Saturday, December 18, 2010

Blockbuster Season: Orlando Clears House

The Orlando Magic, losers of five of their last six games, decided to pull the trigger today on a trade they have been discussing for months, and, in so doing, provide NBA fans with the first "Blockbuster" trade of the year. In a one-for-one swap, the Magic sent combo-forward Rashard Lewis to the Washington Wizards for former All-Star - and current poster boy for the NRA - Gilbert Arenas. Orlando general manager Otis Smith, formerly a front office fixture for the Golden State Warriors is close with Arenas from his days in Oakland, and still speaks to Gilbert nearly three times a week. Since September, rumors had been swirling that the Magic would look to make a move for Arenas, a player who had more than worn out his welcome in the Nation's capital.

But, it wasn't until recently that Lewis began to show up on the Wizards' radar.

The commonly held belief was that the Wizards would look to move Arenas for Vince Carter and his cap-friendly contract (Carter essentially has an expiring deal, in that only $4 million of his $18 million salary in 2010/2011 is guaranteed.) But, over the past two weeks, with Lewis mired in his own slump, the Magic gravitated towards moving Rashard in lieu of V.C.

In acquiring Lewis, the Wizards fill a big hole in their lineup. While John Wall is a bona fide superstar, he really doesn't have anyone to kick the ball out to on the perimeter, which allows opposing defenses to collapse as he beats the initial defender off the dribble. Kirk Hinrich has never been a proficient outside shooter, and Nick Young - while currently on a nice streak of his own - is up and down from beyond the three-point line. However, Lewis is a career 39% three-point shooter, and with a career average of 16.5 points per game, he provides a potent scoring option for the Wizards on the wing. This addition should also help the development of the Wizards young frontcourt of Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, who will undoubtedly have more room to operate in the painted area.

While most pundits out there seem to think the Wizards got the better player, I would disagree. In addition to being out of Washington, a city where Gil was no longer welcome, Arenas appears to finally be healthy, and I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibility that he could return to something close to the form he was in from 2004 to 2007, perhaps averaging close to 20 points per game. While he will no longer be the number one option on this Orlando team (that honor belongs to Dwight Howard) he will be able to burn opposing defenses for doubling down on D12. Additionally, Arenas is a career 36% three-point shooter (pretty much compensating for the loss of Lewis) and an aggressive defender in the passing lanes (when he wants to play both sides of the ball.)

In short, I feel that this deal really helped both sides accomplish their goals. The Wizards moved past the "Gilbert Arenas Era," and settled the logjam in their backcourt, and the Magic dealt Rashard Lewis, who seemed to be in a funk since late last season, and was no longer a productive member of the Magic' outside-in offensive scheme.

The bigger story however, was the deal made minutes before, wherein the Magic sent Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, their 2011 first-round pick, and $3 million in cash to the Phoenix Suns for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark. From my perspective, this seems like a smart move for the Magic. They upgrade the shooting guard position by dealing VC for J-Rich, and, in so doing, improve their long-range shooting (Richardson is shooting 42% on the season, compared to Carter who is shooting 34% from "down town.") Given the Magic' offensive scheme, this seems like a stellar acquisition.

Furthermore, while I like Marcin Gortat for the Phoenix Suns, I did not like him for the Orlando Magic. He will undoubtedly get a chance to prove he is a starting center in the NBA when he takes the court for the Suns, and will definitely improve their rebounding on both ends of the court. He will also provide Phoenix with a formidable last line of defense (something that has been lacking in Phoenix since before Mike D'Antoni was around.) However, with Dwight Howard playing heavy minutes in Orlando, Gortat was pretty much an afterthought, and overpaid (earning over $6 million dollars per year to play 14 minutes per game.) Having him in Phoenix makes sense, having him in Orlando did not.

The Magic also reacquire their old employee Hedo Turkoglu, who has looked out of sorts ever since the 2009 NBA Finals when he was still a member of the Orlando Magic. While Turkoglu will never be a number one option, his ability to create, and initiate, offense will pay immense dividends for the Magic once more. Furthermore, when given the opportunity, he is a tremendous player in the clutch, and will provide the Magic with a legitimate crunch time player (something Vince Carter was never able to do during his time in Orlando.)

As a result of these moves, the Magic have assembled a team that ought to be better in the closing minutes of games, when dumping the ball in to Dwight is no longer an option due to his poor free throw shooting. While small, a lineup of Jameer Nelson, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Howard is still a strong lineup, and one capable of scoring from every position. Furthermore, while that lineup is a bit thin, having a tremendous rebounder and shot-blocker like Howard as the anchor of the defense, will more than compensate for the lack of bulk at the other positions. Finally, should the Magic choose to bring one of their newly-acquired players off the bench, and start Brandon Bass at power forward, they will still have a potent nine-man rotation with Quentin Richardson, Ryan Anderson and J.J. Reddick joining the previously mentioned players.

The problem is this, the Magic just replaced 60% of their starting lineup, and it will take a while to integrate these new pieces in to their system. While Turkoglu ought to blend in quite quickly, it will take longer for Gil and J-Rich to become part of a cohesive unit. Nevertheless, Arenas and Richardson are former teammates of one another from their time with the Golden State Warriors, and there is likely some chemistry between the two given the two years they spent as teammates in the Bay Area.

In terms of talent upgrades, the Magic are the big winners today.

In terms of sticking to a plan and moving forward as a franchise, the Wizards come out on top.

And, in terms of cutting salary, and acquiring the right pieces to fit in to place, the Suns are the victors this weekend.

Like any real blockbuster, this trade might be more about the initial fireworks than the substance of the deal, but I still believe it will benefit each and every team involved.

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