2012 Western Conference Preview

15. Phoenix Suns: 25-57. Apparently the Suns were working hard to complete a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder to acquire shooting guard James Harden. In the end, the Rockets were able to provide OKC with the best offer, and as a result the Suns have lost out on the one player they were truly honing in on when they will have cap space available next summer. The Suns were active this summer, as they reshuffled the majority of their roster. While players such as Marcin Gortat and Jared Dudley will be returning, the best player in their franchise history is now wearing a Lakers uniform. Additionally, the loss of Robin Lopez (via trade with New Orleans) and Channing Frye (who is battling a heart issue) means the Suns will be super-thin up front. The Suns were able to bring back Goran Dragic, who should thrive in the role as the starting point guard, and signed the thus-far underwhelming Michael Beasley to a three-year contract. In the end, this team is missing too many attributes of a quality organization (rebounding, shooters and notable a strong defensive presence) to expect much. While they may have some players who put up some gaudy fantasy statistics (I'm looking at you Goran!) they will be pretty putrid on the court, and the once proud franchise - which was a regular playoff contender with Nash in his prime - will regress during the first year of a true rebuilding program.

14. Sacramento Kings: 29-53. I am aware that the Kings have some nice young talent (namely up front with DeMarcus Cousins and Thomas Robinson and at point guard with Isaiah Thomas) and an underrated head coach (Keith Smart). However, the rest of their team is an absolute mess, and it seems that they have wasted some high draft picks in recent years on players who either a. showed great potential and athleticism in college (Tyreke Evans) or b. we all knew were not going to pan out (Jimmer Ferdette). They are carrying some crappy contracts with the likes of Francisco Garcia and Travis Outlaw on the books for roughly a combined $10 million this season. Add to that the fact that the just signed Marcus Thornton and Jason Thompson to long deals, and it is unclear what the Kings are doing. Cousins is good enough to carry this team to a number of wins on his own, and I believe that Thomas, Thornton and Robinson will help make this squad better in the long run. But, unless the Kings are able to move players like Evans and Ferdette for a genuine solution on the wing, this team will be experiencing a lot of losing for years to come.

13. Houston Rockets: 32-50. As of Saturday, I had Houston winning around 25 games. But, factoring in the acquisition of James Harden as well as the defensive presence that Omer Asik should bring on a nightly basis, I believe this team is capable of eeking out somewhere between 30 and 34 wins this year. The Jeremy Lin signing was somewhat of a head-scratcher. The Rockets had not one, but two point guards who were eminently capable of manning the reigns of the offense in Goran Dragic and Kyle Lowry. But, they let the former go via free agency, and traded the later to Toronto for a draft pick (which they later sent to OKC for the rights to James Harden.) The Rockets are different from the Kings in two very important ways: one, they have a vision for their future (namely, to build around Harden and Lin in the back court, with Asik and their glut of forwards representing the future of their front court) and two, they are not burdened by any heavy contracts or poor draft picks for the coming years. A lot depends on what Kevin McHale is able to get out of his young players (Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Royce White and Terrence Jones) and whether Chandler Parsons is able to build on his late-season momentum from last year. I imagine the Rockets will continue to be active on the trade market, and wouldn't be surprised to see them land another big name, with the hope of building a playoff contender (would a package of Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones and Chandler Parsons and Minnesota's First Round Pick in 2013 be enough to land Pau Gasol?). In the short-term, I cannot see this team winning more than 34 games this season, and think it is fair to say that while Darryl Morey is not yet done with his plan to rebuild the Rockets, his vision is beginning to take shape.

12. Portland Trailblazers: 34-48. This projected record is based solely on LaMarcus Aldridge. If he misses more than 15 games for whatever reason, I think the 'Blazers are likely going to finish in the cellar of the Western Conference. While Damian Lillard seems ready for the professional game, I am not sure I can say the same about Meyers Leonard - the rookie out of Illinois. I thought Portland vastly overpaid for Nicolas Batum, and it looks as though Wesley Matthews has reached his ceiling (and still has roughly $21 million left on a contract that runs through 2015.) Nevertheless, new coach Terry Stotts is well-respected around the league, and was the lead assistant on the Dallas Mavericks 2010-2011 Championship team. Additionally, with a lot of turnover from last season and notably chucker Jamal Crawford no longer in Rip City, I imagine Aldridge will see more touches on offense, and should be able to surpass 24 points per game. If the Trailblazers are able to stay solid at home - where they play in front of one of the most rabid fan bases in all of sports - they should be able to win more than 30 games. If Aldridge misses significant time, and/or the rookies fail to produce as expected, this team might not win 25 games.

11. New Orleans Hornets: 36-46. Outside of Los Angeles and Brooklyn, New Orleans had perhaps the most active off-season. They drafted Anthony Davis with the first overall selection, and later named Austin Rivers out of Duke. They traded Gustavo Ayon for Ryan Anderson, and bring in Robin Lopez to shore up the front court. Finally, they resigned Eric Gordon to a max-offer sheet, and it seems the Hornets are shoring up the foundation of their team for the future. While Davis and Rivers (particularly the later) will experience the growing pains of playing in the NBA rather than the NCAA, head coach Monty Williams should be able to coach them enough to maximize their talents. Ryan Anderson and Robin Lopez bring veteran voices to the locker room, and Eric Gordon - if healthy - should provide a large scoring punch at the starting shooting guard position. The most interesting thing about the Hornets will be how they decide to shuffle their front court minutes. With Lopez, Davis and Anderson, the Hornets could start one of the largest front courts in the Association. However, in a more likely scenario, they will bring Lopez off the bench to spell both Davis and Anderson, and stagger minutes on the wing between Xavier Henry, Al-Farouq Aminu, Roger Mason. Hakim Warrick and Greivis Vasquez. While contending for a playoff spot is a tall order for such a young team, the Hornets will beat a lot of the teams ranked ahead of them, and will be a tough match up for virtually everyone they play. In the end, they will fall short of the second season, but, with the addition of even more young talent via the 2013 draft and perhaps an active off-season in 2013 (when they will have the ability to sign another player to a max deal) this team is primed to become a force in the Southwestern Division.

10. Dallas Mavericks: 40-42. This is about the point where we start talking about playoff contenders. With a healthy Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks are capable of winning between 44 and 48 games. That is assuming everyone else (including some stiffs like Chris Kaman and Elton Brand) played a full season. While the Mavericks were able to bring in some mid-level talent in O.J. Mayo, Darren Collison and the aforementioned former Clipper-tandem, Mark Cuban is clearly positioning his franchise with an eye towards the future. Nowitzki will miss the first few weeks of the season as he recovers from a leg injury, and it is unclear whether the Kaman-Brand-Marion troika can make up for his absence. A lot will also depend on whether the young guys (Dominique Jones, Rodrigue Beaubois and Jared Cunningham) can make a discernible impact, as the back court lacks the scoring punch and stewardship it had during the Jason Terry-Jason Kidd- J.J. Barea years. At the end of the day, the Mavericks will be lucky to make it above .500, but never count out Nowitzki or Rick Carlisle. Those two are both consummate professionals, and find a way to win.

9. Minnesota Timberwolves: 41-41. Were it not for the recent news that Kevin Love will likely miss the first month of the season, and the fact that Ricky Rubio is likely out until February or March, I would have had the Timberwolves ranked ahead of the Clippers on this list. The Timberwolves raided Russia this summer, (coming away with Andrei Kirilenko, Alexey Shved, Ivan Drago, Ivan Drago's trainer and a year's supply of PEDs) and also signed Brandon Roy and traded for Chase Budinger to shore up some scoring on the wing. It remains to be seen what Roy has left in the tank and whether Shved's success in Europe can translate to the NBA. But, with Kirilenko and Derrick Williams manning the fort until Love returns, it is safe to say that this team will be okay in the interim. I expect to see Nikola Pekovic continue to improve upon his breakout season, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him score upwards of 16 points per game. Luke Ridnour and Barea bring veteran leadership to the point guard position, and hopefully will play well enough in Rubio's absence to keep the team above .500. I want to pencil Minnesota in for a playoff spot, but with injuries to their top two players, and a healthy squad in Oakland and Salt Lake City, it is hard to see where the Timberwolves fit in.

8. Golden State Warriors: 42-40. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but the Warriors have the look of a playoff team, and a tough out in the first round (I am really hoping they end up squaring off with the Thunder in the first round, as that might be the most watchable seven-game series since the Chicago-Boston thriller in 2009.) This projected record is based COMPLETELY on the health of Steph Curry, David Lee and Andrew Bogut. If those players can combine to play at least 160 games, this team is going to the playoffs. Bogut should anchor a much-improved defense, and offset the liability of Lee on that end of the court. Klay Thompson is set to make the jump to a premier scorer at the shooting guard position, and rookie Harrison Barnes should thrive off of Curry's play-making skills. The second unit (Jefferson-Jack-Landry-Rush-Ezeli) should be one of the better bench mobs in the game, and should be able to keep most games close while the starters rest. Success in Oakland ultimately comes down to whether Andrew Bogut can protect the rim like he did in Milwaukee, and if he is able to remain healthy (as that has not been the case over the last two to three seasons.) It is about time that the Warriors focused on the defensive end, and with Bogut in tow, Mark Jackson should be able to coax the other players (namely Lee and Curry) to focus their attention on that end of the floor. If the Warriors continue to give up 105 points per night, they will be on the outside looking in. But, if they are able to stay healthy, improve on defense and incorporate their younger players in to the offense, Golden State stands the chance of making the playoffs and being a tough out for whomever they draw in the first round.

7. Utah Jazz: 44-38. The Utah Jazz currently suffer from a spoil of riches up front. They will likely start Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap alongside Marvin Williams in the front court, which means that youngsters Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors will come off the bench. However, the Jazz are likely to  be active in the trade market, as both Jefferson and Millsap are free agents after this season, which means that Kanter and Favors could both find themselves in the starting lineup by February. I expect both of these young big man to make major leaps this season. I also expect Gordon Hayward to start stretching defenses, which will create space for the young big men, and allow Alec Burks to contribute offensively. The biggest hole for this team is the starting point guard position. Currently, the Jazz employ the pu-pu platter of point guards in Earl Watson, Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye. Foye is probably the most talented of the bunch, and best suited to lead this offense with Burks at the shooting guard position. Ty Corbin did one hell of a job leading this team to the playoffs next year, and I expect him to guide this squad to the playoffs again this year. However, anytime you are relying so heavily on young players - as Corbin will be forced to do - to succeed in the NBA, you are taking a major chance. If the young guys don’t pan out this season, the Mavericks or Timberwolves will likely take this spot from them. But, if everything comes together, the young nucleus that Utah has been able to build in the post-Deron Williams era, should be enough to propel them to a first round match up with one of the division winners.

6. Memphis Grizzlies: 45-37. Unless the new ownership is either willing to pay the luxury tax, or the front office is able to get creative by jettisoning Rudy Gay or Zach Randolph, I am afraid we are looking at the upper limit of what this franchise will be able to do over the next few years. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are fantastic building blocks, and both showed significant improvement last season. The problem is two-fold: for starters, Gay and Randolph have barely played with one another, so it is difficult to envision what this franchise looks like as presently constructed. Furthermore, the Grizzlies might be even worse than the Jazz when it comes to scoring from beyond the three-point line, which significantly limits their offense. On the bright side of things, the Grizzlies still have a very strong starting five, and some significant talent coming off the bench (namely Marreese Speights, Darrell Arthur and Jerryd Bayless.) I expect the Grizzlies to be good, but not great. They will likely see Gay and Randolph miss some significant time, but that has been the case over the past two seasons, and somehow they were able to thrive in the absence of both. They are clearly a playoff team, but their seed will be largely determined by their health. Expect Memphis to play lock down defense - particularly on the perimeter where Tony Allen and Mike Conley should make opposing guards really work for points - and score with aplomb inside. But, don't expect too much, as the Grizzlies' shooting deficiencies and health concerns will prevent them from finishing with a strong enough record to host a first round playoff series.

5. Los Angeles Clippers: 47-35. This is a make-or-break year for the Clippers. With Chris Paul hitting unrestricted free agency next summer, the Clippers need to prove that the surrounding cast, headlined by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, are able to win enough to keep him on Los Angeles' "other team." I don't love what the Clippers did in the off-season. Grant Hill is 40, and has little left in the tank. Jamaal Crawford is a volume scorer, and likely won't get the touches necessary to placate his mercurial personality. Chauncey Billups is older too, and coming off a serious Achilles injury. However, Eric Bledsoe has shown flashes of brilliance in the pre-season, and should lead a bench, that, on paper looks good enough to hold - and perhaps extend - a lead when Paul and Griffin are riding the pine. Lamar Odom and Matt Barnes are going to be the key to that bench. If the former can regain some of his previous success in LA, and the later is able to continue to play aggressive defense and knock down the corner three, this team could easily win 50 games. However, I think 47 is a fair win total, as there are a number of question marks surrounding this team. Also, never count out the fact that Vinny Del Negro is still employed by the Clippers, and that he will be mercilessly out-coached on a nightly basis. Unless CP3 is able to truly take over the fourth quarter in every close game, this team is unlikely to host a first round playoff series.

4. San Antonio Spurs: 52-30. And now, for the hardest team to peg. The Spurs once again proved critics wrong last season, when they ended up with the best record in the Western Conference and nearly put the Thunder away, before losing four consecutive games to the eventual Western Conference Champions. The names on the back of the jersey are less important than the fact that the core of the franchise' success over the past decade will be returning this season, and that the best coach in the Association will continue to walk the sidelines for the Spurs. Kawhi Leonard should be able to build off his late-season momentum to become more of a featured player in the offense, and Tiago Splitter is likely to improve upon a fairly decent 2011-2012 campaign. As always, the big question mark will be health. Timmy is 36 years old, Manu is already battling an injury, Tony Parker nearly lost an eye this summer in a bar fight, and Stephen Jackson is on the wrong side of 30. However, no one manages minutes like Pop, and I expect him to find the right balance between winning and preserving his players for the playoffs. Write the Spurs in for 50 wins, just don't expect too much out of them during the regular season.  

3. Denver Nuggets: 55-27. The trendy pick among many to finish with the best record in the Western Conference, the Nuggets were able to add Andre Iguodala to an already devastating offensive system. They have a strong stable of big man, all of whom are capable of either playing great, or stinking up the joint, and they are loaded on the wing and in the back court with shooters (Gallinari and Evan Fournier), defenders (Wilson Chandler, Corey Brewer and the aforementioned Iguodala) and creators (Ty Lawson and the ageless wonder, Andre Miller). The Nuggets also play home games in one of the most difficult places to visit due to the altitude, and should run most teams ragged when they visit Denver. While I don't think they have the chops to go deep in the playoffs - their lack of a go-to big man will come to haunt them against teams like Memphis or either Los Angeles franchise - they do have the personnel to win in excess of 50 games and be one of the must-watch teams on NBA League Pass. Never count out George Karl to get the most out of his team, and be prepared for a lot of small lineups featuring three guards, along with Gallinari and Kenneth "The Manimal" Farried up front. The Nuggets will be a lot of fun this season and fans in the Mile High City are already looking back on the Carmelo Anthony trade as a blessing in disguise.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: 57-25. This projection is based on two things: the health of their core (namely Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Dwight Howard) and their ability to develop chemistry as the season progresses. No doubt, the Lakers will struggle from the outset, as they try to find their identity. In a perfect world, Bryant would defer to Nash, who would run high screen-and-roll plays with Pau Gasol, and pick-and-rolls with Howard. This would leave Bryant as a safety valve on offense and save his legs for the other end, where he will be expected to continue to contribute (particularly given Nash' history of playing "matador defense.") Metta World Peace will continue to be the fifth option on offense, and should see a lot of open looks for the corner three with the Maestro (Nash) orchestrating the newly instituted Princeton offense in Los Angeles. While others are particularly down on the reserves, I feel they are a massive upgrade from the subs that logged significant minutes for the Lakers last season. Steve Blake is what he is, a large point guard who can shoot, but is not a great creator. Jodie Meeks and Antawn Jamison will both be able to stretch the defense, and should get more open looks than they are used to getting (particularly if they share the court with either of the Lakers' bigs and Steve Nash), and Jordan Hill showed late last season that perhaps there was some untapped potential in the former lottery pick. While the Lakers will struggle to find their groove, they should see a late-season run similar to what the Miami Heat were able to do in 2010-2011 when they formed their big three. Mike Brown will benefit from having former Washington Wizards coach, Eddie Jordan, on his staff, and having Nash as his on-court coach. While I expect the Lakers to contend for the Larry O'Brien trophy, I do not expect them to finish with the West's best record.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 60-22. Despite losing the league's best sixth man in James Harden, I fully expect Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka to build off of their Olympic experience to propel this team to 60 or more wins. Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison form a strong two-headed monster in the middle, and Thabo Sefolosha, Reggie Jackson and the now-healthy Eric Maynor should provide strong defense in the back court, and help Durant and Westbrook in the scoring department. I am particularly interested to see what role Perry Jones III and Tyler Lamb will play for the Thunder. While I don't expect either to be major contributors right off the bat, I imagine that by the All-Star Break both players will be seeing significant minutes, particularly if they can stretch the defense with their shooting and play above-average defense on the front line. Add to this a potent scorer and shooter in the newly-acquired Kevin Martin, and the Thunder should be one of the deadliest teams on offense. Westbrook and particularly Durant will have to improve on defense if this team is going to hold up in the playoffs, as the two best defenders are unlikely to share much court time with one another (Collison and Perkins are the team's best defenders. Serge Ibaka is great at protecting the rim, but too often he leaves his man to provide the spectacular block, and is inconsistent on the defensive glass). If the Thunder are able to incorporate K. Martin, Jones III and Lamb in to the offense, and can get productive minutes from Maynor and R. Jackson, they will remain the team to beat in the Western Conference, and should finish the season with the best record in the West.