It has been a while since I posted anything, and I completely dropped the ball on my initial playoff predictions. Thankfully, every team I thought would advance did, with the exception of the Orlando Magic, who really pissed the bed against the Atlanta Hawks (and yes, I did think the Memphis Grizzlies would upset the San Antonio Spurs!) With that said, I am only making my picks for the Conference Semifinals, as it would be foolhardy to pick the ensuing rounds, particularly given some of the upsets that have occurred to this point.
Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks
Pick: Bulls in 5
Had Kirk Hinrich been ready to go for this series, I truly believe the Hawks could have pushed the Bulls to six or seven games. Without him, the Hawks simply do not have the defensive personnel to contain Derrick Rose, and that is the key to this series. The Hawks big men (Josh Smith, Al Horford, and their pu-pu platter of centers) should be able to get theirs against the Bulls (particularly if they go at Boozer, who has looked very soft of late) but the Hawks will likely shoot their way out of many games, just as they shot their way in to many games in the previous round. I expect the Bulls to win a few of these games in dramatic fashion, and the others will likely be blowouts.
Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics
Pick: Celtics in 7
I am bucking what has become the common line of thinking recently in picking the Boston Celtics. Sure, they have looked pretty pedestrian since trading Kendrick Perkins. Yes, the big-three are all beginning to show their age. And yes, Rondo is a liability on offense in the half court. Having said that, their is something about the Boston defense that really messes with the Miami players. Wade shot under 30% against the Celtics this season, LeBron's isolation-offense plays right in to the hands of the Celtics' strong-side defensive schemes, and Bosh should be neutralized by KG's aggressive - and often times offensive - brand of defense and heckling. In the end, Rondo is the key to this series. If he is able to get the Celtics running, and make their offense move more in the open court than in the half court, the Celtics should be able to win this series. Additionally, if he can put some of those gaudy stat-lines we had grown accustomed to from him, he should be able to do just enough to get Boston back to the Conference Finals.
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Memphis Grizzlies
Pick: Thunder in 7
First and foremost, I think we can all agree that the Memphis Grizzlies are far and away the "crunkest" team to ever make it this far in the NBA Playoffs. They play with a swagger and a chip on their shoulder unseen in the NBA for a long time. Their defensive intensity (they led the league in steals per game this season) allows them to foil some of the best offensive schemes, and their strength inside - anchored by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol - is unparalleled outside of Los Angeles. The Grizz should have the ability to put lock down defenders on Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant with Tony Allen and Shane Battier respectively drawing the assignments. Nevertheless, unless one of the teams is incredibly cohesive - a la the Boston Celtics - it is always safe to take the team with the best player to win the series. Kevin Durant is the best player in this series and he should be able to get his and the other Thunder players should be able to do enough to get them one step closer to a possible rematch of last year's first round series with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers v. Dallas Mavericks
Pick: Lakers in 6
I am always weary of the Lakers falling asleep and taking their foot off the gas, but I just don't see the Mavericks being able to beat LA four times. The point guard match-up is not that much of an advantage for the Mavericks, as Jason Kidd as regressed enough that the Lakers can match up with Derek Fisher. Kobe is likely going to obliterate whomever defends him (DeShawn Stevenson, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, whomever). Ron Artest should be able to pester Marion and at times Nowitzki enough that his minutes are worthwhile, and the Lakers will likely own the paint with their twin towers. A lot will come down to who plays better off the bench, Lamar Odom, or Jason Terry. Terry is a gamer, and has always hit timely shots for the Mavericks, but Odom is the more versatile player, and the better defender and rebounder, and at this stage in the season, championships are won with defense and rebounding. I think the Lakers will be thrown off at times by the Mavericks' use of the zone, but they should prevail after a hiccup or two and be able to return to the Conference Finals for the fourth consecutive season.
