This off-season saw a lot of changes in the NBA. From Dwight Howard and Steve Nash teaming up in Los Angeles, to the new Brooklyn Nets acquiring Joe Johnson. Perhaps the biggest change will be felt in Chicago, where the Bulls will be without their star point guard Derrick Rose until at least late-February or early-March.
As always, how the standings play out depends a lot upon health. If, for instance, the Hawks lose Josh Smith or Al Horford to injury for a significant amount of time, they are toast. The same goes for teams like the Pacers (with Roy Hibbert), the Nets (with Deron Williams) and the 76ers (with oft-injured big man, Andrew Bynum). So, without further adieu, here is my best guess at how the Eastern Conference will end up come April.
15. Charlotte Bobcats: 18-64. The Bobcats were historically bad last season. Their biggest move during the off-season was to jettison Corey Maggette to the Pistons in exchange for Ben Gordon and a future first round pick. While they will not miss Maggette's ball-hogging on the wing, Gordon provides little upgrade for a team bereft of scoring punch. The Bobcats will trot out one of the worst starting lineups in NBA history (Brendan Haywood, Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Ben Gordon and Ramon Sessions) and will struggle to score over 85 points on a nightly basis. They will likely beat some good teams who are playing in "The Gem of the South" on a back-to-back road trip, but will likely not crack twenty wins. The future is very bleak in Charlotte, as their young players are not only raw, but show little upside potential on the offensive end. In a league that feeds on points, the Bobcats will be bad for a while.
14. Orlando Magic: 21-61. Obviously the Magic are going to miss Dwight Howard in the middle. His presence cannot be replicated. Unlike baseball, where general managers have been able to succeed, by reloading with multiple "bit" players even after losing top-shelf talent, the NBA is a different animal. It is a league that thrives on star talent. And, when a team loses perhaps one of the three best players in the game, they are naturally going to struggle the following season. To compound things, the Magic also let sharp-shooting big man Ryan Anderson go (sending him to New Orleans in a sign-and-trade for Gustavo Ayon) in a move that boggles the mind. They resigned Jameer Nelson in another move that makes little basketball sense (why re-up with a washed up point guard when you are trying to reload with young talent?) The Magic will be relying on players like Glen Davis, Hedo Turkoglu and J.J. Reddick to generate most of their offense. That last sentence probably made most Orlando fans throw up in their mouth. The hope is that in a few years the Magic are able to rid themselves on their veteran players - and their burdensome contracts - and rebuild with young talent.
13. Cleveland Cavaliers: 28-54. While Dion Waiters was a surprise pick for the Cavaliers, the future is bright in Cleveland. They are building a talented core, beginning with dynamic point guard Kyrie Irving, forward Tristan Thompson, and the aforementioned Waiters. Anderson Varejao provides veteran stability in the middle, and strong leadership in the locker room. While the Cavaliers will not be good this year, they will be better, and, with another high draft pick in this years draft, they could be a playoff team by the 2013-2014 season.
12. Washington Wizards: 30-52. John Wall's injury will hurt the Wizards chances of making the playoffs this year, but the addition of Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Nene for an entire season will make this team stronger in the short term. While those off-season additions hamstring Washington's ability to build a contender around Wall, they should be a stronger defensive unit in the short term. And with young players like Trevor Booker, Jan Vessely, and Chris Singleton, the hope is that the Wizards can improve from within. With teams like Orlando and Charlotte in their division, the Wizards should be able to get some easy wins, but this team will be well under .500 unless John Wall takes a major step.
11. Detroit Pistons: 35-47. The Pistons are getting better from within (since Detroit is not a true destination for free agents, this is the best the Pistons can do for now) with stud big-man Greg Monroe and guard Brandon Knight, who, in his first season, showed flashes of a star in the making. The addition of Andre Drummond via the draft will likely not pay dividends this season, but the Pistons are taking the long view, hoping that in another year or two they can move in to the middle-tier of teams fighting for a playoff spot. The Pistons are in dire need of moving some of their glut of combo-forwards to nab a scoring guard who can better complement Brandon Knight than the thus-far underachieving Rodney Stuckey. The Pistons will be a tough team on a nightly basis, but ultimately will fall short of the playoffs.
10. Toronto Raptors: 38-44. Dwayne Casey is already beginning to make his imprimatur with this young Raptors team by emphasizing defense. While Andrea Bargnani will never be confused with a bruising big man, he can score from outside, and with other bigs, like Ed Davis, and rookie Jonas Valanciunas, protecting the rim, and crashing the boards, Toronto's front-court is beginning to take shape. The addition of Kyle Lowry should also pay dividends on the defensive end, and if his three point shooting from last season holds up, the offensive end as well. This will be a make-or-break year for DeMar DeRozan, who has yet to impress in the "416", and Landry Fields and Terrence Ross will be fighting him for minutes on the wing. The Raptors will compete for the 8-seed in the playoffs, but likely miss out if Derrick Rose returns to full health for the last 20 or so games.
9. Milwaukee Bucks: 40-42. I would rank the Bucks higher if I knew what they were doing up front. They have a dynamic back-court with Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, but with the exception of Ersan Ilysasova (and perhaps rookie John Henson), they are pretty devoid of talent up front. Scott Skiles will push this team nightly, but, with the loss of Andrew Bogut in the middle (via the Monta Ellis trade last season he will have to make the transition from a defense-first organization to a
8. Chicago Bulls: 42-40. The aforementioned injury to Derrick Rose - sustained in Game 1 of the First Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs last year - will shape the season for the Bulls, whether they like it or not. Chicago also had to remake their roster on the fly, losing contributors like Omer Asik, Ronnie Brewer, and C.J. Watson, and replacing them with the likes of Nazr Mohammed, Marco Belinelli and Nate Robinson. If the Bulls can play .500 ball without Rose, stay true to the defensive system that Tom Thibodeau has installed in Chicago, and get solid shooting out of their wing players, they will be in playoff contention throughout the season. With Rose, they are a scary playoff team to any higher seed, but for now, they are at best the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference.
7. Philadelphia 76ers: 44-38. This forecast depends entirely upon Andrew Bynum's health. As of now, he is still dealing with knee injuries, the same issue that has plagued him throughout his career. Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner will be expected to produce a lot, particularly with Andre Iguodala now wearing a Nuggets jersey. Additionally, Thaddeus Young will be leaned on for big minutes, be it at the small forward position, or in small-ball lineups as a face-up four man. Doug Collins tends to get the most out of his players, and he also has a way of maximizing his team's defensive potential. However, in the past, Collins' teams have tended to tune him out after three to four years. With a healthy Andrew Bynum, an improved Holiday-Turner tandem, and a team engaged to what Collins is preaching, this team could win 50 games. But, given the uncertainty of all of those factors, 44 wins and the seventh seed seems about right for this squad.
6. New York Knicks: 45-37. This is the classic style over substance team. Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire were supposed to be the dynamic duo in Gotham, but since coming over from Denver, Anthony's presence on the Knicks has not panned out as hoped. Their brief flirtation with "Linsanity" was a cute story but ultimately not sustainable, as the Knicks chose to import Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, and all the AARP benefits available, rather than re-signing Lin, and the productive (and under-the-radar helpful) Josh Harrelson. They did re-up J.R. Smith and Steve Novak, which will hep on the offensive end, but this team's success will be predicated on what they can do on the other end. If Tyson Chandler can replicate his defensive presence from last season, the Knicks should be alright. However, having a huge lineup of Chandler, Stoudemire and Anthony up front does not make sense. The Knicks are better off bringing Stoudemire off the bench in the role of a sixth man, and starting Anthony at power forward (something that will likely happen anyway, since Amar'e is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season with an injury.) The Knicks back-court will routinely get lit up by speedy point guards, but the team should be formidable enough to nab the sixth seed with around 44-47 wins on the season.
5. Brooklyn Nets: 47-35. While the Brooklyn Nets spending spree this summer was about as reckless as driving drunk, the short-term benefits will be felt with a massive improvement on the court. In addition to adding Joe Johnson to the back-court with Deron Williams, the Nets will have a healthy Brook Lopez (despite his paltry rebound-rate) and hopefully a strong bench with Marshon Brooks (now playing in a a sixth man role), C.J. Watson (playing back-up to Williams), and Mirza Teletovic (providing some shooting depth in the front-court). The Nets will get pounded on the boards on a nightly basis, as Lopez and Humphries lack the skills to clear missed shots, and the two provide absolutely no protection at the rim, meaning the Nets will have to score a lot to win games. But, with two all stars in Williams and Johnson, the Nets should be good enough to compete on a nightly basis, and they should get the five seed by virtue of elimination rather than anything else. However, if Williams misses a long stretch of games, the Nets could be in for another disaster season.
4. Atlanta Hawks: 49-33. Yes, those Hawks. The same team that traded Joe Johnson for expiring contracts, and moved Marvin Williams to Utah for Devin Harris. The Hawks may have lost a lot of names, but they retained their two best players in Al Horford and Josh Smith. Surrounding Horford and Smith with proven shooters in Kyle Korver and Anthony Morrow, along with Lou Williams and Anthony Tolliver, will stretch defenses out to the three point line, and should allow for either Devin Harris or Jeff Teague to get in to the lane and draw fouls on opposing defenders. Not only do the Hawks have a bright future with a lot of money coming off their books in the next 18 months, but their present is equally bright, as they should be able to stay competitive, and maybe even win 50 games despite losing 40% of their starting lineup.
3. Boston Celtics: 54-28. This is perhaps the deepest team the Celtics have run out since the "Big Three" came together in 2007. And, while the "Big Three" may be no more, with Ray Allen having signed with the Miami Heat in the off-season, the Celtics go at least two deep at every position. Rajon Rondo is due for a huge season (I am predicting 16 points, 12 assists and 5 rebounds per game) and along with Courtney Lee, Avery Bradley and Jason Terry, will form the deepest and most talented back-court in the NBA. Up front, Pierce and Garnett are joined by Brandon Bass, a now-healthy Jeff Green and newcomers Fab Melo and Jared Sullinger. The Celtics depth, commitment to defense, and swagger should allow them to comfortably land a top-3 seed in the East. While I believe they are a Championship-caliber team, I imagine they will deal with some injuries over the course of the season - understandable for an aging team - which will likely prevent them from passing the next two teams on this list.
2. Indiana Pacers: 56-26. The Pacers will benefit from a weak division (particularly so due to the injury to Derrick Rose), roster continuity, and an understanding of what they represent. While the Pacers do not have a true All-Star on their roster, they are strong up front, with Roy Hibbert, David West, and Danny Granger, as well as in the back-court with George Hill and the rapidly improving Paul George. Gerald Green, Tyler Hansborough and D.J. Augustin will form the core of a fairly potent second unit and the entire team should benefit from a long playoff run last season. While I still do not believe that the Pacers have the personnel to compete with either Miami or Boston in the post-season, during the regular season I fully expect Indiana to surpass 50 wins and finish with the second seed.
1. Miami Heat: 64-18. Enough has been said about the off-season acquisitions the Heat made (namely Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis) as well as how Dwyane Wade is recovering from injury faster than expected. However, what is really telling, and perhaps will lead directly to future success for Miami is the notion of a "position-less" roster, wherein Chris Bosh will be manning the middle, and LeBron James will be playing at the four, as a "point forward." While Bosh will struggle to guard the Bynums, Howards and Hibberts of the league, he will probably fare quite well against other true centers, and the tandem of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on the wing will make it hard for any opposing player to penetrate the Miami defense. LeBron James should have another monster season, and is likely in line for yet another MVP award. I fully expect to see Miami back in the NBA Finals, but before making that prediction, I will have to see how they deal with any injuries, and whether they are able to deal with the malaise that often sets in after a team has climbed to the top of the mountain.
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