New Years Resolution: Don't Close the Book So Quickly

My close friends back home know this all too well, but more often than not when discussing the NBA and players who are either developing or not developing, I am far too quick to share my opinion, make a snap judgment, and write someone - or some team - off. We call this "closing the book." I have "closed the book" on many players, only to be proven woefully wrong, and later begrudgingly reopen that book. If a team is leading big at the end of the first quarter, you will often hear me say "This game is over," despite the fact that there are 36 minutes left in the contest, and few games are decided in the first 12 minutes. In short, I overreact to small sample sizes.

But, I am not alone in this. In fact, the mainstream media has made a living off of this very practice for the past ten years, to the point where the news is spoon-fed to us in 10-second sound bites. But alas, I digress. Nevertheless, those who have been watching Sportscenter over the past few weeks, reading about basketball on ESPN.com or any other major sports site, or even casually following the NBA, have likely encountered the following conversation among sportswriters:

Sportswriter 1: So, how about the Lakers slump, they sure look awful, don't they?
Sportswriter 2: Sure do. I think we are seeing the end of a dynasty.
Sportswriter 1: Well, they have lost four out of their last eight games, and they just don't have the spirit of an NBA Champion.
Sportswriter 2: That's right, and with teams like the San Antonio Spurs, nearly half a dozen games ahead of them in the Western Conference Standings, they look like they're in trouble this postseason.

Some of what these fictitious sportswriters just said is true. The Lakers have looked pretty mediocre of late. They have played an uninspiring brand of basketball, and they have been embarrassed - on their home court no less - by inferior teams who were merely hungrier for the W. But, while they have lost four out of their last eight games, they have also won nine out of their last 13. And that's not that bad.

In short, because of our expectations of what the Los Angeles Lakers were supposed to be like heading in to this season, we view their play-to-date as a let down. But, that does not require us to go that extra step and opine about how they are unlikely to advance far in the playoffs or contend for another Championship in June. But, this is nothing new. Just prior to the playoffs last season, every sportswriter, talking head, blogger, and friend of mine completely wrote off the Boston Celtics. After all, following a torrid start to the season, they were a .500 team over the last 50 games, and a few weeks before the second season they looked very average.

How did those Celtics do again? Oh, that's right, they came within two minutes of securing another championship, eventually losing in an epic seventh game to the Los Angeles Lakers.

So, while the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks have been winning consecutive games by the dozen, pasting their opponents, and racking up the W's, the Lakers have been playing down to their opponents, and are the only "top-tier" team without an impressive win streak.

What I am trying to say is this, in the world we live in today, where a 24-hour news cycle dominates our lives and tells us everything we need to know - and more information we could do without - we tend to look at issues solely in the "now," rather than analyzing those very issues in the grand scheme of things. Sure, the Lakers may look like an average team now, in January. But, what matters in sports is that you save your best for the playoffs, when it is "win and go home" time. After all, who knows what injuries, off-court incidents, or other issues might affect the top teams between now and April, when the NBA begins their annual four-month long playoff competition.

(NB: I say that as though I have a problem with watching basketball, when in fact the only problem I have is watching too much basketball. Case in point, the other night I watched the entire game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies. I am pretty sure NO ONE has ever watched an entire sporting event between teams based out of Oklahoma City and Memphis.)

Everybody closes the book too early, everybody judges another by a small sample of their work, and everyone writes off good teams, and talented players. And changing that way of thinking is one of my resolutions this year.

With that in mind, I would like to make a public ("public" in the sense of the four people that actually read my blog) apology to Michael Beasley. The uber-talented forward from the Minnesota Timbererwolves seemed like a lost soul not that long ago with the Miami Heat. As early as the summer before his rookie season, when he got in to a bit of off-court trouble (along with Mario Chalmers) at a preseason function, I declared him a bust. Boy, was I wrong.

Beasley is currently averaging 22 points and 6 rebounds per game, and is shooting a stifling 44% from 3-point range. He has teamed up with Kevin Love to form one of the most dynamic frontcourts in the entire Association, and he has found redemption in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. More importantly, he has proven all of his critics wrong, myself included.

I sincerely hope I am able to follow through on my resolution to not "close the book" early on others, to judge less, and to let things play out a bit more.  Here's to hoping others do the same.