(Not Really) Rolling the Dice for 'Melo?

The 3-way trade executed by the New Jersey Nets, Houston Rockets, and Los Angeles Lakers today marks the first trade of the year that has the potential to cause a lasting effect on the league (sorry, but the trade sending Peja Stojakovic to Toronto did little to cause ripples throughout the league.)  The broader ramifications of this trade have been discussed ad nauseam over the past 24 hours by the talking heads of the sports world, with everyone speculating that the trade - which sends two first round picks to the New Jersey Nets - is a mere precursor to the Nets pulling off a larger deal to pry Carmelo Anthony away from the Denver Nuggets.

For such a trade between the Nuggets and Nets to have any chance of being executed, the Nets would need some commitment by Anthony that he would resign with the franchise during the 2011 offseason.  And yet, all we have heard over the past few weeks is that Melo would only sign with the Knicks this coming summer.  Well then, what gives?

In my opinion, trading for Melo is a low-risk move for the Nets.  Let's say that the Nuggets are willing to accept a package of Troy Murphy (expiring contract worth $12 million) and rookie Derrick Favors, along with two first round picks (let's say, their pick in 2011, and the Warriors lottery-protected 2011 first round pick).  The Nuggets would be letting go of a young big man with "upside," and an aging big man who has been in the Coach Avery Johnson's doghouse all season.  They would also lose two rather valuable picks, but then again, this years draft does not look all the hot.  Additionally, with Carmelo Anthony, Brook Lopez, and Devin Harris as their core, the Nets could ostensibly rise from the doldrums of the Atlantic Division, make the playoffs, and end up giving up a pick that is not even in the lottery (note: if the Warriors end up in the lottery, which is about as likely as the earth orbiting the sun, the pick would be pushed to 2012, and on to 2013 until it either was a non-lottery pick, or merely a 2014 second round pick.)

So, all this clamoring about the Nets selling the franchise to rent Anthony for half a season is a bunch of nonsense.  I would even argue that such a deal would be a bigger coup than the deal the Lakers pulled off in 2008, when they acquired Pau Gasol (after all, the Grizzlies did get Pau's younger brother Marc, and two first round picks).  However, the question remains, could the Nets convince Anthony to resign in New Jersey this coming summer?

As I recall, it was a mere 5 months ago when people were talking about how players like LeBron, Stoudemire and Bosh were considering signing with New Jersey, because of their new owner, their proven head coach, their stud big man (Lopez) and the cachet of playing for a team partly owned by hip hop mogul Jay-Z that will be moving to Brooklyn in a few seasons.  And last I checked, Brooklyn is considered to be a much more "hip" place these days than Manhattan, so I ask again, what gives?

Why not try to make that trade, and if Melo wants to jump ship in the offseason, so be it.  The Nets will still have the Lakers 2011 first round pick and two first round picks in 2012 (their own, and the Rockets'.)

On another note, I think the other two teams involved in this trade, the Rockets and the Lakers, made out quite nicely.

The Rockets added a wing player with terrific athleticism in Terrence Williams.  While he is not much of a shooter, he does have a knack for getting to the basket and involving his teammates in the offense, something that can not be said for the other Rockets wing players.  In fact, Williams would fit quite nicely as a ballhandling small forward with players like Kevin Martin and Courtney Lee flanking him on the wings (particularly since the Rockets lack a true "playmaker" with Aaron Brooks still out with an injury.) 

At first glance this trade does not make much sense for the Lakers (after all, why would you trade an expiring contract worth over $5 million for a player like Joe Smith, when you could possibly get more from a team desperate to shed payroll moving forward?) But, this trade was not just about Smith (who will fit quite nicely as a backup big man) despite his high basketball IQ and his ability to space the floor with a potent jump shot. No, this trade was about the two second round draft picks that the Lakers were able to acquire in the deal.  In 2011, the Lakers will once again be without a first round draft pick, but they will have three second round draft picks (their own, the Bulls pick, and the Warriors pick.) Given the state of the Golden State Warriors franchise, it is not too crazy to think that their second round pick will be merely a few spots below the Lakers original first round pick.  Add to that the fact that the Lakers save over $8 million in this deal, (when you factor in the luxury tax ramifications) and are not bound to sign any of their second round picks - therefore avoiding any type of salary hold for the 2011/2012 season - and I would argue that everyone came out of this deal doing just fine.

The big question remains, will Carmelo Anthony be traded, and which team will end up acquiring him.  As of now, nobody knows.  A lot of players have been rumored to be on the move - Andre Iguodala, O.J. Mayo, even Chris Paul to name a few - but with it being trade season in the NBA, the question remains, who is next?