2012 Western Conference Preview

15. Phoenix Suns: 25-57. Apparently the Suns were working hard to complete a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder to acquire shooting guard James Harden. In the end, the Rockets were able to provide OKC with the best offer, and as a result the Suns have lost out on the one player they were truly honing in on when they will have cap space available next summer. The Suns were active this summer, as they reshuffled the majority of their roster. While players such as Marcin Gortat and Jared Dudley will be returning, the best player in their franchise history is now wearing a Lakers uniform. Additionally, the loss of Robin Lopez (via trade with New Orleans) and Channing Frye (who is battling a heart issue) means the Suns will be super-thin up front. The Suns were able to bring back Goran Dragic, who should thrive in the role as the starting point guard, and signed the thus-far underwhelming Michael Beasley to a three-year contract. In the end, this team is missing too many attributes of a quality organization (rebounding, shooters and notable a strong defensive presence) to expect much. While they may have some players who put up some gaudy fantasy statistics (I'm looking at you Goran!) they will be pretty putrid on the court, and the once proud franchise - which was a regular playoff contender with Nash in his prime - will regress during the first year of a true rebuilding program.

14. Sacramento Kings: 29-53. I am aware that the Kings have some nice young talent (namely up front with DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson and at point guard with Isaiah Thomas) and an underrated head coach (Keith Smart). However, the rest of their team is an absolute mess, and it seems that they have wasted some high draft picks in recent years on players who either a. showed great potential and athleticism in college (Tyreke Evans) or b. we all knew were not going to pan out (Jimmer Ferdette). They are carrying some crappy contracts with the likes of Francisco Garcia and Travis Outlaw on the books for roughly a combined $10 million this season. Add to that the fact that the just signed Marcus Thornton and Jason Thompson to long deals, and it is unclear what the Kings are doing. Cousins is good enough to carry this team to a number of wins on his own, and I believe that Thomas, Thornton and Robinson will help make this squad better in the long run. But, unless the Kings are able to move players like Evans and Ferdette for a genuine solution on the wing, this team will be experiencing a lot of losing for years to come.

13. Houston Rockets: 32-50. As of Saturday, I had Houston winning around 25 games. But, factoring in the acquisition of James Harden as well as the defensive presence that Omer Asik should bring on a nightly basis, I believe this team is capable of eeking out somewhere between 30 and 34 wins this year. The Jeremy Lin signing was somewhat of a head-scratcher. The Rockets had not one, but two point guards who were eminently capable of manning the reigns of the offense in Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry. But, they let the former go via free agency, and traded the later to Toronto for a draft pick (which they later sent to OKC for the rights to James Harden.) The Rockets are different from the Kings in two very important ways: one, they have a vision for their future (namely, to build around Harden and Lin in the back court, with Asik and their glut of forwards representing the future of their front court) and two, they are not burdened by any heavy contracts or poor draft picks for the coming years. A lot depends on what Kevin McHale is able to get out of his young players (Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Royce White and Terrence Jones) and whether Chandler Parsons is able to build on his late-season momentum from last year. I imagine the Rockets will continue to be active on the trade market, and wouldn't be surprised to see them land another big name, with the hope of building a playoff contender (would a package of Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones and Chandler Parsons and Minnesota's First Round Pick in 2013 be enough to land Pau Gasol?). In the short-term, I cannot see this team winning more than 34 games this season, and think it is fair to say that while Darryl Morey is not yet done with his plan to rebuild the Rockets, his vision is beginning to take shape.

12. Portland Trailblazers: 34-48. This projected record is based solely on LaMarcus Aldridge. If he misses more than 15 games for whatever reason, I think the 'Blazers are likely going to finish in the cellar of the Western Conference. While Damian Lillard seems ready for the professional game, I am not sure I can say the same about Meyers Leonard - the rookie out of Illinois. I thought Portland vastly overpaid for Nicolas Batum, and it looks as though Wesley Matthews has reached his ceiling (and still has roughly $21 million left on a contract that runs through 2015.) Nevertheless, new coach Terry Stotts is well-respected around the league, and was the lead assistant on the Dallas Mavericks 2010-2011 Championship team. Additionally, with a lot of turnover from last season and notably chucker Jamal Crawford no longer in Rip City, I imagine Aldridge will see more touches on offense, and should be able to surpass 24 points per game. If the Trailblazers are able to stay solid at home - where they play in front of one of the most rabid fan bases in all of sports - they should be able to win more than 30 games. If Aldridge misses significant time, and/or the rookies fail to produce as expected, this team might not win 25 games.

11. New Orleans Hornets: 36-46. Outside of Los Angeles and Brooklyn, New Orleans had perhaps the most active off-season. They drafted Anthony Davis with the first overall selection, and later named Austin Rivers out of Duke. They traded Gustavo Ayon for Ryan Anderson, and bring in Robin Lopez to shore up the front court. Finally, they resigned Eric Gordon to a max-offer sheet, and it seems the Hornets are shoring up the foundation of their team for the future. While Davis and Rivers (particularly the later) will experience the growing pains of playing in the NBA rather than the NCAA, head coach Monty Williams should be able to coach them enough to maximize their talents. Ryan Anderson and Robin Lopez bring veteran voices to the locker room, and Eric Gordon - if healthy - should provide a large scoring punch at the starting shooting guard position. The most interesting thing about the Hornets will be how they decide to shuffle their front court minutes. With Lopez, Davis and Anderson, the Hornets could start one of the largest front courts in the Association. However, in a more likely scenario, they will bring Lopez off the bench to spell both Davis and Anderson, and stagger minutes on the wing between Xavier Henry, Al-Farouq Aminu, Roger Mason. Hakim Warrick and Greivis Vasquez. While contending for a playoff spot is a tall order for such a young team, the Hornets will beat a lot of the teams ranked ahead of them, and will be a tough match up for virtually everyone they play. In the end, they will fall short of the second season, but, with the addition of even more young talent via the 2013 draft and perhaps an active off-season in 2013 (when they will have the ability to sign another player to a max deal) this team is primed to become a force in the Southwestern Division.

10. Dallas Mavericks: 40-42. This is about the point where we start talking about playoff contenders. With a healthy Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks are capable of winning between 44 and 48 games. That is assuming everyone else (including some stiffs like Chris Kaman and Elton Brand) played a full season. While the Mavericks were able to bring in some mid-level talent in O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison and the aforementioned former Clipper-tandem, Mark Cuban is clearly positioning his franchise with an eye towards the future. Nowitzki will miss the first few weeks of the season as he recovers from a leg injury, and it is unclear whether the Kaman-Brand-Marion troika can make up for his absence. A lot will also depend on whether the young guys (Dominique Jones, Rodrigue Beaubois and Jared Cunningham) can make a discernible impact, as the back court lacks the scoring punch and stewardship it had during the Jason Terry-Jason Kidd- J.J. Barea years. At the end of the day, the Mavericks will be lucky to make it above .500, but never count out Nowitzki or Rick Carlisle. Those two are both consummate professionals, and find a way to win.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves: 41-41. Were it not for the recent news that Kevin Love will likely miss the first month of the season, and the fact that Ricky Rubio is likely out until February or March, I would have had the Timberwolves ranked ahead of the Clippers on this list. The Timberwolves raided Russia this summer, (coming away with Andrei Kirilenko, Alexey Shved, Ivan Drago, Ivan Drago's trainer and a year's supply of PEDs) and also signed Brandon Roy and traded for Chase Budinger to shore up some scoring on the wing. It remains to be seen what Roy has left in the tank and whether Shved's success in Europe can translate to the NBA. But, with Kirilenko and Derrick Williams manning the fort until Love returns, it is safe to say that this team will be okay in the interim. I expect to see Nikola Pekovic continue to improve upon his breakout season, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him score upwards of 16 points per game. Luke Ridnour and Barea bring veteran leadership to the point guard position, and hopefully will play well enough in Rubio's absence to keep the team above .500. I want to pencil Minnesota in for a playoff spot, but with injuries to their top two players, and a healthy squad in Oakland and Salt Lake City, it is hard to see where the Timberwolves fit in.

8. Golden State Warriors: 42-40. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but the Warriors have the look of a playoff team, and a tough out in the first round (I am really hoping they end up squaring off with the Thunder in the first round, as that might be the most watchable seven-game series since the Chicago-Boston thriller in 2009.) This projected record is based COMPLETELY on the health of Steph Curry, David Lee and Andrew Bogut. If those players can combine to play at least 160 games, this team is going to the playoffs. Bogut should anchor a much-improved defense, and offset the liability of Lee on that end of the court. Klay Thompson is set to make the jump to a premier scorer at the shooting guard position, and rookie Harrison Barnes should thrive off of Curry's play-making skills. The second unit (Jefferson-Jack-Landry-Rush-Ezeli) should be one of the better bench mobs in the game, and should be able to keep most games close while the starters rest. Success in Oakland ultimately comes down to whether Andrew Bogut can protect the rim like he did in Milwaukee, and if he is able to remain healthy (as that has not been the case over the last two to three seasons.) It is about time that the Warriors focused on the defensive end, and with Bogut in tow, Mark Jackson should be able to coax the other players (namely Lee and Curry) to focus their attention on that end of the floor. If the Warriors continue to give up 105 points per night, they will be on the outside looking in. But, if they are able to stay healthy, improve on defense and incorporate their younger players in to the offense, Golden State stands the chance of making the playoffs and being a tough out for whomever they draw in the first round.

7. Utah Jazz: 44-38. The Utah Jazz currently suffer from a spoil of riches up front. They will likely start Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap alongside Marvin Williams in the front court, which means that youngsters Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors will come off the bench. However, the Jazz are likely to  be active in the trade market, as both Jefferson and Millsap are free agents after this season, which means that Kanter and Favors could both find themselves in the starting lineup by February. I expect both of these young big man to make major leaps this season. I also expect Gordon Hayward to start stretching defenses, which will create space for the young big men, and allow Alec Burks to contribute offensively. The biggest hole for this team is the starting point guard position. Currently, the Jazz employ the pu-pu platter of point guards in Earl Watson, Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye. Foye is probably the most talented of the bunch, and best suited to lead this offense with Burks at the shooting guard position. Ty Corbin did one hell of a job leading this team to the playoffs next year, and I expect him to guide this squad to the playoffs again this year. However, anytime you are relying so heavily on young players - as Corbin will be forced to do - to succeed in the NBA, you are taking a major chance. If the young guys don’t pan out this season, the Mavericks or Timberwolves will likely take this spot from them. But, if everything comes together, the young nucleus that Utah has been able to build in the post-Deron Williams era, should be enough to propel them to a first round match up with one of the division winners.

6. Memphis Grizzlies: 45-37. Unless the new ownership is either willing to pay the luxury tax, or the front office is able to get creative by jettisoning Rudy Gay or Zach Randolph, I am afraid we are looking at the upper limit of what this franchise will be able to do over the next few years. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are fantastic building blocks, and both showed significant improvement last season. The problem is two-fold: for starters, Gay and Randolph have barely played with one another, so it is difficult to envision what this franchise looks like as presently constructed. Furthermore, the Grizzlies might be even worse than the Jazz when it comes to scoring from beyond the three-point line, which significantly limits their offense. On the bright side of things, the Grizzlies still have a very strong starting five, and some significant talent coming off the bench (namely Marreese Speights, Darrell Arthur and Jerryd Bayless.) I expect the Grizzlies to be good, but not great. They will likely see Gay and Randolph miss some significant time, but that has been the case over the past two seasons, and somehow they were able to thrive in the absence of both. They are clearly a playoff team, but their seed will be largely determined by their health. Expect Memphis to play lock down defense - particularly on the perimeter where Tony Allen and Mike Conley should make opposing guards really work for points - and score with aplomb inside. But, don't expect too much, as the Grizzlies' shooting deficiencies and health concerns will prevent them from finishing with a strong enough record to host a first round playoff series.

5. Los Angeles Clippers: 47-35. This is a make-or-break year for the Clippers. With Chris Paul hitting unrestricted free agency next summer, the Clippers need to prove that the surrounding cast, headlined by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, are able to win enough to keep him on Los Angeles' "other team." I don't love what the Clippers did in the off-season. Grant Hill is 40, and has little left in the tank. Jamaal Crawford is a volume scorer, and likely won't get the touches necessary to placate his mercurial personality. Chauncey Billups is older too, and coming off a serious Achilles injury. However, Eric Bledsoe has shown flashes of brilliance in the pre-season, and should lead a bench, that, on paper looks good enough to hold - and perhaps extend - a lead when Paul and Griffin are riding the pine. Lamar Odom and Matt Barnes are going to be the key to that bench. If the former can regain some of his previous success in LA, and the later is able to continue to play aggressive defense and knock down the corner three, this team could easily win 50 games. However, I think 47 is a fair win total, as there are a number of question marks surrounding this team. Also, never count out the fact that Vinny Del Negro is still employed by the Clippers, and that he will be mercilessly out-coached on a nightly basis. Unless CP3 is able to truly take over the fourth quarter in every close game, this team is unlikely to host a first round playoff series.

4. San Antonio Spurs: 52-30. And now, for the hardest team to peg. The Spurs once again proved critics wrong last season, when they ended up with the best record in the Western Conference and nearly put the Thunder away, before losing four consecutive games to the eventual Western Conference Champions. The names on the back of the jersey are less important than the fact that the core of the franchise' success over the past decade will be returning this season, and that the best coach in the Association will continue to walk the sidelines for the Spurs. Kawhi Leonard should be able to build off his late-season momentum to become more of a featured player in the offense, and Tiago Splitter is likely to improve upon a fairly decent 2011-2012 campaign. As always, the big question mark will be health. Timmy is 36 years old, Manu is already battling an injury, Tony Parker nearly lost an eye this summer in a bar fight, and Stephen Jackson is on the wrong side of 30. However, no one manages minutes like Pop, and I expect him to find the right balance between winning and preserving his players for the playoffs. Write the Spurs in for 50 wins, just don't expect too much out of them during the regular season.  

3. Denver Nuggets: 55-27. The trendy pick among many to finish with the best record in the Western Conference, the Nuggets were able to add Andre Iguodala to an already devastating offensive system. They have a strong stable of big man, all of whom are capable of either playing great, or stinking up the joint, and they are loaded on the wing and in the back court with shooters (Gallinari and Evan Fournier), defenders (Wilson Chandler, Corey Brewer and the aforementioned Iguodala) and creators (Ty Lawson and the ageless wonder, Andre Miller). The Nuggets also play home games in one of the most difficult places to visit due to the altitude, and should run most teams ragged when they visit Denver. While I don't think they have the chops to go deep in the playoffs - their lack of a go-to big man will come to haunt them against teams like Memphis or either Los Angeles franchise - they do have the personnel to win in excess of 50 games and be one of the must-watch teams on NBA League Pass. Never count out George Karl to get the most out of his team, and be prepared for a lot of small lineups featuring three guards, along with Gallinari and Kenneth "The Manimal" Farried up front. The Nuggets will be a lot of fun this season and fans in the Mile High City are already looking back on the Carmelo Anthony trade as a blessing in disguise.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: 57-25. This projection is based on two things: the health of their core (namely Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Dwight Howard) and their ability to develop chemistry as the season progresses. No doubt, the Lakers will struggle from the outset, as they try to find their identity. In a perfect world, Bryant would defer to Nash, who would run high screen-and-roll plays with Pau Gasol, and pick-and-rolls with Howard. This would leave Bryant as a safety valve on offense and save his legs for the other end, where he will be expected to continue to contribute (particularly given Nash' history of playing "matador defense.") Metta World Peace will continue to be the fifth option on offense, and should see a lot of open looks for the corner three with the Maestro (Nash) orchestrating the newly instituted Princeton offense in Los Angeles. While others are particularly down on the reserves, I feel they are a massive upgrade from the subs that logged significant minutes for the Lakers last season. Steve Blake is what he is, a large point guard who can shoot, but is not a great creator. Jodie Meeks and Antawn Jamison will both be able to stretch the defense, and should get more open looks than they are used to getting (particularly if they share the court with either of the Lakers' bigs and Steve Nash), and Jordan Hill showed late last season that perhaps there was some untapped potential in the former lottery pick. While the Lakers will struggle to find their groove, they should see a late-season run similar to what the Miami Heat were able to do in 2010-2011 when they formed their big three. Mike Brown will benefit from having former Washington Wizards coach, Eddie Jordan, on his staff, and having Nash as his on-court coach. While I expect the Lakers to contend for the Larry O'Brien trophy, I do not expect them to finish with the West's best record.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 60-22. Despite losing the league's best sixth man in James Harden, I fully expect Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka to build off of their Olympic experience to propel this team to 60 or more wins. Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison form a strong two-headed monster in the middle, and Thabo Sefolosha, Reggie Jackson and the now-healthy Eric Maynor should provide strong defense in the back court, and help Durant and Westbrook in the scoring department. I am particularly interested to see what role Perry Jones III and Tyler Lamb will play for the Thunder. While I don't expect either to be major contributors right off the bat, I imagine that by the All-Star Break both players will be seeing significant minutes, particularly if they can stretch the defense with their shooting and play above-average defense on the front line. Add to this a potent scorer and shooter in the newly-acquired Kevin Martin, and the Thunder should be one of the deadliest teams on offense. Westbrook and particularly Durant will have to improve on defense if this team is going to hold up in the playoffs, as the two best defenders are unlikely to share much court time with one another (Collison and Perkins are the team's best defenders. Serge Ibaka is great at protecting the rim, but too often he leaves his man to provide the spectacular block, and is inconsistent on the defensive glass). If the Thunder are able to incorporate K. Martin, Jones III and Lamb in to the offense, and can get productive minutes from Maynor and R. Jackson, they will remain the team to beat in the Western Conference, and should finish the season with the best record in the West.

2012 Eastern Conference Preview

This off-season saw a lot of changes in the NBA. From Dwight Howard and Steve Nash teaming up in Los Angeles, to the new Brooklyn Nets acquiring Joe Johnson. Perhaps the biggest change will be felt in Chicago, where the Bulls will be without their star point guard Derrick Rose until at least late-February or early-March.

As always, how the standings play out depends a lot upon health. If, for instance, the Hawks lose Josh Smith or Al Horford to injury for a significant amount of time, they are toast. The same goes for teams like the Pacers (with Roy Hibbert), the Nets (with Deron Williams) and the 76ers (with oft-injured big man, Andrew Bynum). So, without further adieu, here is my best guess at how the Eastern Conference will end up come April.

15. Charlotte Bobcats: 18-64. The Bobcats were historically bad last season. Their biggest move during the off-season was to jettison Corey Maggette to the Pistons in exchange for Ben Gordon and a future first round pick. While they will not miss Maggette's ball-hogging on the wing, Gordon provides little upgrade for a team bereft of scoring punch. The Bobcats will trot out one of the worst starting lineups in NBA history (Brendan Haywood, Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Ben Gordon and Ramon Sessions) and will struggle to score over 85 points on a nightly basis. They will likely beat some good teams who are playing in "The Gem of the South" on a back-to-back road trip, but will likely not crack twenty wins. The future is very bleak in Charlotte, as their young players are not only raw, but show little upside potential on the offensive end. In a league that feeds on points, the Bobcats will be bad for a while. 

14. Orlando Magic: 21-61. Obviously the Magic are going to miss Dwight Howard in the middle. His presence cannot be replicated. Unlike baseball, where general managers have been able to succeed, by reloading with multiple "bit" players even after losing top-shelf talent, the NBA is a different animal. It is a league that thrives on star talent. And, when a team loses perhaps one of the three best players in the game, they are naturally going to struggle the following season. To compound things, the Magic also let sharp-shooting big man Ryan Anderson go (sending him to New Orleans in a sign-and-trade for Gustavo Ayon) in a move that boggles the mind. They resigned Jameer Nelson in another move that makes little basketball sense (why re-up with a washed up point guard when you are trying to reload with young talent?) The Magic will be relying on players like Glen Davis, Hedo Turkoglu and J.J. Reddick to generate most of their offense. That last sentence probably made most Orlando fans throw up in their mouth. The hope is that in a few years the Magic are able to rid themselves on their veteran players - and their burdensome contracts - and rebuild with young talent.

13. Cleveland Cavaliers: 28-54. While Dion Waiters was a surprise pick for the Cavaliers, the future is bright in Cleveland. They are building a talented core, beginning with dynamic point guard Kyrie Irving, forward Tristan Thompson, and the aforementioned Waiters. Anderson Varejao provides veteran stability in the middle, and strong leadership in the locker room. While the Cavaliers will not be good this year, they will be better, and, with another high draft pick in this years draft, they could be a playoff team by the 2013-2014 season.

12. Washington Wizards: 30-52. John Wall's injury will hurt the Wizards chances of making the playoffs this year, but the addition of Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Nene for an entire season will make this team stronger in the short term. While those off-season additions hamstring Washington's ability to build a contender around Wall, they should be a stronger defensive unit in the short term. And with young players like Trevor Booker, Jan Vessely, and Chris Singleton, the hope is that the Wizards can improve from within. With teams like Orlando and Charlotte in their division, the Wizards should be able to get some easy wins, but this team will be well under .500 unless John Wall takes a major step. 

11. Detroit Pistons: 35-47. The Pistons are getting better from within (since Detroit is not a true destination for free agents, this is the best the Pistons can do for now) with stud big-man Greg Monroe and guard Brandon Knight, who, in his first season, showed flashes of a star in the making. The addition of Andre Drummond via the draft will likely not pay dividends this season, but the Pistons are taking the long view, hoping that in another year or two they can move in to the middle-tier of teams fighting for a playoff spot. The Pistons are in dire need of moving some of their glut of combo-forwards to nab a scoring guard who can better complement Brandon Knight than the thus-far underachieving Rodney Stuckey. The Pistons will be a tough team on a nightly basis, but ultimately will fall short of the playoffs.

10. Toronto Raptors: 38-44. Dwayne Casey is already beginning to make his imprimatur with this young Raptors team by emphasizing defense. While Andrea Bargnani will never be confused with a bruising big man, he can score from outside, and with other bigs, like Ed Davis, and rookie Jonas Valanciunas, protecting the rim, and crashing the boards, Toronto's front-court is beginning to take shape. The addition of Kyle Lowry should also pay dividends on the defensive end, and if his three point shooting from last season holds up, the offensive end as well. This will be a make-or-break year for DeMar DeRozan, who has yet to impress in the "416", and Landry Fields and Terrence Ross will be fighting him for minutes on the wing. The Raptors will compete for the 8-seed in the playoffs, but likely miss out if Derrick Rose returns to full health for the last 20 or so games.

9. Milwaukee Bucks: 40-42. I would rank the Bucks higher if I knew what they were doing up front. They have a dynamic back-court with Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, but with the exception of Ersan Ilysasova (and perhaps rookie John Henson), they are pretty devoid of talent up front. Scott Skiles will push this team nightly, but, with the loss of Andrew Bogut in the middle (via the Monta Ellis trade last season he will have to make the transition from a defense-first organization to a

8. Chicago Bulls: 42-40. The aforementioned injury to Derrick Rose - sustained in Game 1 of the First Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs last year - will shape the season for the Bulls, whether they like it or not. Chicago also had to remake their roster on the fly, losing contributors like Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer, and C.J. Watson, and replacing them with the likes of Nazr Mohammed, Marco Belinelli and Nate Robinson. If the Bulls can play .500 ball without Rose, stay true to the defensive system that Tom Thibodeau has installed in Chicago, and get solid shooting out of their wing players, they will be in playoff contention throughout the season. With Rose, they are a scary playoff team to any higher seed, but for now, they are at best the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference.

7. Philadelphia 76ers: 44-38. This forecast depends entirely upon Andrew Bynum's health. As of now, he is still dealing with knee injuries, the same issue that has plagued him throughout his career. Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner will be expected to produce a lot, particularly with Andre Iguodala now wearing a Nuggets jersey. Additionally, Thaddeus Young will be leaned on for big minutes, be it at the small forward position, or in small-ball lineups as a face-up four man. Doug Collins tends to get the most out of his players, and he also has a way of maximizing his team's defensive potential. However, in the past, Collins' teams have tended to tune him out after three to four years. With a healthy Andrew Bynum, an improved Holiday-Turner tandem, and a team engaged to what Collins is preaching, this team could win 50 games. But, given the uncertainty of all of those factors, 44 wins and the seventh seed seems about right for this squad.

6. New York Knicks: 45-37. This is the classic style over substance team. Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire were supposed to be the dynamic duo in Gotham, but since coming over from Denver, Anthony's presence on the Knicks has not panned out as hoped. Their brief flirtation with "Linsanity" was a cute story but ultimately not sustainable, as the Knicks chose to import Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, and all the AARP benefits available, rather than re-signing Lin, and the productive (and under-the-radar helpful) Josh Harrelson. They did re-up J.R. Smith and Steve Novak, which will hep on the offensive end, but this team's success will be predicated on what they can do on the other end. If Tyson Chandler can replicate his defensive presence from last season, the Knicks should be alright. However, having a huge lineup of Chandler, Stoudemire and Anthony up front does not make sense. The Knicks are better off bringing Stoudemire off the bench in the role of a sixth man, and starting Anthony at power forward (something that will likely happen anyway, since Amar'e is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season with an injury.) The Knicks back-court will routinely get lit up by speedy point guards, but the team should be formidable enough to nab the sixth seed with around 44-47 wins on the season.

5. Brooklyn Nets: 47-35. While the Brooklyn Nets spending spree this summer was about as reckless as driving drunk, the short-term benefits will be felt with a massive improvement on the court. In addition to adding Joe Johnson to the back-court with Deron Williams, the Nets will have a healthy Brook Lopez (despite his paltry rebound-rate) and hopefully a strong bench with Marshon Brooks (now playing in a a sixth man role), C.J. Watson (playing back-up to Williams), and Mirza Teletovic (providing some shooting depth in the front-court). The Nets will get pounded on the boards on a nightly basis, as Lopez and Humphries lack the skills to clear missed shots, and the two provide absolutely no protection at the rim, meaning the Nets will have to score a lot to win games. But, with two all stars in Williams and Johnson, the Nets should be good enough to compete on a nightly basis, and they should get the five seed by virtue of elimination rather than anything else. However, if Williams misses a long stretch of games, the Nets could be in for another disaster season. 

4. Atlanta Hawks: 49-33. Yes, those Hawks. The same team that traded Joe Johnson for expiring contracts, and moved Marvin Williams to Utah for Devin Harris. The Hawks may have lost a lot of names, but they retained their two best players in Al Horford and Josh Smith. Surrounding Horford and Smith with proven shooters in Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow, along with Lou Williams and Anthony Tolliver, will stretch defenses out to the three point line, and should allow for either Devin Harris or Jeff Teague to get in to the lane and draw fouls on opposing defenders. Not only do the Hawks have a bright future with a lot of money coming off their books in the next 18 months, but their present is equally bright, as they should be able to stay competitive, and maybe even win 50 games despite losing 40% of their starting lineup.

3. Boston Celtics: 54-28. This is perhaps the deepest team the Celtics have run out since the "Big Three" came together in 2007. And, while the "Big Three" may be no more, with Ray Allen having signed with the Miami Heat in the off-season, the Celtics go at least two deep at every position. Rajon Rondo is due for a huge season (I am predicting 16 points, 12 assists and 5 rebounds per game) and along with Courtney Lee, Avery Bradley and Jason Terry, will form the deepest and most talented back-court in the NBA. Up front, Pierce and Garnett are joined by Brandon Bass, a now-healthy Jeff Green and newcomers Fab Melo and Jared Sullinger. The Celtics depth, commitment to defense, and swagger should allow them to comfortably land a top-3 seed in the East. While I believe they are a Championship-caliber team, I imagine they will deal with some injuries over the course of the season - understandable for an aging team - which will likely prevent them from passing the next two teams on this list.

2. Indiana Pacers: 56-26. The Pacers will benefit from a weak division (particularly so due to the injury to Derrick Rose), roster continuity, and an understanding of what they represent. While the Pacers do not have a true All-Star on their roster, they are strong up front, with Roy Hibbert, David West, and Danny Granger, as well as in the back-court with George Hill and the rapidly improving Paul George. Gerald Green, Tyler Hansborough and D.J. Augustin will form the core of a fairly potent second unit and the entire team should benefit from a long playoff run last season. While I still do not believe that the Pacers have the personnel to compete with either Miami or Boston in the post-season, during the regular season I fully expect Indiana to surpass 50 wins and finish with the second seed.

1. Miami Heat: 64-18. Enough has been said about the off-season acquisitions the Heat made (namely Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis) as well as how Dwyane Wade is recovering from injury faster than expected. However, what is really telling, and perhaps will lead directly to future success for Miami is the notion of a "position-less" roster, wherein Chris Bosh will be manning the middle, and LeBron James will be playing at the four, as a "point forward." While Bosh will struggle to guard the Bynums, Howards and Hibberts of the league, he will probably fare quite well against other true centers, and the tandem of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the wing will make it hard for any opposing player to penetrate the Miami defense. LeBron James should have another monster season, and is likely in line for yet another MVP award. I fully expect to see Miami back in the NBA Finals, but before making that prediction, I will have to see how they deal with any injuries, and whether they are able to deal with the malaise that often sets in after a team has climbed to the top of the mountain.

The NBA Age Rule

Hello Again
I do not get the chance to post on here nearly as much as I would like. But, with the regular season beginning in twelve days, I figured now was as good a time as any to start back up with my basketball blog. In today's post, I want to briefly touch on a few issues: the NBA age rule, contracts, lineups, and a little something special for the end. So, without further adieu, let's get started.

The NBA Age Rule Makes a Mockery of the NCAA:
The age eligibility rule states that, "All drafted players must be at least 19 years old during the calendar year of the draft. To determine whether a player is eligible for a given year's draft, subtract 19 from the year of the draft. If the player was born during or before that year, he is eligible. Any player who is not an "international player", as defined in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, must be at least one year removed from the graduation of his high school class." In other words, unless you are an international player, you need to either spend a year in college or play elsewhere until you are 19 years old.

The problem with the rule, as I see it, is that it turns the NCAA in to a veritable farm system for the professional league, and takes away from the college game. Case in point, The University of Kentucky. The entire core of this year's National Championship team fled UK for greener pastures after securing John Calipari's first NCAA title. However, this is nothing new. For the major programs (colleges in the big-six conferences: Big East, ACC, SEC, Big-10, Big-12, and Pac-12) the notion of having a top prospect high school player stay on campus beyond his freshman year has become a fantasy.  While this has led to an influx of great young talent over the past few years (just consider that since 2008 the following players have entered the NBA after only one year in college: Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, John Wall, Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bradley Beal) it has also saturated the NBA with players who were just not ready for the big time quite yet. Beasley, Mayo and Evans come to mind when considering who would have benefited from some more time on campus, honing their skills and getting some more coaching.

The other problem, at least as I see it, is that the current system, beginning with the AAU programs, creates these kids who are perceived as prodigies, coddles them throughout their teenage years, and then expects them to just produce in a league of men.  Remember that for every LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, there is a DaJuan Wagner.

So, what then is the solution? Why not take a page from the other professional leagues? Major League Baseball allows high-school students to enter the draft. Once drafted (or not drafted) those players can choose to either go straight in to the professional ranks (likely starting in Single-A) or attend college.  But, if the player chooses to attend college, he must stay in school through his Junior year before leaving to play professional ball.

The baseball rule has three profound effects, which touch on the player, the school, and the professional team they join. First, the player learns good habits, breaks bad habits, and begins to understand what it is like to play against grown men. Second, the school becomes less of a sports factory and produces true "student-athletes."  The NBA rule makes a mockery of "student-athletes," in that freshman phenoms are only required to pass their fall semester courses. What happens after that does not affect the results on the court.  Finally, the league - in this case Major League Baseball - receives the benefit of having players who have been groomed properly and those who cannot cut it at the collegiate level are weeded out via natural selection.

In short, the current rule in the NBA is a disservice to the player, the league, and most importantly the fans.  You know, those people who shell out over a billion dollars each season on tickets and items purchased at the various arenas.  The NBA should consider using the Developmental League as a true minor league rather than pimping out players via the NCAA and continuing to pull the wool over the eyes of the American public. 

What if?
Those who know me best understand that my grasp on fiction and reality is tenuous at best.  Having said that, I have long wondered who would win a hypothetical three-on-three match-up among the characters from The Wire.  In the first season, episode nine is titled Game Day and pits the East-Baltimore Project "all stars" coached by Proposition Joe against the West-Baltimore Project "all stars" coached by Avon Barksdale and Stringer Bell. What I have always wanted to know is who would win if a true three-on-three style tournament were put on, and of course, who would make it on to the various teams?

Here is how I think it would play out:

Game One, "The Original West Side Crew": Avon Barksdale, Stringer Bell and Roland "Wee-Bey" Brice versus "The Low Rise Kids": D'Angelo Barksdale, Malik "Poot" Carr and Preston "Bodie" Broadus.
      Winner: This one is not even close. The older crew, headlined by Avon and Stringer - who definitely have some alley-oop potential in them - would steamroll the young guns and easily advance to play the winner of the following...
Game Two, "The West Side Replacements": Marlo Stanfield, Christ Partlow and Felicia Snoop Pearson versus "The Corner Kids": Michael Lee, Randy Wagstaff and Namond Brice.
     Winner: In a "shocking" upset, I think the corner kids, led by Michael Lee's inside presence and Namond Brice's rugged rebounding would dismiss Marlo's gang.

Game Three, "The East Side Crew": "Proposition" Joe Stewart, Calvin "Cheese" Wagstaff and "Slim" Charles versus "Every Man Must Have a Code": Omar Little, William "Bunk" Moreland and Lester Freeman. 
     Winner: The veteran savvy of Moreland and Freeman, combined with Little's "win at all cost" attitude will propel this motley crew past the East Side Drug Kingpins to play the winner of the following...
Game Four, "The Top Brass": Ervin Burrell, William "Bill" Rawls and Cedric Daniels versus "The Free Agents": Reginald "Bubbles" Cousins, Dennis "Cutty" Wise and Brother Mouzone.
     Winner: Despite "Bubbles" falling asleep for about half the game after taking a full shot of heroin between his toes, "The Free Agents" end up destroying "The Top Brass," behind Cutty's interior strength and Brother Mouzone's ability to scare the living hell out of the competition.

Semifinal: "The Original West Side Crew" versus "The Corner Kids."
    Winner: Another lopsided win for Avon and the gang. At one point Wee-Bey even dunks on his own son Namond and shatters the backboard above him.  This leads to a finals match-up against the winner between the following...
Semifinal: "Every Man Must Have a Code" versus "The Free Agents".
    Winner: In a defensive battle, punctuated by a shootout between Omar and Brother Mouzone, "Every Man Must Have a Code" win in the last seconds.

Final: "The Original West Side Crew" versus "Every Man Must Have a Code".
    Winner: Avon and the gang get their revenge on Omar, something they were unable to do throughout the first three seasons of the critically acclaimed HBO series, and win in a rout.

So, in summation, The Original West Side Crew clearly represents the best basketball talent on The Wire, and I clearly need some clinical assistance.

Until next time.

Free Agency Frenzy

I realize it has been quite a while since my last post, and many people - namely my father, sister and closest friends - have been badgering me to update this woebegone web-log, so here is my best attempt, albeit a short post.

It goes without saying that this summer has been an active offseason for many NBA franchises. The first major move was the Atlanta Hawks shipping All-Star shooting guard Joe Johnson - and his albatross contract - to the New Jersey Nets for expiring deals. I feel this was a win-win deal. The New Jersey Nets obtained a top-flight 2-guard - which eventually allowed them to retain Deron Williams, the top free agent on the market this summer - while the Atlanta Hawks focused on rebuilding around Al Horford, Josh Smith, Jeff Teague, along with draft picks and salary cap space. This makes the Nets an immediately fun team to watch - along with the resigning of Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, and Brook Lopez, it allows the Nets to trot out a competitive, albeit defensively limited, starting five - and this allows the Hawks to avoid the undesirable fate of being a middling-playoff-eligible team with little upside, hamstrung by onerous contractual obligations. Along with the trade of Marvin Williams for Devin Harris - and his expiring contract - and a few minor deals to obtain shooters in Anthony Morrow and Kyle Korver, the Hawks will remain competitive enough to keep butts in the seats, but will have a tremendous amount of cap space next summer - or the following summer, should they decide to wait - when they will be able to make a play for a number of free agents.

The New York Knicks tried to one-up the Nets by making a splashy move for a point guard, but failed in courting Steve Nash. They eventually ended up trading with the Trail Blazers for Raymond Felton, Kurt Thomas, Kurt Thomas' walker and a nutritionist in the hopes of adding a starting point guard and some front court depth. This deal made little sense after the 'Bockers had just added free agent point guard Jason Kidd and center Marcus Camby, particularly the former, as he was brought in to tutor young Jeremy Lin. But, in traditional Jimmy Dolan fashion, the Knicks lost their most prized free agent in years, when they opted not to match the Houston Rockets' $25 million offer sheet for the Harvard prodigy. The Knicks' reasoning for letting the fan favorite - Lin - go, was that due to the new collective bargaining agreement, the Knicks would end up paying roughly $26 million for the third year of Lin's back-loaded deal. However, letting him walk - without compensation, I might add - made/makes little sense, as they were going to get two years out of Lin at the mid-level exception (around $5.6 million/year) and could have made a move thereafter to trade him. Now the Knicks have an aging lineup whose pieces do not seem to fit together. They are still capable of winning 50 games and a top-8 of Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler-Kidd-Shumpert-Camby is pretty strong. But I just don't like how they mortgaged their future for their present, particularly given the fact that their present is not that strong.

On the other end of the deal, the Rockets obtained a young point guard (Lin) who showed flashes of brilliance this season (even if the sample size was small). Nevertheless, the Rockets struck out in free agency, as their only other major acquisitions were Omer Asik (the former backup center for the Chicago Bulls) and swingman Carlos Delfino (who agreed to a one-year deal last week). The Rockets tried to go all-in to obtain Dwight Howard, but apparently they were unwilling to part with a number of their young assets - nor were they willing to take on as many bad contracts as originally advertised - to consummate the deal. As such, the Rockets lost two top-flight point guards in Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic and walked away with Jeremy Lin (an obvious downgrade) and a first round pick from the Toronto Raptors. Not bad, but not good either.

Meanwhile, the "Dwightmare" was eventually resolved two weeks ago when the apparently brain-dead general manager of the Orlando Magic agreed to ship Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers (shocker!) in a four team deal, wherein the Magic acquired Al Harrington and Aaron Afflalo from the Nuggets, Mo Harkless from the Philadelphia 76ers and first round picks from the aforementioned three teams. Meanwhile, the 76ers acquired LA big man Andrew Bynum, and shipped Andre Iguodala to the Denver Nuggets. I like this deal for everyone except Orlando. The Lakers now have a starting five of Howard-Gasol-World Peace-Bryant and the recently acquired Steve Nash (who was stolen away from Phoenix for the Lamar Odom trade exception and late-round picks) which will likely compete for the Larry O'Brien trophy late in to the post-season. Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets now have the fastest and most athletic team in the entire NBA, and can play defense too. With Kenneth Farried, JaVale McGee and Andre Iguodala, they have three great defenders to pair with sharp-shooter Danilo Gallinari and water bug point guard Ty Lawson. Their bench is deep, the air in Denver is thin, and George Karl is the master at getting the most out of his players. Expect this team to earn a top-3 seed in the Western Conference, and don't count them out come May and June. Finally, the 76ers got the second best big man in basketball, and offloaded Andre Iguodala (and his hefty contract) who had become redundant with Philadelphia's wealth of wing-talent. This deal makes Philadelphia an immediate contender in the Eastern Conference, where they will be able to claim the best big man in the conference, a versatile lineup, and some of the best coaching in Doug Collins.

The Boston Celtics made a curious move in giving Jeff Green $9 million dollars/year (I forget how long the contract lasts), but as a survivor of aortic surgery myself, I can't help but congratulate the guy for getting his. I hope he recovers from his year off, and is able to integrate back in to basketball. Along with Jason Terry, Avery Bradley, Kevin Garnett, Brandon Bass, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and rookie Jared Sullinger, the Celtics are going to be a sneaky-good team, capable of beating anyone and everyone on the right night. Look for Rondo to develop even better rapport with Bradley this season that he did last year, and expect Jason Terry to replace 90% of Ray Allen's shooting prowess, while also bringing the Celtics a capable ball-handler.

Meanwhile, Miami stole Ray Allen from the Celtics for little money, and then gave Rashard Lewis (who was amnestied by New Orleans) a small bag of cash and told him to spot up in the corner and not get lost on defense. The Heat had little wiggle-room in free-agency, but came away from it all with two premier shooters to surround their already-deadly troika of stars.

Speaking of New Orleans, they struck gold in the draft, landing Anthony "The Brow" Davis with the top overall selection, and adding Austin Rivers with the tenth pick in the draft. While the later is undoubtedly a project, who may or may not prove to be a bust, the former is a sure-thing. Davis will instantly transform the already-strong Hornet defense in to a juggernaut. Add to that the swap with Orlando (seriously what is going on in Central Florida?) of Gustavo Ayon for Ryan Anderson and his sweet shooting, and the Hornets are really making some great moves for the future. I think they deserve perhaps the highest marks for their off-season additions.

Toronto, like New York, went all-in for Steve Nash, even so far as to make a ludicrous offer for Landry Fields, in hopes of blocking a sign-and-trade between New York and Phoenix, only to see it all explode in their face when Nash shocked the world and moved a few hours west to Los Angeles. The (C)Raptors ended up with Landry Fields and Kyle Lowry. I like Lowry (even if it meant surrendering a likely lottery pick), but Fields is going to be making way too much money for what he brings to the team. Hopefully, Jonas Valuncinas can improve upon his showing at the 2012 London Olympics and make an immediate impact for Toronto. Otherwise, this franchise is screwed.

Orlando continued to make curious (read: HORRIBLE) moves, when they re-upped mid-tier point guard Jameer Nelson for another three years. I don't get why they are adding payroll when they are trying to rebuild. My only explanation for this is that new General Manager Rob Hennigan went to the Billy King/Billy Knight/David Khan school of franchise management. Orlando will be bad for a while, trust me.

The Bobcats did very little in free agency, which doesn't really matter, because they were going to be bad this coming season one way or another. By adding Ben Gordon, they got another combo-guard who looks for his own shot and rarely moves the basketball. The upside to that is that they also received a first-round pick from Detroit (who acquired Corey Maggette, another black hole if ever there was one) so hopefully Charlotte can compete with Washington (another team that did little in free agency) and Orlando to see who can win the lottery over the next few seasons.

While on the topic of the Washington Wizards, why they decided to trade for over-paid players in Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza, rather than merely amnestying Rashard Lewis (over Andray Blatche and his penchant for hookers) boggles my mind. I thought Ted Leonsis was committed to the future with guys like John Wall, Bradley Beal, that European dude whose name I can't spell, Chris Singleton and Kevan Seraphin? It is quite clear to me that Miami will be owning the Southeast Division for quite a while.

The Central Division might have seen the least action in all. The Bulls let just about their entire bench go when it became clear that Derrick Rose would be out for a majority of the coming season. While they retained their core (Rose-Boozer-Deng-Noah-Gibson) they lost pretty much every other contributor, and will likely take a major step back this season. The Cavaliers overreached for Dion Waiters and made no big moves in free agency, while Milwaukee got another thin big man in John Henson and resigned their own guy, Ersan Ilyasova. Adding Samuel Dalembert was also a nice move for the Bucks, who might be a sleeper pick to win the Central Division were it not for the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers made some bone-headed moves of their own (like trading Darren Collison for the right to overpay Ian Mahinmi) they locked up Roy Hibbert (after Portland made him a solid offer) as well as George Hill (who will be slightly overpaid for the next half-decade.) I imagine Indy is eventually going to move Danny Granger, particularly with Paul George coming in to his own, but for now, they are a top-4 squad in the Eastern Conference, and a tough-out in the playoffs.

The Lakers were the big winners in the West with the acquisition of Howard and Nash. Add to that Antawn Jamison, who got the same deal that the Heat offered Rashard Lewis, and Jodie Meeks, who will be playing on a contract that is likely below market-value, and the Lakers suddenly went from aging veterans to title contenders overnight. They were also able to resign late-season contributor Jordan Hill to a team-friendly contract, and acquire Darius Johnson-Odom (out of Marquette) from Dallas on draft night. I like Johnson-Odom, and see a bit of Derek Fisher in him. If he can give them anything this season, that is like finding money on the ground. Meanwhile, the Suns acquired Goran Dragic, bringing him in for a second run with the franchise, and forward Michael Beasley. They lost Josh Childress (he was amnesthitized) and Brook Lopez (traded to New Orleans along with Hakim Warrick) but they also kept a lot of cap space for a future run at James "The Beard" Harden. The Clippers brought back Chauncey Billups, who is still rehabbing from an Achilles tear, signed Jamal Crawford, shipped out Mo Williams and added front-court depth by acquiring Lamar Odom and Ryan Hollins. With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both coming off of injuries (not to mention Billups) the Clippers will need to lean on their bench for help in November. The Kings did very little, other than threaten to leave for Virginia Beach (really?) and the Warriors resigned their own free agents, made a cagey deal in dumping Dorrell Wright for Jarret Jack, and swung a nice haul in the draft, particularly with their choice at number seven, Harrison Barnes.

The Jazz dealt Devin Harris for Marvin Williams, instantly upgrading their wing depth, and brought in Mo Williams (who was part of the three team deal with Dallas and the LA Clippers). The Thunder signed Hasheem Thabeet, with the intention of turning him in to a real basketball player, and stole Perry Jones (assuming he stays healthy) with the 28th pick in the first round. They also resigned Serge Ibaka to a 4-year, $48 million deal, assuring that they keep at least three of their four core guys together for the next few years. The Timberwolves signed Andrei Kirilenko, Olympic standout Alexy Shved, and Dolph Lundgren and are expected to play what Kevin Love dubbed "euro ball." I foresee a lot of complaining to the referees, cheap shots, the singing of the Russian national anthem, and an eventual trade of Kevin Love to a major media market. The Trail Blazers nabbed Damion Lillard and Myers Leonard in the first round and resigned Nicholas Batum for a contract they will eventually regret. They took one step forward, and two steps back.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks, after being spurned by Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Dwight Howard, and pretty much everyone else, claimed Elton Brand off of the amnesty waivers, added German-citizen Chris Kaman, O.J. Mayo (on a deal that is only guaranteed for one year) and the aforementioned Darren Collison. These are clearly stop-gap measures meant to keep Dallas on the precipice of the playoff picture, without capsizing their future ambitions of rebuilding with top-flight talent. San Antonio resigned Tim Duncan to a three-year, $30 million deal, re-upped Boris Diaw and the twins, and kept their core pretty much intact. They still have some game in them, and anyone who counts them out is an idiot. The Memphis Grizzlies let Mayo walk, and replaced him with Jerryd Bayless, resigned their back-up big man (DARREL ARTHUR!!!) and kept the status quo.

All in all, it was an active off-season. I hope to write more soon, particularly with everything that has gone on in the NBA and basketball this summer, so stay tuned for more regular blog posts.

Five Easy Pieces

The San Antonio Spurs are a great team. I am not the first person to say this, and I won't be the last. But, as in many past seasons, they are also the most overlooked team, a team that continually sneaks up on their opponents, wins games at all costs, and enters the playoffs as perhaps the healthiest team, and, in the writer's estimation, the favorite to bring the Larry O'Brien trophy back to the Alamo City.

Now, I realize that Las Vegas has Miami, Chicago, and Oklahoma City as the odds on favorites to win the title (respectively they are set at 7-5, 3-1 and 3-1.) However, the Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks are also two of the top-seven favorites according to Sin City, so take those odds with a large grain of salt. However, it is more than odds when it comes time for the playoffs. It is about personnel, health, coaching, experience and match-ups. And, when it comes to the San Antonio Spurs, they score an A+ in all of the categories they can actually control (match-ups will come down to the end of the season and is outside the Spurs' power.)

The reason this post is titled "Five Easy Pieces" has nothing to do with Jack Nicholson (though it might if the Spurs and Lakers face off in a second-round match-up). No, the title of this post refers to the Spurs personnel, and their rabbi, Greg Popovich. Over the past 10 years in the NBA, no coach has succeeded as much as Popovich with limited role players, a smaller budget, and a brand of basketball that many have written off as stodgy and boring. But, the Spurs keep on trucking, they keep on winning, and right now they are on pace to win their second consecutive #1 seed in the Western Conference.

The reason for the Spurs success is no secret, their players buy in to Popovich's system, they play fundamentally sound basketball, everyone knows their role, they have a great and stoic leader (Tim Duncan), and they have players who are willing to sacrifice their own talents for the success of the team. None of this is new. In fact, the New York Times described in detail just last week how successful the relationship between Duncan and Popovich has been over the years, because the two are selfless individuals, focused more on wins, than style.

Right now, the Spurs have one of the league's hottest players in Tony Parker. He is a speedy point guard who has become the focal point of their offense, and has improved as a defender to the point where he will not be over-matched by "top-tier" point guards like Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. The Spurs have the luxury of bringing Manu Ginobili off the bench, a player who provides dynamic offense, can shoot from anywhere, defends well, and brings an intensity that has not been seen from a South American since Pablo Escobar did this. The Spurs have quality big men in DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter. Quality wing players who are "jack-of-all-trades" in Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green and Gary Neal. Wild card back-up players in Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw. And lastly, a dynamic big man who stretches the floor and opens up driving lanes for the guards, in Matt Bonner.

The Spurs are rested. Lately, none of their players have spent more than 30 minutes a night on the floor, and the statistics are different each night. One night Parker is the engine, the next night Duncan puts up a vintage 22 and 13 with 3 blocks, 3 steals and 5 assists, and on another night Manu Ginobili goes perfect from the line, shoots over 50% from the field and scores 20+ points. These guys are just easy-going pieces who are interchangeable and unaffected by egos.

It should be reiterated that it starts at the top with their laid-back, Pinot-snob coach who can use his players like chess pieces, making substitutions on the fly and making beautiful music with each victory, in the regular season and the post season.

For all the flash that the Big Three in Miami bring, all the hype about the best 1-2 punch in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, and the top-overall seed Chicago Bulls, the San Antonio Spurs are my pick to win the NBA Finals this season. Two weeks from now, they could be losing a series to the Memphis Grizzlies, Los Angeles Lakers, or Dallas Mavericks. But, when you have selfless players, a brilliant coach, and talent at every position, I highly doubt they will bend, or break.

NBA Playoff Picks:

Eastern Conference:
Chicago, Miami, Indiana and Boston advance to the second round.
Chicago and Miami advance to the ECF.
Chicago wins the East.


Western Conference:
San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies advance to the second round.
San Antonio and OKC advance to the WCF.
San Antonio wins the West.

San Antonio over Chicago in six games.

Linsanity, Fake Laker Trades, and Yet Another Inequity in the NBA

Linsanity
These days I cannot go an hour without texting/tweeting/emailing and/or chatting to a friend about Jeremy Lin. I will not try to recap everything he has done over the past week and a half - as I am pretty sure ESPN has beat that one to death - but I am very impressed with his play, his composure, and what he means to the sport and to society. America is desperate for a "winning story" these days. We saw it a few months back with "Tebowmania," but I think - at least if Lin continues to propel the New York Knickerbockers to victory - that Lin's story is on a totally different level. As Bill Simmons points out in mailbag today, Tebow was a stud athlete on every level, and was not exactly overlooked. Lin was overlooked, twice, this past summer, and one time it was by one of the headiest general managers in the NBA - Daryl Morey. Like Tebow, Lin is a high-character individual and a devout Christian. Like Tebow he is also a winner. However, what Lin has done to differentiate himself from Tebow is put up jaw-dropping numbers, while at the same time continually leading his team to Ws. Add to that the fact that he is the first Asian-American player in the NBA, and you have the perfect Disney sports movie lined up. But for the fact that Asian-Americans are marginalized in Hollywood, Disney would already be shooting this movie.

With all the negative stories that come out of the sports world, it is refreshing that sports fans have been treated to not one, but two, stories about underdogs who take the reins of a woebegone franchise, and lead them to victory. But, unless Tim Tebow comes back next season and starts completing passes, and making his teammates better - as Lin does night in and night out - Lin is the more sensational story.  (Side note: I think the Lin-Tebow story is ripe for parody. Wouldn't they break the unintentional comedy scale as a "buddy cop duo?")

Fake Trades
I have a lot of friends who are fans of the Los Angeles Lakers. I am also a fan of the L.A. Lakers, though my fandom is a bit more tempered than my comrades who cry every time the purple and gold lose. From what I understand, a lot of people in L.A. are clamoring for the Lakers to make a big move, setting them up to be in a position to contend for the NBA Title this season (let's face it, as currently constructed, the Lakers are not going to win a title.) I am of the mindset that the Lakers should actually try not to make the playoffs, thereby securing a lottery pick, in the best draft in years. Taking that logic one step further, this would likely allow the Dallas Mavericks to make the playoffs, thereby sending their 2012 first round pick (top-20 protected) to the Lakers. Were the Lakers to have, say, the 14th and the 21st pick in a loaded draft, I can easily see them landing two stud players who, combined with other young talent, like Andrew Bynum, could have a lasting impact on a franchise that needs to remain relevant (particularly in a town that is turning toward Clipperdom.)

Nevertheless, Laker fans want to win now. And, with that in mind, I have constructed a few trades - some of which you have likely seen before - that the Lakers could/should make, to ensure victory this season (and perhaps in the future.)

Trade #1: Something Realistic

Lakers Get: Luis Scola (HOU), Dwight Howard (ORL) and Hedo Turkoglu. Scola replaces 70% of what Pau Gasol does. Howard is an upgrade from Andrew Bynum. Turkoglu, gives the Lakers some much needed outside shooting, and ball handling, and allows the Lakers to have a trigger-man on offense (something they have been sorely lacking since Odom was sent to Dallas.)

Rockets Get: Pau Gasol (LAL). The Rockets need a star, and they get a star. They now have a strong starting-five of Kyle Lowry, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger, Pau Gasol, Samuel Dalembert with a lot of young assets.

Magic Get: Andrew Bynum (LAL) and Kevin Martin (HOU). The Magic are going to lose Dwight, so why not get a strong center to replace 80% of what he does (and, shh, this is a secret: he's an upgrade on the offensive end) and a stud shooting guard to boot. The Magic can essentially run the same offense with Bynum that they do with Howard, and now they can look to move some of their flotsam (Jason Richardson's miserably new contract comes to mind, as does Chris Duhon) while already ridding themselves of Turkoglu's nasty deal. This allows them to amnesty one of the aforementioned toxic assets (Richardson, Duhon, maybe even Nelson)

Trade #2: Lakers' Fans Wet Dream

Lakers Get: Deron Williams (NJ) and Dwight Howard (ORL). They automatically have the best three-man core in the NBA with a great distributor/scorer (Williams), elite scorer (Bryant) and elite rebounder/defender (Howard.) Enough said. It is not happening though. So cool your jets Laker fans.

Nets Get: Pau Gasol (LAL). If the Nets do not get Howard this season, Williams is going to Dallas (the worst kept secret in the NBA.) So, why not get rid of him now, and get an All-NBA power forward to play alongside Brook Lopez when he is healthy.

Magic Get: Andrew Bynum (LAL). See above.

Trade #3: Building for the Future

Lakers Get: Josh Smith (ATL), Michael Beasley (MIN), Derrick Williams (MIN), Malcolm Lee (MIN) and Minnesota's 2013 First Round Pick. The Lakers get younger at power forward (Smith) and establish more of a defensive mindset in doing so. They also acquire a young combo-forward (Williams) who looks to have a promising career in the NBA, and will be an upgrade over the Metta World Peace-Walton-Ebanks-Barnes Pu-Pu platter at the small forward position. They get a young point guard (Lee) who may give them something, and another asset (Minny's 2013 1st-Rounder) that may help them down the road. Beasley is a risk worth taking, as he might be able to provide a spark off the bench for a team in desperate need of a bench presence, and they would own his Bird rights, thereby allowing them to resign him for a franchise-friendly number. I think this is a big win for the Lakers as they also free themselves of Walton's contract, allowing them to amnesty Metta World Peace.

Timberwolves Get: Pau Gasol (LAL) and the Lakers 2012 2nd Round Draft Pick. They trade a bunch of small pieces - many of whom do not fit together - for a stud big man, who gets to reunite with his countryman (Rubio) and another strong big man (Love - who plays further from the basket, thereby allowing Gasol to operate below the free-throw line) on a team run by an offensive genius (Rick Adelman.) They would have a strong core with Rubio-Love-Gasol and spare parts, and maybe they strike gold with a couple of 2nd round picks down the road.

Hawks Get: Luke Walton (LAL), Anthony Randolph (MIN) and Nikola Pekovic (MIN). The Hawks get rid of a big contract (because Joe Johnson is virtually unmovable, Smith has to be the one to go) and immediately amnesty Walton, thereby picking up two young assets in Randolph and Pekovic. Pekovic is a starting-caliber center, who, paired with Horford, would combine to make a formidable front court. Randolph is still young, and still has upside, and could be a jack-of-all trades for a team that desperately needs something new. The big win here for Atlanta is moving Horford to his natural position of power forward, when he returns from injury, and absolving itself of nearly $10 million in contract guarantees.

Finishing Note: NBA Inequities
The NBA is a league of have and have nots. Just look at the disparity in talent between the Charlotte Bobcats and the Miami Heat. Case closed. However, what bothers me, is that a team can buy out a player, and that the same player can then go ahead and play for the team of his choosing, essentially making two salaries. In this case, the player is Chris Kaman, who is rumored to be heading to Miami after a buyout from the New Orleans Hornets. While this move would, in my opinion, guarantee the Heat the championship this season (Kaman is a great low-post player and rebounder and a competent defensive big man) the bigger issue is that the Hornets (who, by the way are owned by the NBA) would be giving up one of the biggest assets they acquired from the LA Clippers (in the Chris Paul deal) for nothing. Sure, they might save a million dollars or so, but wasn't the hold up on the Chris Paul deal always about inequity? Given that Eric Gordon is out for the season (and seemingly never healthy) and unlikely to sign with the Hornets for the long term; that Al-Farouq Aminu is a bit player; and that the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Pick is likely going to be a late-lottery pick at best, how is the Clipper's accepted-offer for Chris Paul in any way, shape or form, better than what the Lakers/Rockets could have guaranteed.

Now, one of the primary pieces from that deal is going to be bought out of his deal (allowing him to walk away with 90% of what he is owed) and the league-owned Hornets will be left with squat.

Sometimes the NBA makes me happy, and proud, to be a fan (see: Lin, Jeremy). Other times, I am able to see through the facade of bullshit that continually comes out of the league office, which ruins the integrity of the sport.

All Star Selections

With few exceptions in the sports world, nothing angers me more than the "fan vote" for the All-Star team. This seemingly harmless idea resulted in players like Steve Francis and Tracy McGrady consistently being voted to start for the Western Conference in the annual inter-conference layup line that is the All-Star game (though much of that has to do with Yao Ming's success in the NBA and David Stern allowing international fans to vote as well... as if the Chinese manipulating their currency and owning half of our debt wasn't enough, they force us to endure "Stevie Franchise" as an All-Star starter?)

Knowing this, I was not surprised when the All-Star starters were announced last week. The Eastern Conference will feature Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade in the back court and LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard up front. Aside from Anthony (more on him later) all of these choices make sense. Derrick Rose is arguably the best point guard in the NBA (it's either him or Chris Paul, who will be starting for the Western Conference) while James and Howard are the best players at their respective positions. Despite missing a good deal of time earlier this season, Wade is still the best shooting guard east of The Staples Center.

The Western Conference will pit the dynamic Laker back court of Kobe Bryant and the aforementioned Chris Paul, while Andrew Bynum, Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin round out the starting five. With the exception of Griffin, the Western starters all make sense. Andrew Bynum is the second best best pure center in the game, plain and simple. Outside of LeBron James, Kevin Durant is the best small forward. As for the best guards in the NBA, I think a two-on-two match up pitting Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul against Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose - with bragging rights on the line - would be incredibly entertaining. As with the Eastern squad, the Western Conference team left me with only one question mark: Blake Griffin?

Let's start out east with Carmelo Anthony. While no one can realistically deny his talent, Carmelo Anthony is not a worthy starter. He is currently shooting worse than 40.0% from the field, and below 30.0% from behind the three-point line. His 22.3 points and 5.9 rebounds per game is his lowest since his sophomore season in the league. Add to that the fact that he is an atrocious defender and is not a power forward, and it is quite clear that this spot is best reserved for someone else. And that someone, at least in my humble opinion, is Chris Bosh. Unlike Anthony, Bosh has played in every one of his team's games, and has done so in an incredibly efficient manner (averaging over 19 points and nearly 8 boards a night, while shooting over 50.0% from the field.) Bear in mind that Bosh is posting said averages while playing "third fiddle" on a very strong Miami Heat team, while Anthony is the number one option on a 8-13 Knicks team that will not be a contender for anything this Spring.

On the left coast, Blake Griffin is starting because he is a human highlight reel. His 21 point-11 rebound/game average is nice, but he is a woeful defender, and is being outplayed by a worthy adversary who have been overlooked. Kevin Love, averaging 25 points and nearly 14 rebounds per game while shooting over 37% from beyond the three-point arc, has vastly improved as a defender, and is no longer a liability on that end of the floor for the Minnesota Timberwolves. His team is also on the verge of playoff contention, and it didn't require adding an all-world point guard (Paul) to ensure that his team would be competitive this year.

Comparing Anthony with Bosh and Griffin with Love, it is quite clear why Carmelo and Blake were selected... they are brand names, and while Bosh and Love provide a lot of no-nonsense, winning plays, they do not play with as much flash as Anthony and Griffin. Given that it is an all-star game, I suppose I can live with that justification. 

Soon the coaches will have their chance to fill out the remaining seven roster spots for each conference. Given that it is their job to know, coaches tend to have a better handle on who is truly deserving of being selected to an all-star team. Nevertheless, I have made it my job to comment on everything-NBA, and below I have made my selections for the Eastern and Western Conference reserves. I have accounted for little more than player statistics and the system they play in, and I have tried to discount career numbers and players that fit a certain position. Comment as you want, deride as you may, but I firmly believe these reserves are deserving of a trip to Orlando later this month.

Eastern Conference Reserves:
Guards: Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams and Brandon Jennings. The first two were no-brainers. But Jennings' personal success this season has really helped Milwaukee in Bogut's absence.

Forwards: Andre Iguodala, Paul Pierce and Chris Bosh. Iguodala was the toughest choice of the three, but I feel that he has been a more integral player in his team's success this season than Luol Deng, the only other forward I gave heavy consideration to.

Center: Roy Hibbert. With appologies to Tyson Chandler, the Indiana Pacers have played beyond expectations this season, and Hibbert is a big reason why. Additionally, an 8-13 Knicks team really does not need more than one representative at the All-Star game.

Western Conference Reserves:
Guards: Russell Westbrook, Steve Nash and Tony Parker. While Nash is the only "pure" point guard of the three, all have excelled this season, and all three deserve a spot on the Western Conference bench.

Forwards: Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol. All three could start (though Gasol is definitely on the decline) and all three will get a lot of burn in Orlando.

Center: Marc Gasol. He has been able to hold down the fort in Zach Randolph's absence from Memphis, and his numbers back up the story. Without him, Memphis would be a very mediocre team.