2012 Western Conference Preview

15. Phoenix Suns: 25-57. Apparently the Suns were working hard to complete a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder to acquire shooting guard James Harden. In the end, the Rockets were able to provide OKC with the best offer, and as a result the Suns have lost out on the one player they were truly honing in on when they will have cap space available next summer. The Suns were active this summer, as they reshuffled the majority of their roster. While players such as Marcin Gortat and Jared Dudley will be returning, the best player in their franchise history is now wearing a Lakers uniform. Additionally, the loss of Robin Lopez (via trade with New Orleans) and Channing Frye (who is battling a heart issue) means the Suns will be super-thin up front. The Suns were able to bring back Goran Dragic, who should thrive in the role as the starting point guard, and signed the thus-far underwhelming Michael Beasley to a three-year contract. In the end, this team is missing too many attributes of a quality organization (rebounding, shooters and notable a strong defensive presence) to expect much. While they may have some players who put up some gaudy fantasy statistics (I'm looking at you Goran!) they will be pretty putrid on the court, and the once proud franchise - which was a regular playoff contender with Nash in his prime - will regress during the first year of a true rebuilding program.

14. Sacramento Kings: 29-53. I am aware that the Kings have some nice young talent (namely up front with DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson and at point guard with Isaiah Thomas) and an underrated head coach (Keith Smart). However, the rest of their team is an absolute mess, and it seems that they have wasted some high draft picks in recent years on players who either a. showed great potential and athleticism in college (Tyreke Evans) or b. we all knew were not going to pan out (Jimmer Ferdette). They are carrying some crappy contracts with the likes of Francisco Garcia and Travis Outlaw on the books for roughly a combined $10 million this season. Add to that the fact that the just signed Marcus Thornton and Jason Thompson to long deals, and it is unclear what the Kings are doing. Cousins is good enough to carry this team to a number of wins on his own, and I believe that Thomas, Thornton and Robinson will help make this squad better in the long run. But, unless the Kings are able to move players like Evans and Ferdette for a genuine solution on the wing, this team will be experiencing a lot of losing for years to come.

13. Houston Rockets: 32-50. As of Saturday, I had Houston winning around 25 games. But, factoring in the acquisition of James Harden as well as the defensive presence that Omer Asik should bring on a nightly basis, I believe this team is capable of eeking out somewhere between 30 and 34 wins this year. The Jeremy Lin signing was somewhat of a head-scratcher. The Rockets had not one, but two point guards who were eminently capable of manning the reigns of the offense in Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry. But, they let the former go via free agency, and traded the later to Toronto for a draft pick (which they later sent to OKC for the rights to James Harden.) The Rockets are different from the Kings in two very important ways: one, they have a vision for their future (namely, to build around Harden and Lin in the back court, with Asik and their glut of forwards representing the future of their front court) and two, they are not burdened by any heavy contracts or poor draft picks for the coming years. A lot depends on what Kevin McHale is able to get out of his young players (Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Royce White and Terrence Jones) and whether Chandler Parsons is able to build on his late-season momentum from last year. I imagine the Rockets will continue to be active on the trade market, and wouldn't be surprised to see them land another big name, with the hope of building a playoff contender (would a package of Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones and Chandler Parsons and Minnesota's First Round Pick in 2013 be enough to land Pau Gasol?). In the short-term, I cannot see this team winning more than 34 games this season, and think it is fair to say that while Darryl Morey is not yet done with his plan to rebuild the Rockets, his vision is beginning to take shape.

12. Portland Trailblazers: 34-48. This projected record is based solely on LaMarcus Aldridge. If he misses more than 15 games for whatever reason, I think the 'Blazers are likely going to finish in the cellar of the Western Conference. While Damian Lillard seems ready for the professional game, I am not sure I can say the same about Meyers Leonard - the rookie out of Illinois. I thought Portland vastly overpaid for Nicolas Batum, and it looks as though Wesley Matthews has reached his ceiling (and still has roughly $21 million left on a contract that runs through 2015.) Nevertheless, new coach Terry Stotts is well-respected around the league, and was the lead assistant on the Dallas Mavericks 2010-2011 Championship team. Additionally, with a lot of turnover from last season and notably chucker Jamal Crawford no longer in Rip City, I imagine Aldridge will see more touches on offense, and should be able to surpass 24 points per game. If the Trailblazers are able to stay solid at home - where they play in front of one of the most rabid fan bases in all of sports - they should be able to win more than 30 games. If Aldridge misses significant time, and/or the rookies fail to produce as expected, this team might not win 25 games.

11. New Orleans Hornets: 36-46. Outside of Los Angeles and Brooklyn, New Orleans had perhaps the most active off-season. They drafted Anthony Davis with the first overall selection, and later named Austin Rivers out of Duke. They traded Gustavo Ayon for Ryan Anderson, and bring in Robin Lopez to shore up the front court. Finally, they resigned Eric Gordon to a max-offer sheet, and it seems the Hornets are shoring up the foundation of their team for the future. While Davis and Rivers (particularly the later) will experience the growing pains of playing in the NBA rather than the NCAA, head coach Monty Williams should be able to coach them enough to maximize their talents. Ryan Anderson and Robin Lopez bring veteran voices to the locker room, and Eric Gordon - if healthy - should provide a large scoring punch at the starting shooting guard position. The most interesting thing about the Hornets will be how they decide to shuffle their front court minutes. With Lopez, Davis and Anderson, the Hornets could start one of the largest front courts in the Association. However, in a more likely scenario, they will bring Lopez off the bench to spell both Davis and Anderson, and stagger minutes on the wing between Xavier Henry, Al-Farouq Aminu, Roger Mason. Hakim Warrick and Greivis Vasquez. While contending for a playoff spot is a tall order for such a young team, the Hornets will beat a lot of the teams ranked ahead of them, and will be a tough match up for virtually everyone they play. In the end, they will fall short of the second season, but, with the addition of even more young talent via the 2013 draft and perhaps an active off-season in 2013 (when they will have the ability to sign another player to a max deal) this team is primed to become a force in the Southwestern Division.

10. Dallas Mavericks: 40-42. This is about the point where we start talking about playoff contenders. With a healthy Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks are capable of winning between 44 and 48 games. That is assuming everyone else (including some stiffs like Chris Kaman and Elton Brand) played a full season. While the Mavericks were able to bring in some mid-level talent in O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison and the aforementioned former Clipper-tandem, Mark Cuban is clearly positioning his franchise with an eye towards the future. Nowitzki will miss the first few weeks of the season as he recovers from a leg injury, and it is unclear whether the Kaman-Brand-Marion troika can make up for his absence. A lot will also depend on whether the young guys (Dominique Jones, Rodrigue Beaubois and Jared Cunningham) can make a discernible impact, as the back court lacks the scoring punch and stewardship it had during the Jason Terry-Jason Kidd- J.J. Barea years. At the end of the day, the Mavericks will be lucky to make it above .500, but never count out Nowitzki or Rick Carlisle. Those two are both consummate professionals, and find a way to win.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves: 41-41. Were it not for the recent news that Kevin Love will likely miss the first month of the season, and the fact that Ricky Rubio is likely out until February or March, I would have had the Timberwolves ranked ahead of the Clippers on this list. The Timberwolves raided Russia this summer, (coming away with Andrei Kirilenko, Alexey Shved, Ivan Drago, Ivan Drago's trainer and a year's supply of PEDs) and also signed Brandon Roy and traded for Chase Budinger to shore up some scoring on the wing. It remains to be seen what Roy has left in the tank and whether Shved's success in Europe can translate to the NBA. But, with Kirilenko and Derrick Williams manning the fort until Love returns, it is safe to say that this team will be okay in the interim. I expect to see Nikola Pekovic continue to improve upon his breakout season, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him score upwards of 16 points per game. Luke Ridnour and Barea bring veteran leadership to the point guard position, and hopefully will play well enough in Rubio's absence to keep the team above .500. I want to pencil Minnesota in for a playoff spot, but with injuries to their top two players, and a healthy squad in Oakland and Salt Lake City, it is hard to see where the Timberwolves fit in.

8. Golden State Warriors: 42-40. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but the Warriors have the look of a playoff team, and a tough out in the first round (I am really hoping they end up squaring off with the Thunder in the first round, as that might be the most watchable seven-game series since the Chicago-Boston thriller in 2009.) This projected record is based COMPLETELY on the health of Steph Curry, David Lee and Andrew Bogut. If those players can combine to play at least 160 games, this team is going to the playoffs. Bogut should anchor a much-improved defense, and offset the liability of Lee on that end of the court. Klay Thompson is set to make the jump to a premier scorer at the shooting guard position, and rookie Harrison Barnes should thrive off of Curry's play-making skills. The second unit (Jefferson-Jack-Landry-Rush-Ezeli) should be one of the better bench mobs in the game, and should be able to keep most games close while the starters rest. Success in Oakland ultimately comes down to whether Andrew Bogut can protect the rim like he did in Milwaukee, and if he is able to remain healthy (as that has not been the case over the last two to three seasons.) It is about time that the Warriors focused on the defensive end, and with Bogut in tow, Mark Jackson should be able to coax the other players (namely Lee and Curry) to focus their attention on that end of the floor. If the Warriors continue to give up 105 points per night, they will be on the outside looking in. But, if they are able to stay healthy, improve on defense and incorporate their younger players in to the offense, Golden State stands the chance of making the playoffs and being a tough out for whomever they draw in the first round.

7. Utah Jazz: 44-38. The Utah Jazz currently suffer from a spoil of riches up front. They will likely start Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap alongside Marvin Williams in the front court, which means that youngsters Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors will come off the bench. However, the Jazz are likely to  be active in the trade market, as both Jefferson and Millsap are free agents after this season, which means that Kanter and Favors could both find themselves in the starting lineup by February. I expect both of these young big man to make major leaps this season. I also expect Gordon Hayward to start stretching defenses, which will create space for the young big men, and allow Alec Burks to contribute offensively. The biggest hole for this team is the starting point guard position. Currently, the Jazz employ the pu-pu platter of point guards in Earl Watson, Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye. Foye is probably the most talented of the bunch, and best suited to lead this offense with Burks at the shooting guard position. Ty Corbin did one hell of a job leading this team to the playoffs next year, and I expect him to guide this squad to the playoffs again this year. However, anytime you are relying so heavily on young players - as Corbin will be forced to do - to succeed in the NBA, you are taking a major chance. If the young guys don’t pan out this season, the Mavericks or Timberwolves will likely take this spot from them. But, if everything comes together, the young nucleus that Utah has been able to build in the post-Deron Williams era, should be enough to propel them to a first round match up with one of the division winners.

6. Memphis Grizzlies: 45-37. Unless the new ownership is either willing to pay the luxury tax, or the front office is able to get creative by jettisoning Rudy Gay or Zach Randolph, I am afraid we are looking at the upper limit of what this franchise will be able to do over the next few years. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are fantastic building blocks, and both showed significant improvement last season. The problem is two-fold: for starters, Gay and Randolph have barely played with one another, so it is difficult to envision what this franchise looks like as presently constructed. Furthermore, the Grizzlies might be even worse than the Jazz when it comes to scoring from beyond the three-point line, which significantly limits their offense. On the bright side of things, the Grizzlies still have a very strong starting five, and some significant talent coming off the bench (namely Marreese Speights, Darrell Arthur and Jerryd Bayless.) I expect the Grizzlies to be good, but not great. They will likely see Gay and Randolph miss some significant time, but that has been the case over the past two seasons, and somehow they were able to thrive in the absence of both. They are clearly a playoff team, but their seed will be largely determined by their health. Expect Memphis to play lock down defense - particularly on the perimeter where Tony Allen and Mike Conley should make opposing guards really work for points - and score with aplomb inside. But, don't expect too much, as the Grizzlies' shooting deficiencies and health concerns will prevent them from finishing with a strong enough record to host a first round playoff series.

5. Los Angeles Clippers: 47-35. This is a make-or-break year for the Clippers. With Chris Paul hitting unrestricted free agency next summer, the Clippers need to prove that the surrounding cast, headlined by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, are able to win enough to keep him on Los Angeles' "other team." I don't love what the Clippers did in the off-season. Grant Hill is 40, and has little left in the tank. Jamaal Crawford is a volume scorer, and likely won't get the touches necessary to placate his mercurial personality. Chauncey Billups is older too, and coming off a serious Achilles injury. However, Eric Bledsoe has shown flashes of brilliance in the pre-season, and should lead a bench, that, on paper looks good enough to hold - and perhaps extend - a lead when Paul and Griffin are riding the pine. Lamar Odom and Matt Barnes are going to be the key to that bench. If the former can regain some of his previous success in LA, and the later is able to continue to play aggressive defense and knock down the corner three, this team could easily win 50 games. However, I think 47 is a fair win total, as there are a number of question marks surrounding this team. Also, never count out the fact that Vinny Del Negro is still employed by the Clippers, and that he will be mercilessly out-coached on a nightly basis. Unless CP3 is able to truly take over the fourth quarter in every close game, this team is unlikely to host a first round playoff series.

4. San Antonio Spurs: 52-30. And now, for the hardest team to peg. The Spurs once again proved critics wrong last season, when they ended up with the best record in the Western Conference and nearly put the Thunder away, before losing four consecutive games to the eventual Western Conference Champions. The names on the back of the jersey are less important than the fact that the core of the franchise' success over the past decade will be returning this season, and that the best coach in the Association will continue to walk the sidelines for the Spurs. Kawhi Leonard should be able to build off his late-season momentum to become more of a featured player in the offense, and Tiago Splitter is likely to improve upon a fairly decent 2011-2012 campaign. As always, the big question mark will be health. Timmy is 36 years old, Manu is already battling an injury, Tony Parker nearly lost an eye this summer in a bar fight, and Stephen Jackson is on the wrong side of 30. However, no one manages minutes like Pop, and I expect him to find the right balance between winning and preserving his players for the playoffs. Write the Spurs in for 50 wins, just don't expect too much out of them during the regular season.  

3. Denver Nuggets: 55-27. The trendy pick among many to finish with the best record in the Western Conference, the Nuggets were able to add Andre Iguodala to an already devastating offensive system. They have a strong stable of big man, all of whom are capable of either playing great, or stinking up the joint, and they are loaded on the wing and in the back court with shooters (Gallinari and Evan Fournier), defenders (Wilson Chandler, Corey Brewer and the aforementioned Iguodala) and creators (Ty Lawson and the ageless wonder, Andre Miller). The Nuggets also play home games in one of the most difficult places to visit due to the altitude, and should run most teams ragged when they visit Denver. While I don't think they have the chops to go deep in the playoffs - their lack of a go-to big man will come to haunt them against teams like Memphis or either Los Angeles franchise - they do have the personnel to win in excess of 50 games and be one of the must-watch teams on NBA League Pass. Never count out George Karl to get the most out of his team, and be prepared for a lot of small lineups featuring three guards, along with Gallinari and Kenneth "The Manimal" Farried up front. The Nuggets will be a lot of fun this season and fans in the Mile High City are already looking back on the Carmelo Anthony trade as a blessing in disguise.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: 57-25. This projection is based on two things: the health of their core (namely Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Dwight Howard) and their ability to develop chemistry as the season progresses. No doubt, the Lakers will struggle from the outset, as they try to find their identity. In a perfect world, Bryant would defer to Nash, who would run high screen-and-roll plays with Pau Gasol, and pick-and-rolls with Howard. This would leave Bryant as a safety valve on offense and save his legs for the other end, where he will be expected to continue to contribute (particularly given Nash' history of playing "matador defense.") Metta World Peace will continue to be the fifth option on offense, and should see a lot of open looks for the corner three with the Maestro (Nash) orchestrating the newly instituted Princeton offense in Los Angeles. While others are particularly down on the reserves, I feel they are a massive upgrade from the subs that logged significant minutes for the Lakers last season. Steve Blake is what he is, a large point guard who can shoot, but is not a great creator. Jodie Meeks and Antawn Jamison will both be able to stretch the defense, and should get more open looks than they are used to getting (particularly if they share the court with either of the Lakers' bigs and Steve Nash), and Jordan Hill showed late last season that perhaps there was some untapped potential in the former lottery pick. While the Lakers will struggle to find their groove, they should see a late-season run similar to what the Miami Heat were able to do in 2010-2011 when they formed their big three. Mike Brown will benefit from having former Washington Wizards coach, Eddie Jordan, on his staff, and having Nash as his on-court coach. While I expect the Lakers to contend for the Larry O'Brien trophy, I do not expect them to finish with the West's best record.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 60-22. Despite losing the league's best sixth man in James Harden, I fully expect Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka to build off of their Olympic experience to propel this team to 60 or more wins. Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison form a strong two-headed monster in the middle, and Thabo Sefolosha, Reggie Jackson and the now-healthy Eric Maynor should provide strong defense in the back court, and help Durant and Westbrook in the scoring department. I am particularly interested to see what role Perry Jones III and Tyler Lamb will play for the Thunder. While I don't expect either to be major contributors right off the bat, I imagine that by the All-Star Break both players will be seeing significant minutes, particularly if they can stretch the defense with their shooting and play above-average defense on the front line. Add to this a potent scorer and shooter in the newly-acquired Kevin Martin, and the Thunder should be one of the deadliest teams on offense. Westbrook and particularly Durant will have to improve on defense if this team is going to hold up in the playoffs, as the two best defenders are unlikely to share much court time with one another (Collison and Perkins are the team's best defenders. Serge Ibaka is great at protecting the rim, but too often he leaves his man to provide the spectacular block, and is inconsistent on the defensive glass). If the Thunder are able to incorporate K. Martin, Jones III and Lamb in to the offense, and can get productive minutes from Maynor and R. Jackson, they will remain the team to beat in the Western Conference, and should finish the season with the best record in the West.

2012 Eastern Conference Preview

This off-season saw a lot of changes in the NBA. From Dwight Howard and Steve Nash teaming up in Los Angeles, to the new Brooklyn Nets acquiring Joe Johnson. Perhaps the biggest change will be felt in Chicago, where the Bulls will be without their star point guard Derrick Rose until at least late-February or early-March.

As always, how the standings play out depends a lot upon health. If, for instance, the Hawks lose Josh Smith or Al Horford to injury for a significant amount of time, they are toast. The same goes for teams like the Pacers (with Roy Hibbert), the Nets (with Deron Williams) and the 76ers (with oft-injured big man, Andrew Bynum). So, without further adieu, here is my best guess at how the Eastern Conference will end up come April.

15. Charlotte Bobcats: 18-64. The Bobcats were historically bad last season. Their biggest move during the off-season was to jettison Corey Maggette to the Pistons in exchange for Ben Gordon and a future first round pick. While they will not miss Maggette's ball-hogging on the wing, Gordon provides little upgrade for a team bereft of scoring punch. The Bobcats will trot out one of the worst starting lineups in NBA history (Brendan Haywood, Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Ben Gordon and Ramon Sessions) and will struggle to score over 85 points on a nightly basis. They will likely beat some good teams who are playing in "The Gem of the South" on a back-to-back road trip, but will likely not crack twenty wins. The future is very bleak in Charlotte, as their young players are not only raw, but show little upside potential on the offensive end. In a league that feeds on points, the Bobcats will be bad for a while. 

14. Orlando Magic: 21-61. Obviously the Magic are going to miss Dwight Howard in the middle. His presence cannot be replicated. Unlike baseball, where general managers have been able to succeed, by reloading with multiple "bit" players even after losing top-shelf talent, the NBA is a different animal. It is a league that thrives on star talent. And, when a team loses perhaps one of the three best players in the game, they are naturally going to struggle the following season. To compound things, the Magic also let sharp-shooting big man Ryan Anderson go (sending him to New Orleans in a sign-and-trade for Gustavo Ayon) in a move that boggles the mind. They resigned Jameer Nelson in another move that makes little basketball sense (why re-up with a washed up point guard when you are trying to reload with young talent?) The Magic will be relying on players like Glen Davis, Hedo Turkoglu and J.J. Reddick to generate most of their offense. That last sentence probably made most Orlando fans throw up in their mouth. The hope is that in a few years the Magic are able to rid themselves on their veteran players - and their burdensome contracts - and rebuild with young talent.

13. Cleveland Cavaliers: 28-54. While Dion Waiters was a surprise pick for the Cavaliers, the future is bright in Cleveland. They are building a talented core, beginning with dynamic point guard Kyrie Irving, forward Tristan Thompson, and the aforementioned Waiters. Anderson Varejao provides veteran stability in the middle, and strong leadership in the locker room. While the Cavaliers will not be good this year, they will be better, and, with another high draft pick in this years draft, they could be a playoff team by the 2013-2014 season.

12. Washington Wizards: 30-52. John Wall's injury will hurt the Wizards chances of making the playoffs this year, but the addition of Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Nene for an entire season will make this team stronger in the short term. While those off-season additions hamstring Washington's ability to build a contender around Wall, they should be a stronger defensive unit in the short term. And with young players like Trevor Booker, Jan Vessely, and Chris Singleton, the hope is that the Wizards can improve from within. With teams like Orlando and Charlotte in their division, the Wizards should be able to get some easy wins, but this team will be well under .500 unless John Wall takes a major step. 

11. Detroit Pistons: 35-47. The Pistons are getting better from within (since Detroit is not a true destination for free agents, this is the best the Pistons can do for now) with stud big-man Greg Monroe and guard Brandon Knight, who, in his first season, showed flashes of a star in the making. The addition of Andre Drummond via the draft will likely not pay dividends this season, but the Pistons are taking the long view, hoping that in another year or two they can move in to the middle-tier of teams fighting for a playoff spot. The Pistons are in dire need of moving some of their glut of combo-forwards to nab a scoring guard who can better complement Brandon Knight than the thus-far underachieving Rodney Stuckey. The Pistons will be a tough team on a nightly basis, but ultimately will fall short of the playoffs.

10. Toronto Raptors: 38-44. Dwayne Casey is already beginning to make his imprimatur with this young Raptors team by emphasizing defense. While Andrea Bargnani will never be confused with a bruising big man, he can score from outside, and with other bigs, like Ed Davis, and rookie Jonas Valanciunas, protecting the rim, and crashing the boards, Toronto's front-court is beginning to take shape. The addition of Kyle Lowry should also pay dividends on the defensive end, and if his three point shooting from last season holds up, the offensive end as well. This will be a make-or-break year for DeMar DeRozan, who has yet to impress in the "416", and Landry Fields and Terrence Ross will be fighting him for minutes on the wing. The Raptors will compete for the 8-seed in the playoffs, but likely miss out if Derrick Rose returns to full health for the last 20 or so games.

9. Milwaukee Bucks: 40-42. I would rank the Bucks higher if I knew what they were doing up front. They have a dynamic back-court with Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, but with the exception of Ersan Ilysasova (and perhaps rookie John Henson), they are pretty devoid of talent up front. Scott Skiles will push this team nightly, but, with the loss of Andrew Bogut in the middle (via the Monta Ellis trade last season he will have to make the transition from a defense-first organization to a

8. Chicago Bulls: 42-40. The aforementioned injury to Derrick Rose - sustained in Game 1 of the First Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs last year - will shape the season for the Bulls, whether they like it or not. Chicago also had to remake their roster on the fly, losing contributors like Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer, and C.J. Watson, and replacing them with the likes of Nazr Mohammed, Marco Belinelli and Nate Robinson. If the Bulls can play .500 ball without Rose, stay true to the defensive system that Tom Thibodeau has installed in Chicago, and get solid shooting out of their wing players, they will be in playoff contention throughout the season. With Rose, they are a scary playoff team to any higher seed, but for now, they are at best the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference.

7. Philadelphia 76ers: 44-38. This forecast depends entirely upon Andrew Bynum's health. As of now, he is still dealing with knee injuries, the same issue that has plagued him throughout his career. Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner will be expected to produce a lot, particularly with Andre Iguodala now wearing a Nuggets jersey. Additionally, Thaddeus Young will be leaned on for big minutes, be it at the small forward position, or in small-ball lineups as a face-up four man. Doug Collins tends to get the most out of his players, and he also has a way of maximizing his team's defensive potential. However, in the past, Collins' teams have tended to tune him out after three to four years. With a healthy Andrew Bynum, an improved Holiday-Turner tandem, and a team engaged to what Collins is preaching, this team could win 50 games. But, given the uncertainty of all of those factors, 44 wins and the seventh seed seems about right for this squad.

6. New York Knicks: 45-37. This is the classic style over substance team. Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire were supposed to be the dynamic duo in Gotham, but since coming over from Denver, Anthony's presence on the Knicks has not panned out as hoped. Their brief flirtation with "Linsanity" was a cute story but ultimately not sustainable, as the Knicks chose to import Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, and all the AARP benefits available, rather than re-signing Lin, and the productive (and under-the-radar helpful) Josh Harrelson. They did re-up J.R. Smith and Steve Novak, which will hep on the offensive end, but this team's success will be predicated on what they can do on the other end. If Tyson Chandler can replicate his defensive presence from last season, the Knicks should be alright. However, having a huge lineup of Chandler, Stoudemire and Anthony up front does not make sense. The Knicks are better off bringing Stoudemire off the bench in the role of a sixth man, and starting Anthony at power forward (something that will likely happen anyway, since Amar'e is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season with an injury.) The Knicks back-court will routinely get lit up by speedy point guards, but the team should be formidable enough to nab the sixth seed with around 44-47 wins on the season.

5. Brooklyn Nets: 47-35. While the Brooklyn Nets spending spree this summer was about as reckless as driving drunk, the short-term benefits will be felt with a massive improvement on the court. In addition to adding Joe Johnson to the back-court with Deron Williams, the Nets will have a healthy Brook Lopez (despite his paltry rebound-rate) and hopefully a strong bench with Marshon Brooks (now playing in a a sixth man role), C.J. Watson (playing back-up to Williams), and Mirza Teletovic (providing some shooting depth in the front-court). The Nets will get pounded on the boards on a nightly basis, as Lopez and Humphries lack the skills to clear missed shots, and the two provide absolutely no protection at the rim, meaning the Nets will have to score a lot to win games. But, with two all stars in Williams and Johnson, the Nets should be good enough to compete on a nightly basis, and they should get the five seed by virtue of elimination rather than anything else. However, if Williams misses a long stretch of games, the Nets could be in for another disaster season. 

4. Atlanta Hawks: 49-33. Yes, those Hawks. The same team that traded Joe Johnson for expiring contracts, and moved Marvin Williams to Utah for Devin Harris. The Hawks may have lost a lot of names, but they retained their two best players in Al Horford and Josh Smith. Surrounding Horford and Smith with proven shooters in Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow, along with Lou Williams and Anthony Tolliver, will stretch defenses out to the three point line, and should allow for either Devin Harris or Jeff Teague to get in to the lane and draw fouls on opposing defenders. Not only do the Hawks have a bright future with a lot of money coming off their books in the next 18 months, but their present is equally bright, as they should be able to stay competitive, and maybe even win 50 games despite losing 40% of their starting lineup.

3. Boston Celtics: 54-28. This is perhaps the deepest team the Celtics have run out since the "Big Three" came together in 2007. And, while the "Big Three" may be no more, with Ray Allen having signed with the Miami Heat in the off-season, the Celtics go at least two deep at every position. Rajon Rondo is due for a huge season (I am predicting 16 points, 12 assists and 5 rebounds per game) and along with Courtney Lee, Avery Bradley and Jason Terry, will form the deepest and most talented back-court in the NBA. Up front, Pierce and Garnett are joined by Brandon Bass, a now-healthy Jeff Green and newcomers Fab Melo and Jared Sullinger. The Celtics depth, commitment to defense, and swagger should allow them to comfortably land a top-3 seed in the East. While I believe they are a Championship-caliber team, I imagine they will deal with some injuries over the course of the season - understandable for an aging team - which will likely prevent them from passing the next two teams on this list.

2. Indiana Pacers: 56-26. The Pacers will benefit from a weak division (particularly so due to the injury to Derrick Rose), roster continuity, and an understanding of what they represent. While the Pacers do not have a true All-Star on their roster, they are strong up front, with Roy Hibbert, David West, and Danny Granger, as well as in the back-court with George Hill and the rapidly improving Paul George. Gerald Green, Tyler Hansborough and D.J. Augustin will form the core of a fairly potent second unit and the entire team should benefit from a long playoff run last season. While I still do not believe that the Pacers have the personnel to compete with either Miami or Boston in the post-season, during the regular season I fully expect Indiana to surpass 50 wins and finish with the second seed.

1. Miami Heat: 64-18. Enough has been said about the off-season acquisitions the Heat made (namely Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis) as well as how Dwyane Wade is recovering from injury faster than expected. However, what is really telling, and perhaps will lead directly to future success for Miami is the notion of a "position-less" roster, wherein Chris Bosh will be manning the middle, and LeBron James will be playing at the four, as a "point forward." While Bosh will struggle to guard the Bynums, Howards and Hibberts of the league, he will probably fare quite well against other true centers, and the tandem of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the wing will make it hard for any opposing player to penetrate the Miami defense. LeBron James should have another monster season, and is likely in line for yet another MVP award. I fully expect to see Miami back in the NBA Finals, but before making that prediction, I will have to see how they deal with any injuries, and whether they are able to deal with the malaise that often sets in after a team has climbed to the top of the mountain.

The NBA Age Rule

Hello Again
I do not get the chance to post on here nearly as much as I would like. But, with the regular season beginning in twelve days, I figured now was as good a time as any to start back up with my basketball blog. In today's post, I want to briefly touch on a few issues: the NBA age rule, contracts, lineups, and a little something special for the end. So, without further adieu, let's get started.

The NBA Age Rule Makes a Mockery of the NCAA:
The age eligibility rule states that, "All drafted players must be at least 19 years old during the calendar year of the draft. To determine whether a player is eligible for a given year's draft, subtract 19 from the year of the draft. If the player was born during or before that year, he is eligible. Any player who is not an "international player", as defined in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, must be at least one year removed from the graduation of his high school class." In other words, unless you are an international player, you need to either spend a year in college or play elsewhere until you are 19 years old.

The problem with the rule, as I see it, is that it turns the NCAA in to a veritable farm system for the professional league, and takes away from the college game. Case in point, The University of Kentucky. The entire core of this year's National Championship team fled UK for greener pastures after securing John Calipari's first NCAA title. However, this is nothing new. For the major programs (colleges in the big-six conferences: Big East, ACC, SEC, Big-10, Big-12, and Pac-12) the notion of having a top prospect high school player stay on campus beyond his freshman year has become a fantasy.  While this has led to an influx of great young talent over the past few years (just consider that since 2008 the following players have entered the NBA after only one year in college: Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, John Wall, Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Bradley Beal) it has also saturated the NBA with players who were just not ready for the big time quite yet. Beasley, Mayo and Evans come to mind when considering who would have benefited from some more time on campus, honing their skills and getting some more coaching.

The other problem, at least as I see it, is that the current system, beginning with the AAU programs, creates these kids who are perceived as prodigies, coddles them throughout their teenage years, and then expects them to just produce in a league of men.  Remember that for every LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, there is a DaJuan Wagner.

So, what then is the solution? Why not take a page from the other professional leagues? Major League Baseball allows high-school students to enter the draft. Once drafted (or not drafted) those players can choose to either go straight in to the professional ranks (likely starting in Single-A) or attend college.  But, if the player chooses to attend college, he must stay in school through his Junior year before leaving to play professional ball.

The baseball rule has three profound effects, which touch on the player, the school, and the professional team they join. First, the player learns good habits, breaks bad habits, and begins to understand what it is like to play against grown men. Second, the school becomes less of a sports factory and produces true "student-athletes."  The NBA rule makes a mockery of "student-athletes," in that freshman phenoms are only required to pass their fall semester courses. What happens after that does not affect the results on the court.  Finally, the league - in this case Major League Baseball - receives the benefit of having players who have been groomed properly and those who cannot cut it at the collegiate level are weeded out via natural selection.

In short, the current rule in the NBA is a disservice to the player, the league, and most importantly the fans.  You know, those people who shell out over a billion dollars each season on tickets and items purchased at the various arenas.  The NBA should consider using the Developmental League as a true minor league rather than pimping out players via the NCAA and continuing to pull the wool over the eyes of the American public. 

What if?
Those who know me best understand that my grasp on fiction and reality is tenuous at best.  Having said that, I have long wondered who would win a hypothetical three-on-three match-up among the characters from The Wire.  In the first season, episode nine is titled Game Day and pits the East-Baltimore Project "all stars" coached by Proposition Joe against the West-Baltimore Project "all stars" coached by Avon Barksdale and Stringer Bell. What I have always wanted to know is who would win if a true three-on-three style tournament were put on, and of course, who would make it on to the various teams?

Here is how I think it would play out:

Game One, "The Original West Side Crew": Avon Barksdale, Stringer Bell and Roland "Wee-Bey" Brice versus "The Low Rise Kids": D'Angelo Barksdale, Malik "Poot" Carr and Preston "Bodie" Broadus.
      Winner: This one is not even close. The older crew, headlined by Avon and Stringer - who definitely have some alley-oop potential in them - would steamroll the young guns and easily advance to play the winner of the following...
Game Two, "The West Side Replacements": Marlo Stanfield, Christ Partlow and Felicia Snoop Pearson versus "The Corner Kids": Michael Lee, Randy Wagstaff and Namond Brice.
     Winner: In a "shocking" upset, I think the corner kids, led by Michael Lee's inside presence and Namond Brice's rugged rebounding would dismiss Marlo's gang.

Game Three, "The East Side Crew": "Proposition" Joe Stewart, Calvin "Cheese" Wagstaff and "Slim" Charles versus "Every Man Must Have a Code": Omar Little, William "Bunk" Moreland and Lester Freeman. 
     Winner: The veteran savvy of Moreland and Freeman, combined with Little's "win at all cost" attitude will propel this motley crew past the East Side Drug Kingpins to play the winner of the following...
Game Four, "The Top Brass": Ervin Burrell, William "Bill" Rawls and Cedric Daniels versus "The Free Agents": Reginald "Bubbles" Cousins, Dennis "Cutty" Wise and Brother Mouzone.
     Winner: Despite "Bubbles" falling asleep for about half the game after taking a full shot of heroin between his toes, "The Free Agents" end up destroying "The Top Brass," behind Cutty's interior strength and Brother Mouzone's ability to scare the living hell out of the competition.

Semifinal: "The Original West Side Crew" versus "The Corner Kids."
    Winner: Another lopsided win for Avon and the gang. At one point Wee-Bey even dunks on his own son Namond and shatters the backboard above him.  This leads to a finals match-up against the winner between the following...
Semifinal: "Every Man Must Have a Code" versus "The Free Agents".
    Winner: In a defensive battle, punctuated by a shootout between Omar and Brother Mouzone, "Every Man Must Have a Code" win in the last seconds.

Final: "The Original West Side Crew" versus "Every Man Must Have a Code".
    Winner: Avon and the gang get their revenge on Omar, something they were unable to do throughout the first three seasons of the critically acclaimed HBO series, and win in a rout.

So, in summation, The Original West Side Crew clearly represents the best basketball talent on The Wire, and I clearly need some clinical assistance.

Until next time.