Eastern Conference:
Running on Empty
15. Cleveland: There is very little to like in Cleveland in terms of the Cavaliers' chances this season. While rookie Kyrie Irving is projected by many to be the next great point guard, the fact that he has few quality players surrounding him on the wings will likely spell doom for the Cavs. The best thing for Cleveland is to finish with a high lottery pick and add some more pieces to a developing core of Irving and Tristan Thompson. Outside of those two, only other intriguing young players on the Cavs' roster is Omri Casspi (unless of course you're high on Alonzo Gee and Manny Harris.) Expected Win Total: 18.
14. Detroit: Though I expect them to finish with a better record than the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Detroit Pistons are probably in a worse position than their Central Division cohorts, as the Pistons are - and will continue to be - beleaguered by questionable contracts. They currently have a glut of young small forwards with Austin Daye, Jonas Jerekbo, and Kyle Singler, and somehow Joe Dumars - in all his wisdom - thought it was a good idea to sign Tayshaun Prince to a contract extension paying the 31-year old Wildcat an average of $11 million over the next three seasons. Add to that the lack of a true point guard, and a surplus of combo guards in Ben Gordon, Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey, and the Pistons don't have much to point to in terms of a bright spot in their future. Perhaps the one thing Dumars has done right over the past few years was drafting Greg Monroe out of Georgetown. The former Hoya showed flashes of brilliance last season, and perhaps he and Brandon Knight can team-up to form a formidable pick-and-roll tandem. Nevertheless, with onerous contracts assigned to Prince, Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, it is hard to see how the Pistons will improve internally. Like in Cleveland, it will have to come through the draft. Expected Win Total: 20
13. Charlotte: The Bobcats might have the least talented lineup in the NBA, but they have shown over the past few years that they can play defense. As such, I expect them to edge out Cleveland and Detroit in the Eastern Conference basement. The thought of a Tyrus-Thomas-Boris Diaw-Bismack Biyombo front line ensures that the Bobcats will finish last in the NBA in scoring, as their stable of guards (D.J. Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette, and Kemba Walker) leaves a lot to be desired as well. Michael Jordan is probably the worst owner in the Association, but Paul Silas has proven at every stop along the way that he knows how to get the most out of his players. Expected Win Total: 21
Rebuilding Mode
12. Toronto: The Raptors have a new coach (Dwane Casey) but the same old problem, they don't have a go-to scorer, and their lineup is a hodge-podge of poorly-fitting pieces. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement provision, which allows for each team to waive a player, and not have it count against them for luxury tax purposes, or the salary cap, seems tailor-made for this team. They will be paying center Andrea Bargnani $9.25 million this season to shoot three pointers and avoid grabbing rebounds, $9.75 million for Jose Calderon to make us wish that NBA contracts were not guaranteed, $7.6 million to a washed-up Leandro Barbosa (who has not been the same since he left Phoenix, and the comfort of having skip passes thrown his way from Steve Nash) and over $4.5 million to Linas Kleiza, who is a nice little player, but not for that money. Hopefully Dwane Casey can get Ed Davis and Amir Johnson to buy in to his defensive philosophy, as those big man are capable of being defensive stoppers, given proper coaching. Expected Win Total: 23
11. Washington: I fully expect John Wall to make "the leap" this season, and in so doing, improve the play of those around him. He has two talented scorers at the shooting guard position with Nick Young and Jordan Crawford signed up for this season, and athletes who can run the floor and protect the paint in JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche. I also think Rashard Lewis will be able to give them a lot more than people are expecting at the small forward position, and whenever Jan Vesely comes over they will have a pretty strong core of young ballers. I struggled with the idea of having the Wizards sneak in to the playoffs this season, as they have the type of depth that teams need to successfully navigate through a shortened and compressed season. Ronny Turiaf, Trevor Booker, and Chris Singleton should be able to give them strong minutes off the bench up front, while Maurice Evans should provide them with veteran leadership and a strong locker room voice. Though they might not be there yet, with a Wall-Young/Crawford-Singleton-Vesely/Blatche-McGee seven-man rotation, they should be a playoff team beginning next season and for a number of years thereafter. Expected Win Total: 27
Potential Playoff Fodder
10. Milwaukee: Once again, let me say it, depth matters in a compressed season. The Milwaukee Bucks never really had a chance last season to put the personnel out on the court that they had hoped to play. Injuries to Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings destroyed any chance they had of competing for a place in the post season. However, they have a very deep front court (Bogut, Drew Gooden, Jon Brockman, Tobias Harris, Larry Sanders, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jon Leuer and Ersan Ilyasova) and some new pieces on the wings (Mike Dunleavy and Stephen Jackson) that can help them in myriad ways. They should be able to improve upon their horrid offensive showing last year with their recent additions, but I still don't think they have the pieces to move up in to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Expected Win Total: 28
9. New Jersey: Though the Nets have depth (Jordan Farmer and Ben Uzoh backing up Deron Williams and plenty of bigs to spell Brook Lopez, including the newly resigned Kris Kardashian Humphries) they lack talent beyond Deron Williams. For everything Brook Lopez contributes on the offensive end, he regressed last season and pulled down a paltry 6.5 rebounds/game. Reportedly, the Nets' staff will be tracking all of Lopez' potential rebound opportunities, perhaps in a move to light a fire under his ass, but unless he can start playing like a true big man, Deron Williams will be left to do most of the heavy lifting. I like the addition of Marshon Brooks to this team, but unless New Jersey can swing a trade for Dwight Howard, I don't think they have the chops to make it to the second season. Expected Win Total: 30
One-and-Out in the Playoffs
8. Atlanta: Introducing my pick to see the greatest drop-off in play from the 2010 season in the Eastern Conference. While the Hawks return their starting five, (though Jeff Teague is likely to replace Kirk Hinrich at point guard to begin the season) the loss of Jamal Crawford cannot be understood solely through the lens of Crawford's ability to put the ball in the hoop. Rather, Crawford was at times the only player who was able to initiate the offense and score easy points for the Hawks. Atlanta will be relying more on the likes of Marvin Williams this season, and added veterans Tracy McGrady, Vladimir Radmonovic and Jerry Stackhouse are unlikely to give them much in the way of replacement value for Crawford. It is also quite possible that the Hawks deal defensive stalwart Josh Smith during the season, as ownership has shown a reluctance to exceed the luxury tax. If Atlanta were to make such a move, they would surely slide out of the playoff picture and back in to the lottery, erasing years of progress. Expected Win Total: 32
7. Philadelphia: Doug Collins shocked a lot of people last year when he coached the 76ers back in to the playoffs. The Sixers return with their lineup virtually intact, and have the requisite depth to deal with multiple back-to-back games. Jrue Holiday showed that he is a stud in the making last year, and should be able to add to his repertoire by taking over more of the offensive reigns from Andre Iguodala. Nevertheless, Iguodala might be the most underrated wing defender in the NBA right now. So long as Evan Turner, Lou Williams and Thadeus Young can give them some scoring from the wings, the Sixers should be fine on that end of the court. Elton Brand had a great bounce back season in 2010-2011, and if he can stay healthy, he will be a tremendous asset for Philadelphia this season. Spencer Hawes is slated as their starting center to begin the season, but I wouldn't sleep on rookie Nikola Vucevic out of USC. So long as he can continue hitting long jump shots and spacing the floor like he did in college, he will allow Coach Collins to play him in a lineup of Holiday, Williams, Iguodala, and Brand that should be able to challenge teams inside and out. Expected Win Total: 34
6. Orlando: Predicting the likelihood of success for the Orlando Magic is very difficult without first knowing the answer to the following question: how much longer will Dwight be playing in the shadow of the Epcot Center? In short, the Orlando Magic go as Dwight goes, and lately Dwight has given every hint that he wants to go...elsewhere. Otis Smith doubled-down in the off season, resigning Jason Richardson to a 4-year extension (always a risky move for a 30-year old shooting guard with a spotty history of injuries) and sending out the very productive Brandon Bass, for the over-hyped, undersized, defenseless and limited child known as Glen Davis. The former LSU Tiger was able to succeed in Boston despite his skill set. Without a transcendent point guard (Jameer Nelson is a fine little guard, but far from the visionary that is Rajon Rondo) or multiple shooters to surround him, Davis is likely to be exposed for what he is. Additionally, Dwight has not much growth on the offensive end and the other Magic players are getting a bit long in the tooth to provide the scoring punch and defensive stops to make this team a contender. I fully expect for Dwight to be wearing a different jersey by the time next year, though it is not clear whether he will be traded in-season. Expected Win Total: 39
Getting Frisky
5. New York: The Amare-Carmelo duo will play another season together without an entire training camp under the belt, but this time, they have some protection up front with the addition of NBA Finals "defensive ace" Tyson Chandler. Though I think his signing has been over hyped, he will be able to help the Knicks start the fast break more often with his ability to stop players in the post and stymie penetrating guards. Nevertheless, Chandler's addition came at the expense of the Knicks' back court, as it required New York to waive guard Chauncey Billups. Though the Knicks have since added Baron Davis - who is likely to be out for the first six plus weeks of the season with a back injury - their back court consists of Mike Bibby, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert. Unless that foursome can provide Mike D'Antoni with quality minutes and the ability to light it up from outside, it won't matter how much Amare and 'Melo can dazzle on Broadway. Expected Win Total: 41
4. Indiana: Not only does this team have a terrific, young core of players who are likely to be around for years to come (Darren Collison, George Hill, Paul George, Danny Granger, Tyler Hansbrough, David West, and Roy Hibbert) but they have the depth to compete this season and perhaps win a playoff series. David West gives them a proven power forward at a great price (though questions remain about his surgically-repaired knee), someone who can play the pick-and-roll or step out and hit a 17-foot jump shot, and allows Tyler Hansbrough to be an effective seventh man off the bench. Darren Collison will be pushed by the addition of George Hill, but I believe Hill's addition will have the effect of making both players reach their full potential, and, given Hill's length and shooting ability, it is quite possible the two will spend time together in the back court. Roy Hibbert provides the Pacers with a stable and solid presence in the middle, and Danny Granger - when healthy - is one of the more dynamic players in the NBA. I like what Indiana has right now, and I think it is only going to get better. Expected Win Total: 44
3. Boston: I am not sure what to make of Boston, or what to expect from them this season. I love the Brandon Bass trade, but I think adding players like Keyon Dooling, Sasha Pavlovic and Chris Wilcox does little to help them now, or in the future. No team will be hit as hard by the compressed schedule as the Boston Celtics, whose "Big Three" are an average of 35 years old. Nevertheless, this team knows how to win, they know how to play strong defense, and above all else, they trust one another. Expected Win Total: 46
The Contenders
2. Chicago: I have been vacillating on who will actually finish the season with the best record in the East, and while I believe it will eventually be the Bulls, I can't help but remember how effectively Miami shut down the Chicago offense. The addition of Rip Hamilton at shooting guard is a huge coup for the Bulls, as he provides them with a number of skills they were sorely lacking last season: shooting, the ability to score without the ball in his hands at all times, playoff experience, and a veteran voice in the locker room. Expect the same suffocating defense that Tom Thibodeau employed last season - and in past years in Boston - to remain this year, and there is no reason to think that Derrick Rose is done growing as a player. In the end, I truly believe the Bulls will be playing the Heat for the right to go to the NBA Finals. Expected Win Total: 52
1. Miami: As much as I dislike the way the Miami "Big Three" came together, they showed that they meant business in their very first season together. Were it not for LeBron James' unprecedented fourth-quarter collapses in the Finals against Dallas, the Heat would be the defending champs. This year they return the same team that came within one game of winning a championship, and add grizzled-veteran (pun intended) Shane Battier to the mix. Though his play last season was not quite what we have come to expect from the former Duke-product, Battier might be the perfect fit for this team. It is quite likely that he will see extended minutes as a "stretch-four" employing his aggressive brand of defense on opposing power forwards, while drawing the opponent out of the paint and knocking down corner-three-pointers. It is also common knowledge now that LeBron James has added a post-game to his repertoire (it only took him 8 years, but better late than never) which ought to keep opposing teams guessing when Miami sets up their half-court offense. Say what you want about LeBron, D-Wade and Chris Bosh, but they are certainly the most talented three-man combination in the league right now. Expected Win Total: 54
