Final(s) Edition

Tuesday marks the beginning of the end for the 2010-2011 NBA Season. And, the team that made the most news to start off the season will be there to finish it. The much-maligned Miami Heat took a lot of, well, heat, for the manner in which they teamed up three All-Stars and celebrated on the streets of Miami before ever playing a single game together. Nevertheless, through all the ups and downs, the Miami troika will be playing longer than any team. Any team other than the Dallas Mavericks that is. With all the focus on the Miami Heat over the course of this past season, Dallas was essentially forgotten as a championship contender. The common thinking was that outside of Miami and the Lakers, the only other teams that could compete for the Larry O'Brien trophy were the Boston Celtics and the San Antonio Spurs. Not so.

Much like the Heat, the Mavericks faced a rather rocky regular season. They posted two double-digit winning streaks, and three losings streaks of three games or more. Their star, Dirk Nowitzki, was injured, and the team suffered mightily in his absence. The lost their starting small forward, Caron Butler, for the season on New Years Day (not exactly the best way to celebrate the New Year) and speedster Roddy Beaubois was lost for the playoffs months after that. Nevertheless, some savvy free agency moves - namely trading for Tyson Chandler and signing aging sharpshooter Peja Stojakovic - have kept the Mavericks moving forward. They beat the Trail Blazers when many - including this writer - predicted they would fail. They swept the defending champion Lakers in a fashion no one thought fathomable. And then, they outlasted, outsmarted, and outclassed the young Oklahoma City Thunder in a fantastic five-game series.  Through it all, the Mavericks, like the Heat, have relied on staying within themselves, playing their game, and patience.

But, while both teams have been patient, the Mavericks do not have the luxury of being patient much longer.  With the core of their team (Nowitzki, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Butler and Stojakovic) all entering the twilight of their respective careers, this series likely represents their last chance at winning that elusive ring. 

On paper two things are clear, the Miami Heat have two of the three best players in the series (Wade and James) -  and quite possibly the fourth best too (Bosh) - and the Mavericks have a much deeper bench than the Heat. Additionally, a few more things are apparent: the Heat will attempt to shred the Heat on the wings, and the Mavericks will rely heavily on their hot outside shooting to keep them rolling. What is less evident is which of the two versions of each team will show up.

The Heat, like the Mavericks, have been playing their best basketball since the playoffs began. Like the Mavericks, they have been able to withstand late rallies from formidable teams, and have been able to do what many of their doubters said they could not do all season: close games.  Like Mavericks' star Dirk Nowitzki, Heat floor general LeBron James has a lot to prove on the game's greatest stage, as he too is searching for his first championship ring.

After all the story lines are exhausted, it really boils down to the players on the hardwood, and which team is able to impose their brand of basketball. If the playoffs are any indicator, the Heat will look to keep the score in the 80s with stifling defense, while the Mavericks will look to run and shoot, hoping to generate more than 100 points. While the Heat have major advantages in Wade and James, the Mavericks have Nowitzki - who is playing the best basketball of his career - and countless other players who outmatch their opponent. With that in mind, I will examine the individual match-ups and make my prediction.

Point Guard
While Mike Bibby and Mario Chalmers have made it this far, able to quiet down lead guards Rajon Rondo and Derrick Rose enough to advance, they will not be able to keep up with Jason Kidd's smarts, cunning, and ability to manage a game. While the old-Bear may have lost a step on both ends of the court, he is still incredibly effective at making timely plays, hitting three pointers, and setting up his teammates. His backup, JJ Barea, could also spell trouble for the Heat, as outside of their star wing players, they lack the speed to keep up with the little man from Puerto Rico.
   Advantage: Mavericks

Shooting Guard
Dywane Wade is clearly a better player than both DeShawn Stevenson and Jason Terry and the advantage will go to the Heat. Nevertheless, Stevenson and Terry bring very specials skills to the table, and if Wade is not able to shut them down on the defensive end, the Heat will have a very short run in the finals. Terry is an expert marksman, and like Kidd, a timely shooter. Conversely, Stevenson is a lock-down defender with three-point range, and a swagger that can slow Wade down a step. The Heat have nothing off the bench behind Wade, so if he gets in to any kind of foul trouble, the Heat are toast.
   Advantage: Heat

Small Forward
LeBron James is clearly the best basketball player in basketball right now. Every minute that Peja Stojakovic plays will be a moment for LeBron to attack and head straight for the basket. Nevertheless, Shawn Marion brings a multi-dimensional set of skills to the game that could trouble LeBron, who has heretofore played against strong wing defenders (Iguodala, Pierce and Deng) but has yet to face one as rangy and savvy as Marion. Mike Miller could provide a spark off the bench for the Heat - as he did in Game 4 of the Chicago series - but in reality, anything the Heat get from him is "found money."
   Advantage: Heat

Power Forward
Chris Bosh has proven his detractors wrong this postseason with solid games against the Boston Celtics and the Chicago Bulls. But nothing comes close to what Dirk Nowitzki has done in the second season.  He is shooting over 92% from the free throw line, and over 50% from the field and the three-point line, pouring in 28 points per game and grabbing 7.5 boards. In short, he has been perfect. Though a match-up between All-Star power forwards, this one is not even close.
   Advantage: Mavericks

Center
Joel Anthony has done a terrific job on the defensive end for the Heat, and has really helped them in their pick-and-roll defense. However, having any other one of their centers on the court - Ilgauskus, Dampier or Magliore - just kills them, on both ends. Conversely, the aforementioned Tyson Chandler is having a career year, is inspiring his teammates to play better, and is protecting the paint with such fervor that is seems certain that Mark Cuban will overpay him this season. Behind Chandler, the Mavericks have Brendan Haywood, who, though not a starting-caliber player, is a tenacious defender, and another big body that can protect the rim from the forays to the basket by Wade and James.
    Advantage: Mavericks

Bench
I already touched on this, but just to reiterate, the Miami Heat second unit is comprised of: Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, James Jones, Udonis Haslem and Erick Dampier. The Mavericks trot out: JJ Barea, Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Corey Brewer and Brendan Haywood. I am going to stick with Dallas on this one.
    Advantage: Mavericks


X-Factor
For the Mavericks, it's Shawn Marion. No one expects him to stop LeBron James, but if he can make it difficult for him to score and can provide some scoring of his own, he will have done his job admirably. For the Heat, it's Udonis Haslem. After a gutsy series against the Bulls, it remains to be seen what more he can do, and what he can provide, for the Miami Heat.
    Advantage: Mavericks


Prediction
The pundits - and certainly those who get paid to do what I do for free - are picking the Heat. Miami's overwhelming advantage in terms of athleticism seems to be what most experts are keying in on. Nevertheless, I think this is Dallas' year. They already beat the defending champs in an embarrassing sweep, and I just sense that Dirk wants this more than anything else out there.  As such, I am picking the Mavericks to win the NBA Finals.
     Pick: Mavericks in 6

What Can Brown Do For You?

Today's news that the Los Angeles Lakers hired former Cleveland Cavaliers coach Mike Brown to succeed Phil Jackson came as a surprise to some.  But for those of us that follow the game and understand the needs of the various teams in the Association, the Lakers could not have found a more appropriate replacement for the Zen Master. While Phil Jackson is undoubtedly the greatest coach in professional basketball - if not professional sports - he was understandably tired of coaching, and given the Lakers' collapse down the stretch in the playoffs, he was being tuned out by his players. As such, the hope seems to be that Mike Brown can infuse the veteran Lakers with new energy.


It is no secret that what Mike Brown does well is defense. Over five seasons in Cleveland, Brown won 272 games and lost 138, and much of this was due to the fact that the Cavaliers were consistently in the top-7 in defensive efficiency. He helped develop LeBron James from a rather poor defender in to one of the premier wing stoppers in the NBA.  Additionally, he made lemonade out of lemons. Aside from James, one can argue that Brown's second best player over the five years in Cleveland was Mo Williams or Anderson Varejao.

With that in mind, it is certainly going to be interesting to see how he fares at the helm of a Lakers roster that boasts four bona fide studs (Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Bynum) who can either create their own offense or finish strong inside.  I expect to see him maximize their defensive abilities - particularly pushing Gasol to "get at it" on that end - and help them shore up the weaknesses that were exposed against the New Orleans Hornets and even more so against the Dallas Mavericks.  Specifically, look for Brown to change up the defensive schemes that Jackson had put in place. Under Jackson the Lakers were fantastic at defending the 3-point line - at least in the regular season - and terrible at defending against long two-pointers and the pick-and-roll.

The big knock on Brown has always been that he does not seem to have much of a knack for coaching on the offensive end. Nevertheless, his teams in Cleveland the past few years were actually marginally more efficient on the offensive end than those teams in Los Angeles (never mind the fact that he did not end the season sporting gaudy jewelery as the Lakers did.) Still, offense is something that a strong assistant can bring to the table. Defense is a state of mind, and the backbone behind a team remodel. We saw that in 2008 when Kevin Garnett teamed up with the Celtics and bought in to the Tom Thibodeau defensive scheme, and this year we have seen it both in Chicago under now head coach Thibodeau and in Miami under Erik Spoelstra. 

At the end of the day, the Lakers got the best coach out there. There were some unproven coaches (Brian Shaw and Chuck Person to name a few) who might have made sense from a continuity perspective. And then there were some veteran managers (Larry Brown and Rick Adelman) who likely would have been more about signing a big name rather than signing the right name. The Lakers landed a young coach (Brown is 41) and a proven coach (he was the 2009 NBA Coach of the Year and led the Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals). But most importantly, the Lakers snared a coach who is successful enough to not be overwhelmed by the man he is replacing, and humble enough to understand his place in it all.