The debate over who should, and should not, be included on the U.S. Olympic Basketball Team will rage on for the next few months. Pundits will attempt to convince you that they truly know which players will complement one another the best. Like those talking heads, I too will weigh in on this topic.
After the U.S. Men's disastrous showing in Athens in 2004, David Stern, Jerry Colangelo and the U.S. Olympic Association got serious about turning around the program that had been the gold standard for global basketball. By the Summer of 2007, it was clear that they had succeeded in their endeavor, even if the first reboot in August of 2006 failed to past muster.
In August 2007, I watched in amazement as the team, split in to two squads, blue and white, and played a nationally-televised scrimmage. On one team you had LeBron and Wade, and on the other you had the old veteran, Kobe Bryant, and the rookie, Kevin Durant. During a timeout with less than a minute to go in the game, Bryant took Durant under his shoulder, literally, and explained to him how to better execute a defensive assignment. Durant nodded, and the two returned to the court to finish out the game. Down one point, Durant inbounded the ball, Kobe caught it near the top of the key, and, in dramatic fashion, nailed the game-winning basket as time expired. Right there, right then, we saw the present and the future of U.S. Basketball.
The following summer, Kobe would once again lead the U.S. to victory, this time against their arch-rival, Spain. The gold medal game was much closer than many people remember, and were it not for Bryant and Wade's defensive stops and clutch shooting in the last eight minutes of the game, Pau Gasol and Ricky Rubio would have been perched along the top position of the dais. Since then, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard have not participated in Olympic Basketball games. Nevertheless, a new crop of All-Stars have played an integral part in keeping the Men's team at the top of Olympic Basketball.
Led by Durant, Kevin Love, Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, the 2010 Men's team was victorious in the FIBA Championship in Istanbul. Though veterans like Lamar Odom and Tyson Chandler played a huge part in establishing a defensive mindset for the rest of the squad, it was the young-guns who really helped further the program, allowing the team to succeed in the absence of such big names as Kobe and LeBron.
Below are the finalists for the 2012 U.S. Basketball Team. While I am confident that I could create a successful team including some players not mentioned on the list below, I will stick to the list, make my picks, and explain why certain players belong in London, and why others are not right for this team, or perhaps not right for international basketball... yet.
Finalists:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Tyson Chandler,
Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, Andre Iguodala, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Lamar Odom, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams.
Who's Out:
Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love Lamar Odom, and Russell Westbrook.
Why They're Out:
Chauncey Billups, Tyson Chandler and Lamar Odom: They're too old and they don't fit in to the future plans for Team U.S.A. Billups is still a strong-willed leader, and a terrific clutch shooter. Nevertheless, on a team that is sure to carry Chris Paul, Derrick Rose and Deron Williams, Billups is the odd man out. Chandler is a great defensive anchor in the middle, but he is incredibly limited on the other end of the court. While Team U.S.A. will never be short of offense with players like LeBron, Wade and Kobe around to pour in buckets, Chandler is not a good fit for an international basketball team. He doesn't stretch the defense like other international big men (think Pau Gasol or Luis Scola) and there is a recent invitee who is a better fit to play up front (Spoiler Alert: his first name rhymes with "JaMarcus.") While the same argument can be made about Dwight Howard, D12 is a transcendent defensive player, and he cannot be omitted from this team. As for Odom, his recent play in Dallas, his age, and his undefined position make him a sure-fire candidate to be cut before the team heads across the pond. While he is great at initiating the offense, can play virtually every position on defense, and is an adept shooter from outside, I just can't see him making it over guys like Bosh, Aldridge, or even Kevin Love.
Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook: They are not ready for the international game. In international basketball, the most important skill that a player must possess on the offensive end is the ability to shoot a jump shot. For Westbrook this is less of an issue as his blazing speed allows him to blow by any defender. For Griffin however, this is a major blow to his chances to join the team in London. Griffin - like Westbrook - is a great athlete, and he might be the best dunker in the NBA. Nevertheless, his offensive game is severely limited to dunks, put-backs, and the occasional up-and-under. Unlike Westbrook, Griffin is also a woeful defender and can not be trusted to defend players like Pau or Marc Gasol. While I fully expect both of these guys to join the team in 2016, I think that Team U.S.A. would be detrimentally affected by having them on the court this summer.
Andre Iguodala: He is a great "jack of all trades, master of none," and with guys like LeBron James Carmelo Anthony, Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant and Rudy Gay likely to make the team, there are too many wing players as is. Iguodala also possesses a rather shaky outside shot, and while he is one of the ten best defenders in the NBA, once again you need to have a strong jump shot to make it to the Olympics.
Eric Gordon and Kevin Love: These guys are the wild card players. If Rudy Gay and LaMarcus Aldridge don't get the nod to join the 12-man roster, I believe these will be the two players who fill out the roster. Eric Gordon is the perfect player to man the 2-spot for the U.S. Men's team. Gordon is a prolific outside shooter, he is a bulldog of a defender, and an underrated passer. He is likely to be kept off the team this Summer as he is recovering from a litany of injuries and his future is a bit in question as he might try to play on a one year deal with New Orleans before exercising his free agency in the Summer of 2013. As for Love, if he were a better defender, he would be the prototypical international big man. He is the best shooter taller than 6'9" in the NBA who doesn't have a German accent. He is an amazing passer and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Dennis Rodman. He is also incredibly cerebral and a true competitor. As I said, these are the two guys I can possibly see making it this Summer over Aldridge and Gay.
Who's In:
LaMarcus Aldridge, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Dwayne Wade, and Deron Williams.
Why They're In:
Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade and Deron Williams: They've been there before, they got the job done, and they still have more than enough in the tank to bring home the gold in the Summer of 2012. This is an incredibly strong eight-man core of returning players and gives Team U.S.A. everything that they need. Antony is as pure a scorer as anyone in the NBA, and his ability to play either forward spot in the international game is an added asset for the American team. Bosh is a great inside-outside big man, a player whose defense is underrated, and a player capable of spelling Dwight Howard for long periods of the game. Kobe Bryant is still one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, a player capable of shutting down the opposing team's best wing scorer on any given night, a prolific scorer, and above all else a player who wants to win. Dwight Howard gives the team their defensive presence inside and in international basketball, where tip-ins are allowed and not considered offensive goal-tending, his impact on the offensive end is much needed. LeBron James is the best all-around athlete in the NBA, a point guard in a power forward's body, and a two-time MVP. Chris Paul is the best pure passer, and the best defender for speedy point guards. Dwayne Wade is another great scorer, a man who possesses a beautiful mid-range jump shot, and someone who - like Bryant - is able to turn it on defensively and set the tone for the rest of the team. Deron Williams is a powerful point guard with a more refined offensive skill-set than Chris Paul, and while he is not quite the defender that Paul is he provides the American team with a different look against bigger guards.
LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay: In my opinion Aldridge is the perfect big man for Team U.S.A. He is a great inside scorer, but is also the best mid-range jump shooting big man outside of Pau Gasol in the NBA. He is a long, agile defender who is capable of manning the 5-position for the American team, and he knows what it takes to win, having helped Portland to the playoffs last year despite all the injuries they sustained. Rudy Gay is another fantastic scorer, who is also able to lock down opposing wings on defense. He showed a lot of growth, maturity and leadership in the Summer of 2010 in Istanbul, and if he is healthy, he should absolutely join the team in London. If either one of these guys is left off the squad, then Kevin Love and Eric Gordon should be added to replace them.
Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose: They are the future of American Basketball. Kevin Durant is a fantastic basketball player and is only getting better. This season he has already increased his free throw rate and has taken the ball inside more, adding another dimension to his offensive game. On defense, he won't be asked to do too much, but his ability to get in passing lanes with his long arms will allow the Americans to get the fast break moving and score easy buckets. Derrick Rose is the reigning MVP, a player who once was unable to shoot and is now a deadly jump shooter, a strong passer and defender, and a bona fide leader. If healthy, these two players will likely play on the next three Olympic teams for the United States.
So, those are my thoughts, my picks, and my feelings on U.S.A. basketball. Who makes the squad remains to be seen, but if there ever was a year when the United States needs to ensure that they bring the right guys to the games, this is it. Spain is much improved from their 2008 team. And with a front court that includes Serge Ibaka and the Gasol brothers, a back court full of shooters to go along with Ricky Rubio's virtuoso passing performances, and a cohesive spirit unlike any other nation's team, they could beat the Americans. That is if Team U.S.A. does not come to play.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Sunday, January 1, 2012
The Wild Wild West
I realize that I failed to put out my annual Western Conference predictions prior to the season beginning, so this may be a bit after the fact, but better late than never. The following is the order in which I believe the teams will finish the regular season, not necessarily who will represent the West in the NBA Finals. Whereas the Eastern Conference is very top heavy, (I really don't see the Eastern Conference sending a representative outside of South Beach of Chi-Town) the Western Conference is wide open. Though the Oklahoma City Thunder are the heavy favorites to finish with the top seed, the compressed format for this year's schedule will set up an interesting number of playoff battles, much like the lockout-shortened 1998-1999 season. So, consider the following both my predictions for the way the regular season will play out for the Western Conference teams, and what might eventually happen in the second season.
Predicted Standings:
Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Memphis Grizzlies
Lottery Teams
9. Houston Rockets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. New Orleans Hornets
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Utah Jazz
15. Phoenix Suns
The Suns and Jazz have just looked awful in the early part of this season, and have little to play for. Both teams are better off moving in to full rebuilding mode rather than trying to eke out a playoff spot, only to be swept by a team like the Thunder (and believe me, neither the Suns nor the Jazz have a shot at the playoffs.)
The Kings, Warriors, and Hornets are all young teams with a lot of pieces, but none of them seemingly have any idea how to properly use the talent they have. The Kings have a logjam in the back court, and play zero defense. The Warriors also play zero defense, and lack a legitimate front court defensive presence. The Hornets were hastily put together by Czar Stern, and while they will be a contender in the future (a nucleus of Eric Gordon, Al Farouq Aminu, the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, their own 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, and whatever else they can get for some of their movable assets - e.g. Chris Kaman - is promising) they are not going anywhere right now.
The Timberwolves are a frisky team. They have one of the best young players in the game (Kevin Love) lots of depth, particularly on the wings (Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Martell Webster, Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington, etc...) and point guard (KAHNNNNN!!!!) and they have the perfect coach, in Rick Adelman, to motivate a young team to win 30+ games, which might be enough to get them in to the playoffs this season. But they will still have to deal with the growing pains that come with young teams. Watch out for them in the future, they will be a halfway decent team, and this year they will be an eminently watchable franchise, a step up from the past few years under Kurt Rambis.
The Houston Rockets, like Minnesota, has a deep roster (a must for success in a shortened regular season) and plenty of scoring punch in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Courtney Lee) but they lack a true center, and in the Western Conference you need a big man to win (or a transcendent All-Star named Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitzki). So, until Houston can solve their problems in the middle (and Samuel Dalembert is not the answer) they will be on the outside looking in.
That leaves us with eight teams that will make the playoffs. And this is the year when seeding really doesn't matter. Both John Hollinger at ESPN.com and Bill Simmons from Grantland.com have intimated that what really matters, particularly for older teams like San Antonio, Dallas and the Lakers, is merely getting in. While Denver and Portland can boast about their depth (particularly Denver, a team that can go 10 or 11 deep) the playoffs is about having a strong 7-man rotation. In a 7-game series, I would take the Lakers rotation of Kobe-Pau-Bynum-World Peace-Blake-McRoberts and Troy Murphy over the Ty Lawson, Nene, Arron Afflalo, Gallinari and crew. The same goes for a potential Portland-Clippers matchup. In that potential series, the Clippers would walk on to the court each night with the two best players (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) wearing red white and blue. The really interesting match-ups - at least among those teams I think are capable of making the playoffs are the Thunder-Grizzlies rematch from last season, and the perennial Texas grudge match between San Antonio and Dallas.
In the former match up, everything turns on whether Rudy Gay can be the difference maker that the Grizzlies lacked in last year's epic 7-game series against the Thunder, and whether the Thunder's big men will be able to contain both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. While OKC is the overwhelming favorite to come out of the West, I can absolutely see the Grizzlies stealing a page out of the 1999 New York Knick's playoff playbook.
A possible Dallas-San Antonio match up might seem fairly even, but if the first few games of this season have shown me anything about the Spurs, it's this: Tim Duncan is old, and he is no longer a difference maker on either end of the court. In that series I would expect Dirk to go bonkers and I would confidently pick Dallas in 5 or 6 games.
Moving along with these picks, the Lakers would have a chance to avenge their embarrassing playoff exit to the Dallas Mavericks, and go up against a familiar foe, and former friend, Lamar Odom. It is hard to make a prediction on who would win a potential series between Dallas and L.A. as I think the Lakers are not done dealing. With an $8.9 million trade exception (from the Lamar Odom salary dump) and the veterans minimum available to throw at players who may become available (remember, that J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Aaron Brooks will be freed from China by Jack Bauer in March.) Aaron Brooks might be of particular interest to the Lakers, as they need a speedy point guard to match up with guys like CP3, Parker, Mike Conley, etc... They could also look to pry some talent from Minnesota - Luke Ridnour and Michael Beasley would provide them with some upgrade at the 1 and the 3, and inject them with some much-needed youth up front - with the aforementioned trade exception. Anyway, in a potential series between these two teams, I would expect LA to exorcise their demons and take down Dallas.
It's the other series that provides the real intrigue, at least for me. If Memphis were to match up with the Clippers, we might have one of the most intriguing and even series in years. While Mike Conley is not Chris Paul, he is good enough that he won't get burned off of every pick-and-roll in the way a slower, older point guard a la Derek Fisher might. Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, and Jeremy Pargo would provide ample ammunition to fend off Chauncey Billups, Randy Foye, Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe. Up front, Blake Griffin cannot contain Zach Randolph, and Randolph cannot contain Griffin. The Clippers are woefully thin at center. When - not if - DeAndre Jordan gets in foul trouble, the Clippers will be seeing a lot of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans "protecting" Griffin's back, whereas the Grizzlies have Marc Gasol, and can lean on Dante Cummingham for quality minutes. However, it's on the wing where the Grizz have a true advantage over the Clips. While Caron Butler is a "nice" player, he will be overmatched by Rudy Gay, and Ryan Gomes will not be able to contain Sam Young. Finally, the Clippers are coached by Vinny del Negro, and I just don't trust him.
While "Lob City" will be fun to watch, it will probably be another year before they become a true contender (which will of course necessitate firing del Negro). As such, I would expect Memphis to advance to the Western Conference Finals to face the Los Angeles Lakers.
Only in a lockout-shortened season could a potential Western Conference Finals feature the 6 seed and the 8 seed. While the Lakers have the front court depth (McRoberts and Murphy provide them with big bodies to throw at Gasol and Randolph, and don't sleep on Derrick Caracter coming back to provide them with a 5th big man by the playoffs) to contend with the Grizzlies, it will really come down to the Lakers ability to defend a speedy point guard like Conley, and a smooth three-man like Rudy Gay for them to make it back to the NBA Finals.
In a year which started off with Commissioner David Stern meddling with a potential three-team trade to the point where at least four franchises were detrimentally affected (LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics) I can absolutely see it ending with Czar Stern rigging the Western Conference Finals to ensure that the NBA Finals ratings are high with a potential Los Angeles - Chicago or Los Angeles - Miami series, rather than having to worry about filling FedEx Forum in Memphis.
The NBA, where shady Commissioners happens!
Predicted Standings:
Playoff Teams
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Portland Trail Blazers
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Memphis Grizzlies
Lottery Teams
9. Houston Rockets
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
11. New Orleans Hornets
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Sacramento Kings
14. Utah Jazz
15. Phoenix Suns
The Suns and Jazz have just looked awful in the early part of this season, and have little to play for. Both teams are better off moving in to full rebuilding mode rather than trying to eke out a playoff spot, only to be swept by a team like the Thunder (and believe me, neither the Suns nor the Jazz have a shot at the playoffs.)
The Kings, Warriors, and Hornets are all young teams with a lot of pieces, but none of them seemingly have any idea how to properly use the talent they have. The Kings have a logjam in the back court, and play zero defense. The Warriors also play zero defense, and lack a legitimate front court defensive presence. The Hornets were hastily put together by Czar Stern, and while they will be a contender in the future (a nucleus of Eric Gordon, Al Farouq Aminu, the Timberwolves 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, their own 2012 1st Round Draft Pick, and whatever else they can get for some of their movable assets - e.g. Chris Kaman - is promising) they are not going anywhere right now.
The Timberwolves are a frisky team. They have one of the best young players in the game (Kevin Love) lots of depth, particularly on the wings (Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Martell Webster, Wesley Johnson, Wayne Ellington, etc...) and point guard (KAHNNNNN!!!!) and they have the perfect coach, in Rick Adelman, to motivate a young team to win 30+ games, which might be enough to get them in to the playoffs this season. But they will still have to deal with the growing pains that come with young teams. Watch out for them in the future, they will be a halfway decent team, and this year they will be an eminently watchable franchise, a step up from the past few years under Kurt Rambis.
The Houston Rockets, like Minnesota, has a deep roster (a must for success in a shortened regular season) and plenty of scoring punch in Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Kyle Lowry and Courtney Lee) but they lack a true center, and in the Western Conference you need a big man to win (or a transcendent All-Star named Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitzki). So, until Houston can solve their problems in the middle (and Samuel Dalembert is not the answer) they will be on the outside looking in.
That leaves us with eight teams that will make the playoffs. And this is the year when seeding really doesn't matter. Both John Hollinger at ESPN.com and Bill Simmons from Grantland.com have intimated that what really matters, particularly for older teams like San Antonio, Dallas and the Lakers, is merely getting in. While Denver and Portland can boast about their depth (particularly Denver, a team that can go 10 or 11 deep) the playoffs is about having a strong 7-man rotation. In a 7-game series, I would take the Lakers rotation of Kobe-Pau-Bynum-World Peace-Blake-McRoberts and Troy Murphy over the Ty Lawson, Nene, Arron Afflalo, Gallinari and crew. The same goes for a potential Portland-Clippers matchup. In that potential series, the Clippers would walk on to the court each night with the two best players (Chris Paul and Blake Griffin) wearing red white and blue. The really interesting match-ups - at least among those teams I think are capable of making the playoffs are the Thunder-Grizzlies rematch from last season, and the perennial Texas grudge match between San Antonio and Dallas.
In the former match up, everything turns on whether Rudy Gay can be the difference maker that the Grizzlies lacked in last year's epic 7-game series against the Thunder, and whether the Thunder's big men will be able to contain both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. While OKC is the overwhelming favorite to come out of the West, I can absolutely see the Grizzlies stealing a page out of the 1999 New York Knick's playoff playbook.
A possible Dallas-San Antonio match up might seem fairly even, but if the first few games of this season have shown me anything about the Spurs, it's this: Tim Duncan is old, and he is no longer a difference maker on either end of the court. In that series I would expect Dirk to go bonkers and I would confidently pick Dallas in 5 or 6 games.
Moving along with these picks, the Lakers would have a chance to avenge their embarrassing playoff exit to the Dallas Mavericks, and go up against a familiar foe, and former friend, Lamar Odom. It is hard to make a prediction on who would win a potential series between Dallas and L.A. as I think the Lakers are not done dealing. With an $8.9 million trade exception (from the Lamar Odom salary dump) and the veterans minimum available to throw at players who may become available (remember, that J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Aaron Brooks will be freed from China by Jack Bauer in March.) Aaron Brooks might be of particular interest to the Lakers, as they need a speedy point guard to match up with guys like CP3, Parker, Mike Conley, etc... They could also look to pry some talent from Minnesota - Luke Ridnour and Michael Beasley would provide them with some upgrade at the 1 and the 3, and inject them with some much-needed youth up front - with the aforementioned trade exception. Anyway, in a potential series between these two teams, I would expect LA to exorcise their demons and take down Dallas.
It's the other series that provides the real intrigue, at least for me. If Memphis were to match up with the Clippers, we might have one of the most intriguing and even series in years. While Mike Conley is not Chris Paul, he is good enough that he won't get burned off of every pick-and-roll in the way a slower, older point guard a la Derek Fisher might. Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo, Xavier Henry, and Jeremy Pargo would provide ample ammunition to fend off Chauncey Billups, Randy Foye, Mo Williams and Eric Bledsoe. Up front, Blake Griffin cannot contain Zach Randolph, and Randolph cannot contain Griffin. The Clippers are woefully thin at center. When - not if - DeAndre Jordan gets in foul trouble, the Clippers will be seeing a lot of Brian Cook and Reggie Evans "protecting" Griffin's back, whereas the Grizzlies have Marc Gasol, and can lean on Dante Cummingham for quality minutes. However, it's on the wing where the Grizz have a true advantage over the Clips. While Caron Butler is a "nice" player, he will be overmatched by Rudy Gay, and Ryan Gomes will not be able to contain Sam Young. Finally, the Clippers are coached by Vinny del Negro, and I just don't trust him.
While "Lob City" will be fun to watch, it will probably be another year before they become a true contender (which will of course necessitate firing del Negro). As such, I would expect Memphis to advance to the Western Conference Finals to face the Los Angeles Lakers.
Only in a lockout-shortened season could a potential Western Conference Finals feature the 6 seed and the 8 seed. While the Lakers have the front court depth (McRoberts and Murphy provide them with big bodies to throw at Gasol and Randolph, and don't sleep on Derrick Caracter coming back to provide them with a 5th big man by the playoffs) to contend with the Grizzlies, it will really come down to the Lakers ability to defend a speedy point guard like Conley, and a smooth three-man like Rudy Gay for them to make it back to the NBA Finals.
In a year which started off with Commissioner David Stern meddling with a potential three-team trade to the point where at least four franchises were detrimentally affected (LA Lakers, New Orleans Hornets, Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics) I can absolutely see it ending with Czar Stern rigging the Western Conference Finals to ensure that the NBA Finals ratings are high with a potential Los Angeles - Chicago or Los Angeles - Miami series, rather than having to worry about filling FedEx Forum in Memphis.
The NBA, where shady Commissioners happens!
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