Lakers, is merely getting in. While Denver and Portland can boast about their depth (particularly Denver, a team that can go 10 or 11 deep) the playoffs is about having a strong 7-man rotation. In a 7-game series, I would take the Lakers rotation of Kobe-Pau-Bynum-World Peace-Blake-McRoberts and Troy Murphy over the Ty Lawson, Nene, Arron Afflalo, Gallinari and crew. The same goes for a potential Portland-Clippers matchup. In that potential series, the Clippers would walk on to the court each night with the two best players (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) wearing red white and blue. The really interesting match-ups - at least among those teams I think are capable of making the playoffs are the Thunder-Grizzlies rematch from last season, and the perennial Texas grudge match between San Antonio and Dallas.
In the former match up, everything turns on whether Rudy Gay can be the difference maker that the Grizzlies lacked in last year's epic 7-game series against the Thunder, and whether the Thunder's big men will be able to contain both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. While OKC is the overwhelming favorite to come out of the West, I can absolutely see the Grizzlies stealing a page out of the 1999 New York Knick's playoff playbook.
A possible Dallas-San Antonio match up might seem fairly even, but if the first few games of this season have shown me anything about the Spurs, it's this: Tim Duncan is old, and he is no longer a difference maker on either end of the court. In that series I would expect Dirk to go bonkers and I would confidently pick Dallas in 5 or 6 games.
Moving along with these picks, the Lakers would have a chance to avenge their embarrassing playoff exit to the Dallas Mavericks, and go up against a familiar foe, and former friend, Lamar Odom. It is hard to make a prediction on who would win a potential series between Dallas and L.A. as I think the Lakers are not done dealing. With an $8.9 million trade exception (from the Lamar Odom salary dump) and the veterans minimum available to throw at players who may become available (remember, that J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Aaron Brooks will be freed from China by Jack Bauer in March.) Aaron Brooks might be of particular interest to the Lakers, as they need a speedy point guard to match up with guys like CP3, Parker, Mike Conley, etc... They could also look to pry some talent from Minnesota - Luke Ridnour and Michael Beasley would provide them with some upgrade at the 1 and the 3, and inject them with some much-needed youth up front - with the aforementioned trade exception. Anyway, in a potential series between these two teams, I would expect LA to exorcise their demons and take down Dallas.
It's the other series that provides the real intrigue, at least for me. If Memphis were to match up with the Clippers, we might have one of the most intriguing and even series in years. While Mike Conley is not Chris Paul, he is good enough that he won't get burned off of every pick-and-roll in the way a slower, older point guard a la Derek Fisher might. Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, and Jeremy Pargo would provide ample ammunition to fend off Chauncey Billups, Randy Foye, Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe. Up front, Blake Griffin cannot contain Zach Randolph, and Randolph cannot contain Griffin. The Clippers are woefully thin at center. When - not if - DeAndre Jordan gets in foul trouble, the Clippers will be seeing a lot of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans "protecting" Griffin's back, whereas the Grizzlies have Marc Gasol, and can lean on Dante Cummingham for quality minutes. However, it's on the wing where the Grizz have a true advantage over the Clips. While Caron Butler is a "nice" player, he will be overmatched by Rudy Gay, and Ryan Gomes will not be able to contain Sam Young. Finally, the Clippers are coached by Vinny del Negro, and I just don't trust him.
While "Lob City" will be fun to watch, it will probably be another year before they become a true contender (which will of course necessitate firing del Negro). As such, I would expect Memphis to advance to the Western Conference Finals to face the Los Angeles Lakers.
Only in a lockout-shortened season could a potential Western Conference Finals feature the 6 seed and the 8 seed. While the Lakers have the front court depth (McRoberts and Murphy provide them with big bodies to throw at Gasol and Randolph, and don't sleep on Derrick Caracter coming back to provide them with a 5th big man by the playoffs) to contend with the Grizzlies, it will really come down to the Lakers ability to defend a speedy point guard like Conley, and a smooth three-man like Rudy Gay for them to make it back to the NBA Finals.
In a year which started off with Commissioner David Stern meddling with a potential three-team trade to the point where at least four franchises were detrimentally affected (LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics) I can absolutely see it ending with Czar Stern rigging the Western Conference Finals to ensure that the NBA Finals ratings are high with a potential Los Angeles - Chicago or Los Angeles - Miami series, rather than having to worry about filling FedEx Forum in Memphis.
The NBA, where shady Commissioners happens!
Predicted Standings:
Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Memphis Grizzlies
Lottery Teams
9. Houston Rockets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. New Orleans Hornets
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Utah Jazz
15. Phoenix Suns
The Suns and Jazz have just looked awful in the early part of this season, and have little to play for. Both teams are better off moving in to full rebuilding mode rather than trying to eke out a playoff spot, only to be swept by a team like the Thunder (and believe me, neither the Suns nor the Jazz have a shot at the playoffs.)
The Kings, Warriors, and Hornets are all young teams with a lot of pieces, but none of them seemingly have any idea how to properly use the talent they have. The Kings have a logjam in the back court, and play zero defense. The Warriors also play zero defense, and lack a legitimate front court defensive presence. The Hornets were hastily put together by Czar Stern, and while they will be a contender in the future (a nucleus of Eric Gordon, Al Farouq Aminu, the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, their own 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, and whatever else they can get for some of their movable assets - e.g. Chris Kaman - is promising) they are not going anywhere right now.
The Timberwolves are a frisky team. They have one of the best young players in the game (Kevin Love) lots of depth, particularly on the wings (Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Martell Webster, Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington, etc...) and point guard (KAHNNNNN!!!!) and they have the perfect coach, in Rick Adelman, to motivate a young team to win 30+ games, which might be enough to get them in to the playoffs this season. But they will still have to deal with the growing pains that come with young teams. Watch out for them in the future, they will be a halfway decent team, and this year they will be an eminently watchable franchise, a step up from the past few years under Kurt Rambis.
The Houston Rockets, like Minnesota, has a deep roster (a must for success in a shortened regular season) and plenty of scoring punch in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Courtney Lee) but they lack a true center, and in the Western Conference you need a big man to win (or a transcendent All-Star named Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitzki). So, until Houston can solve their problems in the middle (and Samuel Dalembert is not the answer) they will be on the outside looking in.
That leaves us with eight teams that will make the playoffs. And this is the year when seeding really doesn't matter. Both John Hollinger at ESPN.com and Bill Simmons from Grantland.com have intimated that what really matters, particularly for older teams like San Antonio, Dallas and the Lakers, is merely getting in. While Denver and Portland can boast about their depth (particularly Denver, a team that can go 10 or 11 deep) the playoffs is about having a strong 7-man rotation. In a 7-game series, I would take the Lakers rotation of Kobe-Pau-Bynum-World Peace-Blake-McRoberts and Troy Murphy over the Ty Lawson, Nene, Arron Afflalo, Gallinari and crew. The same goes for a potential Portland-Clippers matchup. In that potential series, the Clippers would walk on to the court each night with the two best players (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) wearing red white and blue. The really interesting match-ups - at least among those teams I think are capable of making the playoffs are the Thunder-Grizzlies rematch from last season, and the perennial Texas grudge match between San Antonio and Dallas.
In the former match up, everything turns on whether Rudy Gay can be the difference maker that the Grizzlies lacked in last year's epic 7-game series against the Thunder, and whether the Thunder's big men will be able to contain both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. While OKC is the overwhelming favorite to come out of the West, I can absolutely see the Grizzlies stealing a page out of the 1999 New York Knick's playoff playbook.
A possible Dallas-San Antonio match up might seem fairly even, but if the first few games of this season have shown me anything about the Spurs, it's this: Tim Duncan is old, and he is no longer a difference maker on either end of the court. In that series I would expect Dirk to go bonkers and I would confidently pick Dallas in 5 or 6 games.
Moving along with these picks, the Lakers would have a chance to avenge their embarrassing playoff exit to the Dallas Mavericks, and go up against a familiar foe, and former friend, Lamar Odom. It is hard to make a prediction on who would win a potential series between Dallas and L.A. as I think the Lakers are not done dealing. With an $8.9 million trade exception (from the Lamar Odom salary dump) and the veterans minimum available to throw at players who may become available (remember, that J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Aaron Brooks will be freed from China by Jack Bauer in March.) Aaron Brooks might be of particular interest to the Lakers, as they need a speedy point guard to match up with guys like CP3, Parker, Mike Conley, etc... They could also look to pry some talent from Minnesota - Luke Ridnour and Michael Beasley would provide them with some upgrade at the 1 and the 3, and inject them with some much-needed youth up front - with the aforementioned trade exception. Anyway, in a potential series between these two teams, I would expect LA to exorcise their demons and take down Dallas.
It's the other series that provides the real intrigue, at least for me. If Memphis were to match up with the Clippers, we might have one of the most intriguing and even series in years. While Mike Conley is not Chris Paul, he is good enough that he won't get burned off of every pick-and-roll in the way a slower, older point guard a la Derek Fisher might. Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, and Jeremy Pargo would provide ample ammunition to fend off Chauncey Billups, Randy Foye, Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe. Up front, Blake Griffin cannot contain Zach Randolph, and Randolph cannot contain Griffin. The Clippers are woefully thin at center. When - not if - DeAndre Jordan gets in foul trouble, the Clippers will be seeing a lot of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans "protecting" Griffin's back, whereas the Grizzlies have Marc Gasol, and can lean on Dante Cummingham for quality minutes. However, it's on the wing where the Grizz have a true advantage over the Clips. While Caron Butler is a "nice" player, he will be overmatched by Rudy Gay, and Ryan Gomes will not be able to contain Sam Young. Finally, the Clippers are coached by Vinny del Negro, and I just don't trust him.
While "Lob City" will be fun to watch, it will probably be another year before they become a true contender (which will of course necessitate firing del Negro). As such, I would expect Memphis to advance to the Western Conference Finals to face the Los Angeles Lakers.
Only in a lockout-shortened season could a potential Western Conference Finals feature the 6 seed and the 8 seed. While the Lakers have the front court depth (McRoberts and Murphy provide them with big bodies to throw at Gasol and Randolph, and don't sleep on Derrick Caracter coming back to provide them with a 5th big man by the playoffs) to contend with the Grizzlies, it will really come down to the Lakers ability to defend a speedy point guard like Conley, and a smooth three-man like Rudy Gay for them to make it back to the NBA Finals.
In a year which started off with Commissioner David Stern meddling with a potential three-team trade to the point where at least four franchises were detrimentally affected (LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics) I can absolutely see it ending with Czar Stern rigging the Western Conference Finals to ensure that the NBA Finals ratings are high with a potential Los Angeles - Chicago or Los Angeles - Miami series, rather than having to worry about filling FedEx Forum in Memphis.
The NBA, where shady Commissioners happens!
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Eastern Conference Preview
Eastern Conference:
Running on Empty
15. Cleveland: There is very little to like in Cleveland in terms of the Cavaliers' chances this season. While rookie Kyrie Irving is projected by many to be the next great point guard, the fact that he has few quality players surrounding him on the wings will likely spell doom for the Cavs. The best thing for Cleveland is to finish with a high lottery pick and add some more pieces to a developing core of Irving and Tristan Thompson. Outside of those two, only other intriguing young players on the Cavs' roster is Omri Casspi (unless of course you're high on Alonzo Gee and Manny Harris.) Expected Win Total: 18.
14. Detroit: Though I expect them to finish with a better record than the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Detroit Pistons are probably in a worse position than their Central Division cohorts, as the Pistons are - and will continue to be - beleaguered by questionable contracts. They currently have a glut of young small forwards with Austin Daye, Jonas Jerekbo, and Kyle Singler, and somehow Joe Dumars - in all his wisdom - thought it was a good idea to sign Tayshaun Prince to a contract extension paying the 31-year old Wildcat an average of $11 million over the next three seasons. Add to that the lack of a true point guard, and a surplus of combo guards in Ben Gordon, Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey, and the Pistons don't have much to point to in terms of a bright spot in their future. Perhaps the one thing Dumars has done right over the past few years was drafting Greg Monroe out of Georgetown. The former Hoya showed flashes of brilliance last season, and perhaps he and Brandon Knight can team-up to form a formidable pick-and-roll tandem. Nevertheless, with onerous contracts assigned to Prince, Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, it is hard to see how the Pistons will improve internally. Like in Cleveland, it will have to come through the draft. Expected Win Total: 20
13. Charlotte: The Bobcats might have the least talented lineup in the NBA, but they have shown over the past few years that they can play defense. As such, I expect them to edge out Cleveland and Detroit in the Eastern Conference basement. The thought of a Tyrus-Thomas-Boris Diaw-Bismack Biyombo front line ensures that the Bobcats will finish last in the NBA in scoring, as their stable of guards (D.J. Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette, and Kemba Walker) leaves a lot to be desired as well. Michael Jordan is probably the worst owner in the Association, but Paul Silas has proven at every stop along the way that he knows how to get the most out of his players. Expected Win Total: 21
Rebuilding Mode
12. Toronto: The Raptors have a new coach (Dwane Casey) but the same old problem, they don't have a go-to scorer, and their lineup is a hodge-podge of poorly-fitting pieces. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement provision, which allows for each team to waive a player, and not have it count against them for luxury tax purposes, or the salary cap, seems tailor-made for this team. They will be paying center Andrea Bargnani $9.25 million this season to shoot three pointers and avoid grabbing rebounds, $9.75 million for Jose Calderon to make us wish that NBA contracts were not guaranteed, $7.6 million to a washed-up Leandro Barbosa (who has not been the same since he left Phoenix, and the comfort of having skip passes thrown his way from Steve Nash) and over $4.5 million to Linas Kleiza, who is a nice little player, but not for that money. Hopefully Dwane Casey can get Ed Davis and Amir Johnson to buy in to his defensive philosophy, as those big man are capable of being defensive stoppers, given proper coaching. Expected Win Total: 23
11. Washington: I fully expect John Wall to make "the leap" this season, and in so doing, improve the play of those around him. He has two talented scorers at the shooting guard position with Nick Young and Jordan Crawford signed up for this season, and athletes who can run the floor and protect the paint in JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche. I also think Rashard Lewis will be able to give them a lot more than people are expecting at the small forward position, and whenever Jan Vesely comes over they will have a pretty strong core of young ballers. I struggled with the idea of having the Wizards sneak in to the playoffs this season, as they have the type of depth that teams need to successfully navigate through a shortened and compressed season. Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Booker, and Chris Singleton should be able to give them strong minutes off the bench up front, while Maurice Evans should provide them with veteran leadership and a strong locker room voice. Though they might not be there yet, with a Wall-Young/Crawford-Singleton-Vesely/Blatche-McGee seven-man rotation, they should be a playoff team beginning next season and for a number of years thereafter. Expected Win Total: 27
Potential Playoff Fodder
10. Milwaukee: Once again, let me say it, depth matters in a compressed season. The Milwaukee Bucks never really had a chance last season to put the personnel out on the court that they had hoped to play. Injuries to Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings destroyed any chance they had of competing for a place in the post season. However, they have a very deep front court (Bogut, Drew Gooden, Jon Brockman, Tobias Harris, Larry Sanders, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jon Leuer and Ersan Ilyasova) and some new pieces on the wings (Mike Dunleavy and Stephen Jackson) that can help them in myriad ways. They should be able to improve upon their horrid offensive showing last year with their recent additions, but I still don't think they have the pieces to move up in to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Expected Win Total: 28
9. New Jersey: Though the Nets have depth (Jordan Farmer and Ben Uzoh backing up Deron Williams and plenty of bigs to spell Brook Lopez, including the newly resigned Kris Kardashian Humphries) they lack talent beyond Deron Williams. For everything Brook Lopez contributes on the offensive end, he regressed last season and pulled down a paltry 6.5 rebounds/game. Reportedly, the Nets' staff will be tracking all of Lopez' potential rebound opportunities, perhaps in a move to light a fire under his ass, but unless he can start playing like a true big man, Deron Williams will be left to do most of the heavy lifting. I like the addition of Marshon Brooks to this team, but unless New Jersey can swing a trade for Dwight Howard, I don't think they have the chops to make it to the second season. Expected Win Total: 30
One-and-Out in the Playoffs
8. Atlanta: Introducing my pick to see the greatest drop-off in play from the 2010 season in the Eastern Conference. While the Hawks return their starting five, (though Jeff Teague is likely to replace Kirk Hinrich at point guard to begin the season) the loss of Jamal Crawford cannot be understood solely through the lens of Crawford's ability to put the ball in the hoop. Rather, Crawford was at times the only player who was able to initiate the offense and score easy points for the Hawks. Atlanta will be relying more on the likes of Marvin Williams this season, and added veterans Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmonovic and Jerry Stackhouse are unlikely to give them much in the way of replacement value for Crawford. It is also quite possible that the Hawks deal defensive stalwart Josh Smith during the season, as ownership has shown a reluctance to exceed the luxury tax. If Atlanta were to make such a move, they would surely slide out of the playoff picture and back in to the lottery, erasing years of progress. Expected Win Total: 32
7. Philadelphia: Doug Collins shocked a lot of people last year when he coached the 76ers back in to the playoffs. The Sixers return with their lineup virtually intact, and have the requisite depth to deal with multiple back-to-back games. Jrue Holiday showed that he is a stud in the making last year, and should be able to add to his repertoire by taking over more of the offensive reigns from Andre Iguodala. Nevertheless, Iguodala might be the most underrated wing defender in the NBA right now. So long as Evan Turner, Lou Williams and Thadeus Young can give them some scoring from the wings, the Sixers should be fine on that end of the court. Elton Brand had a great bounce back season in 2010-2011, and if he can stay healthy, he will be a tremendous asset for Philadelphia this season. Spencer Hawes is slated as their starting center to begin the season, but I wouldn't sleep on rookie Nikola Vucevic out of USC. So long as he can continue hitting long jump shots and spacing the floor like he did in college, he will allow Coach Collins to play him in a lineup of Holiday, Williams, Iguodala, and Brand that should be able to challenge teams inside and out. Expected Win Total: 34
6. Orlando: Predicting the likelihood of success for the Orlando Magic is very difficult without first knowing the answer to the following question: how much longer will Dwight be playing in the shadow of the Epcot Center? In short, the Orlando Magic go as Dwight goes, and lately Dwight has given every hint that he wants to go...elsewhere. Otis Smith doubled-down in the off season, resigning Jason Richardson to a 4-year extension (always a risky move for a 30-year old shooting guard with a spotty history of injuries) and sending out the very productive Brandon Bass, for the over-hyped, undersized, defenseless and limited child known as Glen Davis. The former LSU Tiger was able to succeed in Boston despite his skill set. Without a transcendent point guard (Jameer Nelson is a fine little guard, but far from the visionary that is Rajon Rondo) or multiple shooters to surround him, Davis is likely to be exposed for what he is. Additionally, Dwight has not much growth on the offensive end and the other Magic players are getting a bit long in the tooth to provide the scoring punch and defensive stops to make this team a contender. I fully expect for Dwight to be wearing a different jersey by the time next year, though it is not clear whether he will be traded in-season. Expected Win Total: 39
Getting Frisky
5. New York: The Amare-Carmelo duo will play another season together without an entire training camp under the belt, but this time, they have some protection up front with the addition of NBA Finals "defensive ace" Tyson Chandler. Though I think his signing has been over hyped, he will be able to help the Knicks start the fast break more often with his ability to stop players in the post and stymie penetrating guards. Nevertheless, Chandler's addition came at the expense of the Knicks' back court, as it required New York to waive guard Chauncey Billups. Though the Knicks have since added Baron Davis - who is likely to be out for the first six plus weeks of the season with a back injury - their back court consists of Mike Bibby, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert. Unless that foursome can provide Mike D'Antoni with quality minutes and the ability to light it up from outside, it won't matter how much Amare and 'Melo can dazzle on Broadway. Expected Win Total: 41
4. Indiana: Not only does this team have a terrific, young core of players who are likely to be around for years to come (Darren Collison, George Hill, Paul George, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, David West, and Roy Hibbert) but they have the depth to compete this season and perhaps win a playoff series. David West gives them a proven power forward at a great price (though questions remain about his surgically-repaired knee), someone who can play the pick-and-roll or step out and hit a 17-foot jump shot, and allows Tyler Hansbrough to be an effective seventh man off the bench. Darren Collison will be pushed by the addition of George Hill, but I believe Hill's addition will have the effect of making both players reach their full potential, and, given Hill's length and shooting ability, it is quite possible the two will spend time together in the back court. Roy Hibbert provides the Pacers with a stable and solid presence in the middle, and Danny Granger - when healthy - is one of the more dynamic players in the NBA. I like what Indiana has right now, and I think it is only going to get better. Expected Win Total: 44
3. Boston: I am not sure what to make of Boston, or what to expect from them this season. I love the Brandon Bass trade, but I think adding players like Keyon Dooling, Sasha Pavlovic and Chris Wilcox does little to help them now, or in the future. No team will be hit as hard by the compressed schedule as the Boston Celtics, whose "Big Three" are an average of 35 years old. Nevertheless, this team knows how to win, they know how to play strong defense, and above all else, they trust one another. Expected Win Total: 46
The Contenders
2. Chicago: I have been vacillating on who will actually finish the season with the best record in the East, and while I believe it will eventually be the Bulls, I can't help but remember how effectively Miami shut down the Chicago offense. The addition of Rip Hamilton at shooting guard is a huge coup for the Bulls, as he provides them with a number of skills they were sorely lacking last season: shooting, the ability to score without the ball in his hands at all times, playoff experience, and a veteran voice in the locker room. Expect the same suffocating defense that Tom Thibodeau employed last season - and in past years in Boston - to remain this year, and there is no reason to think that Derrick Rose is done growing as a player. In the end, I truly believe the Bulls will be playing the Heat for the right to go to the NBA Finals. Expected Win Total: 52
1. Miami: As much as I dislike the way the Miami "Big Three" came together, they showed that they meant business in their very first season together. Were it not for LeBron James' unprecedented fourth-quarter collapses in the Finals against Dallas, the Heat would be the defending champs. This year they return the same team that came within one game of winning a championship, and add grizzled-veteran (pun intended) Shane Battier to the mix. Though his play last season was not quite what we have come to expect from the former Duke-product, Battier might be the perfect fit for this team. It is quite likely that he will see extended minutes as a "stretch-four" employing his aggressive brand of defense on opposing power forwards, while drawing the opponent out of the paint and knocking down corner-three-pointers. It is also common knowledge now that LeBron James has added a post-game to his repertoire (it only took him 8 years, but better late than never) which ought to keep opposing teams guessing when Miami sets up their half-court offense. Say what you want about LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh, but they are certainly the most talented three-man combination in the league right now. Expected Win Total: 54
Running on Empty
15. Cleveland: There is very little to like in Cleveland in terms of the Cavaliers' chances this season. While rookie Kyrie Irving is projected by many to be the next great point guard, the fact that he has few quality players surrounding him on the wings will likely spell doom for the Cavs. The best thing for Cleveland is to finish with a high lottery pick and add some more pieces to a developing core of Irving and Tristan Thompson. Outside of those two, only other intriguing young players on the Cavs' roster is Omri Casspi (unless of course you're high on Alonzo Gee and Manny Harris.) Expected Win Total: 18.
14. Detroit: Though I expect them to finish with a better record than the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Detroit Pistons are probably in a worse position than their Central Division cohorts, as the Pistons are - and will continue to be - beleaguered by questionable contracts. They currently have a glut of young small forwards with Austin Daye, Jonas Jerekbo, and Kyle Singler, and somehow Joe Dumars - in all his wisdom - thought it was a good idea to sign Tayshaun Prince to a contract extension paying the 31-year old Wildcat an average of $11 million over the next three seasons. Add to that the lack of a true point guard, and a surplus of combo guards in Ben Gordon, Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey, and the Pistons don't have much to point to in terms of a bright spot in their future. Perhaps the one thing Dumars has done right over the past few years was drafting Greg Monroe out of Georgetown. The former Hoya showed flashes of brilliance last season, and perhaps he and Brandon Knight can team-up to form a formidable pick-and-roll tandem. Nevertheless, with onerous contracts assigned to Prince, Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, it is hard to see how the Pistons will improve internally. Like in Cleveland, it will have to come through the draft. Expected Win Total: 20
13. Charlotte: The Bobcats might have the least talented lineup in the NBA, but they have shown over the past few years that they can play defense. As such, I expect them to edge out Cleveland and Detroit in the Eastern Conference basement. The thought of a Tyrus-Thomas-Boris Diaw-Bismack Biyombo front line ensures that the Bobcats will finish last in the NBA in scoring, as their stable of guards (D.J. Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette, and Kemba Walker) leaves a lot to be desired as well. Michael Jordan is probably the worst owner in the Association, but Paul Silas has proven at every stop along the way that he knows how to get the most out of his players. Expected Win Total: 21
Rebuilding Mode
12. Toronto: The Raptors have a new coach (Dwane Casey) but the same old problem, they don't have a go-to scorer, and their lineup is a hodge-podge of poorly-fitting pieces. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement provision, which allows for each team to waive a player, and not have it count against them for luxury tax purposes, or the salary cap, seems tailor-made for this team. They will be paying center Andrea Bargnani $9.25 million this season to shoot three pointers and avoid grabbing rebounds, $9.75 million for Jose Calderon to make us wish that NBA contracts were not guaranteed, $7.6 million to a washed-up Leandro Barbosa (who has not been the same since he left Phoenix, and the comfort of having skip passes thrown his way from Steve Nash) and over $4.5 million to Linas Kleiza, who is a nice little player, but not for that money. Hopefully Dwane Casey can get Ed Davis and Amir Johnson to buy in to his defensive philosophy, as those big man are capable of being defensive stoppers, given proper coaching. Expected Win Total: 23
11. Washington: I fully expect John Wall to make "the leap" this season, and in so doing, improve the play of those around him. He has two talented scorers at the shooting guard position with Nick Young and Jordan Crawford signed up for this season, and athletes who can run the floor and protect the paint in JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche. I also think Rashard Lewis will be able to give them a lot more than people are expecting at the small forward position, and whenever Jan Vesely comes over they will have a pretty strong core of young ballers. I struggled with the idea of having the Wizards sneak in to the playoffs this season, as they have the type of depth that teams need to successfully navigate through a shortened and compressed season. Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Booker, and Chris Singleton should be able to give them strong minutes off the bench up front, while Maurice Evans should provide them with veteran leadership and a strong locker room voice. Though they might not be there yet, with a Wall-Young/Crawford-Singleton-Vesely/Blatche-McGee seven-man rotation, they should be a playoff team beginning next season and for a number of years thereafter. Expected Win Total: 27
Potential Playoff Fodder
10. Milwaukee: Once again, let me say it, depth matters in a compressed season. The Milwaukee Bucks never really had a chance last season to put the personnel out on the court that they had hoped to play. Injuries to Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings destroyed any chance they had of competing for a place in the post season. However, they have a very deep front court (Bogut, Drew Gooden, Jon Brockman, Tobias Harris, Larry Sanders, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jon Leuer and Ersan Ilyasova) and some new pieces on the wings (Mike Dunleavy and Stephen Jackson) that can help them in myriad ways. They should be able to improve upon their horrid offensive showing last year with their recent additions, but I still don't think they have the pieces to move up in to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Expected Win Total: 28
9. New Jersey: Though the Nets have depth (Jordan Farmer and Ben Uzoh backing up Deron Williams and plenty of bigs to spell Brook Lopez, including the newly resigned Kris Kardashian Humphries) they lack talent beyond Deron Williams. For everything Brook Lopez contributes on the offensive end, he regressed last season and pulled down a paltry 6.5 rebounds/game. Reportedly, the Nets' staff will be tracking all of Lopez' potential rebound opportunities, perhaps in a move to light a fire under his ass, but unless he can start playing like a true big man, Deron Williams will be left to do most of the heavy lifting. I like the addition of Marshon Brooks to this team, but unless New Jersey can swing a trade for Dwight Howard, I don't think they have the chops to make it to the second season. Expected Win Total: 30
One-and-Out in the Playoffs
8. Atlanta: Introducing my pick to see the greatest drop-off in play from the 2010 season in the Eastern Conference. While the Hawks return their starting five, (though Jeff Teague is likely to replace Kirk Hinrich at point guard to begin the season) the loss of Jamal Crawford cannot be understood solely through the lens of Crawford's ability to put the ball in the hoop. Rather, Crawford was at times the only player who was able to initiate the offense and score easy points for the Hawks. Atlanta will be relying more on the likes of Marvin Williams this season, and added veterans Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmonovic and Jerry Stackhouse are unlikely to give them much in the way of replacement value for Crawford. It is also quite possible that the Hawks deal defensive stalwart Josh Smith during the season, as ownership has shown a reluctance to exceed the luxury tax. If Atlanta were to make such a move, they would surely slide out of the playoff picture and back in to the lottery, erasing years of progress. Expected Win Total: 32
7. Philadelphia: Doug Collins shocked a lot of people last year when he coached the 76ers back in to the playoffs. The Sixers return with their lineup virtually intact, and have the requisite depth to deal with multiple back-to-back games. Jrue Holiday showed that he is a stud in the making last year, and should be able to add to his repertoire by taking over more of the offensive reigns from Andre Iguodala. Nevertheless, Iguodala might be the most underrated wing defender in the NBA right now. So long as Evan Turner, Lou Williams and Thadeus Young can give them some scoring from the wings, the Sixers should be fine on that end of the court. Elton Brand had a great bounce back season in 2010-2011, and if he can stay healthy, he will be a tremendous asset for Philadelphia this season. Spencer Hawes is slated as their starting center to begin the season, but I wouldn't sleep on rookie Nikola Vucevic out of USC. So long as he can continue hitting long jump shots and spacing the floor like he did in college, he will allow Coach Collins to play him in a lineup of Holiday, Williams, Iguodala, and Brand that should be able to challenge teams inside and out. Expected Win Total: 34
6. Orlando: Predicting the likelihood of success for the Orlando Magic is very difficult without first knowing the answer to the following question: how much longer will Dwight be playing in the shadow of the Epcot Center? In short, the Orlando Magic go as Dwight goes, and lately Dwight has given every hint that he wants to go...elsewhere. Otis Smith doubled-down in the off season, resigning Jason Richardson to a 4-year extension (always a risky move for a 30-year old shooting guard with a spotty history of injuries) and sending out the very productive Brandon Bass, for the over-hyped, undersized, defenseless and limited child known as Glen Davis. The former LSU Tiger was able to succeed in Boston despite his skill set. Without a transcendent point guard (Jameer Nelson is a fine little guard, but far from the visionary that is Rajon Rondo) or multiple shooters to surround him, Davis is likely to be exposed for what he is. Additionally, Dwight has not much growth on the offensive end and the other Magic players are getting a bit long in the tooth to provide the scoring punch and defensive stops to make this team a contender. I fully expect for Dwight to be wearing a different jersey by the time next year, though it is not clear whether he will be traded in-season. Expected Win Total: 39
Getting Frisky
5. New York: The Amare-Carmelo duo will play another season together without an entire training camp under the belt, but this time, they have some protection up front with the addition of NBA Finals "defensive ace" Tyson Chandler. Though I think his signing has been over hyped, he will be able to help the Knicks start the fast break more often with his ability to stop players in the post and stymie penetrating guards. Nevertheless, Chandler's addition came at the expense of the Knicks' back court, as it required New York to waive guard Chauncey Billups. Though the Knicks have since added Baron Davis - who is likely to be out for the first six plus weeks of the season with a back injury - their back court consists of Mike Bibby, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert. Unless that foursome can provide Mike D'Antoni with quality minutes and the ability to light it up from outside, it won't matter how much Amare and 'Melo can dazzle on Broadway. Expected Win Total: 41
4. Indiana: Not only does this team have a terrific, young core of players who are likely to be around for years to come (Darren Collison, George Hill, Paul George, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, David West, and Roy Hibbert) but they have the depth to compete this season and perhaps win a playoff series. David West gives them a proven power forward at a great price (though questions remain about his surgically-repaired knee), someone who can play the pick-and-roll or step out and hit a 17-foot jump shot, and allows Tyler Hansbrough to be an effective seventh man off the bench. Darren Collison will be pushed by the addition of George Hill, but I believe Hill's addition will have the effect of making both players reach their full potential, and, given Hill's length and shooting ability, it is quite possible the two will spend time together in the back court. Roy Hibbert provides the Pacers with a stable and solid presence in the middle, and Danny Granger - when healthy - is one of the more dynamic players in the NBA. I like what Indiana has right now, and I think it is only going to get better. Expected Win Total: 44
3. Boston: I am not sure what to make of Boston, or what to expect from them this season. I love the Brandon Bass trade, but I think adding players like Keyon Dooling, Sasha Pavlovic and Chris Wilcox does little to help them now, or in the future. No team will be hit as hard by the compressed schedule as the Boston Celtics, whose "Big Three" are an average of 35 years old. Nevertheless, this team knows how to win, they know how to play strong defense, and above all else, they trust one another. Expected Win Total: 46
The Contenders
2. Chicago: I have been vacillating on who will actually finish the season with the best record in the East, and while I believe it will eventually be the Bulls, I can't help but remember how effectively Miami shut down the Chicago offense. The addition of Rip Hamilton at shooting guard is a huge coup for the Bulls, as he provides them with a number of skills they were sorely lacking last season: shooting, the ability to score without the ball in his hands at all times, playoff experience, and a veteran voice in the locker room. Expect the same suffocating defense that Tom Thibodeau employed last season - and in past years in Boston - to remain this year, and there is no reason to think that Derrick Rose is done growing as a player. In the end, I truly believe the Bulls will be playing the Heat for the right to go to the NBA Finals. Expected Win Total: 52
1. Miami: As much as I dislike the way the Miami "Big Three" came together, they showed that they meant business in their very first season together. Were it not for LeBron James' unprecedented fourth-quarter collapses in the Finals against Dallas, the Heat would be the defending champs. This year they return the same team that came within one game of winning a championship, and add grizzled-veteran (pun intended) Shane Battier to the mix. Though his play last season was not quite what we have come to expect from the former Duke-product, Battier might be the perfect fit for this team. It is quite likely that he will see extended minutes as a "stretch-four" employing his aggressive brand of defense on opposing power forwards, while drawing the opponent out of the paint and knocking down corner-three-pointers. It is also common knowledge now that LeBron James has added a post-game to his repertoire (it only took him 8 years, but better late than never) which ought to keep opposing teams guessing when Miami sets up their half-court offense. Say what you want about LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh, but they are certainly the most talented three-man combination in the league right now. Expected Win Total: 54
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Final(s) Edition
Tuesday marks the beginning of the end for the 2010-2011 NBA Season. And, the team that made the most news to start off the season will be there to finish it. The much-maligned Miami Heat took a lot of, well, heat, for the manner in which they teamed up three All-Stars and celebrated on the streets of Miami before ever playing a single game together. Nevertheless, through all the ups and downs, the Miami troika will be playing longer than any team. Any team other than the Dallas Mavericks that is. With all the focus on the Miami Heat over the course of this past season, Dallas was essentially forgotten as a championship contender. The common thinking was that outside of Miami and the Lakers, the only other teams that could compete for the Larry O'Brien trophy were the Boston Celtics and the San Antonio Spurs. Not so.
Much like the Heat, the Mavericks faced a rather rocky regular season. They posted two double-digit winning streaks, and three losings streaks of three games or more. Their star, Dirk Nowitzki, was injured, and the team suffered mightily in his absence. The lost their starting small forward, Caron Butler, for the season on New Years Day (not exactly the best way to celebrate the New Year) and speedster Roddy Beaubois was lost for the playoffs months after that. Nevertheless, some savvy free agency moves - namely trading for Tyson Chandler and signing aging sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic - have kept the Mavericks moving forward. They beat the Trail Blazers when many - including this writer - predicted they would fail. They swept the defending champion Lakers in a fashion no one thought fathomable. And then, they outlasted, outsmarted, and outclassed the young Oklahoma City Thunder in a fantastic five-game series. Through it all, the Mavericks, like the Heat, have relied on staying within themselves, playing their game, and patience.
But, while both teams have been patient, the Mavericks do not have the luxury of being patient much longer. With the core of their team (Nowitzki, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Butler and Stojakovic) all entering the twilight of their respective careers, this series likely represents their last chance at winning that elusive ring.
On paper two things are clear, the Miami Heat have two of the three best players in the series (Wade and James) - and quite possibly the fourth best too (Bosh) - and the Mavericks have a much deeper bench than the Heat. Additionally, a few more things are apparent: the Heat will attempt to shred the Heat on the wings, and the Mavericks will rely heavily on their hot outside shooting to keep them rolling. What is less evident is which of the two versions of each team will show up.
The Heat, like the Mavericks, have been playing their best basketball since the playoffs began. Like the Mavericks, they have been able to withstand late rallies from formidable teams, and have been able to do what many of their doubters said they could not do all season: close games. Like Mavericks' star Dirk Nowitzki, Heat floor general LeBron James has a lot to prove on the game's greatest stage, as he too is searching for his first championship ring.
After all the story lines are exhausted, it really boils down to the players on the hardwood, and which team is able to impose their brand of basketball. If the playoffs are any indicator, the Heat will look to keep the score in the 80s with stifling defense, while the Mavericks will look to run and shoot, hoping to generate more than 100 points. While the Heat have major advantages in Wade and James, the Mavericks have Nowitzki - who is playing the best basketball of his career - and countless other players who outmatch their opponent. With that in mind, I will examine the individual match-ups and make my prediction.
Point Guard
While Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers have made it this far, able to quiet down lead guards Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose enough to advance, they will not be able to keep up with Jason Kidd's smarts, cunning, and ability to manage a game. While the old-Bear may have lost a step on both ends of the court, he is still incredibly effective at making timely plays, hitting three pointers, and setting up his teammates. His backup, JJ Barea, could also spell trouble for the Heat, as outside of their star wing players, they lack the speed to keep up with the little man from Puerto Rico.
Advantage: Mavericks
Shooting Guard
Dywane Wade is clearly a better player than both DeShawn Stevenson and Jason Terry and the advantage will go to the Heat. Nevertheless, Stevenson and Terry bring very specials skills to the table, and if Wade is not able to shut them down on the defensive end, the Heat will have a very short run in the finals. Terry is an expert marksman, and like Kidd, a timely shooter. Conversely, Stevenson is a lock-down defender with three-point range, and a swagger that can slow Wade down a step. The Heat have nothing off the bench behind Wade, so if he gets in to any kind of foul trouble, the Heat are toast.
Advantage: Heat
Small Forward
LeBron James is clearly the best basketball player in basketball right now. Every minute that Peja Stojakovic plays will be a moment for LeBron to attack and head straight for the basket. Nevertheless, Shawn Marion brings a multi-dimensional set of skills to the game that could trouble LeBron, who has heretofore played against strong wing defenders (Iguodala, Pierce and Deng) but has yet to face one as rangy and savvy as Marion. Mike Miller could provide a spark off the bench for the Heat - as he did in Game 4 of the Chicago series - but in reality, anything the Heat get from him is "found money."
Advantage: Heat
Power Forward
Chris Bosh has proven his detractors wrong this postseason with solid games against the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls. But nothing comes close to what Dirk Nowitzki has done in the second season. He is shooting over 92% from the free throw line, and over 50% from the field and the three-point line, pouring in 28 points per game and grabbing 7.5 boards. In short, he has been perfect. Though a match-up between All-Star power forwards, this one is not even close.
Advantage: Mavericks
Center
Joel Anthony has done a terrific job on the defensive end for the Heat, and has really helped them in their pick-and-roll defense. However, having any other one of their centers on the court - Ilgauskus, Dampier or Magliore - just kills them, on both ends. Conversely, the aforementioned Tyson Chandler is having a career year, is inspiring his teammates to play better, and is protecting the paint with such fervor that is seems certain that Mark Cuban will overpay him this season. Behind Chandler, the Mavericks have Brendan Haywood, who, though not a starting-caliber player, is a tenacious defender, and another big body that can protect the rim from the forays to the basket by Wade and James.
Advantage: Mavericks
Bench
I already touched on this, but just to reiterate, the Miami Heat second unit is comprised of: Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, James Jones, Udonis Haslem and Erick Dampier. The Mavericks trot out: JJ Barea, Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Corey Brewer and Brendan Haywood. I am going to stick with Dallas on this one.
Advantage: Mavericks
X-Factor
For the Mavericks, it's Shawn Marion. No one expects him to stop LeBron James, but if he can make it difficult for him to score and can provide some scoring of his own, he will have done his job admirably. For the Heat, it's Udonis Haslem. After a gutsy series against the Bulls, it remains to be seen what more he can do, and what he can provide, for the Miami Heat.
Advantage: Mavericks
Prediction
The pundits - and certainly those who get paid to do what I do for free - are picking the Heat. Miami's overwhelming advantage in terms of athleticism seems to be what most experts are keying in on. Nevertheless, I think this is Dallas' year. They already beat the defending champs in an embarrassing sweep, and I just sense that Dirk wants this more than anything else out there. As such, I am picking the Mavericks to win the NBA Finals.
Pick: Mavericks in 6
Much like the Heat, the Mavericks faced a rather rocky regular season. They posted two double-digit winning streaks, and three losings streaks of three games or more. Their star, Dirk Nowitzki, was injured, and the team suffered mightily in his absence. The lost their starting small forward, Caron Butler, for the season on New Years Day (not exactly the best way to celebrate the New Year) and speedster Roddy Beaubois was lost for the playoffs months after that. Nevertheless, some savvy free agency moves - namely trading for Tyson Chandler and signing aging sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic - have kept the Mavericks moving forward. They beat the Trail Blazers when many - including this writer - predicted they would fail. They swept the defending champion Lakers in a fashion no one thought fathomable. And then, they outlasted, outsmarted, and outclassed the young Oklahoma City Thunder in a fantastic five-game series. Through it all, the Mavericks, like the Heat, have relied on staying within themselves, playing their game, and patience.
But, while both teams have been patient, the Mavericks do not have the luxury of being patient much longer. With the core of their team (Nowitzki, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Butler and Stojakovic) all entering the twilight of their respective careers, this series likely represents their last chance at winning that elusive ring.
On paper two things are clear, the Miami Heat have two of the three best players in the series (Wade and James) - and quite possibly the fourth best too (Bosh) - and the Mavericks have a much deeper bench than the Heat. Additionally, a few more things are apparent: the Heat will attempt to shred the Heat on the wings, and the Mavericks will rely heavily on their hot outside shooting to keep them rolling. What is less evident is which of the two versions of each team will show up.
The Heat, like the Mavericks, have been playing their best basketball since the playoffs began. Like the Mavericks, they have been able to withstand late rallies from formidable teams, and have been able to do what many of their doubters said they could not do all season: close games. Like Mavericks' star Dirk Nowitzki, Heat floor general LeBron James has a lot to prove on the game's greatest stage, as he too is searching for his first championship ring.
After all the story lines are exhausted, it really boils down to the players on the hardwood, and which team is able to impose their brand of basketball. If the playoffs are any indicator, the Heat will look to keep the score in the 80s with stifling defense, while the Mavericks will look to run and shoot, hoping to generate more than 100 points. While the Heat have major advantages in Wade and James, the Mavericks have Nowitzki - who is playing the best basketball of his career - and countless other players who outmatch their opponent. With that in mind, I will examine the individual match-ups and make my prediction.
Point Guard
While Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers have made it this far, able to quiet down lead guards Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose enough to advance, they will not be able to keep up with Jason Kidd's smarts, cunning, and ability to manage a game. While the old-Bear may have lost a step on both ends of the court, he is still incredibly effective at making timely plays, hitting three pointers, and setting up his teammates. His backup, JJ Barea, could also spell trouble for the Heat, as outside of their star wing players, they lack the speed to keep up with the little man from Puerto Rico.
Advantage: Mavericks
Shooting Guard
Dywane Wade is clearly a better player than both DeShawn Stevenson and Jason Terry and the advantage will go to the Heat. Nevertheless, Stevenson and Terry bring very specials skills to the table, and if Wade is not able to shut them down on the defensive end, the Heat will have a very short run in the finals. Terry is an expert marksman, and like Kidd, a timely shooter. Conversely, Stevenson is a lock-down defender with three-point range, and a swagger that can slow Wade down a step. The Heat have nothing off the bench behind Wade, so if he gets in to any kind of foul trouble, the Heat are toast.
Advantage: Heat
Small Forward
LeBron James is clearly the best basketball player in basketball right now. Every minute that Peja Stojakovic plays will be a moment for LeBron to attack and head straight for the basket. Nevertheless, Shawn Marion brings a multi-dimensional set of skills to the game that could trouble LeBron, who has heretofore played against strong wing defenders (Iguodala, Pierce and Deng) but has yet to face one as rangy and savvy as Marion. Mike Miller could provide a spark off the bench for the Heat - as he did in Game 4 of the Chicago series - but in reality, anything the Heat get from him is "found money."
Advantage: Heat
Power Forward
Chris Bosh has proven his detractors wrong this postseason with solid games against the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls. But nothing comes close to what Dirk Nowitzki has done in the second season. He is shooting over 92% from the free throw line, and over 50% from the field and the three-point line, pouring in 28 points per game and grabbing 7.5 boards. In short, he has been perfect. Though a match-up between All-Star power forwards, this one is not even close.
Advantage: Mavericks
Center
Joel Anthony has done a terrific job on the defensive end for the Heat, and has really helped them in their pick-and-roll defense. However, having any other one of their centers on the court - Ilgauskus, Dampier or Magliore - just kills them, on both ends. Conversely, the aforementioned Tyson Chandler is having a career year, is inspiring his teammates to play better, and is protecting the paint with such fervor that is seems certain that Mark Cuban will overpay him this season. Behind Chandler, the Mavericks have Brendan Haywood, who, though not a starting-caliber player, is a tenacious defender, and another big body that can protect the rim from the forays to the basket by Wade and James.
Advantage: Mavericks
Bench
I already touched on this, but just to reiterate, the Miami Heat second unit is comprised of: Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, James Jones, Udonis Haslem and Erick Dampier. The Mavericks trot out: JJ Barea, Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Corey Brewer and Brendan Haywood. I am going to stick with Dallas on this one.
Advantage: Mavericks
X-Factor
For the Mavericks, it's Shawn Marion. No one expects him to stop LeBron James, but if he can make it difficult for him to score and can provide some scoring of his own, he will have done his job admirably. For the Heat, it's Udonis Haslem. After a gutsy series against the Bulls, it remains to be seen what more he can do, and what he can provide, for the Miami Heat.
Advantage: Mavericks
Prediction
The pundits - and certainly those who get paid to do what I do for free - are picking the Heat. Miami's overwhelming advantage in terms of athleticism seems to be what most experts are keying in on. Nevertheless, I think this is Dallas' year. They already beat the defending champs in an embarrassing sweep, and I just sense that Dirk wants this more than anything else out there. As such, I am picking the Mavericks to win the NBA Finals.
Pick: Mavericks in 6
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
What Can Brown Do For You?
Today's news that the Los Angeles Lakers hired former Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown to succeed Phil Jackson came as a surprise to some. But for those of us that follow the game and understand the needs of the various teams in the Association, the Lakers could not have found a more appropriate replacement for the Zen Master. While Phil Jackson is undoubtedly the greatest coach in professional basketball - if not professional sports - he was understandably tired of coaching, and given the Lakers' collapse down the stretch in the playoffs, he was being tuned out by his players. As such, the hope seems to be that Mike Brown can infuse the veteran Lakers with new energy.
It is no secret that what Mike Brown does well is defense. Over five seasons in Cleveland, Brown won 272 games and lost 138, and much of this was due to the fact that the Cavaliers were consistently in the top-7 in defensive efficiency. He helped develop LeBron James from a rather poor defender in to one of the premier wing stoppers in the NBA. Additionally, he made lemonade out of lemons. Aside from James, one can argue that Brown's second best player over the five years in Cleveland was Mo Williams or Anderson Varejao.
With that in mind, it is certainly going to be interesting to see how he fares at the helm of a Lakers roster that boasts four bona fide studs (Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Bynum) who can either create their own offense or finish strong inside. I expect to see him maximize their defensive abilities - particularly pushing Gasol to "get at it" on that end - and help them shore up the weaknesses that were exposed against the New Orleans Hornets and even more so against the Dallas Mavericks. Specifically, look for Brown to change up the defensive schemes that Jackson had put in place. Under Jackson the Lakers were fantastic at defending the 3-point line - at least in the regular season - and terrible at defending against long two-pointers and the pick-and-roll.
The big knock on Brown has always been that he does not seem to have much of a knack for coaching on the offensive end. Nevertheless, his teams in Cleveland the past few years were actually marginally more efficient on the offensive end than those teams in Los Angeles (never mind the fact that he did not end the season sporting gaudy jewelery as the Lakers did.) Still, offense is something that a strong assistant can bring to the table. Defense is a state of mind, and the backbone behind a team remodel. We saw that in 2008 when Kevin Garnett teamed up with the Celtics and bought in to the Tom Thibodeau defensive scheme, and this year we have seen it both in Chicago under now head coach Thibodeau and in Miami under Erik Spoelstra.
At the end of the day, the Lakers got the best coach out there. There were some unproven coaches (Brian Shaw and Chuck Person to name a few) who might have made sense from a continuity perspective. And then there were some veteran managers (Larry Brown and Rick Adelman) who likely would have been more about signing a big name rather than signing the right name. The Lakers landed a young coach (Brown is 41) and a proven coach (he was the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year and led the Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals). But most importantly, the Lakers snared a coach who is successful enough to not be overwhelmed by the man he is replacing, and humble enough to understand his place in it all.
It is no secret that what Mike Brown does well is defense. Over five seasons in Cleveland, Brown won 272 games and lost 138, and much of this was due to the fact that the Cavaliers were consistently in the top-7 in defensive efficiency. He helped develop LeBron James from a rather poor defender in to one of the premier wing stoppers in the NBA. Additionally, he made lemonade out of lemons. Aside from James, one can argue that Brown's second best player over the five years in Cleveland was Mo Williams or Anderson Varejao.
With that in mind, it is certainly going to be interesting to see how he fares at the helm of a Lakers roster that boasts four bona fide studs (Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Bynum) who can either create their own offense or finish strong inside. I expect to see him maximize their defensive abilities - particularly pushing Gasol to "get at it" on that end - and help them shore up the weaknesses that were exposed against the New Orleans Hornets and even more so against the Dallas Mavericks. Specifically, look for Brown to change up the defensive schemes that Jackson had put in place. Under Jackson the Lakers were fantastic at defending the 3-point line - at least in the regular season - and terrible at defending against long two-pointers and the pick-and-roll.
The big knock on Brown has always been that he does not seem to have much of a knack for coaching on the offensive end. Nevertheless, his teams in Cleveland the past few years were actually marginally more efficient on the offensive end than those teams in Los Angeles (never mind the fact that he did not end the season sporting gaudy jewelery as the Lakers did.) Still, offense is something that a strong assistant can bring to the table. Defense is a state of mind, and the backbone behind a team remodel. We saw that in 2008 when Kevin Garnett teamed up with the Celtics and bought in to the Tom Thibodeau defensive scheme, and this year we have seen it both in Chicago under now head coach Thibodeau and in Miami under Erik Spoelstra.
At the end of the day, the Lakers got the best coach out there. There were some unproven coaches (Brian Shaw and Chuck Person to name a few) who might have made sense from a continuity perspective. And then there were some veteran managers (Larry Brown and Rick Adelman) who likely would have been more about signing a big name rather than signing the right name. The Lakers landed a young coach (Brown is 41) and a proven coach (he was the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year and led the Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals). But most importantly, the Lakers snared a coach who is successful enough to not be overwhelmed by the man he is replacing, and humble enough to understand his place in it all.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Playoffs???
It has been a while since I posted anything, and I completely dropped the ball on my initial playoff predictions. Thankfully, every team I thought would advance did, with the exception of the Orlando Magic, who really pissed the bed against the Atlanta Hawks (and yes, I did think the Memphis Grizzlies would upset the San Antonio Spurs!) With that said, I am only making my picks for the Conference Semifinals, as it would be foolhardy to pick the ensuing rounds, particularly given some of the upsets that have occurred to this point.
Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Bulls in 5
Had Kirk Hinrich been ready to go for this series, I truly believe the Hawks could have pushed the Bulls to six or seven games. Without him, the Hawks simply do not have the defensive personnel to contain Derrick Rose, and that is the key to this series. The Hawks big men (Josh Smith, Al Horford, and their pu-pu platter of centers) should be able to get theirs against the Bulls (particularly if they go at Boozer, who has looked very soft of late) but the Hawks will likely shoot their way out of many games, just as they shot their way in to many games in the previous round. I expect the Bulls to win a few of these games in dramatic fashion, and the others will likely be blowouts.
Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics
Pick: Celtics in 7
I am bucking what has become the common line of thinking recently in picking the Boston Celtics. Sure, they have looked pretty pedestrian since trading Kendrick Perkins. Yes, the big-three are all beginning to show their age. And yes, Rondo is a liability on offense in the half court. Having said that, their is something about the Boston defense that really messes with the Miami players. Wade shot under 30% against the Celtics this season, LeBron's isolation-offense plays right in to the hands of the Celtics' strong-side defensive schemes, and Bosh should be neutralized by KG's aggressive - and often times offensive - brand of defense and heckling. In the end, Rondo is the key to this series. If he is able to get the Celtics running, and make their offense move more in the open court than in the half court, the Celtics should be able to win this series. Additionally, if he can put some of those gaudy stat-lines we had grown accustomed to from him, he should be able to do just enough to get Boston back to the Conference Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Thunder in 7
First and foremost, I think we can all agree that the Memphis Grizzlies are far and away the "crunkest" team to ever make it this far in the NBA Playoffs. They play with a swagger and a chip on their shoulder unseen in the NBA for a long time. Their defensive intensity (they led the league in steals per game this season) allows them to foil some of the best offensive schemes, and their strength inside - anchored by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol - is unparalleled outside of Los Angeles. The Grizz should have the ability to put lock down defenders on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant with Tony Allen and Shane Battier respectively drawing the assignments. Nevertheless, unless one of the teams is incredibly cohesive - a la the Boston Celtics - it is always safe to take the team with the best player to win the series. Kevin Durant is the best player in this series and he should be able to get his and the other Thunder players should be able to do enough to get them one step closer to a possible rematch of last year's first round series with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers v. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Lakers in 6
I am always weary of the Lakers falling asleep and taking their foot off the gas, but I just don't see the Mavericks being able to beat LA four times. The point guard match-up is not that much of an advantage for the Mavericks, as Jason Kidd as regressed enough that the Lakers can match up with Derek Fisher. Kobe is likely going to obliterate whomever defends him (DeShawn Stevenson, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, whomever). Ron Artest should be able to pester Marion and at times Nowitzki enough that his minutes are worthwhile, and the Lakers will likely own the paint with their twin towers. A lot will come down to who plays better off the bench, Lamar Odom, or Jason Terry. Terry is a gamer, and has always hit timely shots for the Mavericks, but Odom is the more versatile player, and the better defender and rebounder, and at this stage in the season, championships are won with defense and rebounding. I think the Lakers will be thrown off at times by the Mavericks' use of the zone, but they should prevail after a hiccup or two and be able to return to the Conference Finals for the fourth consecutive season.
Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Bulls in 5
Had Kirk Hinrich been ready to go for this series, I truly believe the Hawks could have pushed the Bulls to six or seven games. Without him, the Hawks simply do not have the defensive personnel to contain Derrick Rose, and that is the key to this series. The Hawks big men (Josh Smith, Al Horford, and their pu-pu platter of centers) should be able to get theirs against the Bulls (particularly if they go at Boozer, who has looked very soft of late) but the Hawks will likely shoot their way out of many games, just as they shot their way in to many games in the previous round. I expect the Bulls to win a few of these games in dramatic fashion, and the others will likely be blowouts.
Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics
Pick: Celtics in 7
I am bucking what has become the common line of thinking recently in picking the Boston Celtics. Sure, they have looked pretty pedestrian since trading Kendrick Perkins. Yes, the big-three are all beginning to show their age. And yes, Rondo is a liability on offense in the half court. Having said that, their is something about the Boston defense that really messes with the Miami players. Wade shot under 30% against the Celtics this season, LeBron's isolation-offense plays right in to the hands of the Celtics' strong-side defensive schemes, and Bosh should be neutralized by KG's aggressive - and often times offensive - brand of defense and heckling. In the end, Rondo is the key to this series. If he is able to get the Celtics running, and make their offense move more in the open court than in the half court, the Celtics should be able to win this series. Additionally, if he can put some of those gaudy stat-lines we had grown accustomed to from him, he should be able to do just enough to get Boston back to the Conference Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Thunder in 7
First and foremost, I think we can all agree that the Memphis Grizzlies are far and away the "crunkest" team to ever make it this far in the NBA Playoffs. They play with a swagger and a chip on their shoulder unseen in the NBA for a long time. Their defensive intensity (they led the league in steals per game this season) allows them to foil some of the best offensive schemes, and their strength inside - anchored by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol - is unparalleled outside of Los Angeles. The Grizz should have the ability to put lock down defenders on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant with Tony Allen and Shane Battier respectively drawing the assignments. Nevertheless, unless one of the teams is incredibly cohesive - a la the Boston Celtics - it is always safe to take the team with the best player to win the series. Kevin Durant is the best player in this series and he should be able to get his and the other Thunder players should be able to do enough to get them one step closer to a possible rematch of last year's first round series with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers v. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Lakers in 6
I am always weary of the Lakers falling asleep and taking their foot off the gas, but I just don't see the Mavericks being able to beat LA four times. The point guard match-up is not that much of an advantage for the Mavericks, as Jason Kidd as regressed enough that the Lakers can match up with Derek Fisher. Kobe is likely going to obliterate whomever defends him (DeShawn Stevenson, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, whomever). Ron Artest should be able to pester Marion and at times Nowitzki enough that his minutes are worthwhile, and the Lakers will likely own the paint with their twin towers. A lot will come down to who plays better off the bench, Lamar Odom, or Jason Terry. Terry is a gamer, and has always hit timely shots for the Mavericks, but Odom is the more versatile player, and the better defender and rebounder, and at this stage in the season, championships are won with defense and rebounding. I think the Lakers will be thrown off at times by the Mavericks' use of the zone, but they should prevail after a hiccup or two and be able to return to the Conference Finals for the fourth consecutive season.
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Regular Season Awards
With roughly ten games to go in the 2010-2011 NBA Season, it is about time to start handing out some awards. So, without further adieu, I present to you my picks for MVP, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year, and my First, Second and Third Team All-NBA as Well as First Team All-Defense...
MVP
Derrick Rose. There is certainly a case to be made for LeBron James (arguably the best player in the NBA right now) and Dwight Howard (without whom the Orlando Magic would be a lottery-bound franchise), but my vote goes to Rose. Aside from posting some gaudy stats (24.8 ppg., 7.8 apg., 4.2 rpg.) he has also guided his team to the best record in the top-heavy Eastern Conference and helped the Bulls weather the storm through long-term injury issues to their big man duo of Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Without Rose, the Bulls would be a 38-win team. With him, they are tops in the Eastern Conference, poised to make a deep run in the playoffs, and well positioned for the next decade.
Coach of the Year
Doug Collins. Right now Tom Thibodeau is the trendy pick. After all, his Chicago Bulls currently sport the second best record in the NBA. Additionally, the Bulls have shown a commitment to defense last seen by the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics championship team. However, Collins gets the nod from me. After a brutal start to the season, Collins made the necessary adjustments to set the 76ers up for success, this season and in the future. He has gotten the most out of limited role players like Jodie Meeks, has made a star out of second-year guard Jrue Holiday, and has revitalized the woebegone careers of both Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. His club is probably the most dangerous lower-seeded playoff team this year, and I believe they have the potential to be a 50-win franchise next season.
Sixth Man of the Year
Lamar Odom. I really see this as a two man race between Jason Terry and Lamar Odom. Many detractors will argue that Odom is not really the sixth man for the Los Angeles Lakers because he has started so many games for them this season. True. But, much like Terry, he also finishes them. Los Angeles is at their best when they start Bynum and bring Odom off the bench. Additionally, Odom has improved nearly every facet of his game this season, combining his brilliant passing skills with a now-deadly jump shot. His defense is top notch, he brings a swagger the Lakers' desperately need, and he has been one of the linchpins of the NBA's hottest team right now.
Most Improved Player
LaMarcus Aldridge. Kudos to Kevin Love for breaking Moses Malone's record double-double streak, but this award belongs to Aldridge. Asked to play out of position all season, Aldridge has become one of the league's best centers. Yes, you read that right, Aldridge is now a center. He combines terrific post moves with a killer jump shot, and has carried the Blazers on his back ever since injuries ravaged their season earlier this year.
Defensive Player of the Year
Dwight Howard. Aside from his blocks and rebounds, Dwight Howard changes so many shots that much of what he does on the defensive end of the court cannot be quantified. What I find most impressive about Howard's defensive impact is that he brings it every night. The guy might not be an offensive prodigy (yet) but he always brings the intensity on defense.
First Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Derrick Rose
Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant
Small Forward: LeBron James
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki
Center: Dwight Howard
Second Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Chris Paul
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade
Small Forward: Kevin Durant
Power Forward: Amare Stoudemire
Center: Pau Gasol
Third Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward:Paul Pierce
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: LaMarcus Aldridge
First Team All-Defense
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward: Tony Allen
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: Dwight Howard
MVP
Derrick Rose. There is certainly a case to be made for LeBron James (arguably the best player in the NBA right now) and Dwight Howard (without whom the Orlando Magic would be a lottery-bound franchise), but my vote goes to Rose. Aside from posting some gaudy stats (24.8 ppg., 7.8 apg., 4.2 rpg.) he has also guided his team to the best record in the top-heavy Eastern Conference and helped the Bulls weather the storm through long-term injury issues to their big man duo of Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Without Rose, the Bulls would be a 38-win team. With him, they are tops in the Eastern Conference, poised to make a deep run in the playoffs, and well positioned for the next decade.
Coach of the Year
Doug Collins. Right now Tom Thibodeau is the trendy pick. After all, his Chicago Bulls currently sport the second best record in the NBA. Additionally, the Bulls have shown a commitment to defense last seen by the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics championship team. However, Collins gets the nod from me. After a brutal start to the season, Collins made the necessary adjustments to set the 76ers up for success, this season and in the future. He has gotten the most out of limited role players like Jodie Meeks, has made a star out of second-year guard Jrue Holiday, and has revitalized the woebegone careers of both Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. His club is probably the most dangerous lower-seeded playoff team this year, and I believe they have the potential to be a 50-win franchise next season.
Sixth Man of the Year
Lamar Odom. I really see this as a two man race between Jason Terry and Lamar Odom. Many detractors will argue that Odom is not really the sixth man for the Los Angeles Lakers because he has started so many games for them this season. True. But, much like Terry, he also finishes them. Los Angeles is at their best when they start Bynum and bring Odom off the bench. Additionally, Odom has improved nearly every facet of his game this season, combining his brilliant passing skills with a now-deadly jump shot. His defense is top notch, he brings a swagger the Lakers' desperately need, and he has been one of the linchpins of the NBA's hottest team right now.
Most Improved Player
LaMarcus Aldridge. Kudos to Kevin Love for breaking Moses Malone's record double-double streak, but this award belongs to Aldridge. Asked to play out of position all season, Aldridge has become one of the league's best centers. Yes, you read that right, Aldridge is now a center. He combines terrific post moves with a killer jump shot, and has carried the Blazers on his back ever since injuries ravaged their season earlier this year.
Defensive Player of the Year
Dwight Howard. Aside from his blocks and rebounds, Dwight Howard changes so many shots that much of what he does on the defensive end of the court cannot be quantified. What I find most impressive about Howard's defensive impact is that he brings it every night. The guy might not be an offensive prodigy (yet) but he always brings the intensity on defense.
First Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Derrick Rose
Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant
Small Forward: LeBron James
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki
Center: Dwight Howard
Second Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Chris Paul
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade
Small Forward: Kevin Durant
Power Forward: Amare Stoudemire
Center: Pau Gasol
Third Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward:Paul Pierce
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: LaMarcus Aldridge
First Team All-Defense
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward: Tony Allen
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: Dwight Howard
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