Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Injured Big Men: Don't Sell Too Soon on a Reclamation Project

Much has been made this season of the fact that Greg Oden suffered another setback in his road to recovery.  The Portland big man is now going to miss another entire season, and, despite having been in the league for four years, he has only played a total of 82 games.  In other words, he has missed three seasons worth of games in his first four years.  People are calling him a bust.  Some are lamenting the fact that Portland once again whiffed on a top draft choice, bringing back memories of the 1984 NBA Draft, when these same Trail Blazers chose Sam Bowie over one Michael Jeffrey Jordan.  We all know how that unfolded, so there is really no need to kick Portland fans while they are down.

However, what is often forgotten about Bowie, and many other big men who do not turn out just as we had all expected, is that he went on to have a very productive career for a number of NBA franchises.  By all objective standards, Bowie had a very productive first season in Portland, playing in 76 out of 82 games, he posted averages of 10.0ppg, 8.6rpg, 2.8apg, a whopping 2.7 blocks per game, and shot over 54% from the field and 71% from the line.  Not bad production out of a starting center, right? Then he got hurt.  Again!  Now, bear in mind, Sam Bowie was not the healthiest college kid to ever join the Association.  Just as Greg Oden had health issues during his one year at Ohio State (a broken wrist, and the observation that one of his legs was longer than the other), Bowie had his share of
injury concerns.  But, Bowie was able to bounce back, albeit four years later.

During the 1989-1990 season, Bowie, now the starting center for the New Jersey Nets, posted more than 14 points, and 10 rebounds per game.  While he was no longer controlling the paint on the offensive end (his field goal percentage hovered just above 41%) he was able to register nearly 2 blocks per game, suggesting that he was still a defensive presence for his team.  He would go on to have another three productive seasons for the Nets, before heading West, and joining the Lakers for his last two years.  Even then, Bowie was productive while he was on the floor.

Bowie never lived up to the billing.  He was no Kareem, he was no Wilt, and he was no Bill Russell.  Hell, he wasn't even the best center chosen in the '84 draft (a little guy named Hakeem Olajuwon holds that title).  But, he was, in all regards, a productive center while he was on the court.

The problem is, we all expected Bowie to be more than he turned out to be.  And, we held it against him.  And now, we are doing the same thing to Greg Oden.  In fact, Oden is not alone.  Andrew Bynum, the oft-injured, and soon-to-return, center for the Los Angeles Lakers, has taken a lot of heat over the past three seasons, as he has continued to struggle with injuries that have limited his ability to be effective on the court.  The problem is, most of us don't understand that when you are over seven feet tall, and you injure yourself, it takes a great deal longer to rehab from that injury, if rehabilitation is even an option.

Bill Walton, perhaps the greatest "could-have-been" NBA talent, a National Champion at UCLA, an MVP of the NBA, and a two-time NBA Champion, played over 50 games per season only three times in his first nine seasons in the NBA.  He was betrayed by his feet, plain and simple.  But Walton's early career struggles were overshadowed by the fact that he was able to rebound (literally and figuratively.)  During the 1985-1986 season, Walton came back to the game.  This time in a new role, as a sixth man.  He no longer had the ability to do the things he once did on the court, but the talent was still there.  And that talent - namely his rebounding and utterly unselfish style - helped propel the Boston Celtics to the NBA Finals, and another storied championship.  A year later, Walton was done.

The NBA is littered with such stories of big men who were much hyped coming in to the league, only to crash and burn ... and later rise like the Phoenix from the ashes.  Marcus Camby, one of the better college players over the last 20 years, struggled mightily his first four seasons in the league.  A trade to the New York Knicks, and later the Denver Nuggets, rejuvenated his career, and he went on to establish himself as one of the premier rebounders and shot-blockers in the NBA.  Over the past ten seasons, Camby has averaged better than 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game.  Not too shabby.  Longtime Cavalier, and now Miami Heat, Zydrunas Ilgauskus suffered the same fate.  After an injury-free rookie campaign during the 1997-1998 season his career derailed for the better part of three seasons.  But much like Walton, Bowie, and Camby, he came back.  Since 2002, Ilgauskus has played in 73 or more games per season all but twice (and during those two seasons, he played in 65 and 64 games.)  Big Z also became a proficient spot up shooter - deadly from the free throw line-extended - and still held his own on defense, patrolling the paint.

Once left for dead, and thought to be washed up, players like Walton, Ilgauskus, Bowie and Camby, all had a renaissance later in their careers.  What does this tell us about players like Oden and Bynum you ask? Well, nothing really.  All of these players are unique in some way.  Nonetheless, aside from their large frames, these men all possessed an inner resilience to bounce back from injury, no matter how long it took them.  Despite not necessarily panning out for the franchises they were drafted by, these men all went on to have productive careers, and were able to make their teams better (NB: Bill Walton did lead the Portland Trail Blazers to an NBA Championship in 1977, averaging 18.6 points, 14.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 3.2 blocks per game and earning Finals MVP honors.) 

The question remains: are we giving up too early on Oden and Bynum? I think so.  For the longest time, I was willing to just close the book on a player if he didn't pan out immediately.  I will admit, I thought Michael Beasley was going to be dead or in jail by this point in his career.  Thankfully I was wrong.  I still believe these two big men hold value for many franchises.  However, we are also too often blinded by the dollar signs, and the reality that these players make a lot of money for relatively little result on the hardwood.  But again, that's not their fault (after all, would you turn down an eight-figure deal if offered to you?)

Big men do not control NBA games the way they used to.  Speedy guards and star players on the wing are much more effective at controlling the tenor of a game on a nightly basis.  However, big man still hold value to their teams for the things they do, namely rebounding, shot blocking, and racking up fouls on the opposing team.  While Greg Oden and Andrew Bynum may fall short of the lofty expectations we assigned to them, they may yet make fools of us all and go on to lead very productive careers.  I sure hope they do just that. 

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