Halfway Home: Midterm Rankings

We are roughly half way through the NBA regular season, and the first 41 games of the season has allowed us to separate the wheat from the chaff.  With that in mind, I have decided to offer up my first edition of the NBA Power Rankings, beginning with the worst teams, and finishing with those teams that have looked the best thus far.  Given that Bill Simmons is my favorite basketball writer, I thought I might offer up an homage in the divisions I assign these various teams to.  So, without further adieu, I present to you, the rankings...

The P.J. Carlesimo Divsion

These teams are all either falling apart, or have already exploded monumentally.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers: Everyone expected the Cavaliers to be hurting after LeBron "took his talents to South Beach," but I cannot imagine anyone thought they would be this horrid.  Losers of 14 straight, and 23 out of their last 24, the Cavaliers post a -11.3 scoring margin, nearly five points worse than the next-to-last team.  They have little talent on their team, no young prizes to develop, and they are saddled by long-term contracts that will haunt them for the next two to three seasons. At least Cleveland has this going for them: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysmLA5TqbIY

29. Sacramento Kings: I liked Tyreke Evans a lot more as a rookie than I do now, though I understand that he has been playing at about 75% for the past month.  DeMarcus Cousins is starting to come on strong, and, if he can keep his attitude in check (this has been a knock on him since he was in high school) he should develop in to a pretty strong low-post player.  Having said that, the Kings are a team in flux, both as a franchise - with rumors swirling that they might leave Sacramento - and a team - they have yet to develop any identity.  I imagine they will be an active team around the February trade deadline, as they have a number of expiring contracts (Dalembert and Landry) and interesting pieces (Casspi) that other teams might be interested in.

28. Washington Wizards: John Wall hit the proverbial rookie wall a few weeks ago after coming back from a prolonged injury.  Now that Blake Griffin is tearing the league apart, the best thing Wall can do is focus on becoming a true triple-threat and not worry about the rookie of the year race.  Like the Kings, the Wizards are a team in flux, but unlike the Kings, the Wizards have a coach (Flip Saunders) who has shown himself to be capable of developing young talent, and building a winner.

27. Toronto Raptors: Another team that has experienced the burn of a an all-star leaving town and getting nothing in the way of compensation, the Raptors - unlike the Cavaliers - are at least showing some pride; even if they are ceding nearly 105 points per game. Thankfully, the Raptors, like the rest of the teams in this division, get very little play on television, which is a godsend for NBA fans everywhere.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves: Like most serious NBA fans, I am amazed at Kevin Love's ability to continually pull down double-digit boards and make rebounding cool.  What few people realize though is that Love is averaging over 21 points per game, shooting 47% from the field, 87% from the line, and 44% from 3-Point range.  Love's 15.6 rebounds per game is the highest per game average since Dennis Rodman in the late 1990s with the Chicago Bulls.  The Timberwolves are incredibly lucky to have a player of his caliber on their roster.  Unfortunately, that is where the T-Wolves luck begins and ends.

25. Detroit Pistons: Perhaps the most "blah" team in the Association, the Pistons have few wins to show for a roster that runs them around $66 million this season.  Their only young talent is rookie Greg Monroe, and he is only getting around 22 minutes of burn every night.  Thankfully, Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva are under contract for another three years and $60 million.  Joe Dumars, where Amazing Happens!!!


The Mo Cheeks Division 

These squads are neither in rebuilding mode, nor good enough to make waves in the post-season.  They are stuck in that all-too-common position that Mo Cheeks' teams continually found themselves; the middle.

24. New Jersey Nets: The only interesting thing about the New Jersey Nets this season has been the constant drama centering on whether or not they will pull the trigger and trade for Carmelo Anthony.  As of now, the deal is off (according to their owner) and the team seems set on building on what they have.  While rookie Derrick Favors appears to be a diamond in the rough, third year center Brook Lopez has taken a big step back from his breakout second season.  The Nets spent a decent amount of money in the off-season on middling talent like Travis Outlaw, Jordan Farmar and Johan Petro.  Avery Johnson is a good coach, but he appears to have rubbed some more of his players the wrong way (see: Murphy, Troy) and I wonder whether this team will ever get going again.

23. Golden State Warriors: Many of my friends in the Bay Area insist that the Warriors are a year away from being a playoff team.  I have been hearing that for years, and for years the Warriors have been letting their fans down.  Steph Curry, David Lee and Monta Ellis are a nice core to build around, but without bona fide defenders surrounding them, they will be destined to finish towards the bottom of the league in every defensive category.

22. Phoenix Suns: I feel bad for Steve Nash. The scrappy Canadian is a sure fire first-ballot hall of famer, and he is wasting his final years on a Suns team that is going nowhere. I blame Robert Sarver for all of this. Due to his penny-pinching ways, the Suns have missed out on so many talented players that it is just not fair to Phoenix fans to list them here.  I hope, for Nash' sake, that he is traded to a contender (Atlanta makes sense: Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford for Nash and a portion of the trade exception created from the Amare Stoudemire departure works under the salary cap) and does not have to play out the end of his career on a team that does not allow him to showcase his amazing "court vision" to its fullest.

21. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin, Blake Griffin.  He is the best rookie in years, and is the perfect cornerstone around which a team can build.  Eric Gordon has shown himself to be a great two-guard (if a bit undersized), DeAndre Jordan was a draft day steal, Baron Davis has shown signs of life, and they have valuable trade chips in Chris Kaman and rookie Al-Farouq Aminu.  Somehow, someway, Donald Sterling will find a way to screw this up.  It's sad.

20. Philadelphia 76ers:  I will never forgive Doug Collins for dyeing his hair blond during the 2007 NBA Playoffs when he was announcing games for TNT.  That being said, he has done a great job thus far this season in helping to instill a winning attitude in the 76ers franchise.  While he team may have whiffed on rookie Evan Turner, they have a stud in second-year guard Jrue Holiday, and they can certainly fetch something of value- even if it is just salary cap relief - in a trade for Andre Iguodala.  Given the way they ended the season last year, and the malaise the franchise has been mired in for the past four to five seasons, things are looking up for Philly, even if they are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs.

19. Milwaukee Bucks: This team has been dealing with injuries for what seems like 18 months, but without Brandon Jennings in the lineup Milwaukee has really taken a dip. Unless they can muster up a decent winning streak during the second half of the season, nobody will be "fearing the deer" come April.  On second thought, what am I saying? The Bucks are a half game out of the playoffs in the East, and something tells me that either the Bobcats or the Pacers are going to blow it big over the next few months.  Put it down now, the Bucks will make the postseason. 

The Paul Silas Division:
Teams on the bubble of making the playoffs, they have zero chance of advancing, and it is unclear where these franchises are heading.

18. Charlotte Bobcats: Larry Brown once again left a team at their lowest moment, and no one should be surprised by his recent comments suggesting he is interested in coaching again. Paul Silas has done an admirable job helping to turn the team around for the time being, but this franchise is really going nowhere.  They lost Raymond Felton to New York this past summer in free agency, and now that D.J. Augustin has been given the reigns Charlotte's offense has staggered even more.  They have no front court, their best players are either unhappy (Stephen Jackson) or constantly injured (Gerald Wallace) and their front office - led by His Airness - is a complete mess.  While they might sneak in to the playoffs, given the decrepit teams at the bottom of the East standings, the franchise has little going for it moving forward. 

17. Indiana Pacers: For the first six weeks of the season, the Indiana Pacers looked they had finally figured things out. Roy Hibbert was a beast inside, Darren Collison was playing like a top-flight point guard, and the Pacers were winning against good teams.  Since then, Hibbert and Collison have hit a wall, Danny Granger has been the most disappointing "franchise player," they have not found a way to solve the power forward position (Tyler Hansborough and Josh McRoberts is not a good start), and Jim O'Brien seems to have lost control of the team.  What the Pacers do have going for them is a ton of cap space moving forward.  They have nearly $34 million in expiring contracts and could dangle Danny Granger to a team looking to upgrade on the wing.  One deal that makes sense for both teams would be for the Pacers to trade Granger and a 2011 2nd round pick to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green, Morris Peterson's expiring deal, and a 2011 1st round pick.  The Pacers would reunite the 2007 Georgetown front court, would save more money for the next few years, and would finally solve their power forward problem.  Of course, that trade - which would also allow the Thunder to land a premier outside shooter and wing defender - makes too much sense to actually come to fruition. 

16. Denver Nuggets: Rather than trade Carmelo Anthony, why not follow the path the Lakers took in 2007 when Kobe Bryant made a similar demand.  A package of Kenyon Martin ($16.5 million expiring contract), Aaron Afflalo (an incredibly efficient defender who can play lock down defense on the wing) and Anthony Carter, along with a draft pick, could land them David West, Willie Green and Trevor Ariza. Even if Carmelo were to walk in the summer, the Nuggets could rebuild with Nene and West up front, Ty Lawson, Ariza, Billups and whatever they can get in a package for Melo (who will likely have to opt for a sign-and-trade after all). Supposing they eventually make a deal with the Knicks after the season ends, they could add players like Landry Fields, Wilson Chandler, and a 1st rounder to the aforementioned core.  Or, they could trade Carmelo for 50 cents on the dollar and doom themselves to mediocrity for years to come. 

15. Portland Trail Blazers: I live about two hours north of the City of Roses, and I am absolutely scared to death of going there for one reason: I am pretty sure my body would break down the moment I stepped out of the car.  We all know what happened to Greg Oden, but now Brandon Roy is out - and quite possibly for a very long time given his health concerns - and their other centers (Camby and Pryzbilla) are also battling lingering injuries. Much like Houston, this team still finds a way to win, but all that winning won't help them come April, when they will need to beat a team like the Spurs or the Lakers to advance to the second round of the playoffs.  


14.  New Orleans Hornets: Did you know that this team is currently tied for third in the Western Conference? Neither did I until I checked the standings earlier today.  The only stories we here coming out of NOLA center on Chris Paul's eventual departure, and the possible relocation of the team.  However, Monty Williams has done a hell of a job getting the most out of his roster, and Chris Paul has had another great season.  The question remains, is this team good enough to win a playoff series? Right now I would take the Spurs, Lakers, Thunder, Mavericks and Jazz over the Hornets, and New Orleans is not good enough to land a top-2 spot and host the Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Grizzlies or Rockets.  Furthermore, all the speculation as to what is going to happen with the franchise does not bode well for their future.  My guess: they eventually bite the bullet and trade Chris Paul for a package of draft picks and cap space and move to a city like Kansas City or San Jose.


The Mike Fratello Division:
Teams likely to advance to the playoffs, but unlikely to advance in the second season.


13. Memphis Grizzlies: The O.J. Mayo - Tony Allen story, wherein the two reportedly got in to an altercation on the team plane over a gambling debt, brought back ominous memories of the Washington Wizards last year.  Thankfully, the Grizzlies on the court are a lot better than they are off the court.  Zach Randolph is once again proving his doubters wrong, averaging a double-double, Mike Conley has finally proven himself capable of being a starting point guard in the NBA, and Rudy Gay has justified the bloated contract that Memphis gave him in the off season.  Add to that a quality starting center in Marc Gasol, and a bevvy of 2-guards who can bring different things to the table in Xavier Henry and the aforementioned Allen and O.J. Mayo has become somewhat expendable, particularly when you consider that the Griz will have to resign Mayo, Gasol, and Randolph this coming summer.  If they can move Mayo - say to Chicago for Taj Gibson and Charlotte's 2011 first round pick - the Griz could move forward with a quality core of 7 players, and develop their projects (remember that guy named Hasheem Thabeet?) As it stands right now, the Griz are three games out of the Western Conference Playoffs and playing the best basketball they have played in years.  If the Nuggets and/or Trail Blazers stumble, their loss could be Memphis' gain.


12. Houston Rockets: You have to feel for the Rockets. They have invested so much of their identity in Yao Ming, and the poor guy just cannot stay healthy. Nonetheless, they have an exciting group of players who can light it up, and they continue to remain competitive despite lacking anyone who can protect the basket.  They also have $38 million in expiring contracts, and some interesting trade chips in low-salary guys like Aaron Brooks, Chase Buddinger, and Courtney Lee.  Should they decide to make a push for Carmelo Anthony, or any player for that matter, they will be able to offer up a package of expiring deals, draft picks, and assets, that no other team could match.  While they might not make the playoffs, the Rockets are well managed - Darrel Morey has done a fantastic job! - and primed for success in coming years.


11. New York Knicks: I love the energy that Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton have brought Madison Square Garden, but I do not think adding Carmelo Anthony to that mix is going to help this team win basketball games.  Rather than gutting their roster for another defenseless scorer who cannot help them in the areas they need the most assistance - defense, rebounding and protecting the basket - they should trade Eddy Curry's massive expiring deal for a true center who can protect the rim, and a back up point guard.  This team is good, and will provide fans with an exciting first round playoff series, but let's not pretend that they can go any further than that right now.  Until they fill out the roster a bit more, they will be little more than first round fodder capable of scoring a lot of points.

10. Atlanta Hawks: I struggled with where to rank the Atlanta Hawks because on one hand they are a good team capable of beating anyone on any night, with a core of players that are capable and reliable. On the other hand, they have nights where they lose by 40 points, and I cannot help but think they drastically overpaid for Joe Johnson's services.  However, in the now, the Hawks are capable of nabbing a top-4 seed in the East (though I firmly believe they will slide to the 5 spot and lose to the Bulls in the first round) and continuing to be a tough match-up on a nightly basis.

9. Utah Jazz: They lack a post defender and outside shooting, yet they are still within one-and-a-half games of third place in the Western Conference.  Their recent struggles on the road (they are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and have a scoring margin of only 1.2 points) however suggest that this team is not as good as their start to the season might suggest, and despite all his talents, Deron Williams might have to deal with a first round exit once again. 


The Jerry Sloan Division:
On the cusp, but still missing a piece.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder: The aforementioned trade idea - with Indiana for Danny Granger - would make a lot of sense for this team, but let's talk about reality rather than fantasy.  While the Thunder have one of the best 1-2 punches in the NBA in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, they get little contribution on the offensive end from few others with the exception of Jeff Green.  They play everyone tight, but continually have problems with the cream of the crop in their conference.  They are 1-5 against the Spurs, Lakers and Mavericks thus far this season, and the fact of the matter is they are going to have to beat at least two of those teams to advance to the NBA Finals. While I cannot see that happening this season (barring a mid season trade landing them a stud) they are primed to rule the West for years to come.

7. Dallas Mavericks: Up until three weeks ago, I thought this team was the biggest threat to dethrone the Lakers in the West. With injuries to Caron Butler (out until at least the playoffs) and Dirk Nowitzki (they were terrible without him, and have looked so-so with him back) this team has really taken a step back, despite valuable contributions from Tyson Chandler, Shawn Marion and Jason Terry.  If they can swing something at the deadline to land them another perimeter player (Stephen Jackson anyone?) they can get back in to the mix of winning the Western Conference, but until then, they will still be a distant third (even if they did beat the Lakers this past week.)

6. Chicago Bulls:If I were the Heat, Celtics or Magic, I would be scared to death of the Bulls right now.  Despite injuries to Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, this team has managed to remain within three-and-a-half games of the Celtics because of the superhuman play of Derrick Rose.  The likely leader in the MVP race, has added a three point shot to his already deadly offensive arsenal, and he showed leadership qualities on the floor that have made him the best point guard in the game right now.  I think they will give the Celtics a true battle in the second round (probably a 7-game series) before bowing out gracefully and reloading next season with a healthier team. 

5. Miami Heat: The (New) Big Three, when healthy, are capable of beating anyone.  However, as we have seen over the past two weeks, health will be a real issue for this team moving forward, because outside of James, Wade and Bosh, this team has little else.  While a healthy Mike Miller (and perhaps Udonis Haslem?) will help them come playoff time, I am not sure they will have the tools necessary to hang with Boston and Orlando in May. 

The Final Four:
The four teams that are best built for success in the post season.

4. Orlando Magic: I mentioned in a previous post how I liked the deals they made.  J-Rich and Turkoglu have brought a lot of talent and energy to the Magic, and even if Arenas isn't lighting it up for Orlando, his arrival has opened up playing time for Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass (due to the departure of Rashard Lewis) who have played fantastic basketball over the past three weeks.  I think the Magic are capable of making it to the NBA Finals once again, and this team is starting to recognize that they need to win now because Dwight Howard will be a free agent in the summer of 2012, when they could quite possibly lose the face of their franchise. 

3. Los Angeles Lakers: Despite all the stories about how the Lakers are not living up to expectations, they are only five-and-a-half games behind the Spurs, and have the third best record in the NBA.  Kobe Bryant is playing fewer minutes per game than he has since his second season in the league.  Having Bynum back makes a huge difference, as it allows them to bring Lamar Odom off the bench, and gives them real depth up front.  When Matt Barnes returns from injury, they will be whole again, and they might even get something out of Theo Ratliff and Joe Smith come playoff time.  For every naysayer out there, I don't think it is that outlandish to think that the Lakers can win playoff games on the road.  And, if the playoffs were to start today, they would need to do just that, finding a way to win in San Antonio and Boston.

2. San Antonio Spurs: Why do I have the best team in the league at number two? Because of all the top contenders for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, the Spurs are the only one to avoid an injury to one of their best players. The Heat have played without James, Bosh and Wade. The Lakers have played without Bynum, and with a hobbled Gasol. The Celtics have won without KG, Rondo, Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal.  But the Spurs, they have not had to deal with any maladies.  And, let's not forget, these guys are getting long in the tooth.  So, while I do not wish injury upon anyone, I would not be surprised if they lost a few games down the stretch due to injury.  Having said that, they look awesome, and, if the playoffs were played today, I would pick them to win it all.

1. Boston Celtics: They are a year older, and even hungrier.  What scares me most about the Celtics is that they have done all this without their starting center, as Kendrick Perkins has yet to return from the injury he suffered in last year's NBA Finals.  They win because of their defense, but with Rajon Rondo quarterbacking the offense, Boston is great on both ends.  They are good at everything they do, and I am absolutely terrified of them right now.  However, like I said before, what matters is where you are in April and May, not January.  So, for the Celtics to win another title, they will need to be healthy, specifically, they will need Kevin Garnett to be playing at 100%, as he anchors their defense, and helps to further spread their offense with his killer 17-foot jumpshot.

As it stands right now, I like Celtics to win it all.

New Years Resolution: Don't Close the Book So Quickly

My close friends back home know this all too well, but more often than not when discussing the NBA and players who are either developing or not developing, I am far too quick to share my opinion, make a snap judgment, and write someone - or some team - off. We call this "closing the book." I have "closed the book" on many players, only to be proven woefully wrong, and later begrudgingly reopen that book. If a team is leading big at the end of the first quarter, you will often hear me say "This game is over," despite the fact that there are 36 minutes left in the contest, and few games are decided in the first 12 minutes. In short, I overreact to small sample sizes.

But, I am not alone in this. In fact, the mainstream media has made a living off of this very practice for the past ten years, to the point where the news is spoon-fed to us in 10-second sound bites. But alas, I digress. Nevertheless, those who have been watching Sportscenter over the past few weeks, reading about basketball on ESPN.com or any other major sports site, or even casually following the NBA, have likely encountered the following conversation among sportswriters:

Sportswriter 1: So, how about the Lakers slump, they sure look awful, don't they?
Sportswriter 2: Sure do. I think we are seeing the end of a dynasty.
Sportswriter 1: Well, they have lost four out of their last eight games, and they just don't have the spirit of an NBA Champion.
Sportswriter 2: That's right, and with teams like the San Antonio Spurs, nearly half a dozen games ahead of them in the Western Conference Standings, they look like they're in trouble this postseason.

Some of what these fictitious sportswriters just said is true. The Lakers have looked pretty mediocre of late. They have played an uninspiring brand of basketball, and they have been embarrassed - on their home court no less - by inferior teams who were merely hungrier for the W. But, while they have lost four out of their last eight games, they have also won nine out of their last 13. And that's not that bad.

In short, because of our expectations of what the Los Angeles Lakers were supposed to be like heading in to this season, we view their play-to-date as a let down. But, that does not require us to go that extra step and opine about how they are unlikely to advance far in the playoffs or contend for another Championship in June. But, this is nothing new. Just prior to the playoffs last season, every sportswriter, talking head, blogger, and friend of mine completely wrote off the Boston Celtics. After all, following a torrid start to the season, they were a .500 team over the last 50 games, and a few weeks before the second season they looked very average.

How did those Celtics do again? Oh, that's right, they came within two minutes of securing another championship, eventually losing in an epic seventh game to the Los Angeles Lakers.

So, while the Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks have been winning consecutive games by the dozen, pasting their opponents, and racking up the W's, the Lakers have been playing down to their opponents, and are the only "top-tier" team without an impressive win streak.

What I am trying to say is this, in the world we live in today, where a 24-hour news cycle dominates our lives and tells us everything we need to know - and more information we could do without - we tend to look at issues solely in the "now," rather than analyzing those very issues in the grand scheme of things. Sure, the Lakers may look like an average team now, in January. But, what matters in sports is that you save your best for the playoffs, when it is "win and go home" time. After all, who knows what injuries, off-court incidents, or other issues might affect the top teams between now and April, when the NBA begins their annual four-month long playoff competition.

(NB: I say that as though I have a problem with watching basketball, when in fact the only problem I have is watching too much basketball. Case in point, the other night I watched the entire game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies. I am pretty sure NO ONE has ever watched an entire sporting event between teams based out of Oklahoma City and Memphis.)

Everybody closes the book too early, everybody judges another by a small sample of their work, and everyone writes off good teams, and talented players. And changing that way of thinking is one of my resolutions this year.

With that in mind, I would like to make a public ("public" in the sense of the four people that actually read my blog) apology to Michael Beasley. The uber-talented forward from the Minnesota Timbererwolves seemed like a lost soul not that long ago with the Miami Heat. As early as the summer before his rookie season, when he got in to a bit of off-court trouble (along with Mario Chalmers) at a preseason function, I declared him a bust. Boy, was I wrong.

Beasley is currently averaging 22 points and 6 rebounds per game, and is shooting a stifling 44% from 3-point range. He has teamed up with Kevin Love to form one of the most dynamic frontcourts in the entire Association, and he has found redemption in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. More importantly, he has proven all of his critics wrong, myself included.

I sincerely hope I am able to follow through on my resolution to not "close the book" early on others, to judge less, and to let things play out a bit more.  Here's to hoping others do the same.