We are roughly half way through the NBA regular season, and the first 41 games of the season has allowed us to separate the wheat from the chaff. With that in mind, I have decided to offer up my first edition of the NBA Power Rankings, beginning with the worst teams, and finishing with those teams that have looked the best thus far. Given that Bill Simmons is my favorite basketball writer, I thought I might offer up an homage in the divisions I assign these various teams to. So, without further adieu, I present to you, the rankings...
The P.J. Carlesimo Divsion
These teams are all either falling apart, or have already exploded monumentally.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers: Everyone expected the Cavaliers to be hurting after LeBron "took his talents to South Beach," but I cannot imagine anyone thought they would be this horrid. Losers of 14 straight, and 23 out of their last 24, the Cavaliers post a -11.3 scoring margin, nearly five points worse than the next-to-last team. They have little talent on their team, no young prizes to develop, and they are saddled by long-term contracts that will haunt them for the next two to three seasons. At least Cleveland has this going for them: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmLA5TqbIY
29. Sacramento Kings: I liked Tyreke Evans a lot more as a rookie than I do now, though I understand that he has been playing at about 75% for the past month. DeMarcus Cousins is starting to come on strong, and, if he can keep his attitude in check (this has been a knock on him since he was in high school) he should develop in to a pretty strong low-post player. Having said that, the Kings are a team in flux, both as a franchise - with rumors swirling that they might leave Sacramento - and a team - they have yet to develop any identity. I imagine they will be an active team around the February trade deadline, as they have a number of expiring contracts (Dalembert and Landry) and interesting pieces (Casspi) that other teams might be interested in.
28. Washington Wizards: John Wall hit the proverbial rookie wall a few weeks ago after coming back from a prolonged injury. Now that Blake Griffin is tearing the league apart, the best thing Wall can do is focus on becoming a true triple-threat and not worry about the rookie of the year race. Like the Kings, the Wizards are a team in flux, but unlike the Kings, the Wizards have a coach (Flip Saunders) who has shown himself to be capable of developing young talent, and building a winner.
27. Toronto Raptors: Another team that has experienced the burn of a an all-star leaving town and getting nothing in the way of compensation, the Raptors - unlike the Cavaliers - are at least showing some pride; even if they are ceding nearly 105 points per game. Thankfully, the Raptors, like the rest of the teams in this division, get very little play on television, which is a godsend for NBA fans everywhere.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves: Like most serious NBA fans, I am amazed at Kevin Love's ability to continually pull down double-digit boards and make rebounding cool. What few people realize though is that Love is averaging over 21 points per game, shooting 47% from the field, 87% from the line, and 44% from 3-Point range. Love's 15.6 rebounds per game is the highest per game average since Dennis Rodman in the late 1990s with the Chicago Bulls. The Timberwolves are incredibly lucky to have a player of his caliber on their roster. Unfortunately, that is where the T-Wolves luck begins and ends.
25. Detroit Pistons: Perhaps the most "blah" team in the Association, the Pistons have few wins to show for a roster that runs them around $66 million this season. Their only young talent is rookie Greg Monroe, and he is only getting around 22 minutes of burn every night. Thankfully, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva are under contract for another three years and $60 million. Joe Dumars, where Amazing Happens!!!
The Mo Cheeks Division
These squads are neither in rebuilding mode, nor good enough to make waves in the post-season. They are stuck in that all-too-common position that Mo Cheeks' teams continually found themselves; the middle.
24. New Jersey Nets: The only interesting thing about the New Jersey Nets this season has been the constant drama centering on whether or not they will pull the trigger and trade for Carmelo Anthony. As of now, the deal is off (according to their owner) and the team seems set on building on what they have. While rookie Derrick Favors appears to be a diamond in the rough, third year center Brook Lopez has taken a big step back from his breakout second season. The Nets spent a decent amount of money in the off-season on middling talent like Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar and Johan Petro. Avery Johnson is a good coach, but he appears to have rubbed some more of his players the wrong way (see: Murphy, Troy) and I wonder whether this team will ever get going again.
23. Golden State Warriors: Many of my friends in the Bay Area insist that the Warriors are a year away from being a playoff team. I have been hearing that for years, and for years the Warriors have been letting their fans down. Steph Curry, David Lee and Monta Ellis are a nice core to build around, but without bona fide defenders surrounding them, they will be destined to finish towards the bottom of the league in every defensive category.
22. Phoenix Suns: I feel bad for Steve Nash. The scrappy Canadian is a sure fire first-ballot hall of famer, and he is wasting his final years on a Suns team that is going nowhere. I blame Robert Sarver for all of this. Due to his penny-pinching ways, the Suns have missed out on so many talented players that it is just not fair to Phoenix fans to list them here. I hope, for Nash' sake, that he is traded to a contender (Atlanta makes sense: Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford for Nash and a portion of the trade exception created from the Amare Stoudemire departure works under the salary cap) and does not have to play out the end of his career on a team that does not allow him to showcase his amazing "court vision" to its fullest.
21. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin. He is the best rookie in years, and is the perfect cornerstone around which a team can build. Eric Gordon has shown himself to be a great two-guard (if a bit undersized), DeAndre Jordan was a draft day steal, Baron Davis has shown signs of life, and they have valuable trade chips in Chris Kaman and rookie Al-Farouq Aminu. Somehow, someway, Donald Sterling will find a way to screw this up. It's sad.
20. Philadelphia 76ers: I will never forgive Doug Collins for dyeing his hair blond during the 2007 NBA Playoffs when he was announcing games for TNT. That being said, he has done a great job thus far this season in helping to instill a winning attitude in the 76ers franchise. While he team may have whiffed on rookie Evan Turner, they have a stud in second-year guard Jrue Holiday, and they can certainly fetch something of value- even if it is just salary cap relief - in a trade for Andre Iguodala. Given the way they ended the season last year, and the malaise the franchise has been mired in for the past four to five seasons, things are looking up for Philly, even if they are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs.
19. Milwaukee Bucks: This team has been dealing with injuries for what seems like 18 months, but without Brandon Jennings in the lineup Milwaukee has really taken a dip. Unless they can muster up a decent winning streak during the second half of the season, nobody will be "fearing the deer" come April. On second thought, what am I saying? The Bucks are a half game out of the playoffs in the East, and something tells me that either the Bobcats or the Pacers are going to blow it big over the next few months. Put it down now, the Bucks will make the postseason.
The Paul Silas Division:
Teams on the bubble of making the playoffs, they have zero chance of advancing, and it is unclear where these franchises are heading.
18. Charlotte Bobcats: Larry Brown once again left a team at their lowest moment, and no one should be surprised by his recent comments suggesting he is interested in coaching again. Paul Silas has done an admirable job helping to turn the team around for the time being, but this franchise is really going nowhere. They lost Raymond Felton to New York this past summer in free agency, and now that D.J. Augustin has been given the reigns Charlotte's offense has staggered even more. They have no front court, their best players are either unhappy (Stephen Jackson) or constantly injured (Gerald Wallace) and their front office - led by His Airness - is a complete mess. While they might sneak in to the playoffs, given the decrepit teams at the bottom of the East standings, the franchise has little going for it moving forward.
17. Indiana Pacers: For the first six weeks of the season, the Indiana Pacers looked they had finally figured things out. Roy Hibbert was a beast inside, Darren Collison was playing like a top-flight point guard, and the Pacers were winning against good teams. Since then, Hibbert and Collison have hit a wall, Danny Granger has been the most disappointing "franchise player," they have not found a way to solve the power forward position (Tyler Hansborough and Josh McRoberts is not a good start), and Jim O'Brien seems to have lost control of the team. What the Pacers do have going for them is a ton of cap space moving forward. They have nearly $34 million in expiring contracts and could dangle Danny Granger to a team looking to upgrade on the wing. One deal that makes sense for both teams would be for the Pacers to trade Granger and a 2011 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green, Morris Peterson's expiring deal, and a 2011 1st round pick. The Pacers would reunite the 2007 Georgetown front court, would save more money for the next few years, and would finally solve their power forward problem. Of course, that trade - which would also allow the Thunder to land a premier outside shooter and wing defender - makes too much sense to actually come to fruition.
16. Denver Nuggets: Rather than trade Carmelo Anthony, why not follow the path the Lakers took in 2007 when Kobe Bryant made a similar demand. A package of Kenyon Martin ($16.5 million expiring contract), Aaron Afflalo (an incredibly efficient defender who can play lock down defense on the wing) and Anthony Carter, along with a draft pick, could land them David West, Willie Green and Trevor Ariza. Even if Carmelo were to walk in the summer, the Nuggets could rebuild with Nene and West up front, Ty Lawson, Ariza, Billups and whatever they can get in a package for Melo (who will likely have to opt for a sign-and-trade after all). Supposing they eventually make a deal with the Knicks after the season ends, they could add players like Landry Fields, Wilson Chandler, and a 1st rounder to the aforementioned core. Or, they could trade Carmelo for 50 cents on the dollar and doom themselves to mediocrity for years to come.
15. Portland Trail Blazers: I live about two hours north of the City of Roses, and I am absolutely scared to death of going there for one reason: I am pretty sure my body would break down the moment I stepped out of the car. We all know what happened to Greg Oden, but now Brandon Roy is out - and quite possibly for a very long time given his health concerns - and their other centers (Camby and Pryzbilla) are also battling lingering injuries. Much like Houston, this team still finds a way to win, but all that winning won't help them come April, when they will need to beat a team like the Spurs or the Lakers to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
14. New Orleans Hornets: Did you know that this team is currently tied for third in the Western Conference? Neither did I until I checked the standings earlier today. The only stories we here coming out of NOLA center on Chris Paul's eventual departure, and the possible relocation of the team. However, Monty Williams has done a hell of a job getting the most out of his roster, and Chris Paul has had another great season. The question remains, is this team good enough to win a playoff series? Right now I would take the Spurs, Lakers, Thunder, Mavericks and Jazz over the Hornets, and New Orleans is not good enough to land a top-2 spot and host the Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Grizzlies or Rockets. Furthermore, all the speculation as to what is going to happen with the franchise does not bode well for their future. My guess: they eventually bite the bullet and trade Chris Paul for a package of draft picks and cap space and move to a city like Kansas City or San Jose.
The Mike Fratello Division:
Teams likely to advance to the playoffs, but unlikely to advance in the second season.
13. Memphis Grizzlies: The O.J. Mayo - Tony Allen story, wherein the two reportedly got in to an altercation on the team plane over a gambling debt, brought back ominous memories of the Washington Wizards last year. Thankfully, the Grizzlies on the court are a lot better than they are off the court. Zach Randolph is once again proving his doubters wrong, averaging a double-double, Mike Conley has finally proven himself capable of being a starting point guard in the NBA, and Rudy Gay has justified the bloated contract that Memphis gave him in the off season. Add to that a quality starting center in Marc Gasol, and a bevvy of 2-guards who can bring different things to the table in Xavier Henry and the aforementioned Allen and O.J. Mayo has become somewhat expendable, particularly when you consider that the Griz will have to resign Mayo, Gasol, and Randolph this coming summer. If they can move Mayo - say to Chicago for Taj Gibson and Charlotte's 2011 first round pick - the Griz could move forward with a quality core of 7 players, and develop their projects (remember that guy named Hasheem Thabeet?) As it stands right now, the Griz are three games out of the Western Conference Playoffs and playing the best basketball they have played in years. If the Nuggets and/or Trail Blazers stumble, their loss could be Memphis' gain.
12. Houston Rockets: You have to feel for the Rockets. They have invested so much of their identity in Yao Ming, and the poor guy just cannot stay healthy. Nonetheless, they have an exciting group of players who can light it up, and they continue to remain competitive despite lacking anyone who can protect the basket. They also have $38 million in expiring contracts, and some interesting trade chips in low-salary guys like Aaron Brooks, Chase Buddinger, and Courtney Lee. Should they decide to make a push for Carmelo Anthony, or any player for that matter, they will be able to offer up a package of expiring deals, draft picks, and assets, that no other team could match. While they might not make the playoffs, the Rockets are well managed - Darrel Morey has done a fantastic job! - and primed for success in coming years.
11. New York Knicks: I love the energy that Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton have brought Madison Square Garden, but I do not think adding Carmelo Anthony to that mix is going to help this team win basketball games. Rather than gutting their roster for another defenseless scorer who cannot help them in the areas they need the most assistance - defense, rebounding and protecting the basket - they should trade Eddy Curry's massive expiring deal for a true center who can protect the rim, and a back up point guard. This team is good, and will provide fans with an exciting first round playoff series, but let's not pretend that they can go any further than that right now. Until they fill out the roster a bit more, they will be little more than first round fodder capable of scoring a lot of points.
10. Atlanta Hawks: I struggled with where to rank the Atlanta Hawks because on one hand they are a good team capable of beating anyone on any night, with a core of players that are capable and reliable. On the other hand, they have nights where they lose by 40 points, and I cannot help but think they drastically overpaid for Joe Johnson's services. However, in the now, the Hawks are capable of nabbing a top-4 seed in the East (though I firmly believe they will slide to the 5 spot and lose to the Bulls in the first round) and continuing to be a tough match-up on a nightly basis.
9. Utah Jazz: They lack a post defender and outside shooting, yet they are still within one-and-a-half games of third place in the Western Conference. Their recent struggles on the road (they are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and have a scoring margin of only 1.2 points) however suggest that this team is not as good as their start to the season might suggest, and despite all his talents, Deron Williams might have to deal with a first round exit once again.
The Jerry Sloan Division:
On the cusp, but still missing a piece.
8. Oklahoma City Thunder: The aforementioned trade idea - with Indiana for Danny Granger - would make a lot of sense for this team, but let's talk about reality rather than fantasy. While the Thunder have one of the best 1-2 punches in the NBA in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, they get little contribution on the offensive end from few others with the exception of Jeff Green. They play everyone tight, but continually have problems with the cream of the crop in their conference. They are 1-5 against the Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks thus far this season, and the fact of the matter is they are going to have to beat at least two of those teams to advance to the NBA Finals. While I cannot see that happening this season (barring a mid season trade landing them a stud) they are primed to rule the West for years to come.
7. Dallas Mavericks: Up until three weeks ago, I thought this team was the biggest threat to dethrone the Lakers in the West. With injuries to Caron Butler (out until at least the playoffs) and Dirk Nowitzki (they were terrible without him, and have looked so-so with him back) this team has really taken a step back, despite valuable contributions from Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry. If they can swing something at the deadline to land them another perimeter player (Stephen Jackson anyone?) they can get back in to the mix of winning the Western Conference, but until then, they will still be a distant third (even if they did beat the Lakers this past week.)
6. Chicago Bulls:If I were the Heat, Celtics or Magic, I would be scared to death of the Bulls right now. Despite injuries to Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, this team has managed to remain within three-and-a-half games of the Celtics because of the superhuman play of Derrick Rose. The likely leader in the MVP race, has added a three point shot to his already deadly offensive arsenal, and he showed leadership qualities on the floor that have made him the best point guard in the game right now. I think they will give the Celtics a true battle in the second round (probably a 7-game series) before bowing out gracefully and reloading next season with a healthier team.
5. Miami Heat: The (New) Big Three, when healthy, are capable of beating anyone. However, as we have seen over the past two weeks, health will be a real issue for this team moving forward, because outside of James, Wade and Bosh, this team has little else. While a healthy Mike Miller (and perhaps Udonis Haslem?) will help them come playoff time, I am not sure they will have the tools necessary to hang with Boston and Orlando in May.
The Final Four:
The four teams that are best built for success in the post season.
4. Orlando Magic: I mentioned in a previous post how I liked the deals they made. J-Rich and Turkoglu have brought a lot of talent and energy to the Magic, and even if Arenas isn't lighting it up for Orlando, his arrival has opened up playing time for Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass (due to the departure of Rashard Lewis) who have played fantastic basketball over the past three weeks. I think the Magic are capable of making it to the NBA Finals once again, and this team is starting to recognize that they need to win now because Dwight Howard will be a free agent in the summer of 2012, when they could quite possibly lose the face of their franchise.
3. Los Angeles Lakers: Despite all the stories about how the Lakers are not living up to expectations, they are only five-and-a-half games behind the Spurs, and have the third best record in the NBA. Kobe Bryant is playing fewer minutes per game than he has since his second season in the league. Having Bynum back makes a huge difference, as it allows them to bring Lamar Odom off the bench, and gives them real depth up front. When Matt Barnes returns from injury, they will be whole again, and they might even get something out of Theo Ratliff and Joe Smith come playoff time. For every naysayer out there, I don't think it is that outlandish to think that the Lakers can win playoff games on the road. And, if the playoffs were to start today, they would need to do just that, finding a way to win in San Antonio and Boston.
2. San Antonio Spurs: Why do I have the best team in the league at number two? Because of all the top contenders for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, the Spurs are the only one to avoid an injury to one of their best players. The Heat have played without James, Bosh and Wade. The Lakers have played without Bynum, and with a hobbled Gasol. The Celtics have won without KG, Rondo, Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal. But the Spurs, they have not had to deal with any maladies. And, let's not forget, these guys are getting long in the tooth. So, while I do not wish injury upon anyone, I would not be surprised if they lost a few games down the stretch due to injury. Having said that, they look awesome, and, if the playoffs were played today, I would pick them to win it all.
1. Boston Celtics: They are a year older, and even hungrier. What scares me most about the Celtics is that they have done all this without their starting center, as Kendrick Perkins has yet to return from the injury he suffered in last year's NBA Finals. They win because of their defense, but with Rajon Rondo quarterbacking the offense, Boston is great on both ends. They are good at everything they do, and I am absolutely terrified of them right now. However, like I said before, what matters is where you are in April and May, not January. So, for the Celtics to win another title, they will need to be healthy, specifically, they will need Kevin Garnett to be playing at 100%, as he anchors their defense, and helps to further spread their offense with his killer 17-foot jumpshot.
As it stands right now, I like Celtics to win it all.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Friday, January 7, 2011
New Years Resolution: Don't Close the Book So Quickly
My close friends back home know this all too well, but more often than not when discussing the NBA and players who are either developing or not developing, I am far too quick to share my opinion, make a snap judgment, and write someone - or some team - off. We call this "closing the book." I have "closed the book" on many players, only to be proven woefully wrong, and later begrudgingly reopen that book. If a team is leading big at the end of the first quarter, you will often hear me say "This game is over," despite the fact that there are 36 minutes left in the contest, and few games are decided in the first 12 minutes. In short, I overreact to small sample sizes.
But, I am not alone in this. In fact, the mainstream media has made a living off of this very practice for the past ten years, to the point where the news is spoon-fed to us in 10-second sound bites. But alas, I digress. Nevertheless, those who have been watching Sportscenter over the past few weeks, reading about basketball on ESPN.com or any other major sports site, or even casually following the NBA, have likely encountered the following conversation among sportswriters:
Sportswriter 1: So, how about the Lakers slump, they sure look awful, don't they?
Sportswriter 2: Sure do. I think we are seeing the end of a dynasty.
Sportswriter 1: Well, they have lost four out of their last eight games, and they just don't have the spirit of an NBA Champion.
Sportswriter 2: That's right, and with teams like the San Antonio Spurs, nearly half a dozen games ahead of them in the Western Conference Standings, they look like they're in trouble this postseason.
Some of what these fictitious sportswriters just said is true. The Lakers have looked pretty mediocre of late. They have played an uninspiring brand of basketball, and they have been embarrassed - on their home court no less - by inferior teams who were merely hungrier for the W. But, while they have lost four out of their last eight games, they have also won nine out of their last 13. And that's not that bad.
In short, because of our expectations of what the Los Angeles Lakers were supposed to be like heading in to this season, we view their play-to-date as a let down. But, that does not require us to go that extra step and opine about how they are unlikely to advance far in the playoffs or contend for another Championship in June. But, this is nothing new. Just prior to the playoffs last season, every sportswriter, talking head, blogger, and friend of mine completely wrote off the Boston Celtics. After all, following a torrid start to the season, they were a .500 team over the last 50 games, and a few weeks before the second season they looked very average.
How did those Celtics do again? Oh, that's right, they came within two minutes of securing another championship, eventually losing in an epic seventh game to the Los Angeles Lakers.
So, while the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks have been winning consecutive games by the dozen, pasting their opponents, and racking up the W's, the Lakers have been playing down to their opponents, and are the only "top-tier" team without an impressive win streak.
What I am trying to say is this, in the world we live in today, where a 24-hour news cycle dominates our lives and tells us everything we need to know - and more information we could do without - we tend to look at issues solely in the "now," rather than analyzing those very issues in the grand scheme of things. Sure, the Lakers may look like an average team now, in January. But, what matters in sports is that you save your best for the playoffs, when it is "win and go home" time. After all, who knows what injuries, off-court incidents, or other issues might affect the top teams between now and April, when the NBA begins their annual four-month long playoff competition.
(NB: I say that as though I have a problem with watching basketball, when in fact the only problem I have is watching too much basketball. Case in point, the other night I watched the entire game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies. I am pretty sure NO ONE has ever watched an entire sporting event between teams based out of Oklahoma City and Memphis.)
Everybody closes the book too early, everybody judges another by a small sample of their work, and everyone writes off good teams, and talented players. And changing that way of thinking is one of my resolutions this year.
With that in mind, I would like to make a public ("public" in the sense of the four people that actually read my blog) apology to Michael Beasley. The uber-talented forward from the Minnesota Timbererwolves seemed like a lost soul not that long ago with the Miami Heat. As early as the summer before his rookie season, when he got in to a bit of off-court trouble (along with Mario Chalmers) at a preseason function, I declared him a bust. Boy, was I wrong.
Beasley is currently averaging 22 points and 6 rebounds per game, and is shooting a stifling 44% from 3-point range. He has teamed up with Kevin Love to form one of the most dynamic frontcourts in the entire Association, and he has found redemption in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. More importantly, he has proven all of his critics wrong, myself included.
I sincerely hope I am able to follow through on my resolution to not "close the book" early on others, to judge less, and to let things play out a bit more. Here's to hoping others do the same.
But, I am not alone in this. In fact, the mainstream media has made a living off of this very practice for the past ten years, to the point where the news is spoon-fed to us in 10-second sound bites. But alas, I digress. Nevertheless, those who have been watching Sportscenter over the past few weeks, reading about basketball on ESPN.com or any other major sports site, or even casually following the NBA, have likely encountered the following conversation among sportswriters:
Sportswriter 1: So, how about the Lakers slump, they sure look awful, don't they?
Sportswriter 2: Sure do. I think we are seeing the end of a dynasty.
Sportswriter 1: Well, they have lost four out of their last eight games, and they just don't have the spirit of an NBA Champion.
Sportswriter 2: That's right, and with teams like the San Antonio Spurs, nearly half a dozen games ahead of them in the Western Conference Standings, they look like they're in trouble this postseason.
Some of what these fictitious sportswriters just said is true. The Lakers have looked pretty mediocre of late. They have played an uninspiring brand of basketball, and they have been embarrassed - on their home court no less - by inferior teams who were merely hungrier for the W. But, while they have lost four out of their last eight games, they have also won nine out of their last 13. And that's not that bad.
In short, because of our expectations of what the Los Angeles Lakers were supposed to be like heading in to this season, we view their play-to-date as a let down. But, that does not require us to go that extra step and opine about how they are unlikely to advance far in the playoffs or contend for another Championship in June. But, this is nothing new. Just prior to the playoffs last season, every sportswriter, talking head, blogger, and friend of mine completely wrote off the Boston Celtics. After all, following a torrid start to the season, they were a .500 team over the last 50 games, and a few weeks before the second season they looked very average.
How did those Celtics do again? Oh, that's right, they came within two minutes of securing another championship, eventually losing in an epic seventh game to the Los Angeles Lakers.
So, while the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks have been winning consecutive games by the dozen, pasting their opponents, and racking up the W's, the Lakers have been playing down to their opponents, and are the only "top-tier" team without an impressive win streak.
What I am trying to say is this, in the world we live in today, where a 24-hour news cycle dominates our lives and tells us everything we need to know - and more information we could do without - we tend to look at issues solely in the "now," rather than analyzing those very issues in the grand scheme of things. Sure, the Lakers may look like an average team now, in January. But, what matters in sports is that you save your best for the playoffs, when it is "win and go home" time. After all, who knows what injuries, off-court incidents, or other issues might affect the top teams between now and April, when the NBA begins their annual four-month long playoff competition.
(NB: I say that as though I have a problem with watching basketball, when in fact the only problem I have is watching too much basketball. Case in point, the other night I watched the entire game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies. I am pretty sure NO ONE has ever watched an entire sporting event between teams based out of Oklahoma City and Memphis.)
Everybody closes the book too early, everybody judges another by a small sample of their work, and everyone writes off good teams, and talented players. And changing that way of thinking is one of my resolutions this year.
With that in mind, I would like to make a public ("public" in the sense of the four people that actually read my blog) apology to Michael Beasley. The uber-talented forward from the Minnesota Timbererwolves seemed like a lost soul not that long ago with the Miami Heat. As early as the summer before his rookie season, when he got in to a bit of off-court trouble (along with Mario Chalmers) at a preseason function, I declared him a bust. Boy, was I wrong.
Beasley is currently averaging 22 points and 6 rebounds per game, and is shooting a stifling 44% from 3-point range. He has teamed up with Kevin Love to form one of the most dynamic frontcourts in the entire Association, and he has found redemption in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. More importantly, he has proven all of his critics wrong, myself included.
I sincerely hope I am able to follow through on my resolution to not "close the book" early on others, to judge less, and to let things play out a bit more. Here's to hoping others do the same.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Blockbuster Season: Orlando Clears House
The Orlando Magic, losers of five of their last six games, decided to pull the trigger today on a trade they have been discussing for months, and, in so doing, provide NBA fans with the first "Blockbuster" trade of the year. In a one-for-one swap, the Magic sent combo-forward Rashard Lewis to the Washington Wizards for former All-Star - and current poster boy for the NRA - Gilbert Arenas. Orlando general manager Otis Smith, formerly a front office fixture for the Golden State Warriors is close with Arenas from his days in Oakland, and still speaks to Gilbert nearly three times a week. Since September, rumors had been swirling that the Magic would look to make a move for Arenas, a player who had more than worn out his welcome in the Nation's capital.
But, it wasn't until recently that Lewis began to show up on the Wizards' radar.
The commonly held belief was that the Wizards would look to move Arenas for Vince Carter and his cap-friendly contract (Carter essentially has an expiring deal, in that only $4 million of his $18 million salary in 2010/2011 is guaranteed.) But, over the past two weeks, with Lewis mired in his own slump, the Magic gravitated towards moving Rashard in lieu of V.C.
In acquiring Lewis, the Wizards fill a big hole in their lineup. While John Wall is a bona fide superstar, he really doesn't have anyone to kick the ball out to on the perimeter, which allows opposing defenses to collapse as he beats the initial defender off the dribble. Kirk Hinrich has never been a proficient outside shooter, and Nick Young - while currently on a nice streak of his own - is up and down from beyond the three-point line. However, Lewis is a career 39% three-point shooter, and with a career average of 16.5 points per game, he provides a potent scoring option for the Wizards on the wing. This addition should also help the development of the Wizards young frontcourt of Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, who will undoubtedly have more room to operate in the painted area.
While most pundits out there seem to think the Wizards got the better player, I would disagree. In addition to being out of Washington, a city where Gil was no longer welcome, Arenas appears to finally be healthy, and I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibility that he could return to something close to the form he was in from 2004 to 2007, perhaps averaging close to 20 points per game. While he will no longer be the number one option on this Orlando team (that honor belongs to Dwight Howard) he will be able to burn opposing defenses for doubling down on D12. Additionally, Arenas is a career 36% three-point shooter (pretty much compensating for the loss of Lewis) and an aggressive defender in the passing lanes (when he wants to play both sides of the ball.)
In short, I feel that this deal really helped both sides accomplish their goals. The Wizards moved past the "Gilbert Arenas Era," and settled the logjam in their backcourt, and the Magic dealt Rashard Lewis, who seemed to be in a funk since late last season, and was no longer a productive member of the Magic' outside-in offensive scheme.
The bigger story however, was the deal made minutes before, wherein the Magic sent Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, their 2011 first-round pick, and $3 million in cash to the Phoenix Suns for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark. From my perspective, this seems like a smart move for the Magic. They upgrade the shooting guard position by dealing VC for J-Rich, and, in so doing, improve their long-range shooting (Richardson is shooting 42% on the season, compared to Carter who is shooting 34% from "down town.") Given the Magic' offensive scheme, this seems like a stellar acquisition.
Furthermore, while I like Marcin Gortat for the Phoenix Suns, I did not like him for the Orlando Magic. He will undoubtedly get a chance to prove he is a starting center in the NBA when he takes the court for the Suns, and will definitely improve their rebounding on both ends of the court. He will also provide Phoenix with a formidable last line of defense (something that has been lacking in Phoenix since before Mike D'Antoni was around.) However, with Dwight Howard playing heavy minutes in Orlando, Gortat was pretty much an afterthought, and overpaid (earning over $6 million dollars per year to play 14 minutes per game.) Having him in Phoenix makes sense, having him in Orlando did not.
The Magic also reacquire their old employee Hedo Turkoglu, who has looked out of sorts ever since the 2009 NBA Finals when he was still a member of the Orlando Magic. While Turkoglu will never be a number one option, his ability to create, and initiate, offense will pay immense dividends for the Magic once more. Furthermore, when given the opportunity, he is a tremendous player in the clutch, and will provide the Magic with a legitimate crunch time player (something Vince Carter was never able to do during his time in Orlando.)
As a result of these moves, the Magic have assembled a team that ought to be better in the closing minutes of games, when dumping the ball in to Dwight is no longer an option due to his poor free throw shooting. While small, a lineup of Jameer Nelson, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Howard is still a strong lineup, and one capable of scoring from every position. Furthermore, while that lineup is a bit thin, having a tremendous rebounder and shot-blocker like Howard as the anchor of the defense, will more than compensate for the lack of bulk at the other positions. Finally, should the Magic choose to bring one of their newly-acquired players off the bench, and start Brandon Bass at power forward, they will still have a potent nine-man rotation with Quentin Richardson, Ryan Anderson and J.J. Reddick joining the previously mentioned players.
The problem is this, the Magic just replaced 60% of their starting lineup, and it will take a while to integrate these new pieces in to their system. While Turkoglu ought to blend in quite quickly, it will take longer for Gil and J-Rich to become part of a cohesive unit. Nevertheless, Arenas and Richardson are former teammates of one another from their time with the Golden State Warriors, and there is likely some chemistry between the two given the two years they spent as teammates in the Bay Area.
In terms of talent upgrades, the Magic are the big winners today.
In terms of sticking to a plan and moving forward as a franchise, the Wizards come out on top.
And, in terms of cutting salary, and acquiring the right pieces to fit in to place, the Suns are the victors this weekend.
Like any real blockbuster, this trade might be more about the initial fireworks than the substance of the deal, but I still believe it will benefit each and every team involved.
But, it wasn't until recently that Lewis began to show up on the Wizards' radar.
The commonly held belief was that the Wizards would look to move Arenas for Vince Carter and his cap-friendly contract (Carter essentially has an expiring deal, in that only $4 million of his $18 million salary in 2010/2011 is guaranteed.) But, over the past two weeks, with Lewis mired in his own slump, the Magic gravitated towards moving Rashard in lieu of V.C.
In acquiring Lewis, the Wizards fill a big hole in their lineup. While John Wall is a bona fide superstar, he really doesn't have anyone to kick the ball out to on the perimeter, which allows opposing defenses to collapse as he beats the initial defender off the dribble. Kirk Hinrich has never been a proficient outside shooter, and Nick Young - while currently on a nice streak of his own - is up and down from beyond the three-point line. However, Lewis is a career 39% three-point shooter, and with a career average of 16.5 points per game, he provides a potent scoring option for the Wizards on the wing. This addition should also help the development of the Wizards young frontcourt of Andray Blatche and JaVale McGee, who will undoubtedly have more room to operate in the painted area.
While most pundits out there seem to think the Wizards got the better player, I would disagree. In addition to being out of Washington, a city where Gil was no longer welcome, Arenas appears to finally be healthy, and I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibility that he could return to something close to the form he was in from 2004 to 2007, perhaps averaging close to 20 points per game. While he will no longer be the number one option on this Orlando team (that honor belongs to Dwight Howard) he will be able to burn opposing defenses for doubling down on D12. Additionally, Arenas is a career 36% three-point shooter (pretty much compensating for the loss of Lewis) and an aggressive defender in the passing lanes (when he wants to play both sides of the ball.)
In short, I feel that this deal really helped both sides accomplish their goals. The Wizards moved past the "Gilbert Arenas Era," and settled the logjam in their backcourt, and the Magic dealt Rashard Lewis, who seemed to be in a funk since late last season, and was no longer a productive member of the Magic' outside-in offensive scheme.
The bigger story however, was the deal made minutes before, wherein the Magic sent Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, their 2011 first-round pick, and $3 million in cash to the Phoenix Suns for Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Earl Clark. From my perspective, this seems like a smart move for the Magic. They upgrade the shooting guard position by dealing VC for J-Rich, and, in so doing, improve their long-range shooting (Richardson is shooting 42% on the season, compared to Carter who is shooting 34% from "down town.") Given the Magic' offensive scheme, this seems like a stellar acquisition.
Furthermore, while I like Marcin Gortat for the Phoenix Suns, I did not like him for the Orlando Magic. He will undoubtedly get a chance to prove he is a starting center in the NBA when he takes the court for the Suns, and will definitely improve their rebounding on both ends of the court. He will also provide Phoenix with a formidable last line of defense (something that has been lacking in Phoenix since before Mike D'Antoni was around.) However, with Dwight Howard playing heavy minutes in Orlando, Gortat was pretty much an afterthought, and overpaid (earning over $6 million dollars per year to play 14 minutes per game.) Having him in Phoenix makes sense, having him in Orlando did not.
The Magic also reacquire their old employee Hedo Turkoglu, who has looked out of sorts ever since the 2009 NBA Finals when he was still a member of the Orlando Magic. While Turkoglu will never be a number one option, his ability to create, and initiate, offense will pay immense dividends for the Magic once more. Furthermore, when given the opportunity, he is a tremendous player in the clutch, and will provide the Magic with a legitimate crunch time player (something Vince Carter was never able to do during his time in Orlando.)
As a result of these moves, the Magic have assembled a team that ought to be better in the closing minutes of games, when dumping the ball in to Dwight is no longer an option due to his poor free throw shooting. While small, a lineup of Jameer Nelson, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, Hedo Turkoglu and Howard is still a strong lineup, and one capable of scoring from every position. Furthermore, while that lineup is a bit thin, having a tremendous rebounder and shot-blocker like Howard as the anchor of the defense, will more than compensate for the lack of bulk at the other positions. Finally, should the Magic choose to bring one of their newly-acquired players off the bench, and start Brandon Bass at power forward, they will still have a potent nine-man rotation with Quentin Richardson, Ryan Anderson and J.J. Reddick joining the previously mentioned players.
The problem is this, the Magic just replaced 60% of their starting lineup, and it will take a while to integrate these new pieces in to their system. While Turkoglu ought to blend in quite quickly, it will take longer for Gil and J-Rich to become part of a cohesive unit. Nevertheless, Arenas and Richardson are former teammates of one another from their time with the Golden State Warriors, and there is likely some chemistry between the two given the two years they spent as teammates in the Bay Area.
In terms of talent upgrades, the Magic are the big winners today.
In terms of sticking to a plan and moving forward as a franchise, the Wizards come out on top.
And, in terms of cutting salary, and acquiring the right pieces to fit in to place, the Suns are the victors this weekend.
Like any real blockbuster, this trade might be more about the initial fireworks than the substance of the deal, but I still believe it will benefit each and every team involved.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
(Not Really) Rolling the Dice for 'Melo?
The 3-way trade executed by the New Jersey Nets, Houston Rockets, and Los Angeles Lakers today marks the first trade of the year that has the potential to cause a lasting effect on the league (sorry, but the trade sending Peja Stojakovic to Toronto did little to cause ripples throughout the league.) The broader ramifications of this trade have been discussed ad nauseam over the past 24 hours by the talking heads of the sports world, with everyone speculating that the trade - which sends two first round picks to the New Jersey Nets - is a mere precursor to the Nets pulling off a larger deal to pry Carmelo Anthony away from the Denver Nuggets.
For such a trade between the Nuggets and Nets to have any chance of being executed, the Nets would need some commitment by Anthony that he would resign with the franchise during the 2011 offseason. And yet, all we have heard over the past few weeks is that Melo would only sign with the Knicks this coming summer. Well then, what gives?
In my opinion, trading for Melo is a low-risk move for the Nets. Let's say that the Nuggets are willing to accept a package of Troy Murphy (expiring contract worth $12 million) and rookie Derrick Favors, along with two first round picks (let's say, their pick in 2011, and the Warriors lottery-protected 2011 first round pick). The Nuggets would be letting go of a young big man with "upside," and an aging big man who has been in the Coach Avery Johnson's doghouse all season. They would also lose two rather valuable picks, but then again, this years draft does not look all the hot. Additionally, with Carmelo Anthony, Brook Lopez, and Devin Harris as their core, the Nets could ostensibly rise from the doldrums of the Atlantic Division, make the playoffs, and end up giving up a pick that is not even in the lottery (note: if the Warriors end up in the lottery, which is about as likely as the earth orbiting the sun, the pick would be pushed to 2012, and on to 2013 until it either was a non-lottery pick, or merely a 2014 second round pick.)
So, all this clamoring about the Nets selling the franchise to rent Anthony for half a season is a bunch of nonsense. I would even argue that such a deal would be a bigger coup than the deal the Lakers pulled off in 2008, when they acquired Pau Gasol (after all, the Grizzlies did get Pau's younger brother Marc, and two first round picks). However, the question remains, could the Nets convince Anthony to resign in New Jersey this coming summer?
As I recall, it was a mere 5 months ago when people were talking about how players like LeBron, Stoudemire and Bosh were considering signing with New Jersey, because of their new owner, their proven head coach, their stud big man (Lopez) and the cachet of playing for a team partly owned by hip hop mogul Jay-Z that will be moving to Brooklyn in a few seasons. And last I checked, Brooklyn is considered to be a much more "hip" place these days than Manhattan, so I ask again, what gives?
Why not try to make that trade, and if Melo wants to jump ship in the offseason, so be it. The Nets will still have the Lakers 2011 first round pick and two first round picks in 2012 (their own, and the Rockets'.)
On another note, I think the other two teams involved in this trade, the Rockets and the Lakers, made out quite nicely.
The Rockets added a wing player with terrific athleticism in Terrence Williams. While he is not much of a shooter, he does have a knack for getting to the basket and involving his teammates in the offense, something that can not be said for the other Rockets wing players. In fact, Williams would fit quite nicely as a ballhandling small forward with players like Kevin Martin and Courtney Lee flanking him on the wings (particularly since the Rockets lack a true "playmaker" with Aaron Brooks still out with an injury.)
At first glance this trade does not make much sense for the Lakers (after all, why would you trade an expiring contract worth over $5 million for a player like Joe Smith, when you could possibly get more from a team desperate to shed payroll moving forward?) But, this trade was not just about Smith (who will fit quite nicely as a backup big man) despite his high basketball IQ and his ability to space the floor with a potent jump shot. No, this trade was about the two second round draft picks that the Lakers were able to acquire in the deal. In 2011, the Lakers will once again be without a first round draft pick, but they will have three second round draft picks (their own, the Bulls pick, and the Warriors pick.) Given the state of the Golden State Warriors franchise, it is not too crazy to think that their second round pick will be merely a few spots below the Lakers original first round pick. Add to that the fact that the Lakers save over $8 million in this deal, (when you factor in the luxury tax ramifications) and are not bound to sign any of their second round picks - therefore avoiding any type of salary hold for the 2011/2012 season - and I would argue that everyone came out of this deal doing just fine.
The big question remains, will Carmelo Anthony be traded, and which team will end up acquiring him. As of now, nobody knows. A lot of players have been rumored to be on the move - Andre Iguodala, O.J. Mayo, even Chris Paul to name a few - but with it being trade season in the NBA, the question remains, who is next?
For such a trade between the Nuggets and Nets to have any chance of being executed, the Nets would need some commitment by Anthony that he would resign with the franchise during the 2011 offseason. And yet, all we have heard over the past few weeks is that Melo would only sign with the Knicks this coming summer. Well then, what gives?
In my opinion, trading for Melo is a low-risk move for the Nets. Let's say that the Nuggets are willing to accept a package of Troy Murphy (expiring contract worth $12 million) and rookie Derrick Favors, along with two first round picks (let's say, their pick in 2011, and the Warriors lottery-protected 2011 first round pick). The Nuggets would be letting go of a young big man with "upside," and an aging big man who has been in the Coach Avery Johnson's doghouse all season. They would also lose two rather valuable picks, but then again, this years draft does not look all the hot. Additionally, with Carmelo Anthony, Brook Lopez, and Devin Harris as their core, the Nets could ostensibly rise from the doldrums of the Atlantic Division, make the playoffs, and end up giving up a pick that is not even in the lottery (note: if the Warriors end up in the lottery, which is about as likely as the earth orbiting the sun, the pick would be pushed to 2012, and on to 2013 until it either was a non-lottery pick, or merely a 2014 second round pick.)
So, all this clamoring about the Nets selling the franchise to rent Anthony for half a season is a bunch of nonsense. I would even argue that such a deal would be a bigger coup than the deal the Lakers pulled off in 2008, when they acquired Pau Gasol (after all, the Grizzlies did get Pau's younger brother Marc, and two first round picks). However, the question remains, could the Nets convince Anthony to resign in New Jersey this coming summer?
As I recall, it was a mere 5 months ago when people were talking about how players like LeBron, Stoudemire and Bosh were considering signing with New Jersey, because of their new owner, their proven head coach, their stud big man (Lopez) and the cachet of playing for a team partly owned by hip hop mogul Jay-Z that will be moving to Brooklyn in a few seasons. And last I checked, Brooklyn is considered to be a much more "hip" place these days than Manhattan, so I ask again, what gives?
Why not try to make that trade, and if Melo wants to jump ship in the offseason, so be it. The Nets will still have the Lakers 2011 first round pick and two first round picks in 2012 (their own, and the Rockets'.)
On another note, I think the other two teams involved in this trade, the Rockets and the Lakers, made out quite nicely.
The Rockets added a wing player with terrific athleticism in Terrence Williams. While he is not much of a shooter, he does have a knack for getting to the basket and involving his teammates in the offense, something that can not be said for the other Rockets wing players. In fact, Williams would fit quite nicely as a ballhandling small forward with players like Kevin Martin and Courtney Lee flanking him on the wings (particularly since the Rockets lack a true "playmaker" with Aaron Brooks still out with an injury.)
At first glance this trade does not make much sense for the Lakers (after all, why would you trade an expiring contract worth over $5 million for a player like Joe Smith, when you could possibly get more from a team desperate to shed payroll moving forward?) But, this trade was not just about Smith (who will fit quite nicely as a backup big man) despite his high basketball IQ and his ability to space the floor with a potent jump shot. No, this trade was about the two second round draft picks that the Lakers were able to acquire in the deal. In 2011, the Lakers will once again be without a first round draft pick, but they will have three second round draft picks (their own, the Bulls pick, and the Warriors pick.) Given the state of the Golden State Warriors franchise, it is not too crazy to think that their second round pick will be merely a few spots below the Lakers original first round pick. Add to that the fact that the Lakers save over $8 million in this deal, (when you factor in the luxury tax ramifications) and are not bound to sign any of their second round picks - therefore avoiding any type of salary hold for the 2011/2012 season - and I would argue that everyone came out of this deal doing just fine.
The big question remains, will Carmelo Anthony be traded, and which team will end up acquiring him. As of now, nobody knows. A lot of players have been rumored to be on the move - Andre Iguodala, O.J. Mayo, even Chris Paul to name a few - but with it being trade season in the NBA, the question remains, who is next?
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Injured Big Men: Don't Sell Too Soon on a Reclamation Project
Much has been made this season of the fact that Greg Oden suffered another setback in his road to recovery. The Portland big man is now going to miss another entire season, and, despite having been in the league for four years, he has only played a total of 82 games. In other words, he has missed three seasons worth of games in his first four years. People are calling him a bust. Some are lamenting the fact that Portland once again whiffed on a top draft choice, bringing back memories of the 1984 NBA Draft, when these same Trail Blazers chose Sam Bowie over one Michael Jeffrey Jordan. We all know how that unfolded, so there is really no need to kick Portland fans while they are down.
However, what is often forgotten about Bowie, and many other big men who do not turn out just as we had all expected, is that he went on to have a very productive career for a number of NBA franchises. By all objective standards, Bowie had a very productive first season in Portland, playing in 76 out of 82 games, he posted averages of 10.0ppg, 8.6rpg, 2.8apg, a whopping 2.7 blocks per game, and shot over 54% from the field and 71% from the line. Not bad production out of a starting center, right? Then he got hurt. Again! Now, bear in mind, Sam Bowie was not the healthiest college kid to ever join the Association. Just as Greg Oden had health issues during his one year at Ohio State (a broken wrist, and the observation that one of his legs was longer than the other), Bowie had his share of
injury concerns. But, Bowie was able to bounce back, albeit four years later.
During the 1989-1990 season, Bowie, now the starting center for the New Jersey Nets, posted more than 14 points, and 10 rebounds per game. While he was no longer controlling the paint on the offensive end (his field goal percentage hovered just above 41%) he was able to register nearly 2 blocks per game, suggesting that he was still a defensive presence for his team. He would go on to have another three productive seasons for the Nets, before heading West, and joining the Lakers for his last two years. Even then, Bowie was productive while he was on the floor.
Bowie never lived up to the billing. He was no Kareem, he was no Wilt, and he was no Bill Russell. Hell, he wasn't even the best center chosen in the '84 draft (a little guy named Hakeem Olajuwon holds that title). But, he was, in all regards, a productive center while he was on the court.
The problem is, we all expected Bowie to be more than he turned out to be. And, we held it against him. And now, we are doing the same thing to Greg Oden. In fact, Oden is not alone. Andrew Bynum, the oft-injured, and soon-to-return, center for the Los Angeles Lakers, has taken a lot of heat over the past three seasons, as he has continued to struggle with injuries that have limited his ability to be effective on the court. The problem is, most of us don't understand that when you are over seven feet tall, and you injure yourself, it takes a great deal longer to rehab from that injury, if rehabilitation is even an option.
Bill Walton, perhaps the greatest "could-have-been" NBA talent, a National Champion at UCLA, an MVP of the NBA, and a two-time NBA Champion, played over 50 games per season only three times in his first nine seasons in the NBA. He was betrayed by his feet, plain and simple. But Walton's early career struggles were overshadowed by the fact that he was able to rebound (literally and figuratively.) During the 1985-1986 season, Walton came back to the game. This time in a new role, as a sixth man. He no longer had the ability to do the things he once did on the court, but the talent was still there. And that talent - namely his rebounding and utterly unselfish style - helped propel the Boston Celtics to the NBA Finals, and another storied championship. A year later, Walton was done.
The NBA is littered with such stories of big men who were much hyped coming in to the league, only to crash and burn ... and later rise like the Phoenix from the ashes. Marcus Camby, one of the better college players over the last 20 years, struggled mightily his first four seasons in the league. A trade to the New York Knicks, and later the Denver Nuggets, rejuvenated his career, and he went on to establish himself as one of the premier rebounders and shot-blockers in the NBA. Over the past ten seasons, Camby has averaged better than 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Not too shabby. Longtime Cavalier, and now Miami Heat, Zydrunas Ilgauskus suffered the same fate. After an injury-free rookie campaign during the 1997-1998 season his career derailed for the better part of three seasons. But much like Walton, Bowie, and Camby, he came back. Since 2002, Ilgauskus has played in 73 or more games per season all but twice (and during those two seasons, he played in 65 and 64 games.) Big Z also became a proficient spot up shooter - deadly from the free throw line-extended - and still held his own on defense, patrolling the paint.
Once left for dead, and thought to be washed up, players like Walton, Ilgauskus, Bowie and Camby, all had a renaissance later in their careers. What does this tell us about players like Oden and Bynum you ask? Well, nothing really. All of these players are unique in some way. Nonetheless, aside from their large frames, these men all possessed an inner resilience to bounce back from injury, no matter how long it took them. Despite not necessarily panning out for the franchises they were drafted by, these men all went on to have productive careers, and were able to make their teams better (NB: Bill Walton did lead the Portland Trail Blazers to an NBA Championship in 1977, averaging 18.6 points, 14.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 3.2 blocks per game and earning Finals MVP honors.)
The question remains: are we giving up too early on Oden and Bynum? I think so. For the longest time, I was willing to just close the book on a player if he didn't pan out immediately. I will admit, I thought Michael Beasley was going to be dead or in jail by this point in his career. Thankfully I was wrong. I still believe these two big men hold value for many franchises. However, we are also too often blinded by the dollar signs, and the reality that these players make a lot of money for relatively little result on the hardwood. But again, that's not their fault (after all, would you turn down an eight-figure deal if offered to you?)
Big men do not control NBA games the way they used to. Speedy guards and star players on the wing are much more effective at controlling the tenor of a game on a nightly basis. However, big man still hold value to their teams for the things they do, namely rebounding, shot blocking, and racking up fouls on the opposing team. While Greg Oden and Andrew Bynum may fall short of the lofty expectations we assigned to them, they may yet make fools of us all and go on to lead very productive careers. I sure hope they do just that.
However, what is often forgotten about Bowie, and many other big men who do not turn out just as we had all expected, is that he went on to have a very productive career for a number of NBA franchises. By all objective standards, Bowie had a very productive first season in Portland, playing in 76 out of 82 games, he posted averages of 10.0ppg, 8.6rpg, 2.8apg, a whopping 2.7 blocks per game, and shot over 54% from the field and 71% from the line. Not bad production out of a starting center, right? Then he got hurt. Again! Now, bear in mind, Sam Bowie was not the healthiest college kid to ever join the Association. Just as Greg Oden had health issues during his one year at Ohio State (a broken wrist, and the observation that one of his legs was longer than the other), Bowie had his share of
injury concerns. But, Bowie was able to bounce back, albeit four years later.
During the 1989-1990 season, Bowie, now the starting center for the New Jersey Nets, posted more than 14 points, and 10 rebounds per game. While he was no longer controlling the paint on the offensive end (his field goal percentage hovered just above 41%) he was able to register nearly 2 blocks per game, suggesting that he was still a defensive presence for his team. He would go on to have another three productive seasons for the Nets, before heading West, and joining the Lakers for his last two years. Even then, Bowie was productive while he was on the floor.
Bowie never lived up to the billing. He was no Kareem, he was no Wilt, and he was no Bill Russell. Hell, he wasn't even the best center chosen in the '84 draft (a little guy named Hakeem Olajuwon holds that title). But, he was, in all regards, a productive center while he was on the court.
The problem is, we all expected Bowie to be more than he turned out to be. And, we held it against him. And now, we are doing the same thing to Greg Oden. In fact, Oden is not alone. Andrew Bynum, the oft-injured, and soon-to-return, center for the Los Angeles Lakers, has taken a lot of heat over the past three seasons, as he has continued to struggle with injuries that have limited his ability to be effective on the court. The problem is, most of us don't understand that when you are over seven feet tall, and you injure yourself, it takes a great deal longer to rehab from that injury, if rehabilitation is even an option.
Bill Walton, perhaps the greatest "could-have-been" NBA talent, a National Champion at UCLA, an MVP of the NBA, and a two-time NBA Champion, played over 50 games per season only three times in his first nine seasons in the NBA. He was betrayed by his feet, plain and simple. But Walton's early career struggles were overshadowed by the fact that he was able to rebound (literally and figuratively.) During the 1985-1986 season, Walton came back to the game. This time in a new role, as a sixth man. He no longer had the ability to do the things he once did on the court, but the talent was still there. And that talent - namely his rebounding and utterly unselfish style - helped propel the Boston Celtics to the NBA Finals, and another storied championship. A year later, Walton was done.
The NBA is littered with such stories of big men who were much hyped coming in to the league, only to crash and burn ... and later rise like the Phoenix from the ashes. Marcus Camby, one of the better college players over the last 20 years, struggled mightily his first four seasons in the league. A trade to the New York Knicks, and later the Denver Nuggets, rejuvenated his career, and he went on to establish himself as one of the premier rebounders and shot-blockers in the NBA. Over the past ten seasons, Camby has averaged better than 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Not too shabby. Longtime Cavalier, and now Miami Heat, Zydrunas Ilgauskus suffered the same fate. After an injury-free rookie campaign during the 1997-1998 season his career derailed for the better part of three seasons. But much like Walton, Bowie, and Camby, he came back. Since 2002, Ilgauskus has played in 73 or more games per season all but twice (and during those two seasons, he played in 65 and 64 games.) Big Z also became a proficient spot up shooter - deadly from the free throw line-extended - and still held his own on defense, patrolling the paint.
Once left for dead, and thought to be washed up, players like Walton, Ilgauskus, Bowie and Camby, all had a renaissance later in their careers. What does this tell us about players like Oden and Bynum you ask? Well, nothing really. All of these players are unique in some way. Nonetheless, aside from their large frames, these men all possessed an inner resilience to bounce back from injury, no matter how long it took them. Despite not necessarily panning out for the franchises they were drafted by, these men all went on to have productive careers, and were able to make their teams better (NB: Bill Walton did lead the Portland Trail Blazers to an NBA Championship in 1977, averaging 18.6 points, 14.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 3.2 blocks per game and earning Finals MVP honors.)
The question remains: are we giving up too early on Oden and Bynum? I think so. For the longest time, I was willing to just close the book on a player if he didn't pan out immediately. I will admit, I thought Michael Beasley was going to be dead or in jail by this point in his career. Thankfully I was wrong. I still believe these two big men hold value for many franchises. However, we are also too often blinded by the dollar signs, and the reality that these players make a lot of money for relatively little result on the hardwood. But again, that's not their fault (after all, would you turn down an eight-figure deal if offered to you?)
Big men do not control NBA games the way they used to. Speedy guards and star players on the wing are much more effective at controlling the tenor of a game on a nightly basis. However, big man still hold value to their teams for the things they do, namely rebounding, shot blocking, and racking up fouls on the opposing team. While Greg Oden and Andrew Bynum may fall short of the lofty expectations we assigned to them, they may yet make fools of us all and go on to lead very productive careers. I sure hope they do just that.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Giving Thanks for Good Point Guards
It is no secret that the NBA is currently witnessing a renaissance at the point guard position. From the young kids like John Wall and Derrick Rose, to the grizzled old veterans like Jason Kidd and Chauncey Billups, the setup man is perhaps the strongest position in the NBA right now. And to think, it seems like just yesterday that the Association was in dire need of talented point guards (I know I am not the only person who remembers the ball-hogging ways of Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis.)
There are currently 14 point guards (15 if you count LeBron James, whose skill set is most like that of a talented point guard) averaging over 7.0 assists per game, with five of those guards averaging more than nine assists per game. To put that in to perspective, during the 2005-2006 season, only nine point guards averaged more than 7.0 assists per game, and only one of those point guards (eventual MVP, Steve Nash) would go on to average more than nine assists per game. When you delve deeper in to the players currently manning the point position, as compared to those five years ago, the talent disparity is daunting. Of those point guards who ranked in the top-10 in assists per game during the 2005-2006 season, we find such transcendent talents as Brevin Knight, Luke Ridnour and Rafer Alston. Not exactly the murderer's row of setup men.
Listing the top-10 point guards (as measured by assists per game) in the NBA right now is not enough, as it does not account for players like Tony Parker, Raymond Felton, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, all players under the age of 30, all players who are capable of putting up a gaudy stat line n a nightly basis. However, the number of assists a point guard records in a given night is not always telling of a player's true value, or just how important that player is to his team. For instance, Chauncey Billups (the artists formerly known as "Mr. Big Shot") is currently averaging merely 4.7 assists per game, a dip from previous seasons. However, Chauncey Billups, even at the age of 34, is still one of the best leaders in the game and a player that any coach would want to lead their team. In short, being a good point guard is about being a good leader. And that is why I am so thankful for the crop of point guards that exists in the NBA right now.
I have always been one for making lists (just ask my closest friends with whom I regularly make lists on virtually every topic) and right now I would like to share with all of you my point guard list, and where I feel the current crop of starting lead guards fall into.
Category One: The Youth Movement: Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, John Wall, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Jrue Holiday, D.J. Augustin, Raymond Felton, Aaron Brooks, Mike Conley, Stephen Curry, Darren Collison, Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans. These point guards - some of them, such as Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry, might even be considered combo-guards - are all under the age of 26 and all bring a different type of game to the court. Some are pure distributors (Rondo and Paul certainly come to mind), while others are best known for their lock down defense (Westbrook), or ability to stretch the defense out to the 3-point line (Stephen Curry is already one of the better marksmen in the league.) While Jrue Holiday, D.J. Augustin and Mike Conley might look out of place on this list of veritable top-40 talents, they too bring a mixture of athleticism, court-vision, defensive posturing, and an ability to break down opposing defenses off the dribble that makes them part of this category of point guards.
Category Two: Wise Old Veterans: This tier of point guards is best personified by two-time MVP Steve Nash, who is still leading the Suns as one of the top offensive machines in the NBA. Additionally, players like Jason Kidd (8ppg, 9.3apg, 3.8rpg, 1.8spg) and the aforementioned Chauncey Billups belong on this list. So too does Andre Miller (perhaps the most overlooked point guard of the past decade) and Tony Parker (the guy ONLY helped guide the Spurs to three NBA Championships in the past eight years.) Additionally, a player like Derek Fisher, whose numbers have never spoken to the strength of his game, belongs in this category of point guards. What these men all share in common is a knowledge of the game, an ability to take what an opposing player is giving them, and a knack for timely buckets. While these men (with the exception of Parker, who is only 28 years old) are undoubtedly on the downhill of their careers, they continue to put up impressive statistics - Derek Fisher not withstanding - but more importantly they continue to lead their teams to victory. Over the past three seasons, Nash (Phoenix), Kidd (Dallas), Billups (Detroit/Denver), Parker (San Antonio), Miller (Philadelphia/Portland) and Fisher (Los Angeles Lakers) have all continued to lead their teams deep in to the playoffs.
Category Three: Point Guard Grab Bag: Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, Kirk Hinrich, Jose Calderon, Ty Lawson and Goran Dragich. This category of point guards accounts for those players who either fly under the radar (Nelson and Harris) or are currently backing up older, more established set up men and therefore have yet to get enough minutes to showcase their talents (Lawson and Dragich). Additionally, players like Kirk Hinrich and Jose Calderon, have shown in past years that they are capable of leading a team, and are currently hidden on franchises going nowhere (NB: Hinrich is helping along the current generation of point guards in that he is somewhat of a tutor to John Wall on the Washington Wizards).
All in all, these three categories of point guards account for 27 players in total. The franchises most in need of leadership and talent from the point guard position are Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Miami, Minnesota, and the Los Angeles Clippers. However, with Jeff Teague in Atlanta, the Timberwolves currently owning Ricky Rubio's NBA rights, and Kentucky-rookie Eric Bledson shining in limited minutes for the Clippers, this too might change. Additionally, with the infusion of talent this past summer in South Beach, the Heat are not really in need of a point guard so much as they are in need of additional shooters to space the floor for court-visionaries like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
Not too long I remember ESPN columnist, and the self-proclaimed "Sports Guy," Bill Simmons writing about how Jason Kidd should be automatically assigned to play in the NBA All-Star Game on an annual basis because he is one of the few true point guards that makes his teammates better and knows how to distribute properly. Given all the point guards, young and old, who currently fit that bill, I think it is fair to say that even if Jason Kidd is winding down his career in the NBA, that the point guard position is resting in some pretty steady hands.
There are currently 14 point guards (15 if you count LeBron James, whose skill set is most like that of a talented point guard) averaging over 7.0 assists per game, with five of those guards averaging more than nine assists per game. To put that in to perspective, during the 2005-2006 season, only nine point guards averaged more than 7.0 assists per game, and only one of those point guards (eventual MVP, Steve Nash) would go on to average more than nine assists per game. When you delve deeper in to the players currently manning the point position, as compared to those five years ago, the talent disparity is daunting. Of those point guards who ranked in the top-10 in assists per game during the 2005-2006 season, we find such transcendent talents as Brevin Knight, Luke Ridnour and Rafer Alston. Not exactly the murderer's row of setup men.
Listing the top-10 point guards (as measured by assists per game) in the NBA right now is not enough, as it does not account for players like Tony Parker, Raymond Felton, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, all players under the age of 30, all players who are capable of putting up a gaudy stat line n a nightly basis. However, the number of assists a point guard records in a given night is not always telling of a player's true value, or just how important that player is to his team. For instance, Chauncey Billups (the artists formerly known as "Mr. Big Shot") is currently averaging merely 4.7 assists per game, a dip from previous seasons. However, Chauncey Billups, even at the age of 34, is still one of the best leaders in the game and a player that any coach would want to lead their team. In short, being a good point guard is about being a good leader. And that is why I am so thankful for the crop of point guards that exists in the NBA right now.
I have always been one for making lists (just ask my closest friends with whom I regularly make lists on virtually every topic) and right now I would like to share with all of you my point guard list, and where I feel the current crop of starting lead guards fall into.
Category One: The Youth Movement: Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, John Wall, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Jrue Holiday, D.J. Augustin, Raymond Felton, Aaron Brooks, Mike Conley, Stephen Curry, Darren Collison, Brandon Jennings and Tyreke Evans. These point guards - some of them, such as Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry, might even be considered combo-guards - are all under the age of 26 and all bring a different type of game to the court. Some are pure distributors (Rondo and Paul certainly come to mind), while others are best known for their lock down defense (Westbrook), or ability to stretch the defense out to the 3-point line (Stephen Curry is already one of the better marksmen in the league.) While Jrue Holiday, D.J. Augustin and Mike Conley might look out of place on this list of veritable top-40 talents, they too bring a mixture of athleticism, court-vision, defensive posturing, and an ability to break down opposing defenses off the dribble that makes them part of this category of point guards.
Category Two: Wise Old Veterans: This tier of point guards is best personified by two-time MVP Steve Nash, who is still leading the Suns as one of the top offensive machines in the NBA. Additionally, players like Jason Kidd (8ppg, 9.3apg, 3.8rpg, 1.8spg) and the aforementioned Chauncey Billups belong on this list. So too does Andre Miller (perhaps the most overlooked point guard of the past decade) and Tony Parker (the guy ONLY helped guide the Spurs to three NBA Championships in the past eight years.) Additionally, a player like Derek Fisher, whose numbers have never spoken to the strength of his game, belongs in this category of point guards. What these men all share in common is a knowledge of the game, an ability to take what an opposing player is giving them, and a knack for timely buckets. While these men (with the exception of Parker, who is only 28 years old) are undoubtedly on the downhill of their careers, they continue to put up impressive statistics - Derek Fisher not withstanding - but more importantly they continue to lead their teams to victory. Over the past three seasons, Nash (Phoenix), Kidd (Dallas), Billups (Detroit/Denver), Parker (San Antonio), Miller (Philadelphia/Portland) and Fisher (Los Angeles Lakers) have all continued to lead their teams deep in to the playoffs.
Category Three: Point Guard Grab Bag: Devin Harris, Jameer Nelson, Kirk Hinrich, Jose Calderon, Ty Lawson and Goran Dragich. This category of point guards accounts for those players who either fly under the radar (Nelson and Harris) or are currently backing up older, more established set up men and therefore have yet to get enough minutes to showcase their talents (Lawson and Dragich). Additionally, players like Kirk Hinrich and Jose Calderon, have shown in past years that they are capable of leading a team, and are currently hidden on franchises going nowhere (NB: Hinrich is helping along the current generation of point guards in that he is somewhat of a tutor to John Wall on the Washington Wizards).
All in all, these three categories of point guards account for 27 players in total. The franchises most in need of leadership and talent from the point guard position are Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Miami, Minnesota, and the Los Angeles Clippers. However, with Jeff Teague in Atlanta, the Timberwolves currently owning Ricky Rubio's NBA rights, and Kentucky-rookie Eric Bledson shining in limited minutes for the Clippers, this too might change. Additionally, with the infusion of talent this past summer in South Beach, the Heat are not really in need of a point guard so much as they are in need of additional shooters to space the floor for court-visionaries like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
Not too long I remember ESPN columnist, and the self-proclaimed "Sports Guy," Bill Simmons writing about how Jason Kidd should be automatically assigned to play in the NBA All-Star Game on an annual basis because he is one of the few true point guards that makes his teammates better and knows how to distribute properly. Given all the point guards, young and old, who currently fit that bill, I think it is fair to say that even if Jason Kidd is winding down his career in the NBA, that the point guard position is resting in some pretty steady hands.
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