Eastern Conference Preview

Eastern Conference:

Running on Empty
15. Cleveland: There is very little to like in Cleveland in terms of the Cavaliers' chances this season. While rookie Kyrie Irving is projected by many to be the next great point guard, the fact that he has few quality players surrounding him on the wings will likely spell doom for the Cavs. The best thing for Cleveland is to finish with a high lottery pick and add some more pieces to a developing core of Irving and Tristan Thompson. Outside of those two, only other intriguing young players on the Cavs' roster is Omri Casspi (unless of course you're high on Alonzo Gee and Manny Harris.) Expected Win Total: 18.

14. Detroit: Though I expect them to finish with a better record than the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Detroit Pistons are probably in a worse position than their Central Division cohorts, as the Pistons are - and will continue to be - beleaguered by questionable contracts. They currently have a glut of young small forwards with Austin Daye, Jonas Jerekbo, and Kyle Singler, and somehow Joe Dumars - in all his wisdom - thought it was a good idea to sign Tayshaun Prince to a contract extension paying the 31-year old Wildcat an average of $11 million over the next three seasons. Add to that the lack of a true point guard, and a surplus of combo guards in Ben Gordon, Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey, and the Pistons don't have much to point to in terms of a bright spot in their future. Perhaps the one thing Dumars has done right over the past few years was drafting Greg Monroe out of Georgetown. The former Hoya showed flashes of brilliance last season, and perhaps he and Brandon Knight can team-up to form a formidable pick-and-roll tandem. Nevertheless, with onerous contracts assigned to Prince, Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, it is hard to see how the Pistons will improve internally. Like in Cleveland, it will have to come through the draft. Expected Win Total: 20

13. Charlotte: The Bobcats might have the least talented lineup in the NBA, but they have shown over the past few years that they can play defense. As such, I expect them to edge out Cleveland and Detroit in the Eastern Conference basement. The thought of a Tyrus-Thomas-Boris Diaw-Bismack Biyombo front line ensures that the Bobcats will finish last in the NBA in scoring, as their stable of guards (D.J. Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette, and Kemba Walker) leaves a lot to be desired as well. Michael Jordan is probably the worst owner in the Association, but Paul Silas has proven at every stop along the way that he knows how to get the most out of his players. Expected Win Total: 21

Rebuilding Mode
12. Toronto: The Raptors have a new coach (Dwane Casey) but the same old problem, they don't have a go-to scorer, and their lineup is a hodge-podge of poorly-fitting pieces. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement provision, which allows for each team to waive a player, and not have it count against them for luxury tax purposes, or the salary cap, seems tailor-made for this team. They will be paying center Andrea Bargnani $9.25 million this season to shoot three pointers and avoid grabbing rebounds, $9.75 million for Jose Calderon to make us wish that NBA contracts were not guaranteed, $7.6 million to a washed-up Leandro Barbosa (who has not been the same since he left Phoenix, and the comfort of having skip passes thrown his way from Steve Nash) and over $4.5 million to Linas Kleiza, who is a nice little player, but not for that money. Hopefully Dwane Casey can get Ed Davis and Amir Johnson to buy in to his defensive philosophy, as those big man are capable of being defensive stoppers, given proper coaching.  Expected Win Total: 23

11. Washington: I fully expect John Wall to make "the leap" this season, and in so doing, improve the play of those around him. He has two talented scorers at the shooting guard position with Nick Young and Jordan Crawford signed up for this season, and athletes who can run the floor and protect the paint in JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche. I also think Rashard Lewis will be able to give them a lot more than people are expecting at the small forward position, and whenever Jan Vesely comes over they will have a pretty strong core of young ballers. I struggled with the idea of having the Wizards sneak in to the playoffs this season, as they have the type of depth that teams need to successfully navigate through a shortened and compressed season. Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Booker, and Chris Singleton should be able to give them strong minutes off the bench up front, while Maurice Evans should provide them with veteran leadership and a strong locker room voice. Though they might not be there yet, with a Wall-Young/Crawford-Singleton-Vesely/Blatche-McGee seven-man rotation, they should be a playoff team beginning next season and for a number of years thereafter. Expected Win Total: 27

Potential Playoff Fodder
10. Milwaukee: Once again, let me say it, depth matters in a compressed season. The Milwaukee Bucks never really had a chance last season to put the personnel out on the court that they had hoped to play. Injuries to Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings destroyed any chance they had of competing for a place in the post season. However, they have a very deep front court (Bogut, Drew Gooden, Jon Brockman, Tobias Harris, Larry Sanders, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jon Leuer and Ersan Ilyasova) and some new pieces on the wings (Mike Dunleavy and Stephen Jackson) that can help them in myriad ways. They should be able to improve upon their horrid offensive showing last year with their recent additions, but I still don't think they have the pieces to move up in to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Expected Win Total: 28

9. New Jersey: Though the Nets have depth (Jordan Farmer and Ben Uzoh backing up Deron Williams and plenty of bigs to spell Brook Lopez, including the newly resigned Kris Kardashian Humphries) they lack talent beyond Deron Williams. For everything Brook Lopez contributes on the offensive end, he regressed last season and pulled down a paltry 6.5 rebounds/game. Reportedly, the Nets' staff will be tracking all of Lopez' potential rebound opportunities, perhaps in a move to light a fire under his ass, but unless he can start playing like a true big man, Deron Williams will be left to do most of the heavy lifting. I like the addition of Marshon Brooks to this team, but unless New Jersey can swing a trade for Dwight Howard, I don't think they have the chops to make it to the second season. Expected Win Total: 30

One-and-Out in the Playoffs
8. Atlanta: Introducing my pick to see the greatest drop-off in play from the 2010 season in the Eastern Conference. While the Hawks return their starting five, (though Jeff Teague is likely to replace Kirk Hinrich at point guard to begin the season) the loss of Jamal Crawford cannot be understood solely through the lens of Crawford's ability to put the ball in the hoop. Rather, Crawford was at times the only player who was able to initiate the offense and score easy points for the Hawks. Atlanta will be relying more on the likes of Marvin Williams this season, and added veterans Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmonovic and Jerry Stackhouse are unlikely to give them much in the way of replacement value for Crawford. It is also quite possible that the Hawks deal defensive stalwart Josh Smith during the season, as ownership has shown a reluctance to exceed the luxury tax. If Atlanta were to make such a move, they would surely slide out of the playoff picture and back in to the lottery, erasing years of progress.  Expected Win Total: 32

7. Philadelphia: Doug Collins shocked a lot of people last year when he coached the 76ers back in to the playoffs. The Sixers return with their lineup virtually intact, and have the requisite depth to deal with multiple back-to-back games. Jrue Holiday showed that he is a stud in the making last year, and should be able to add to his repertoire by taking over more of the offensive reigns from Andre Iguodala. Nevertheless, Iguodala might be the most underrated wing defender in the NBA right now. So long as Evan Turner, Lou Williams and Thadeus Young can give them some scoring from the wings, the Sixers should be fine on that end of the court. Elton Brand had a great bounce back season in 2010-2011, and if he can stay healthy, he will be a tremendous asset for Philadelphia this season. Spencer Hawes is slated as their starting center to begin the season, but I wouldn't sleep on rookie Nikola Vucevic out of USC. So long as he can continue hitting long jump shots and spacing the floor like he did in college, he will allow Coach Collins to play him in a lineup of Holiday, Williams, Iguodala, and Brand that should be able to challenge teams inside and out. Expected Win Total: 34


6. Orlando: Predicting the likelihood of success for the Orlando Magic is very difficult without first knowing the answer to the following question: how much longer will Dwight be playing in the shadow of the Epcot Center? In short, the Orlando Magic go as Dwight goes, and lately Dwight has given every hint that he wants to go...elsewhere. Otis Smith doubled-down in the off season, resigning Jason Richardson to a 4-year extension (always a risky move for a 30-year old shooting guard with a spotty history of injuries) and sending out the very productive Brandon Bass, for the over-hyped, undersized, defenseless and limited child known as Glen Davis. The former LSU Tiger was able to succeed in Boston despite his skill set. Without a transcendent point guard (Jameer Nelson is a fine little guard, but far from the visionary that is Rajon Rondo) or multiple shooters to surround him, Davis is likely to be exposed for what he is. Additionally, Dwight has not much growth on the offensive end and the other Magic players are getting a bit long in the tooth to provide the scoring punch and defensive stops to make this team a contender. I fully expect for Dwight to be wearing a different jersey by the time next year, though it is not clear whether he will be traded in-season. Expected Win Total: 39

Getting Frisky
5. New York: The Amare-Carmelo duo will play another season together without an entire training camp under the belt, but this time, they have some protection up front with the addition of NBA Finals "defensive ace" Tyson Chandler. Though I think his signing has been over hyped, he will be able to help the Knicks start the fast break more often with his ability to stop players in the post and stymie penetrating guards. Nevertheless, Chandler's addition came at the expense of the Knicks' back court, as it required New York to waive guard Chauncey Billups. Though the Knicks have since added Baron Davis - who is likely to be out for the first six plus weeks of the season with a back injury - their back court consists of Mike Bibby, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert. Unless that foursome can provide Mike D'Antoni with quality minutes and the ability to light it up from outside, it won't matter how much Amare and 'Melo can dazzle on Broadway. Expected Win Total: 41

4. Indiana: Not only does this team have a terrific, young core of players who are likely to be around for years to come (Darren Collison, George Hill, Paul George, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, David West, and Roy Hibbert) but they have the depth to compete this season and perhaps win a playoff series.  David West gives them a proven power forward at a great price (though questions remain about his surgically-repaired knee), someone who can play the pick-and-roll or step out and hit a 17-foot jump shot, and allows Tyler Hansbrough to be an effective seventh man off the bench. Darren Collison will be pushed by the addition of George Hill, but I believe Hill's addition will have the effect of making both players reach their full potential, and, given Hill's length and shooting ability, it is quite possible the two will spend time together in the back court.  Roy Hibbert provides the Pacers with a stable and solid presence in the middle, and Danny Granger - when healthy - is one of the more dynamic players in the NBA. I like what Indiana has right now, and I think it is only going to get better. Expected Win Total: 44

3. Boston: I am not sure what to make of Boston, or what to expect from them this season. I love the Brandon Bass trade, but I think adding players like Keyon Dooling, Sasha Pavlovic and Chris Wilcox does little to help them now, or in the future. No team will be hit as hard by the compressed schedule as the Boston Celtics, whose "Big Three" are an average of 35 years old. Nevertheless, this team knows how to win, they know how to play strong defense, and above all else, they trust one another. Expected Win Total: 46

The Contenders
2. Chicago: I have been vacillating on who will actually finish the season with the best record in the East, and while I believe it will eventually be the Bulls, I can't help but remember how effectively Miami shut down the Chicago offense. The addition of Rip Hamilton at shooting guard is a huge coup for the Bulls, as he provides them with a number of skills they were sorely lacking last season: shooting, the ability to score without the ball in his hands at all times, playoff experience, and a veteran voice in the locker room. Expect the same suffocating defense that Tom Thibodeau employed last season - and in past years in Boston - to remain this year, and there is no reason to think that Derrick Rose is done growing as a player. In the end, I truly believe the Bulls will be playing the Heat for the right to go to the NBA Finals. Expected Win Total: 52

1. Miami: As much as I dislike the way the Miami "Big Three" came together, they showed that they meant business in their very first season together. Were it not for LeBron James' unprecedented fourth-quarter collapses in the Finals against Dallas, the Heat would be the defending champs. This year they return the same team that came within one game of winning a championship, and add grizzled-veteran (pun intended) Shane Battier to the mix. Though his play last season was not quite what we have come to expect from the former Duke-product, Battier might be the perfect fit for this team. It is quite likely that he will see extended minutes as a "stretch-four" employing his aggressive brand of defense on opposing power forwards, while drawing the opponent out of the paint and knocking down corner-three-pointers. It is also common knowledge now that LeBron James has added a post-game to his repertoire (it only took him 8 years, but better late than never) which ought to keep opposing teams guessing when Miami sets up their half-court offense. Say what you want about LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh, but they are certainly the most talented three-man combination in the league right now. Expected Win Total: 54

Final(s) Edition

Tuesday marks the beginning of the end for the 2010-2011 NBA Season. And, the team that made the most news to start off the season will be there to finish it. The much-maligned Miami Heat took a lot of, well, heat, for the manner in which they teamed up three All-Stars and celebrated on the streets of Miami before ever playing a single game together. Nevertheless, through all the ups and downs, the Miami troika will be playing longer than any team. Any team other than the Dallas Mavericks that is. With all the focus on the Miami Heat over the course of this past season, Dallas was essentially forgotten as a championship contender. The common thinking was that outside of Miami and the Lakers, the only other teams that could compete for the Larry O'Brien trophy were the Boston Celtics and the San Antonio Spurs. Not so.

Much like the Heat, the Mavericks faced a rather rocky regular season. They posted two double-digit winning streaks, and three losings streaks of three games or more. Their star, Dirk Nowitzki, was injured, and the team suffered mightily in his absence. The lost their starting small forward, Caron Butler, for the season on New Years Day (not exactly the best way to celebrate the New Year) and speedster Roddy Beaubois was lost for the playoffs months after that. Nevertheless, some savvy free agency moves - namely trading for Tyson Chandler and signing aging sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic - have kept the Mavericks moving forward. They beat the Trail Blazers when many - including this writer - predicted they would fail. They swept the defending champion Lakers in a fashion no one thought fathomable. And then, they outlasted, outsmarted, and outclassed the young Oklahoma City Thunder in a fantastic five-game series.  Through it all, the Mavericks, like the Heat, have relied on staying within themselves, playing their game, and patience.

But, while both teams have been patient, the Mavericks do not have the luxury of being patient much longer.  With the core of their team (Nowitzki, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Butler and Stojakovic) all entering the twilight of their respective careers, this series likely represents their last chance at winning that elusive ring. 

On paper two things are clear, the Miami Heat have two of the three best players in the series (Wade and James) -  and quite possibly the fourth best too (Bosh) - and the Mavericks have a much deeper bench than the Heat. Additionally, a few more things are apparent: the Heat will attempt to shred the Heat on the wings, and the Mavericks will rely heavily on their hot outside shooting to keep them rolling. What is less evident is which of the two versions of each team will show up.

The Heat, like the Mavericks, have been playing their best basketball since the playoffs began. Like the Mavericks, they have been able to withstand late rallies from formidable teams, and have been able to do what many of their doubters said they could not do all season: close games.  Like Mavericks' star Dirk Nowitzki, Heat floor general LeBron James has a lot to prove on the game's greatest stage, as he too is searching for his first championship ring.

After all the story lines are exhausted, it really boils down to the players on the hardwood, and which team is able to impose their brand of basketball. If the playoffs are any indicator, the Heat will look to keep the score in the 80s with stifling defense, while the Mavericks will look to run and shoot, hoping to generate more than 100 points. While the Heat have major advantages in Wade and James, the Mavericks have Nowitzki - who is playing the best basketball of his career - and countless other players who outmatch their opponent. With that in mind, I will examine the individual match-ups and make my prediction.

Point Guard
While Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers have made it this far, able to quiet down lead guards Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose enough to advance, they will not be able to keep up with Jason Kidd's smarts, cunning, and ability to manage a game. While the old-Bear may have lost a step on both ends of the court, he is still incredibly effective at making timely plays, hitting three pointers, and setting up his teammates. His backup, JJ Barea, could also spell trouble for the Heat, as outside of their star wing players, they lack the speed to keep up with the little man from Puerto Rico.
   Advantage: Mavericks

Shooting Guard
Dywane Wade is clearly a better player than both DeShawn Stevenson and Jason Terry and the advantage will go to the Heat. Nevertheless, Stevenson and Terry bring very specials skills to the table, and if Wade is not able to shut them down on the defensive end, the Heat will have a very short run in the finals. Terry is an expert marksman, and like Kidd, a timely shooter. Conversely, Stevenson is a lock-down defender with three-point range, and a swagger that can slow Wade down a step. The Heat have nothing off the bench behind Wade, so if he gets in to any kind of foul trouble, the Heat are toast.
   Advantage: Heat

Small Forward
LeBron James is clearly the best basketball player in basketball right now. Every minute that Peja Stojakovic plays will be a moment for LeBron to attack and head straight for the basket. Nevertheless, Shawn Marion brings a multi-dimensional set of skills to the game that could trouble LeBron, who has heretofore played against strong wing defenders (Iguodala, Pierce and Deng) but has yet to face one as rangy and savvy as Marion. Mike Miller could provide a spark off the bench for the Heat - as he did in Game 4 of the Chicago series - but in reality, anything the Heat get from him is "found money."
   Advantage: Heat

Power Forward
Chris Bosh has proven his detractors wrong this postseason with solid games against the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls. But nothing comes close to what Dirk Nowitzki has done in the second season.  He is shooting over 92% from the free throw line, and over 50% from the field and the three-point line, pouring in 28 points per game and grabbing 7.5 boards. In short, he has been perfect. Though a match-up between All-Star power forwards, this one is not even close.
   Advantage: Mavericks

Center
Joel Anthony has done a terrific job on the defensive end for the Heat, and has really helped them in their pick-and-roll defense. However, having any other one of their centers on the court - Ilgauskus, Dampier or Magliore - just kills them, on both ends. Conversely, the aforementioned Tyson Chandler is having a career year, is inspiring his teammates to play better, and is protecting the paint with such fervor that is seems certain that Mark Cuban will overpay him this season. Behind Chandler, the Mavericks have Brendan Haywood, who, though not a starting-caliber player, is a tenacious defender, and another big body that can protect the rim from the forays to the basket by Wade and James.
    Advantage: Mavericks

Bench
I already touched on this, but just to reiterate, the Miami Heat second unit is comprised of: Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, James Jones, Udonis Haslem and Erick Dampier. The Mavericks trot out: JJ Barea, Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Corey Brewer and Brendan Haywood. I am going to stick with Dallas on this one.
    Advantage: Mavericks


X-Factor
For the Mavericks, it's Shawn Marion. No one expects him to stop LeBron James, but if he can make it difficult for him to score and can provide some scoring of his own, he will have done his job admirably. For the Heat, it's Udonis Haslem. After a gutsy series against the Bulls, it remains to be seen what more he can do, and what he can provide, for the Miami Heat.
    Advantage: Mavericks


Prediction
The pundits - and certainly those who get paid to do what I do for free - are picking the Heat. Miami's overwhelming advantage in terms of athleticism seems to be what most experts are keying in on. Nevertheless, I think this is Dallas' year. They already beat the defending champs in an embarrassing sweep, and I just sense that Dirk wants this more than anything else out there.  As such, I am picking the Mavericks to win the NBA Finals.
     Pick: Mavericks in 6

What Can Brown Do For You?

Today's news that the Los Angeles Lakers hired former Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown to succeed Phil Jackson came as a surprise to some.  But for those of us that follow the game and understand the needs of the various teams in the Association, the Lakers could not have found a more appropriate replacement for the Zen Master. While Phil Jackson is undoubtedly the greatest coach in professional basketball - if not professional sports - he was understandably tired of coaching, and given the Lakers' collapse down the stretch in the playoffs, he was being tuned out by his players. As such, the hope seems to be that Mike Brown can infuse the veteran Lakers with new energy.


It is no secret that what Mike Brown does well is defense. Over five seasons in Cleveland, Brown won 272 games and lost 138, and much of this was due to the fact that the Cavaliers were consistently in the top-7 in defensive efficiency. He helped develop LeBron James from a rather poor defender in to one of the premier wing stoppers in the NBA.  Additionally, he made lemonade out of lemons. Aside from James, one can argue that Brown's second best player over the five years in Cleveland was Mo Williams or Anderson Varejao.

With that in mind, it is certainly going to be interesting to see how he fares at the helm of a Lakers roster that boasts four bona fide studs (Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Bynum) who can either create their own offense or finish strong inside.  I expect to see him maximize their defensive abilities - particularly pushing Gasol to "get at it" on that end - and help them shore up the weaknesses that were exposed against the New Orleans Hornets and even more so against the Dallas Mavericks.  Specifically, look for Brown to change up the defensive schemes that Jackson had put in place. Under Jackson the Lakers were fantastic at defending the 3-point line - at least in the regular season - and terrible at defending against long two-pointers and the pick-and-roll.

The big knock on Brown has always been that he does not seem to have much of a knack for coaching on the offensive end. Nevertheless, his teams in Cleveland the past few years were actually marginally more efficient on the offensive end than those teams in Los Angeles (never mind the fact that he did not end the season sporting gaudy jewelery as the Lakers did.) Still, offense is something that a strong assistant can bring to the table. Defense is a state of mind, and the backbone behind a team remodel. We saw that in 2008 when Kevin Garnett teamed up with the Celtics and bought in to the Tom Thibodeau defensive scheme, and this year we have seen it both in Chicago under now head coach Thibodeau and in Miami under Erik Spoelstra. 

At the end of the day, the Lakers got the best coach out there. There were some unproven coaches (Brian Shaw and Chuck Person to name a few) who might have made sense from a continuity perspective. And then there were some veteran managers (Larry Brown and Rick Adelman) who likely would have been more about signing a big name rather than signing the right name. The Lakers landed a young coach (Brown is 41) and a proven coach (he was the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year and led the Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals). But most importantly, the Lakers snared a coach who is successful enough to not be overwhelmed by the man he is replacing, and humble enough to understand his place in it all.

Playoffs???

It has been a while since I posted anything, and I completely dropped the ball on my initial playoff predictions. Thankfully, every team I thought would advance did, with the exception of the Orlando Magic, who really pissed the bed against the Atlanta Hawks (and yes, I did think the Memphis Grizzlies would upset the San Antonio Spurs!) With that said, I am only making my picks for the Conference Semifinals, as it would be foolhardy to pick the ensuing rounds, particularly given some of the upsets that have occurred to this point.

Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Bulls in 5 
Had Kirk Hinrich been ready to go for this series, I truly believe the Hawks could have pushed the Bulls to six or seven games. Without him, the Hawks simply do not have the defensive personnel to contain Derrick Rose, and that is the key to this series. The Hawks big men (Josh Smith, Al Horford, and their pu-pu platter of centers) should be able to get theirs against the Bulls (particularly if they go at Boozer, who has looked very soft of late) but the Hawks will likely shoot their way out of many games, just as they shot their way in to many games in the previous round.  I expect the Bulls to win a few of these games in dramatic fashion, and the others will likely be blowouts.

Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics
Pick: Celtics in 7 
I am bucking what has become the common line of thinking recently in picking the Boston Celtics. Sure, they have looked pretty pedestrian since trading Kendrick Perkins. Yes, the big-three are all beginning to show their age. And yes, Rondo is a liability on offense in the half court. Having said that, their is something about the Boston defense that really messes with the Miami players. Wade shot under 30% against the Celtics this season, LeBron's isolation-offense plays right in to the hands of the Celtics' strong-side defensive schemes, and Bosh should be neutralized by KG's aggressive - and often times offensive - brand of defense and heckling. In the end, Rondo is the key to this series. If he is able to get the Celtics running, and make their offense move more in the open court than in the half court, the Celtics should be able to win this series. Additionally, if he can put some of those gaudy stat-lines we had grown accustomed to from him, he should be able to do just enough to get Boston back to the Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Thunder in 7 
First and foremost, I think we can all agree that the Memphis Grizzlies are far and away the "crunkest" team to ever make it this far in the NBA Playoffs. They play with a swagger and a chip on their shoulder unseen in the NBA for a long time. Their defensive intensity (they led the league in steals per game this season) allows them to foil some of the best offensive schemes, and their strength inside - anchored by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol - is unparalleled outside of Los Angeles. The Grizz should have the ability to put lock down defenders on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant with Tony Allen and Shane Battier respectively drawing the assignments. Nevertheless, unless one of the teams is incredibly cohesive - a la the Boston Celtics - it is always safe to take the team with the best player to win the series. Kevin Durant is the best player in this series and he should be able to get his and the other Thunder players should be able to do enough to get them one step closer to a possible rematch of last year's first round series with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Los Angeles Lakers v. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Lakers in 6 
I am always weary of the Lakers falling asleep and taking their foot off the gas, but I just don't see the Mavericks being able to beat LA four times. The point guard match-up is not that much of an advantage for the Mavericks, as Jason Kidd as regressed enough that the Lakers can match up with Derek Fisher. Kobe is likely going to obliterate whomever defends him (DeShawn Stevenson, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, whomever). Ron Artest should be able to pester Marion and at times Nowitzki enough that his minutes are worthwhile, and the Lakers will likely own the paint with their twin towers. A lot will come down to who plays better off the bench, Lamar Odom, or Jason Terry. Terry is a gamer, and has always hit timely shots for the Mavericks, but Odom is the more versatile player, and the better defender and rebounder, and at this stage in the season, championships are won with defense and rebounding. I think the Lakers will be thrown off at times by the Mavericks' use of the zone, but they should prevail after a hiccup or two and be able to return to the Conference Finals for the fourth consecutive season.

Regular Season Awards

With roughly ten games to go in the 2010-2011 NBA Season, it is about time to start handing out some awards. So, without further adieu, I present to you my picks for MVP, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year, and my First, Second and Third Team All-NBA as Well as First Team All-Defense...

MVP
Derrick Rose.  There is certainly a case to be made for LeBron James (arguably the best player in the NBA right now) and Dwight Howard (without whom the Orlando Magic would be a lottery-bound franchise), but my vote goes to Rose. Aside from posting some gaudy stats (24.8 ppg., 7.8 apg., 4.2 rpg.) he has also guided his team to the best record in the top-heavy Eastern Conference and helped the Bulls weather the storm through long-term injury issues to their big man duo of Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer. Without Rose, the Bulls would be a 38-win team. With him, they are tops in the Eastern Conference, poised to make a deep run in the playoffs, and well positioned for the next decade.

Coach of the Year
Doug Collins.  Right now Tom Thibodeau is the trendy pick. After all, his Chicago Bulls currently sport the second best record in the NBA. Additionally, the Bulls have shown a commitment to defense last seen by the 2007-2008 Boston Celtics championship team. However, Collins gets the nod from me. After a brutal start to the season, Collins made the necessary adjustments to set the 76ers up for success, this season and in the future. He has gotten the most out of limited role players like Jodie Meeks, has made a star out of second-year guard Jrue Holiday, and has revitalized the woebegone careers of both Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand. His club is probably the most dangerous lower-seeded playoff team this year, and I believe they have the potential to be a 50-win franchise next season.

Sixth Man of the Year
Lamar Odom. I really see this as a two man race between Jason Terry and Lamar Odom. Many detractors will argue that Odom is not really the sixth man for the Los Angeles Lakers because he has started so many games for them this season. True. But, much like Terry, he also finishes them. Los Angeles is at their best when they start Bynum and bring Odom off the bench. Additionally, Odom has improved nearly every facet of his game this season, combining his brilliant passing skills with a now-deadly jump shot. His defense is top notch, he brings a swagger the Lakers' desperately need, and he has been one of the linchpins of the NBA's hottest team right now.

Most Improved Player
LaMarcus Aldridge. Kudos to Kevin Love for breaking Moses Malone's record double-double streak, but this award belongs to Aldridge. Asked to play out of position all season, Aldridge has become one of the league's best centers. Yes, you read that right, Aldridge is now a center. He combines terrific post moves with a killer jump shot, and has carried the Blazers on his back ever since injuries ravaged their season earlier this year.

Defensive Player of the Year
Dwight Howard. Aside from his blocks and rebounds, Dwight Howard changes so many shots that much of what he does on the defensive end of the court cannot be quantified. What I find most impressive about Howard's defensive impact is that he brings it every night. The guy might not be an offensive prodigy (yet) but he always brings the intensity on defense.

First Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Derrick Rose
Shooting Guard: Kobe Bryant
Small Forward: LeBron James
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki
Center: Dwight Howard

Second Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Chris Paul
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade
Small Forward: Kevin Durant
Power Forward: Amare Stoudemire
Center: Pau Gasol

Third Team All-NBA
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward:Paul Pierce
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: LaMarcus Aldridge

First Team All-Defense
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili
Small Forward: Tony Allen
Power Forward: Kevin Garnett
Center: Dwight Howard

Contracting the NBA

For years now we have heard calls that the NBA should be contracted.  Many clamor that there are too many teams, that the talent pool is too widely dispersed, and that the league has teams in remote outposts that cannot support a professional sports franchise.  Lately, we have heard people within NBA circles make such statements.  Earlier this season, LeBron James posted a comment on his twitter feed suggesting that the NBA should contract.  So, the question remains, is this a good idea, and if so, what would the NBA look like?

Those pushing for contraction tend to rest their argument on the aforementioned premise that talent is too widely dispersed in the NBA.  I would counter that this is simply not the case, as, with the influx of recent talent from the past five drafts, the Association is experiencing a renaissance of sorts.  In fact, it is hard to think of many NBA teams that do not have a "franchise" guy.  Additionally, the notion that there are too many NBA teams is a bit outdated.  Our country has grown exponentially since the NBA was first established 60 years ago. During that time there have also been massive populations shifts in terms of where people reside in this country (now more than ever people live in cities, and we have seen population booms in the South and throughout the Western United States for 20 years now.) Perhaps the strongest argument for contracting the number of teams is two-fold; certain cities cannot support a team, and parity is a good thing.

Beginning with the first part of that argument, it is true, there are certain cities that simply cannot support a team. I harped on this in my last post, but New Orleans, and Charlotte, are two cities that seemingly cannot deal with having more than one professional sports franchise.  The Jazz failed in New Orleans, and have flourished in Salt Lake City. The Hornets languished in Charlotte, and are now experiencing the same sort of fate in New Orleans, while the Bobcats have fared quite poorly in Charlotte since their inception.  The argument then must be carried through to its logical progression; because certain cities have failed to support a team, they should not be considered as locations for relocation of existing franchises.  While I think that certain cities should be considered off limits for NBA franchises in the near future, it is hard to say that cities like Kansas City or St. Louis, both of which previously had an NBA team, should be prohibited from bringing a team like the Hornets or Kings to town, just because franchises failed there years ago.   The Kansas City Kings and the St. Louis Hawks were moved long ago. Since that time, both cities have established themselves as cities capable of supporting multiple franchises.  Additionally, both cities have terrific collegiate and prep-level basketball prospects which indicates a passion for the sport therein.  So then, why not just relocate teams rather than taking draconian measure and eliminating them altogether?

As for the second part of that argument: parity is a good thing.  To conclude that having 30 teams of equal ability is a good thing for professional basketball is fallacy.  The NFL has become a "more even" league over the past ten years, and yet certain teams (namely the Patriots, Steelers and Colts) have all continued to dominate. While talent has been dispersed across the league like never before, I am not sure I can agree that it has been better for the NFL.  As a San Francisco 49ers fan, I would argue that the past ten years have been terrible. For starters, my team has been horrible (to the point that I did not watch a single NFL game other than the Super Bowl between 2003 and 2007.)  Beyond that though the teams I grew up watching, at least those that were continually successful (Green Bay, Dallas, Miami, etc...) have had up-and-down years, and as a casual fan of the NFL, my interest has wavered. In short, it is hard to follow a sport casually when the landscape is changing year-to-year.  Those sports fans who exist on the fringe like regularity, they like to know who to follow. Not every fan of the NFL, or the NBA for that matter, is a die-hard nut like yours-truly, most are sane individuals who recognize that it is just a sport.

As an addendum to the second part of that argument, I think it is also shortsighted to say that fewer teams will create parity, when it fact it seems to be strong management that keeps teams successful in an otherwise even league (as the success of New England, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis would suggest.)

Even if contraction were under consideration, the next logical question would be who to contract.  Looking at attendance numbers and overall record, using the past ten years as a sample, I think the teams most likely to be put on the "chopping block," would be the New Orleans Hornets, the Charlotte Bobcats, the Memphis Grizzlies and the Sacramento Kings.  While the Los Angeles Clippers would certainly make any one's short list of franchises that need to go, they continually make money, they have a bright future with their young core of players, and they play in a market that has shown itself capable of supporting two NBA teams. 

After contraction, there would be a dispersal draft, wherein the players from those four teams would be drafted by the remaining 26 teams.  The remaining teams would likely select those players in inverse order of how they finished that season.  In reality, it would be more fair to use their aggregate winning percentage over the previous five to ten seasons to determine the order, but nevertheless, that's small potatoes.  The draft would probably go something like this: Cleveland (Chris Paul), Minnesota (Rudy Gay), Washington (David West), Toronto (Zach Randolph), Clippers (Tyreke Evans), New Jersey (DeMarcus Cousins), Golden State (Marc Gasol), Detroit (Emeka Okafor), Houston (Mike Conley), Milwaukee (OJ Mayo), Utah (Stephen Jackson), Phoenix (Tyrus Thomas), Indiana (Carl Landry), Philadelphia (Shane Battier), New York (DJ Augustin), Portland (Samuel Dalembert), Denver (Tony Allen), Atlanta (Gerald Henderson), Oklahoma City (Jason Thompson), Orlando (Darrell Arthur), Lakers (Trevor Ariza), Chicago (Marcus Thornton), Miami (Xavier Henry), Dallas (Sam Young), Boston (Omri Casspi), San Antonio (Donte Green). Now certainly, this could vary, I am just basing this on the talent available, and then considering the needs of every team. 


The 26 teams that got at least one new player would undoubtedly be aided by that player's presence. But, the addition of one player might not help that many teams (even with Chris Paul, would the Cavaliers be any good?) The idea is that adding these players, particularly the stronger players to rather moribund franchises (cough, Minnesota, cough) would speed up the rebuilding process in those cities.  Nevertheless, gerrymandering the league's talent to compensate for poor management decisions is not the way to make a team better. 

In the end, the strongest case for contraction, at least the only one I can make without lying to myself, is that some cities just cannot support a team.  If that remains the case in towns like New Orleans, Memphis, Sacramento, and Charlotte, then yes, the league should consider either gutting those teams and selling off the parts, or perhaps think more prudently and relocate those franchises to cities that are dying to have the hardwood heroes in their town.  

The NBA is America

In case you didn't read about it earlier in the week, the New Orleans Hornets traded second year guard Marcus Thornton and cash to the Sacramento Kings for forward Carl Landry. While the trade might have ramifications on the hardwood - Landry is a tough banger down low, and is the exact type of player that will maximize his potential playing with a visionary point guard like Chris Paul - the effects off the court carry far greater weight. 

In my opinion, Mark Cuban was right to blast the deal this week, when he stated that it was ludicrous that a team that is currently owned by the other 29 NBA owners was allowed to take on payroll.  While the bottom line for Cuban might be relatively small (we are talking about less than $100,000 for a guy who probably tips that much at a steak house) the ramifications of this deal are very telling about the mindset of the NBA. 

To put it bluntly, the New Orleans Hornets are a failed franchise. Technically, this is the second time they have failed, as they left Charlotte with their tail between their legs (and if you really want to know what I think about some of these franchises, just ask me about the Charlotte Bobcats.) New Orleans is a city that does not have a lot of people with the disposable income necessary to support an NBA franchise. Their attendance is worse than the Seattle Supersonics experienced prior to their team being hijacked to Oklahoma City, yet the Hornets are allowed to exist in receivership. In my opinion, the only reason the Hornets still exist is because the NBA - read: David Stern - is terrified of the backlash of leaving a city that continues to get pounded by disasters, natural and man-made. 

What we have here is a form of socialism. And, frankly, this is nothing new for the NBA, or America. When the economy went in to the tank a few years back, our government decided to bail out the banks and the auto industry, and to essentially take over many of these corporations as the majority shareholder.  When George Shinn could not find a buyer for the Hornets last fall, the NBA owners approved David Stern's idea to take control of the franchise.  Since then, owners like Mark Cuban have held a 1/29th share of the franchise. 

And, while this week's decision by the Hornets to take on salary - thereby incurring further costs that others will have to pay - was offensive to those of us who believe that a business should succeed and fail on its own, this was far less abhorrent than what our government allowed. When the U.S. Government essentially took over Wall Street, they should have made it clear to those who got us in this mess (by which I mean the executives who prospered off of their own bad decisions) that the "fat times" were over and that they would no longer stand for the type of bonuses that these businessmen were paying themselves. 

Of course what followed was exactly what those of us right-minded individuals feared the most.  The banks went right back to business as usual. In 2010, executives at the Wall Street's biggest banks made more money than ever before. And the middle class continues to take it on the chin. All because our government failed to stand up for the other 29 owners of these banks, the American people.

While I agree with Mark Cuban - and to a greater extent Lakers coach Phil Jackson, who questioned how the Hornets are going to make personnel decisions moving forward - I cannot sympathize with them that much, as this is really no different than the example set by our very own government.  The difference however is that while Mark Cuban complains about pocket change for him, the American people continue to get dumped on, by large companies and our own government.  

Trades That Make Sense (or at least I think so...)

One of my favorite things to do with my friends back home is gather around my buddy Jordan's coffee table, break out the yellow legal pad and play NBA General Manager for an evening. This act of fantasy - and certainly delusion - allows me to write up various trade proposals, many of which my buddies will claim are a mere pipe dream, some of which actually make sense. With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, I felt that this would be the best time to share some trades that do make sense, at least from my point of view.


The object of these trades vary for the teams involved. Some are meant to cut payroll, others are meant to acquire assets, whereas a few are intended to push a team over the top and provide them with that "piece" they have been looking for.  While likely none of these trades will be executed in the real NBA, I believe that all of the forthcoming deals make sense for the franchises - and players - involved. For each transaction I will also provide my reasoning as to why the trade makes sense for all parties involved. 


The First Domino: Carmelo Anthony

New York Knicks Acquire: Carmelo Anthony from the Denver Nuggets and $4 million trade exception from the Orlando Magic


Orlando Magic Acquire: Ronny Turiaf (NYK)


Minnesota Timberwolves Acquire: Anthony Randolph


Denver Nuggets Acquire: Eddy Curry (NYK), Wilson Chandler (NYK), Daniel Orton (ORL), 2011 1st Round Pick (MIN via MEM), 2013 1st Round Pick (NYK)

By now everyone knows that the biggest trade target this season is Carmelo Anthony, likewise, everyone knows that the Knicks are the most likely suitor.  All the scuttlebutt about Carmelo going to the Lakers is just a bunch of media hype. There is no way that the Lakers will trade away their greatest strength (the ability to line up two 7-footers) for another volume scorer.  Nevertheless, the Knicks offerings to this point have been anything but strong.

However, via this transaction, the Nuggets accomplish a few things. First they get a large expiring contract in Eddy Curry. They also acquire a strong asset in Wilson Chandler, a player who can replicate a lot of Carmelo's numbers, and a guy who really brings it on the defensive end. They land a high draft pick in this year's lottery (via Minnesota) and New York's 1st round pick two years from now. Finally, they get a backup big man, who may or may not develop.  Not a bad haul if you ask me. Additionally, this deal allows them to complete the makeover by finding a suitor for Chauncey Billups and getting way under the salary cap for this season and the next.
 
The Knicks obviously do well in this trade, as they get one of the top scorers in the NBA and a $4 million trade exception for a back-up center (Turiaf), their starting power forward (Chandler), a first round pick, and an overweight center who hasn't played in three years (Curry). 


The Timberwolves land an asset in Randolph for a first round pick this year, a selection they were likely going to botch anyway.


The Magic are the "sneaky" team in this deal. They really need a player who can back up Dwight for 12-16 minutes a night, play tough defense, and finish around the rim. They also don't have many assets to give up. Enter, Ronny Turiaf. He has playoff experience from his days in Los Angeles, he is tough-as-nails, he can block shots, and he doesn't mind committing hard fouls. I think the Magic would gladly welcome him on their second unit. 



The Upgrade in Big D: Danny Granger

Dallas Mavericks Acquire: Danny Granger and James Posey (IND) alone with a $1.5 million trade exception


Indiana Pacers Acquire: Caron Butler, Roddy Beaubois, DeShawn Stevenson (DAL) and 2012 1st Round Pick


This might be more of a pipe dream for Dallas, as opposed to a trade that could actually be executed in the real world. The Pacers are really going nowhere with Granger, and he - along with James Posey weighty contract - is the only financial obligation that the Pacers have moving forward. By acquiring Butler and Stevenson (both expiring this summer) the Pacers can move so far under the cap that they will only owe $16 million for the 2011-2012 season. By landing Beaubois, the Pacers finally land a guard who can score in buckets. With a core of Hibbert-Collison-Beaubois, their 2011 1st Round Pick, and roughly $40 million to spend, the Pacers could rebuild quite quickly. An offer of 5 years and $55 million for Nene (likely to leave Denver this summer) and 5 years and $42 million for Jeff Green (I doubt OKC would match that), would really fill out their front court, and would support Roy Hibbert moving forward. They would still have about $20 million to spend on other spots on the roster, and they would finally have some semblance of a true "team" for their future.

For Dallas, this gives them a legitimate shot at winning the NBA Championship this year, and helps them in the future too. Granger can play shooting guard, or small forward, and with Posey as a defensive stopper on the wing, a crunch time lineup of Kidd-Granger-Posey-Nowitzki-Chandler is suddenly quite formidable on the defensive end. Move Granger up front and Terry in to the starting lineup, and suddenly you have three great shooters flanking a creative point guard and a suddenly-dominant inside presence (Chandler.)





Moving Monta:

Atlanta Hawks Acquire: Monta Ellis (GSW)


Golden State Warriors Acquire: Josh Smith (ATL)

I don't know which team balks first at this trade. For the Warriors, this trade signals that they are moving forward with Stephen Curry as their franchise guy. The whole Curry-Ellis back court is simply too small and too defensively challenged to play together. Enter Josh Smith. By inserting Smith in to the starting lineup and moving Dorell Wright to shooting guard, the Warriors become a vastly superior defensive team to the one they have right now. Wright is a great on-the-ball defender and Biedrins - when healthy - is quite adept at protecting the paint. Smith is an all-world defender who blocks shots, clears the glass and moves the ball up the court. His defensive chops would pair well with David Lee's back to the basket game and defensive shortcomings. 

For the Hawks, this trade injects them with some badly needed youth scoring. Pair Monta with Joe Johnson - whose natural tendencies as a bigger "set up man" play quite well with a scoring point guard - and you have a monstrous back court to go with one of the best young centers in the league (Horford.) This also allows the Hawks to develop a bench around Bibby, Teague and Crawford, and even opens the door to move a player such as Crawford to a team that needs a scorer. I think this works for Atlanta, but I am often wrong.


Better Now than Later:

Utah Jazz Acquire: Eric Bledsoe (LAC), Boris Diaw (CHA), Will Bynum (DET) and Minnesota's 2012 lottery-unprotected 1st Round Pick (LAC via MIN)



Los Angeles Clippers Acquire: Deron Williams (UTA), Rip Hamilton (DET), Sherron Collins (CHA)



Charlotte Bobcats Acquire: Baron Davis (LAC), 2011 2nd Round Pick (LAC), 2011 2nd Round Pick (UTA)



Detroit Pistons Acquire: Chris Kaman (LAC) and Dominic McGuire (CHA)

If we have learned anything from the Summer of 2010, it's that it is far better to trade a franchise player early, and get something in return, than it is to lose him for nothing in free agency.  With all the recent news out of Utah, it appears the writing is on the wall, Deron Williams will either leave in free agency in 2012, or will demand a trade before then. So, if you are Utah, why not trade him now, get some assets and start to rebuild.

Herein, I think the Jazz actually get a decent deal for Deron. They pick up Eric Bledsoe, who, as a rookie, has already shown himself fully capable of running the point; Will Bynum, who, as a small scoring guard off the bench injects some needed life in to the Jazz; Boris Diaw, who has a large ($9 million) expiring contract; and a 2012 1st round pick (originally from Minnesota) which could very well be the top pick. The Jazz are a well run organization, and with Bledsoe, Jefferson and Millsap as their core, bench pieces like Bynum, Gordon Hayward, Mehmet Okur and C.J. Miles, and roughly $20 million in cap room this summer (Kirilenko's contract will be over) they could position themselves well for the future so long as they get a true "paint-protecting" center and a scoring guard with range.

The Clippers do this deal for the obvious reason: Deron Williams is a major upgrade over Baron Davis, he is younger, and they now have the best young core in the NBA. A starting five of Williams, Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, with Rip Hamilton, Randy Foye and Craig Smith coming off the bench is a formidable 8-man roster. They will also have about $6-8 million to spend in free agency this summer, and could easily land another piece to add to their arsenal. If they could land D-Will, they would be a scary good team.

Detroit does this deal because they get something in return for Rip Hamilton - a player they have completely marginalized since they hired Coach Kuester - and bring in a home town guy (Chris Kaman is from Michigan). Additionally, bringing in a true low post player allows them to move Greg Monroe - who has looked terrific of late - back to his natural position (power forward). The Pistons can finally trot out a lineup that makes sense: Stuckey, Gordon, Daye, Monroe, Kaman; with Charlie V., Maxiell and Jerekbo coming off the bench. That is a huge upgrade over playing five small forwards, right?

At first glance, this trade doesn't make sense for the Bobcats. I mean, after all, why would they want to take on all that money for Baron Davis? Well, let's remember what happens when Baron Davis is motivated... he plays well. Pair him with Captain Jack - his old running mate from Golden State - and Gerald Wallace, and you suddenly have an excellent perimeter troika.  Once Tyrus Thomas is healthy, along with Nazr Mohammed, that is a decent starting five (and a terrific defensive group.) This also allows D.J. Augustin to get more time to season his game. I could absolutely see a reckless owner like MJ take a chance on a rejuvenated Baron Davis. I just hope he is reading this (update: he is not.)

Cleaning up Cleveland:


Cleveland Cavaliers Acquire: Marcus Banks (NOH), David Anderson (NOH), Willie Green (NOH), Aaron Gray (NOH), Aaron Brooks (HOU), and Jared Jeffries (HOU)


Portland Trail Blazers Acquire: Mo Williams (CLE)


New Orleans Hornets Acquire: Antawn Jamison and $4.8 million trade exception (CLE)



Houston Rockets Acquire: Luke Babbitt, Joel Przybilla (POR) and $8.9 million trade exception (CLE)


The Portland Trail Blazers do this deal because they give up an oft-injured backup center and a rookie who has yet to see any playing time for a former all star guard who can light it up from outside. From my perspective this deal is a no-brainer for them. Given how frail Brandon Roy is, adding Williams to a back court of Wes Matthews, Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez, provides Portland with options for a post-Roy future. They also don't have to surrender any core pieces such as Batum or Aldridge (in addition to the aforementioned Wes Matthews) and they can run a terrific small ball five of Miller, Williams, Matthews, Batum and Aldridge. If I am Portland, Mo Williams is the player I have on my radar.


From the Hornets perspective, adding Jamison provides them with two things. First, it gives you a "stretch four" who can keep defenses honest when CP3 penetrates and adds quality depth to an otherwise depleted front court. Second, it gives them a player who can start at power forward should David West decide to walk this summer. Furthermore, the Hornets get a $4.8 million trade exception that they can then use to acquire another scoring guard. I would also expect that if they sent this many players to Cleveland that one or more of them (likely Willie Green and David Anderson) would be immediately bought out, sit out the requisite 30 days, and rejoin the Hornets. 


The Rockets are making a sneaky move here. They are sending out perhaps the player with the most upside in the entire deal in Aaron Brooks, but they are landing a center who protects the basket, rebounds and doesn't need the ball on offense, and a young asset in Babbitt.  Przybilla is a great player to pair with Scola - who is more focused on the offensive end - and his contract expires this summer. I would fully expect the Rockets to re-sign him to a friendly contract and develop Jordan Hill and Patrick Patterson behind their starting power players. Babbitt seems like a Chase Budinger type and he has already paid some dividends for Houston. Finally, the Rockets are nabbing an $8.9 million trade exception. Darrel Morey is such a savvy GM that I can see him making a move like this, and this transaction would position them perfectly to make another move in the future.


At this point, the Cavaliers are a sad franchise, but things don't have to be that way forever. If they can unload the heavy contracts owed to Jamison and Williams, get some expiring deals, and perhaps an asset like Aaron Brooks, then they can look to rebuild through the next few drafts. The only thing worse than losing 26 straight games, is doing so with a roster that is going to remain the same for the next two years. Cleveland needs to change the culture of their locker room, and the best way to do that is to refurbish their roster.


In the end, what I think we will see this trade season is a couple small deadline deals - using trade exceptions and expiring deals - and fewer blockbuster deals than we have grown accustomed to seeing. The trades listed above are just deals I think make sense for the teams involved, I do not expect any of them to come to fruition.

Halfway Home: Midterm Rankings

We are roughly half way through the NBA regular season, and the first 41 games of the season has allowed us to separate the wheat from the chaff.  With that in mind, I have decided to offer up my first edition of the NBA Power Rankings, beginning with the worst teams, and finishing with those teams that have looked the best thus far.  Given that Bill Simmons is my favorite basketball writer, I thought I might offer up an homage in the divisions I assign these various teams to.  So, without further adieu, I present to you, the rankings...

The P.J. Carlesimo Divsion

These teams are all either falling apart, or have already exploded monumentally.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers: Everyone expected the Cavaliers to be hurting after LeBron "took his talents to South Beach," but I cannot imagine anyone thought they would be this horrid.  Losers of 14 straight, and 23 out of their last 24, the Cavaliers post a -11.3 scoring margin, nearly five points worse than the next-to-last team.  They have little talent on their team, no young prizes to develop, and they are saddled by long-term contracts that will haunt them for the next two to three seasons. At least Cleveland has this going for them: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmLA5TqbIY

29. Sacramento Kings: I liked Tyreke Evans a lot more as a rookie than I do now, though I understand that he has been playing at about 75% for the past month.  DeMarcus Cousins is starting to come on strong, and, if he can keep his attitude in check (this has been a knock on him since he was in high school) he should develop in to a pretty strong low-post player.  Having said that, the Kings are a team in flux, both as a franchise - with rumors swirling that they might leave Sacramento - and a team - they have yet to develop any identity.  I imagine they will be an active team around the February trade deadline, as they have a number of expiring contracts (Dalembert and Landry) and interesting pieces (Casspi) that other teams might be interested in.

28. Washington Wizards: John Wall hit the proverbial rookie wall a few weeks ago after coming back from a prolonged injury.  Now that Blake Griffin is tearing the league apart, the best thing Wall can do is focus on becoming a true triple-threat and not worry about the rookie of the year race.  Like the Kings, the Wizards are a team in flux, but unlike the Kings, the Wizards have a coach (Flip Saunders) who has shown himself to be capable of developing young talent, and building a winner.

27. Toronto Raptors: Another team that has experienced the burn of a an all-star leaving town and getting nothing in the way of compensation, the Raptors - unlike the Cavaliers - are at least showing some pride; even if they are ceding nearly 105 points per game. Thankfully, the Raptors, like the rest of the teams in this division, get very little play on television, which is a godsend for NBA fans everywhere.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves: Like most serious NBA fans, I am amazed at Kevin Love's ability to continually pull down double-digit boards and make rebounding cool.  What few people realize though is that Love is averaging over 21 points per game, shooting 47% from the field, 87% from the line, and 44% from 3-Point range.  Love's 15.6 rebounds per game is the highest per game average since Dennis Rodman in the late 1990s with the Chicago Bulls.  The Timberwolves are incredibly lucky to have a player of his caliber on their roster.  Unfortunately, that is where the T-Wolves luck begins and ends.

25. Detroit Pistons: Perhaps the most "blah" team in the Association, the Pistons have few wins to show for a roster that runs them around $66 million this season.  Their only young talent is rookie Greg Monroe, and he is only getting around 22 minutes of burn every night.  Thankfully, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva are under contract for another three years and $60 million.  Joe Dumars, where Amazing Happens!!!


The Mo Cheeks Division 

These squads are neither in rebuilding mode, nor good enough to make waves in the post-season.  They are stuck in that all-too-common position that Mo Cheeks' teams continually found themselves; the middle.

24. New Jersey Nets: The only interesting thing about the New Jersey Nets this season has been the constant drama centering on whether or not they will pull the trigger and trade for Carmelo Anthony.  As of now, the deal is off (according to their owner) and the team seems set on building on what they have.  While rookie Derrick Favors appears to be a diamond in the rough, third year center Brook Lopez has taken a big step back from his breakout second season.  The Nets spent a decent amount of money in the off-season on middling talent like Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar and Johan Petro.  Avery Johnson is a good coach, but he appears to have rubbed some more of his players the wrong way (see: Murphy, Troy) and I wonder whether this team will ever get going again.

23. Golden State Warriors: Many of my friends in the Bay Area insist that the Warriors are a year away from being a playoff team.  I have been hearing that for years, and for years the Warriors have been letting their fans down.  Steph Curry, David Lee and Monta Ellis are a nice core to build around, but without bona fide defenders surrounding them, they will be destined to finish towards the bottom of the league in every defensive category.

22. Phoenix Suns: I feel bad for Steve Nash. The scrappy Canadian is a sure fire first-ballot hall of famer, and he is wasting his final years on a Suns team that is going nowhere. I blame Robert Sarver for all of this. Due to his penny-pinching ways, the Suns have missed out on so many talented players that it is just not fair to Phoenix fans to list them here.  I hope, for Nash' sake, that he is traded to a contender (Atlanta makes sense: Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford for Nash and a portion of the trade exception created from the Amare Stoudemire departure works under the salary cap) and does not have to play out the end of his career on a team that does not allow him to showcase his amazing "court vision" to its fullest.

21. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin.  He is the best rookie in years, and is the perfect cornerstone around which a team can build.  Eric Gordon has shown himself to be a great two-guard (if a bit undersized), DeAndre Jordan was a draft day steal, Baron Davis has shown signs of life, and they have valuable trade chips in Chris Kaman and rookie Al-Farouq Aminu.  Somehow, someway, Donald Sterling will find a way to screw this up.  It's sad.

20. Philadelphia 76ers:  I will never forgive Doug Collins for dyeing his hair blond during the 2007 NBA Playoffs when he was announcing games for TNT.  That being said, he has done a great job thus far this season in helping to instill a winning attitude in the 76ers franchise.  While he team may have whiffed on rookie Evan Turner, they have a stud in second-year guard Jrue Holiday, and they can certainly fetch something of value- even if it is just salary cap relief - in a trade for Andre Iguodala.  Given the way they ended the season last year, and the malaise the franchise has been mired in for the past four to five seasons, things are looking up for Philly, even if they are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs.

19. Milwaukee Bucks: This team has been dealing with injuries for what seems like 18 months, but without Brandon Jennings in the lineup Milwaukee has really taken a dip. Unless they can muster up a decent winning streak during the second half of the season, nobody will be "fearing the deer" come April.  On second thought, what am I saying? The Bucks are a half game out of the playoffs in the East, and something tells me that either the Bobcats or the Pacers are going to blow it big over the next few months.  Put it down now, the Bucks will make the postseason. 

The Paul Silas Division:
Teams on the bubble of making the playoffs, they have zero chance of advancing, and it is unclear where these franchises are heading.

18. Charlotte Bobcats: Larry Brown once again left a team at their lowest moment, and no one should be surprised by his recent comments suggesting he is interested in coaching again. Paul Silas has done an admirable job helping to turn the team around for the time being, but this franchise is really going nowhere.  They lost Raymond Felton to New York this past summer in free agency, and now that D.J. Augustin has been given the reigns Charlotte's offense has staggered even more.  They have no front court, their best players are either unhappy (Stephen Jackson) or constantly injured (Gerald Wallace) and their front office - led by His Airness - is a complete mess.  While they might sneak in to the playoffs, given the decrepit teams at the bottom of the East standings, the franchise has little going for it moving forward. 

17. Indiana Pacers: For the first six weeks of the season, the Indiana Pacers looked they had finally figured things out. Roy Hibbert was a beast inside, Darren Collison was playing like a top-flight point guard, and the Pacers were winning against good teams.  Since then, Hibbert and Collison have hit a wall, Danny Granger has been the most disappointing "franchise player," they have not found a way to solve the power forward position (Tyler Hansborough and Josh McRoberts is not a good start), and Jim O'Brien seems to have lost control of the team.  What the Pacers do have going for them is a ton of cap space moving forward.  They have nearly $34 million in expiring contracts and could dangle Danny Granger to a team looking to upgrade on the wing.  One deal that makes sense for both teams would be for the Pacers to trade Granger and a 2011 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green, Morris Peterson's expiring deal, and a 2011 1st round pick.  The Pacers would reunite the 2007 Georgetown front court, would save more money for the next few years, and would finally solve their power forward problem.  Of course, that trade - which would also allow the Thunder to land a premier outside shooter and wing defender - makes too much sense to actually come to fruition. 

16. Denver Nuggets: Rather than trade Carmelo Anthony, why not follow the path the Lakers took in 2007 when Kobe Bryant made a similar demand.  A package of Kenyon Martin ($16.5 million expiring contract), Aaron Afflalo (an incredibly efficient defender who can play lock down defense on the wing) and Anthony Carter, along with a draft pick, could land them David West, Willie Green and Trevor Ariza. Even if Carmelo were to walk in the summer, the Nuggets could rebuild with Nene and West up front, Ty Lawson, Ariza, Billups and whatever they can get in a package for Melo (who will likely have to opt for a sign-and-trade after all). Supposing they eventually make a deal with the Knicks after the season ends, they could add players like Landry Fields, Wilson Chandler, and a 1st rounder to the aforementioned core.  Or, they could trade Carmelo for 50 cents on the dollar and doom themselves to mediocrity for years to come. 

15. Portland Trail Blazers: I live about two hours north of the City of Roses, and I am absolutely scared to death of going there for one reason: I am pretty sure my body would break down the moment I stepped out of the car.  We all know what happened to Greg Oden, but now Brandon Roy is out - and quite possibly for a very long time given his health concerns - and their other centers (Camby and Pryzbilla) are also battling lingering injuries. Much like Houston, this team still finds a way to win, but all that winning won't help them come April, when they will need to beat a team like the Spurs or the Lakers to advance to the second round of the playoffs.  


14.  New Orleans Hornets: Did you know that this team is currently tied for third in the Western Conference? Neither did I until I checked the standings earlier today.  The only stories we here coming out of NOLA center on Chris Paul's eventual departure, and the possible relocation of the team.  However, Monty Williams has done a hell of a job getting the most out of his roster, and Chris Paul has had another great season.  The question remains, is this team good enough to win a playoff series? Right now I would take the Spurs, Lakers, Thunder, Mavericks and Jazz over the Hornets, and New Orleans is not good enough to land a top-2 spot and host the Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Grizzlies or Rockets.  Furthermore, all the speculation as to what is going to happen with the franchise does not bode well for their future.  My guess: they eventually bite the bullet and trade Chris Paul for a package of draft picks and cap space and move to a city like Kansas City or San Jose.


The Mike Fratello Division:
Teams likely to advance to the playoffs, but unlikely to advance in the second season.


13. Memphis Grizzlies: The O.J. Mayo - Tony Allen story, wherein the two reportedly got in to an altercation on the team plane over a gambling debt, brought back ominous memories of the Washington Wizards last year.  Thankfully, the Grizzlies on the court are a lot better than they are off the court.  Zach Randolph is once again proving his doubters wrong, averaging a double-double, Mike Conley has finally proven himself capable of being a starting point guard in the NBA, and Rudy Gay has justified the bloated contract that Memphis gave him in the off season.  Add to that a quality starting center in Marc Gasol, and a bevvy of 2-guards who can bring different things to the table in Xavier Henry and the aforementioned Allen and O.J. Mayo has become somewhat expendable, particularly when you consider that the Griz will have to resign Mayo, Gasol, and Randolph this coming summer.  If they can move Mayo - say to Chicago for Taj Gibson and Charlotte's 2011 first round pick - the Griz could move forward with a quality core of 7 players, and develop their projects (remember that guy named Hasheem Thabeet?) As it stands right now, the Griz are three games out of the Western Conference Playoffs and playing the best basketball they have played in years.  If the Nuggets and/or Trail Blazers stumble, their loss could be Memphis' gain.


12. Houston Rockets: You have to feel for the Rockets. They have invested so much of their identity in Yao Ming, and the poor guy just cannot stay healthy. Nonetheless, they have an exciting group of players who can light it up, and they continue to remain competitive despite lacking anyone who can protect the basket.  They also have $38 million in expiring contracts, and some interesting trade chips in low-salary guys like Aaron Brooks, Chase Buddinger, and Courtney Lee.  Should they decide to make a push for Carmelo Anthony, or any player for that matter, they will be able to offer up a package of expiring deals, draft picks, and assets, that no other team could match.  While they might not make the playoffs, the Rockets are well managed - Darrel Morey has done a fantastic job! - and primed for success in coming years.


11. New York Knicks: I love the energy that Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton have brought Madison Square Garden, but I do not think adding Carmelo Anthony to that mix is going to help this team win basketball games.  Rather than gutting their roster for another defenseless scorer who cannot help them in the areas they need the most assistance - defense, rebounding and protecting the basket - they should trade Eddy Curry's massive expiring deal for a true center who can protect the rim, and a back up point guard.  This team is good, and will provide fans with an exciting first round playoff series, but let's not pretend that they can go any further than that right now.  Until they fill out the roster a bit more, they will be little more than first round fodder capable of scoring a lot of points.

10. Atlanta Hawks: I struggled with where to rank the Atlanta Hawks because on one hand they are a good team capable of beating anyone on any night, with a core of players that are capable and reliable. On the other hand, they have nights where they lose by 40 points, and I cannot help but think they drastically overpaid for Joe Johnson's services.  However, in the now, the Hawks are capable of nabbing a top-4 seed in the East (though I firmly believe they will slide to the 5 spot and lose to the Bulls in the first round) and continuing to be a tough match-up on a nightly basis.

9. Utah Jazz: They lack a post defender and outside shooting, yet they are still within one-and-a-half games of third place in the Western Conference.  Their recent struggles on the road (they are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and have a scoring margin of only 1.2 points) however suggest that this team is not as good as their start to the season might suggest, and despite all his talents, Deron Williams might have to deal with a first round exit once again. 


The Jerry Sloan Division:
On the cusp, but still missing a piece.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder: The aforementioned trade idea - with Indiana for Danny Granger - would make a lot of sense for this team, but let's talk about reality rather than fantasy.  While the Thunder have one of the best 1-2 punches in the NBA in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, they get little contribution on the offensive end from few others with the exception of Jeff Green.  They play everyone tight, but continually have problems with the cream of the crop in their conference.  They are 1-5 against the Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks thus far this season, and the fact of the matter is they are going to have to beat at least two of those teams to advance to the NBA Finals. While I cannot see that happening this season (barring a mid season trade landing them a stud) they are primed to rule the West for years to come.

7. Dallas Mavericks: Up until three weeks ago, I thought this team was the biggest threat to dethrone the Lakers in the West. With injuries to Caron Butler (out until at least the playoffs) and Dirk Nowitzki (they were terrible without him, and have looked so-so with him back) this team has really taken a step back, despite valuable contributions from Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry.  If they can swing something at the deadline to land them another perimeter player (Stephen Jackson anyone?) they can get back in to the mix of winning the Western Conference, but until then, they will still be a distant third (even if they did beat the Lakers this past week.)

6. Chicago Bulls:If I were the Heat, Celtics or Magic, I would be scared to death of the Bulls right now.  Despite injuries to Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, this team has managed to remain within three-and-a-half games of the Celtics because of the superhuman play of Derrick Rose.  The likely leader in the MVP race, has added a three point shot to his already deadly offensive arsenal, and he showed leadership qualities on the floor that have made him the best point guard in the game right now.  I think they will give the Celtics a true battle in the second round (probably a 7-game series) before bowing out gracefully and reloading next season with a healthier team. 

5. Miami Heat: The (New) Big Three, when healthy, are capable of beating anyone.  However, as we have seen over the past two weeks, health will be a real issue for this team moving forward, because outside of James, Wade and Bosh, this team has little else.  While a healthy Mike Miller (and perhaps Udonis Haslem?) will help them come playoff time, I am not sure they will have the tools necessary to hang with Boston and Orlando in May. 

The Final Four:
The four teams that are best built for success in the post season.

4. Orlando Magic: I mentioned in a previous post how I liked the deals they made.  J-Rich and Turkoglu have brought a lot of talent and energy to the Magic, and even if Arenas isn't lighting it up for Orlando, his arrival has opened up playing time for Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass (due to the departure of Rashard Lewis) who have played fantastic basketball over the past three weeks.  I think the Magic are capable of making it to the NBA Finals once again, and this team is starting to recognize that they need to win now because Dwight Howard will be a free agent in the summer of 2012, when they could quite possibly lose the face of their franchise. 

3. Los Angeles Lakers: Despite all the stories about how the Lakers are not living up to expectations, they are only five-and-a-half games behind the Spurs, and have the third best record in the NBA.  Kobe Bryant is playing fewer minutes per game than he has since his second season in the league.  Having Bynum back makes a huge difference, as it allows them to bring Lamar Odom off the bench, and gives them real depth up front.  When Matt Barnes returns from injury, they will be whole again, and they might even get something out of Theo Ratliff and Joe Smith come playoff time.  For every naysayer out there, I don't think it is that outlandish to think that the Lakers can win playoff games on the road.  And, if the playoffs were to start today, they would need to do just that, finding a way to win in San Antonio and Boston.

2. San Antonio Spurs: Why do I have the best team in the league at number two? Because of all the top contenders for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, the Spurs are the only one to avoid an injury to one of their best players. The Heat have played without James, Bosh and Wade. The Lakers have played without Bynum, and with a hobbled Gasol. The Celtics have won without KG, Rondo, Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal.  But the Spurs, they have not had to deal with any maladies.  And, let's not forget, these guys are getting long in the tooth.  So, while I do not wish injury upon anyone, I would not be surprised if they lost a few games down the stretch due to injury.  Having said that, they look awesome, and, if the playoffs were played today, I would pick them to win it all.

1. Boston Celtics: They are a year older, and even hungrier.  What scares me most about the Celtics is that they have done all this without their starting center, as Kendrick Perkins has yet to return from the injury he suffered in last year's NBA Finals.  They win because of their defense, but with Rajon Rondo quarterbacking the offense, Boston is great on both ends.  They are good at everything they do, and I am absolutely terrified of them right now.  However, like I said before, what matters is where you are in April and May, not January.  So, for the Celtics to win another title, they will need to be healthy, specifically, they will need Kevin Garnett to be playing at 100%, as he anchors their defense, and helps to further spread their offense with his killer 17-foot jumpshot.

As it stands right now, I like Celtics to win it all.

New Years Resolution: Don't Close the Book So Quickly

My close friends back home know this all too well, but more often than not when discussing the NBA and players who are either developing or not developing, I am far too quick to share my opinion, make a snap judgment, and write someone - or some team - off. We call this "closing the book." I have "closed the book" on many players, only to be proven woefully wrong, and later begrudgingly reopen that book. If a team is leading big at the end of the first quarter, you will often hear me say "This game is over," despite the fact that there are 36 minutes left in the contest, and few games are decided in the first 12 minutes. In short, I overreact to small sample sizes.

But, I am not alone in this. In fact, the mainstream media has made a living off of this very practice for the past ten years, to the point where the news is spoon-fed to us in 10-second sound bites. But alas, I digress. Nevertheless, those who have been watching Sportscenter over the past few weeks, reading about basketball on ESPN.com or any other major sports site, or even casually following the NBA, have likely encountered the following conversation among sportswriters:

Sportswriter 1: So, how about the Lakers slump, they sure look awful, don't they?
Sportswriter 2: Sure do. I think we are seeing the end of a dynasty.
Sportswriter 1: Well, they have lost four out of their last eight games, and they just don't have the spirit of an NBA Champion.
Sportswriter 2: That's right, and with teams like the San Antonio Spurs, nearly half a dozen games ahead of them in the Western Conference Standings, they look like they're in trouble this postseason.

Some of what these fictitious sportswriters just said is true. The Lakers have looked pretty mediocre of late. They have played an uninspiring brand of basketball, and they have been embarrassed - on their home court no less - by inferior teams who were merely hungrier for the W. But, while they have lost four out of their last eight games, they have also won nine out of their last 13. And that's not that bad.

In short, because of our expectations of what the Los Angeles Lakers were supposed to be like heading in to this season, we view their play-to-date as a let down. But, that does not require us to go that extra step and opine about how they are unlikely to advance far in the playoffs or contend for another Championship in June. But, this is nothing new. Just prior to the playoffs last season, every sportswriter, talking head, blogger, and friend of mine completely wrote off the Boston Celtics. After all, following a torrid start to the season, they were a .500 team over the last 50 games, and a few weeks before the second season they looked very average.

How did those Celtics do again? Oh, that's right, they came within two minutes of securing another championship, eventually losing in an epic seventh game to the Los Angeles Lakers.

So, while the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks have been winning consecutive games by the dozen, pasting their opponents, and racking up the W's, the Lakers have been playing down to their opponents, and are the only "top-tier" team without an impressive win streak.

What I am trying to say is this, in the world we live in today, where a 24-hour news cycle dominates our lives and tells us everything we need to know - and more information we could do without - we tend to look at issues solely in the "now," rather than analyzing those very issues in the grand scheme of things. Sure, the Lakers may look like an average team now, in January. But, what matters in sports is that you save your best for the playoffs, when it is "win and go home" time. After all, who knows what injuries, off-court incidents, or other issues might affect the top teams between now and April, when the NBA begins their annual four-month long playoff competition.

(NB: I say that as though I have a problem with watching basketball, when in fact the only problem I have is watching too much basketball. Case in point, the other night I watched the entire game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies. I am pretty sure NO ONE has ever watched an entire sporting event between teams based out of Oklahoma City and Memphis.)

Everybody closes the book too early, everybody judges another by a small sample of their work, and everyone writes off good teams, and talented players. And changing that way of thinking is one of my resolutions this year.

With that in mind, I would like to make a public ("public" in the sense of the four people that actually read my blog) apology to Michael Beasley. The uber-talented forward from the Minnesota Timbererwolves seemed like a lost soul not that long ago with the Miami Heat. As early as the summer before his rookie season, when he got in to a bit of off-court trouble (along with Mario Chalmers) at a preseason function, I declared him a bust. Boy, was I wrong.

Beasley is currently averaging 22 points and 6 rebounds per game, and is shooting a stifling 44% from 3-point range. He has teamed up with Kevin Love to form one of the most dynamic frontcourts in the entire Association, and he has found redemption in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. More importantly, he has proven all of his critics wrong, myself included.

I sincerely hope I am able to follow through on my resolution to not "close the book" early on others, to judge less, and to let things play out a bit more.  Here's to hoping others do the same.